CDS Daily brief (27.01.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Russian forces continued shelling residential areas of Ukrainian cities.
• Ukraine managed to return a total of 106 civilians from Russian captivity.
• As a result of the 13th large-scale attack (Jan 27) on energy facilities, enemy missiles hit five high-voltage substations in the central, southern and southwestern regions of Ukraine.
• The law enforcement officers introduced charges against two more Russian soldiers who, during temporary Russia’s occupation of Chernihiv Oblast, kept 368 local residents in the school’s basement resulting in the death of 10 Ukrainians due to inhumane conditions of captivity.

Military:

• The Russian command continues the preparation for an offensive operation in the Lyman direction, trying to hide these intentions with active actions in the areas of Vuhledar, Orikhiv and Hulyaipole;
• The enemy’s attacks in the Zaporizhzhia direction are aimed at restraining the actions of the Defense Forces and preventing their shift to a counteroffensive.
• Analysis of the supply of tanks to the units of the Russian Armed Forces shows that they have, on average, 55% of combat vehicles of the assigned quantity.
• Possible operation situation developments: the Russian command will attempt to “cut” the Vuhledar ledge, simultaneously advancing on both sides of the M04-E50 road; the intensity of enemy air strikes using UAVs on the objects in the rear of Ukraine [outside of the frontlines] will decrease.

Sea:

• The hull of the first of eight Mark VI patrol boats planned for Ukraine has been built and delivered to the SAFE Boats shipyard in Tacoma (USA) for equipment.
• During the last week, 2-3 ships leave Odesa per day, which is the lowest indicator for the entire operation of the Grain Initiative. This indicator is due to the artificial blocking of the “grain corridor” by Russian inspectors in the Bosporus.

International:

• Ukraine honors the memory of millions of Holocaust victims, including 1.5 million Jews from the territory of contemporary Ukraine.
• Lockheed Martin stands ready to “meet the demand for its F-16 jets” in case there’s another breakthrough decision to send fighter jets to Kyiv after the historical move with tanks.

Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of January 27, 2023, 459 Ukrainian children died, and more than 917 were injured as a result of the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation, according to the official information of juvenile prosecutors.

Russian attacks

Russian forces continued shelling residential areas of Ukrainian cities.

• During January 26, law enforcement officers received 14 reports about the destruction of houses by enemy shelling in the Orihiv, Hulyaipole, Zaporizhzhia and Vasylivka districts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. In the afternoon of January 27, a fire broke out at an infrastructure facility in Zaporizhzhia due to enemy shelling; one person was injured.
• Two people died, and at least five were injured due to the shelling of the town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast. The shelling began around 9 a.m. January 27 and lasted for over an hour and a half. Dozens of houses, administrative and public services buildings, and cars were damaged. In addition, Avdiivka, Toretsk, Oleksandropillia and Bohoyavlenka were also under fire. In Avdiivka, the Russians shelled the central part of the city with artillery, and a few hours later they used “Grads” with cluster elements. There is no information about the victims. On January 26, 7 houses and 2 schools were damaged by shelling in Vuhledar. 2 people were reported dead in the district. 2 wounded civilians were reported in Bohoyavlenka and Bakhmut. The outskirts of Zvanivka came under shelling with phosphorus charges.
• The Russians fired mortars and grenade launchers at the Bilopilska and Velikopysarivska communities of Sumy Oblast. No victims were reported.
• On January 26, the enemy massively shelled Kupyansk (2 killed civilians), Kharkiv (1 wounded) and Chuhuyiv districts of Kharkiv Oblast. This morning, the occupiers attacked Kupyansk.
• In Mykolaiv Oblast, the enemy attacked along the coastal strip of the Ochakiv community. A residential building was destroyed in the Kutsurub community.
• At night, the Russians shelled the Myrivske community of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with MLRS. A shop, a bakery, and a beauty salon were damaged. Dozens of residential buildings and utility buildings, gas furnaces, and power lines were also impacted. No victims were reported.

POWs and civilians exchange

Ukraine managed to return a total of 106 civilians from Russian captivity, Darina Zarivna, the adviser to the head of the President’s Office, said in an interview with KyivPost. She stressed that according to international law, civilians as non-combatants should be returned without any conditions, without using them in the process of exchanging prisoners of war.

Energy

As a result of the 13th large-scale attack on energy facilities, enemy missiles hit five high-voltage substations in the central, southern and southwestern regions [of Ukraine], said Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal during the Cabinet of Ministers meeting. “Russian terrorists do not stop trying to destroy our energy system, deprive us of heat and light. This time, the enemy’s main target was high-voltage infrastructure. Air defense forces shot down most of the missiles. However, we have five high-voltage substations impacted in the central, southern and southwestern regions,” the head of government said.

As of 11:00, NAEC “Ukrenergo” activated emergency shutdowns in 10 Oblasts: Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Volyn, Lviv, Rivne. All because of a shortage of capacities and exceeding the limits.

Justice for war crimes

The law enforcement officers brought charges against two more Russian soldiers who, during temporary Russia’s occupation of Chernihiv Oblast, kept 368 local residents in the school’s basement resulting in the death of 10 Ukrainians. According to the investigation, during the temporary seizure of the village of Yahidne in Chernihiv Oblast, suspects (serving in military unit 55115 from the city of Kyzil of the Republic of Tyva) forcibly took and kept 368 people, including 69 children, in a school basement of 197 square meters from March 3 to March 31, 2022. The youngest child was one and a half months old, and the oldest hostage was 93. In fact, people were used as human shields since the school premises were the Russian military “headquarters”. Ten elderly people died due to inhuman detention conditions – lack of sufficient space, proper sanitary conditions, and access to air, food, and water. Earlier, in June 2022, Ukraine indicted eight servicemen of the armed forces of the Russian Federation due to the death of 10 civilians in Yahidne.

Occupied territories

In the temporarily occupied resort village Zaliznyi Port in Kherson Oblast, the Russian so-called “administration” carries out a census and confiscation of businesses (resorts, cafes, and restaurants) of Ukrainian citizens that have not been re-registered under Russian law.

The Russian authorities announced that the occupied territories of Ukraine would be transferred to the Moscow time zone.

Russian independent media “Verstka” reported that the Russian authorities transported at least 14 orphans from Kherson to the temporarily occupied Simferopol “Yolochka” orphanage, which in 2020 was called a “concentration camp” by the media and compared to Auschwitz due to the cruel treatment of the pupils. Journalists of the publication established this by analyzing photographs of orphans from the occupied territories of Ukraine within the report on the results of the “Become Ded Moroz [Santa Claus]” campaign, published on the “Adoption in the Moscow Region” website. All 14 children were photographed in the interiors of the “Yolochka” orphanage, which is subordinate to the Crimean Ministry of Health and specializes in working with children with central nervous system lesions, mental and behavioral disorders, hearing, vision and HIV. “Verstka” assumes that the Kherson children in the photos were transported to the temporarily occupied Crimea in October 2022 during the so-called “evacuation” of local residents on the eve of the city’s liberation by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The Russian command continues the preparation of an offensive operation in the Lyman direction, trying to hide these intentions with active actions in the areas of Vuhledar, Orikhiv and Hulyaipole;
• The enemy’s attacks in the Zaporizhzhia direction are aimed at restraining the actions of the Defense Forces and preventing their shift to a counteroffensive.

Battleline:

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the Russian attacks in the areas of Ploschanka, Nevske and Chervonopopivka in Luhansk Oblast and Verkhnyokamianske, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Vodyane, Nevelske, Maryinka and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast.
• The Defense Forces attacked units of the 144th motorized rifle division of the 20th Army in the Torske area.
• The enemy units of the 4th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd army corps attacked the Defense Forces in the Chervonopopivka area.
• A battalion of the 331st parachute airborne regiment of the 98th airborne division entered into battle in the Dibrova village area. It attacked with the forces of two platoons, with the support of tanks, in the direction of Dibrova – Torske and Dibrova – Yampil. In the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked in the direction of Yampolivka with forces of up to two platoons from the 55th separate motorized rifle brigade in the dismounted combat formation. They continued fruitless attempts, trying to push units of the Defense Forces beyond the Chornyi Zherebets River.
• The enemy carried out 39 attacks in the Bakhmut area, slowly advancing in the city’s southeastern outskirts. Battles continued in Maryinka and Vodyane, where the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps attacked. Intense battles continue in the area of Vuhledar and Pavlivka.

Enemy disposition:

• On the northern and northwestern outskirts of Kreminna, two battalions of the 104th Air assault regiment (AAR) of the 76th Air assault division (AAD) are preparing a defense area. The 234th and 237th AARs of the 76th AAD are concentrated in the Kuzmine village area; they receive military equipment to replenish losses. The 31st separate airborne assault brigade, the grouping’s reserve, is concentrated near Luhansk.
• The arrival of mercenaries from the PMC “Redut”, formally a GRU division, is noted in the Vuhledar region.
• The Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksiy Reznikov, reported that as of January 7, Russian troops had 90 Iranian-made drones remaining.
• Analysis of the supply of tanks to the units of the Russian Armed Forces shows that they have, on average, 55% of combat vehicles of the assigned quantity.

Escalation indicators:

The enemy intensified attacks in the area of Vuhledar and Pavlivka.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian command will attempt to “cut” the Vuhledar ledge, simultaneously advancing on both sides of the M04-E50 road;
• The intensity of enemy air strikes using UAVs on the objects in the rear of Ukraine [outside of the frontlines] will decrease.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

• There are 11 warships at sea. 4 of them, including one submarine, are carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles. The possible number of missiles on board is up to 20 units. During the missile attack on January 26, up to 10 Kalibr cruise missiles were used from sea carriers.
• In the Sea of Azov waters, 2 patrol boats are stationed on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports to block the Azov coast.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 16 sorties of enemy aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.
• The hull of the first of eight Mark VI patrol boats planned for Ukraine has been built and delivered to the SAFE Boats shipyard in Tacoma (USA) for equipment. In June 2020, the United States Department of State approved the possible Foreign Military Sale (FMS) to the Government of Ukraine of up to 16 Mark VI patrol boats and related equipment at an estimated cost of US$600 million. On January 5, 2021, the US Department of Defense issued a $19 million order to SAFE Boats International to begin production of the first two Ukrainian Mk VI patrol boats. Eight months later, NAVSEA awarded SAFE Boats International an $84 million contract modification for six more Mk VI patrol boats, with an option to extend for two more boats.

“Grain initiative”.

• During the last week, 2-3 ships leave Odesa per day. This is the lowest indicator for the entire operation of the Grain Initiative. This indicator is due to the artificial blocking of the “grain corridor” by Russian inspectors in the Bosphorus. Despite this, the average tonnage of shipments per vessel in January remained at 37 thousand tons, which is the best indicator during the operation of the grain corridor. But it did not positively affect the total number of shipments in January. Thus, only 2.4 million tons of grain left the corridor in the first month of the new year, while in September and October, it was more than 4 million tons. Five hundred forty thousand tons of wheat were shipped in January, of which 61,000 tons went to Africa.

• In total, Ukraine has already sent 675 vessels with a cargo of 18.4 million tons as part of the “grain initiative”. To Africa – 2.3 million tons, Asia – 5.1 million tons, Europe – 7.5 million tons, and the Middle East – 3.4 million tons.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 27.01.23

Personnel – almost 124,710 people (+850)

Tanks – 3,182 (+7)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,340 (+6);

Artillery systems – 2,180 (+11);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 452 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 221 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,001 (+15); Aircraft – 292 (0);

Helicopters – 283 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,941 (+33); Intercepted cruise missiles – 796 (+47);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

International diplomatic aspect

“Today, as always, Ukraine honors the memory of millions of Holocaust victims. We know and remember that indifference kills along with hatred. Indifference and hatred are always capable of creating evil together only,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his address at the Babyn Yar memorial. Chief rabbi of Ukraine Moshe Reuven Azman added, “It is scary to realize what is happening now to Ukrainians, whom the Russian Federation is also killing based on nationality. I prayed in Babi Yar for the Almighty to show great miracles and for peace to come after the Victory of Ukraine!”

Out of six million Jewish people killed by the Nazis, one and a half million were from the territory of contemporary Ukraine. On September 29-30, 1941, the Nazis shot in Babyn Yar almost 34,000 Kyiv Jews.

In March 2022, at the first stage of the all-out invasion, a Russian missile fell on the territory of the Babyn Yar memorial. “During the past year, some of the Holocaust’s last survivors have been killed in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, alongside the many victims of multiple war crimes, at the doorstep of the European Union,” the High Representative/Vice President Josep Borrell stated. In March, the Russian bombing of Kharkiv killed Borys Romanchenko (96), a survivor of the Buchenwald, Dora, and Bergen-Belsen concentration camps. In April, Wanda Obedkova (91), another Holocaust survivor, died in the basement of a house in Mariupol, besieged by Russians, from cold and dehydration.

Approximately 12,000 Ukrainian Jews left for Israel in the first half of 2022, while for the whole previous year, the figure was four times less. Piotr Cywinski, Auschwitz state museum director, compared Nazi crimes to those the Russians have committed in Ukrainian towns like Bucha and Mariupol.

With his natural hypocrisy Vladimir Putin, during the meeting with Chief Rabbi of Russia Berel Lazar and Head of the Federation of Jewish Communities Alexander Boroda, said, “we are categorically against consigning to oblivion crimes of this kind, which have no statute of limitations. And we are doing this; we are pursuing such a policy so that nothing like this in the history of mankind will ever happen again.” In his turn, Berl Lazar replied, “When innocent people suffer just because someone attacks them, it is terrible; it is inexplicable and unbearable”. “So thank you so much for everything you have done and are doing. Moreover, today Jews feel really comfortable in Russia and thank God for what is really happening in our country today. In this regard, we keep saying that we are ready to do everything to find some peaceful solutions,” he added.

However, Pinchas Goldschmidt, Moscow’s exiled Chief rabbi, warned Russian Jews in December to leave Russia while they still could. “When we look back over Russian history, whenever the political system was in danger, you saw the government trying to redirect the anger and discontent of the masses towards the Jewish community,” he told the Guardian. “We saw this in tsarist times and at the end of the Stalinist regime.”

The Jewish Agency, an organization responsible for aiding Russia-Jewish migration to Israel, was under the threat of being outlawed. The Israeli government had to intervene to protect it. The Agency helped some 16,000 Jews to leave Russia for Israel after the start of the all-out invasion of Ukraine.

Berl Lazar and Alexander Boroda’s meeting with Putin was held in a room decorated with statues of imperators, including Catherine II, who established a discriminatory Pale of Settlement, forbidding Jews to live eastwards of the line and in large cities of the Russian Empire.

Lockheed Martin stands ready to “meet the demand for its F-16 jets” as some of Ukraine’s closest European allies revive efforts to provide fighter jets to Kyiv, FT wrote. The company expects to boost its production to backfill all those countries that will decide to supply jets to Ukraine. The Netherlands hinted that there are “no taboos” in weapons supply, and they would consider any requests to send F-16s. Though the Biden Administration has not signaled that it is considering such an option, it would make sense given the logic behind the main battle tank decision. The US helps Ukraine to acquire capabilities and ability (including the recently launched Combined Arms Training) to carry out combined operations. Ukraine possesses a mixed set of capabilities for combined operations (Soviet/Ukrainian-made as well as an increasing number of Western-made artillery systems and armor vehicles but still legacy fighter jets). Therefore F-16s and missiles with longer ranges that Ukraine doesn’t have are missing parts.

However, the new German Defence Minister has already expressed his opposition, “I think that is out of the question [Western-made jets]. Fighter jets are much more complex than battle tanks and have a different range and firepower. There we would delve into dimensions that I would now be very wary of.”

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