CDS Daily brief (26.01.23) | CDS comments on key events
- Опубліковано: CDS
- Категорія: DailyBrief
Snapshot of the day:
- 11 people died, and 11 more were injured today due to a massive Russian missile and drone attack. 47 missiles out of 55 were shot down by the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces, 20 of them in Kyiv area; three of the four Kh-59 guided air missiles did not reach their targets. 24 UAVs were shot down at night.
- Several energy infrastructure facilities were damaged. The most challenging situation with electricity supply is in Kyiv, Odesa and Vinnytsia Oblasts.
- PACE adopted a decision on the joint responsibility of the Russian Federation and Belarus authorities for military aggression against Ukraine
- The Russian command continues the implementation of the first stage of the offensive operation in the eastern and southern operational zones with a series of attacks to restrain the Defense Forces in the Bakhmut, Vuhledar and Orikhiv areas. This creates conditions for the transition to the second stage of the operation – the offensive in the eastern operational zone.
- Possible operation situation developments: the enemy will try to surround/push out the Defense Forces in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas and block Siversk from the south; to “cut” the Vuhledar ledge, simultaneously advancing on both sides of the M04-E50 road; having completed the first stage, the enemy would likely proceed to the offensive in the Lyman direction with simultaneous strikes from Kreminna and Svatove.
- Sea: On January 25, the Turkish civilian ship “Tuzla”, which had been in the port of Kherson since the beginning of the aggression, was damaged due to an attack by Russian troops. This is the first case of Russians attacking vessels flying the Turkish flag.
- In the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea, the enemy is conducting preparatory measures for the next wave of mobilization.
- The US has designated the Wagner Group PMC as a significant transnational criminal organization, while the Russian Parliament is set to criminalize “discrediting” combatants, including the Wagner Group.
- The inaugural meeting of the Steering Committee of the Ukraine Multi-agency Donor Coordination Platform has been held.
- The EU worked out a plan to channel at least €33.8 billion of the frozen Russian assets to reconstruct Ukraine. The Ukrainian government assesses the damage caused to Ukraine due to the war (excluding damage caused between 2014 and 2022) at more than $700 billion.
- Switzerland unblocks certain defense materials delivery to Ukraine.
- Germany will fund 10,000 Starlinks satellite terminals for Ukraine. The Bayraktar company has donated two Bayraktar TB2 UAVs.
- Russia dismantles remnants of Russia’s free media (“Meduza”) and human rights organizations (Moscow’s Helsinki Group and the Sakharov Center).
For the second day in a row, Russia continues massive attacks on civilian infrastructure and residential areas of Ukraine.
Eleven people died today in Ukraine from a massive Russian missile and drone attack. Another 11 people were injured, said Alexander Khorunzhiy, a spokesman for the State Emergency Service. Rockets and drones fell in 11 Oblasts, and 35 buildings were damaged. The main attack targeted Kyiv Oblast.
47 missiles out of 55 were shot down by the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces, said Commander-in- Chief Valery Zaluzhny. “The enemy launched 55 air and sea-based missiles (Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh- 47 “Dagger”, “Kalibr”, Kh-59) from Tu-95, Su-35, MiG-31K aircraft and ships from the Black Sea. Air defense forces destroyed 47 cruise missiles, 20 of them in the area of the capital. In addition, three of the four Kh-59 guided air missiles did not reach their targets.”
Today’s missile strike was preceded by a night attack by kamikaze drones. According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 24 UAVs were shot down.
In Kyiv, a 55-year-old man died due to the fall of rocket parts. Two more were wounded. An energy facility has been hit in the Kyiv Oblast, Kyiv Oblast Military Administration (OMA) reports. In addition, civil infrastructure objects, private homes and multi-storey buildings were damaged. At night, about 15 enemy UAVs were shot down over Kyiv Oblast. Due to the night attack of drones on Kyiv Oblast, 5 residential buildings and 7 other objects and structures were damaged. More than 40 cars were mutilated. No victims were reported, said Andriy Nebytov, head of the Kyiv Oblast National Police.
As a result of a massive missile attack, two energy infrastructure facilities in Odesa Oblast were damaged, reports the head of Odesa OMA Maksym Marchenko.
Vinnytsia OMA confirmed the impact of enemy missiles; there are no casualties.
Three people were killed and 7 more injured due to the night shelling of critical infrastructure in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast (the Russian military launched 2 missile strikes (preliminary, with S-300 missiles). During today’s large-scale attack, the enemy targeted the same facility while a search and rescue operation was underway. Information on the victims is being clarified. Yesterday afternoon, the Russians launched a missile attack on Zaporizhzhia. A private house was destroyed. A 34-year-old resident, a person with a disability, died under its rubble.
Two people died, and at least one person was injured due to the Russian shelling of Ocheretyne village in Donetsk Oblast. Three private houses were destroyed, reported the head of Donetsk OMA, Pavlo Kyrylenko. For the fourth time since the full-scale invasion, the Russians shelled the hospital in Ivanivka near Kramatorsk. There were 20 patients there; no one was injured. 17 houses were damaged in Vuhledar, 8 in Bohoyavlenka. 1 killed and 1 wounded were reported in Bakhmut, 4 wounded in Paraskoviivka.
Russian occupiers shelled the territory of Kherson Oblast 36 times during the past day; 2 civilians were killed and 5 wounded. Houses were damaged in Kherson.
The Russians fired mortars and MLRS at the Ochakiv community, Mykolayiv Oblast, yesterday. No casualties were reported.
The enemy continued shelling the border areas of the Kupyansk, Chuhuyiv and Kharkiv districts of Kharkiv Oblast. Residential buildings were damaged.
Ukrainian Air defense forces again disrupted the enemy’s plans during a nighttime drone attack and a morning mass rocket attack; the situation in the power system is under control, emphasized Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in Telegram. “Unfortunately, the substations were hit. But the situation in the power system remains under control,” he said.
Due to today’s massive attack on energy infrastructure, the most challenging situation with electricity supply is in Kyiv, Odesa and Vinnytsia Oblasts. As a result, emergency shutdowns have been introduced, Minister of Energy Herman Galushchenko reported.
In Odesa, the energy supply to all hospitals, boiler houses, pumping stations and other critical infrastructure of the city has been restored. However, the situation remains very difficult, so emergency power outages will continue to be applied in Odesa, DTEK energy company reported. They may last for several days. In addition, there were problems with the water supply.
Kyiv returned to the scheduled blackouts because energy workers managed to stabilize the operation of the power system after the last air attack, Kyiv Military Administration reported.
Justice for war crimes
PACE adopted a decision on the joint responsibility of the Russian Federation and Belarus authorities for military aggression against Ukraine, reports Ukrinform. Currently, the International Criminal Court does not have jurisdiction over the crime of aggression against Ukraine. Also, there is still no other international criminal tribunal competent to prosecute and punish this crime. Therefore, the PACE calls on the member states and observer states of the Council of Europe “to create a special international criminal tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine, which should be approved and supported by as many states and international organizations as possible, in particular by the UN General Assembly.”
Representatives of 20 countries gathered in Prague on January 26 at a meeting of the Main Group on the creation of a special tribunal to investigate the crime of aggression against Ukraine, Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba announced on Twitter.
Pensions and other payments to pensioners who do not have a Russian passport have been suspended in occupied Mariupol starting January 1. There are fights in queues at humanitarian aid points; Petro Andryushchenko, an adviser to the Mariupol mayor, published a corresponding video on his Telegram channel. According to him, the Russian occupation authorities leave people no choice: “a [Russian] passport or starvation.” He noted that about 65,000 people of retirement age currently live in Mariupol. According to him, similar problems occur with other payments, including salaries. The situation is worsened by the shortage of available cash in the [Russia- installed or appropriated] banks. “You must queue at the ATM at 5 in the morning”.
The Russian command continues the implementation of the first stage of the offensive operation in the eastern and southern operational zones. It carries out a series of attacks to restrain the Defense Forces in the Bakhmut, Vuhledar and Orikhiv areas. This creates conditions for the transition to the second stage of the operation – the offensive in the eastern operational zone.
- Units of Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the Russian attacks in the areas of Chervonopopivka in Luhansk Oblast and Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Rozdolivka, Blahodatne, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Maryinka, Vuhledar and Pavlivka in Donetsk Oblast.
- The enemy began active offensive actions in the direction of Vuhledar. They attacked with a reinforced company of the 155th separate marines brigade in the direction of Mykilske – Vuhledar; and with two platoons with armored vehicles in the direction of Mykilske – northeast of Pavlivka. A reinforced company of the 40th separate marines brigade attacked in Shevchenkove – Novoukrayinka and advanced south of the crossing of Pavlivka – Prechystivka and Pavlivka – Novomayorske roads.
Enemy disposition: No changes in the disposition were noted.
Escalation indicators: None.
Possible operation situation developments:
- The enemy will try to surround/expel the Defense Forces in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas and block Siversk from the south;
- The Russian command will attempt to “cut” the Vuhledar ledge, simultaneously advancing on both sides of the M04-E50 road;
- Having completed the first stage, the enemy would likely proceed to the offensive in the Lyman direction with simultaneous strikes from Kreminna and Svatove.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:
- to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
- to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.
The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.
- There are 11 enemy warships at sea. 4 of them are cruise missiles Kalibr carriers, including one submarine. The possible number of missiles on board is up to 28 units.
- In the Sea of Azov, 2 patrol boats are stationed on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports to block the Azov coast.
- Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 26 sorties of enemy aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.
- On January 25, the Turkish civilian ship “Tuzla”, which had been in the port of Kherson since the beginning of the aggression, was damaged due to an attack by Russian troops. There was no crew on the ship. The ship’s hull and mechanisms on the upper deck received minor damage. Before this, there were no cases of the use of Russian weapons on vessels flying the Turkish flag.
- In the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea, the enemy is conducting preparatory measures for the next wave of mobilization. Thus, by January 29, all so-called state and private institutions must submit lists of persons exempt [from draft to military service] to military commissariats. The next mass mobilization wave is planned for the end of February. At the same time, starting February 1, all repair and construction work at “state” enterprises and institutions will be stopped, and all planned funds will be redirected to support armed aggression against Ukraine.
- The grain agreement, which is less than 60 days away from completion, has proven its viability, and the question of its extension is currently pending. This was stated by the Ambassador of Ukraine to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar. In this context, he noted that President Volodymyr Zelensky launched the “Grain From Ukraine” initiative in the development of this agreement. As a result of cooperation with the Turkish side, a lot of Ukrainian grain is processed in Turkey and then enters the markets of those countries that need grain products. He stressed that the amount of products transported through the grain corridor is less than what we would like because representatives of the aggressor country in the Joint Control Center are constantly trying to slow down the process of vessel inspections.
He noted that the work of the grain corridor is one of the priorities of cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey.
- The Agreement on the Black Sea Grain Corridor was extended for 120 days from November 19, 2022, under the decision taken by Turkey, the United Nations, the Russian Federation and Ukraine.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 26.01.23
Personnel – almost 123,860 people (+780)
Tanks – 3,175 (+14)
Armored combat vehicles – 6,334 (+27);
Artillery systems – 2,169 (+15);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 452 (+2); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 220 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 4,986 (+19); Aircraft – 292 (+2);
Helicopters – 282 (+1);
UAV operational and tactical level – 1,908 (+6); Intercepted cruise missiles – 749 (0);
Boats/ships – 18 (0).
International diplomatic aspect
Russia’s paramilitary Wagner Group [PMC], its head and other individuals and entities are sanctioned for various crimes and illegal activities in Ukraine, the Central African Republic, and Mali. The US has designated the Wagner Group as a significant transnational criminal organization. Meanwhile, the Russian Parliament’s Speaker instructed to urgently draft amendments on criminal liability for “discrediting” combatants, including Wagner Group.
The Multi-agency Donor Coordination Platform has been launched to support Ukraine’s repair, recovery, and reconstruction process in the short and long term. The Platform is aimed at fulfilling the pledges of the Conferences in Lugano, Berlin, and Paris. It will allow closer coordination between the donors and international financial organizations to ensure that support is provided coherently, transparently, and accountably. The first meeting brought together high-level officials from Ukraine, the EU, and G7, as well as international financial institutions.
The European Council’s Legal Service has worked out a mechanism of channeling at least €33.8 billion of Russian Central Bank assets for the reconstruction of Ukraine. The Ukrainian government estimates the damage caused to Ukraine as a result of the war exceeds $700 billion. The assessment doesn’t include the damage caused by the Russian aggression between February 2014 and February 2022. Since the all-out invasion, at least 64 large and medium-sized enterprises were damaged or destroyed, 84,300 units of agricultural machinery were damaged or looted, and almost 3,000 shops and 593 pharmacies have been damaged or destroyed.
Switzerland’s Federal Council “decided on a new provision with regard to the arms embargo. Switzerland can now grant exemptions from the arms embargo on demining equipment for use in Ukraine on a case-by-case basis.” It’s a good but insufficient step to support Ukraine’s legitimate right for self-defense because Ukraine badly needs Swiss-made ammunition, including for the Gepard anti-aircraft tank, which is clearly a defensive weapon.
Germany will fund the purchase of 10,000 Starlinks satellite terminals worth $21.8 million for Ukraine. It’s a critically important piece of equipment for both military and civilian needs. The Turkish Bayraktar company has donated two Bayraktar TB2 UAVs. Earlier, the company successfully conducted the second test of its indigenously designed and produced unmanned fighter aircraft Kızılelma, powered by a Ukrainian-made engine. The Kizilelma is designed to have a payload capacity of 1.5 metric tons, a range of 926 kilometers, and a fly time of five hours.
The US is ready for sanction relief if Russia withdraws its troops from the Ukrainian territory, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland said at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on “Countering Russian Aggression: Ukraine and Beyond.” Such signals had fallen on deaf years before the all-out invasion and new annexations; it is likely not to be met with enthusiasm now because it would cause a downfall of Putin and an instant eruption of instability inside Russia.
Russian prosecutors banned yet another independent Russian-language news site Meduza, calling it a security “threat” to the country. Earlier, the Moscow City Court liquidated the Moscow Helsinki Group, which has been operating since 1976, and the Moscow city’s authorities terminated the tenant’s agreement with the Sakharov Center, a museum and cultural center named after Nobel Prize awarded nuclear scientist and human rights activist Andrei Sakharov.
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