CDS Daily brief (28.01.23) | CDS comments on key events
- Опубліковано: CDS
- Категорія: DailyBrief
Snapshot of the day:
- Eight oblasts, including the liberated Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts bordering the Russian Federation, came under Russian fire the day before. At least 6 civilians died, and 15 were injured;
- There is still a shortage of power in the energy system; the situation is the worst in Odesa Oblast following the Russian attack on January 26;
- Ukrainian courts pass down several sentences on the so-called “DPR” mercenaries;
- In Kharkiv Oblast, more than 400 bodies discovered in the territories liberated from the Russians remain unidentified;
- During the 11 months of the full-scale war, Russia committed 477 crimes against the media – Institute of Mass Information;
- The occupiers had brought 800 Russian police officers from Rostov Oblast and Krasnodar Krai to [occupied part of] Zaporizhzhia Oblast in an attempt to break any resistance.
- The Russian military continues to conduct offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka directions. And it is on the defensive in the Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast), Lyman (Donetsk Oblast), Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson directions;
- In an attempt to regain control over the information domain on the eve of a new strategic operation, the Russian military command is trying to take control of the persons covering hostilities conducted by Russian groupings in Ukraine;
- The enemy will try to cut the T0504 Kostyantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Bakhmut route;
- The use of TOS-1A near Vuhledar indicates the importance of the offensive in this direction to Russian command;
- Up to 40% of Russian command posts at the tactical level remain vacant;
- Sea: In the Black Sea region of Crimea (the western part of the peninsula), there is a significant accumulation of Russian equipment; a new unit of the Russian Federation is housed in Dzhankoy, occupied Crimea. The servicemen are dressed in sand-colored military uniforms, have a neat appearance and are distinguished by high discipline.
- Most Germans support its government’s decision to provide Ukraine with tanks. A profile of a typical antagonist to such a decision includes either far right or far left political views and residence in the former communist part of Germany.
- Turkey may lose access to the G7 market should it not comply with sanctions against Russia.
- The Czechs favored a pro-EU, NATO, and Ukraine candidate for the President over a populist with a softer stand on Russia.
- According to the joint investigation of NOS and Nieuwsuur, microchips produced by Dutch companies are entering the Russian Federation despite the sanctions.
As of 9 a.m. on January 28, over the previous 24 hours, 8 Ukrainian regions came under Russian fire. In particular,
- On the night of January 28, Russian forces hit infrastructure facilities in Zaporizhzhia; one of them caught fire, and a man was injured, secretary of the Zaporizhzhia City Council, Anatoly Kurtev, said. It later became known that an Iskander missile was used in the attack.
- On January 27, Russian attacks killed 4 residents of Donetsk Oblast and wounded another 7. The Soledar community was under intense fire, as well as Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar. On Saturday, January 28, 3 people died, and 14 were injured due to the shelling of Kostyantynivka, the head of Donetsk Oblast Military Administration (OMA) Pavlo Kyrylenko said. He stressed that although Kostiantynivka is relatively far from the front line, it still constantly suffers from enemy attacks. He called on the city residents to evacuate.
- On January 27, the invaders shelled the territory of Kherson Oblast 19 times, killing two people and injuring seven others. The city of Kherson was hit five times, and residential buildings and medical facilities were damaged.
- In the Slobozhansk direction, Kharkiv Oblast, the Russian forces shelled more than 30 towns and villages. A man was wounded in one of them and was hospitalized.
The Russian attack on January 26 caused significant damage to several objects of the high-voltage network. As a result, electricity production at operating power plants cannot fully cover consumption. As of the morning of Saturday, January 28, consumption in the energy system has decreased slightly, but the electricity deficit remains significant, the press service of “Ukrenergo” reports. Currently, the most difficult situation is in Odesa Oblast. Due to substantial damage, the restoration is expected to take longer than usual.
The court sentenced two terrorists of the illegal armed formation “DPR” who fought against the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donetsk Oblast to 10 years in prison, the Prosecutor General’s Office reports. The suspects were found guilty of encroaching on the territorial integrity and inviolability of Ukraine, participating in a terrorist organization and illegal armed formations.
The court sentenced a resident of Shakhtarsk, occupied Donetsk Oblast, to 15 years in prison. As part of the illegal armed formation “DPR”, the man took part in hostilities against the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Prosecutor General’s Office reported. The militant of the so-called “DPR” was found guilty of treason.
Consequences of the occupation
In Kharkiv Oblast, more than 400 bodies discovered in the territories liberated from the Russians remain unidentified, the National Police of Ukraine reports.
Crimes against the media
During the 11 months of the full-scale war, Russia committed 477 crimes against the media in Ukraine, including the kidnapping and murder of journalists, cyber-attacks, and shelling of TV towers, according to monitoring conducted by the Institute of Mass Information. It is noted that 43 journalists are currently known to have been murdered, eight of whom died while performing the editorial task. 21 media workers were kidnapped, 14 are considered missing. 17 journalists were injured, and 67 people were intimidated, particularly one – legal pressure.
The legally elected Mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, reported that the occupiers had brought 800 Russian police officers from Rostov Oblast and Krasnodar Krai to Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Fedorov said that the occupying force again try to intimidate the residents with “police officers” and prisons, “trying to instill obedience.” He noted that the policemen would be taken to work in Tokmak, Polohy and Vasylivka and taken to a safer place at night because “they are afraid of partisans “.
Operational situation General conclusion:
- The Russian military continues to conduct offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka directions. It is on the defensive in the Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast), Lyman (Donetsk Oblast), Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson directions;
- In an attempt to regain control over the information domain on the eve of a new strategic operation, the Russian military command is trying to take control of the persons covering the course of hostilities by Russian groupings in Ukraine;
- The enemy will try to cut the T0504 Kostyantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Bakhmut route;
- The use of TOS-1A near Vuhledar indicates the importance of the offensive in this direction for the Russian command;
- Up to 40% of command posts at the tactical level of the Russian grouping remain vacant.
- Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast and Rozdolivka, Krasna Hora, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Druzhba, Vodyane, Maryinka, Pobyeda, Vuhledar and Prechystivka in Donetsk Oblast;
- The enemy advanced 500 m in the area of Ternova, Kharkiv Oblast, pushing back the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
- The 254th motorized rifle regiment of the 144th motorized rifle division of the 20th army repulsed the attack of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast.
- In the Soledar area, the Russian forces advanced to the village of Sil, where they were stopped by artillery fire from the Joint Forces while trying to cross the Bakhmutivka River.
- In other directions, the enemy took control of Krasnopolivka and Dvorichchya in Kharkiv Oblast.
- In Donetsk Oblast, the mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC try to seize Blahodatne, slowly advance deep into Bakhmut, and fight in the area of the meat processing plant. Fighting continues in the Paraskoviivka area.
- The enemy units advanced in Vodyane, slightly advanced in Pisky and on the northwestern outskirts of the city of Donetsk.
- Russian units of the 155th separate marines brigade captured Mykilske on the southeastern outskirts of Vuhledar. The city was shelled from TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems.
The transfer of the 2nd motorized rifle division from the Republic of Belarus to Luhansk Oblast is in progress.
The use of TOS-1A near Vuhledar.
Possible operation situation developments:
- The Russian command continues to concentrate its forces in the Luhansk direction;
- The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on the Bakhmut and Vuhledar directions; the activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast is of a distracting nature.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:
- to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
- to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.
The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.
- There are 12 warships at sea. Among them are 3 Kalibr cruise missile carriers, including 1 submarine. The possible number of missiles on board is up to 12 units.
- During the January 26 missile attack, the use of the enemy 9 Kalibr missiles from sea carriers was confirmed. Some of them were targeted at critical infrastructure facilities in Odesa. Although three Kalibr missiles were shot down near Odesa, the others hit two energy supply facilities.
- In the Sea of Azov, on the approach to the Mariupol and Berdiansk seaports, 2 patrol boats are located with the purpose of blocking the Azov coast.
- Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, about 20 sorties of Russian aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded. On January 26, during the massive missile attack, 4 Su-35S multipurpose fighters launched 4 Kh-59 cruise missiles in the direction of the southern regions of Ukraine (the Air Defense Forces of Ukraine shot one down, and three fell during the flight).
- A new unit of the Russian Federation is housed in Dzhankoy, occupied Crimea. The servicemen are dressed in sand-colored military uniforms, have a neat appearance and are distinguished by high discipline.
- In the Black Sea region of Crimea (the western part of the peninsula), there is a significant accumulation of Russian equipment: up to 200 units of armored vehicles (tanks, self- propelled guns), 240 trucks and 80 artillery systems. The equipment from the sea direction is covered by three boats of the Russian Navy patrolling the raid.
- Railway freight trains arrive on the territory of Kherson Oblast from the direction of Crimea, unloading military equipment and ammunition at the “Kalanchak”, “Brylivka”, and “Novooleksiyivka” stations.
- The Russian forces continued shelling the city of Kherson from the occupied left bank of the Dnipro River. The Turkish ship “Ferahnaz”, which has been in Kherson for about a year, came under Russian fire. Earlier, the invaders fired at another Turkish ship in Kherson, “Tuzla”.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.2022 to 28.01.2023
Personnel – almost 125,510 people (+800)
Tanks – 3,189 (+7)
Armored combat vehicles – 6,344 (+4);
Artillery systems – 2,188 (+8);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 453 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 221 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,027 (+26); Aircraft – 293 (+1);
Helicopters – 284 (+1);
UAV operational and tactical level – 1,947 (+6); Intercepted cruise missiles – 796 (+0);
Boats/ships – 18 (0).
Ukraine, general news
Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotskyi said on January 28, 2023, that due to hostilities or temporary occupation of territories, it is currently impossible to use 25% of the arable land. In general, the expected sown area for all categories of farms in the controlled territory of Ukraine in 2023 is 21.8 million hectares, which is 6.8 million hectares less than the indicator of 2021 (28.6 million hectares).
Ukrainian ethnic Hungarians, represented by the deputy of the Transcarpathian Regional Council, Fedir Sandor, who is currently at the frontline, refuted the statement of the head of the Hungarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Peter Siyarto, who claimed that Hungarians in the Transcarpathian region are mobilized into the Ukrainian army by force. “Transcarpathian Hungarians are decent citizens of Ukraine. Thousands of Transcarpathians of all nationalities (including Hungarians) took up arms and went to fight – because we do not want the Russian invaders to come to Transcarpathia and kill our relatives. We all remember how it was in the last century, we remember the “little robot” and the concentration camps for Hungarians organized by the Russians,” Sandor wrote on his Facebook page.
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine concluded 16 contracts with Ukrainian manufacturers of unmanned aerial vehicles. This year about 20 billion UAH (about UDS 546 million) should be allocated to this segment, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports on Facebook.
International diplomatic aspect
The majority of Germans (54%) support Olaf Scholtz’s government decision to provide Ukraine with Leopard 2 MBTs, according to a ZDF poll. Meanwhile, thirty-eight percent don’t support the decision. The most prominent supporters of supporting Ukraine are affiliated with the Greens (75%), Christian Democrats (64%), and Social Democrats (61%), while the far right (89%) and far left (57%) are firmly against the decision. There’s a geographical division, too, as the former communist terries are against sending tanks to Ukraine (57% noes, while 35% ayes), while the West is firmly for assisting Ukraine with tanks (59% ayes, 33% noes). The new Minister of Defence enjoys a high approval rating (68%), with only eight percent believing Boris Pistorius won’t do his job well.
Turkey and the UAE may lose access to the G7 market if they continue to help Russia circumvent the sanctions. Brian Nelson, Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, will travel over there to discuss measures respective governments undertake to curb sanctions evasion. Last month, the US issued a warning that Turkish individuals may get into trouble with the US government should they not comply with the US export control measures, mainly providing services to Russian, Belarusian, and Iranian commercial aircraft.
Turkey has become a safe haven for Russian ex-pats, money, and luxury yachts. Russians became the largest group of foreigners living in Turkey with residence permits (153,000). In 2022 Russians bought more than 14,000 pieces of property (almost fivefold since last year). Bloomberg noticed a $24.4 billion surplus of financial capital inflow into Turkey in July, which is likely Russian money. By October 2022, Turkey’s trade with Russia had increased 87% in one year. In addition, there has been the relocation of a number of Russian companies’ HQs on Turkish soil: Yandex, Avito, and Tinkoff bank, to name a few. Only in March the Russians established 1,000 new companies.
Miloš Zeman, the outgoing Czech President, would not be succeeded by a pro-Russian successor in his post. The Czechs have favored retired NATO general Petr Pavel over a populist, former Prime Minister Andrej Babis. Mr. Pavel’s campaign was based on strong positions in the EU and NATO and robust support for Ukraine. The Czech voice in the EU and NATO is important, given how damaging a voice of a country like Hungary may be on the issues of supporting Ukraine and sanctioning Russia. Czechia is the sixth largest donor to Ukraine per its GDP share and the fourteenth largest in absolute terms.
Russia, relevant news
The Korean concern Hyundai is in dialogue with the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade and the government of St. Petersburg regarding the resumption of the work of its St. Petersburg plant, the director of the procurement department of Hyundai Motor Jung Hyeonchul said, according to Kommersant.
According to the joint investigation of NOS and Nieuwsuur, microchips produced by Dutch companies are entering the Russian Federation despite the sanctions. “We are talking about millions of pieces from the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine until December inclusive,” the publication says. According to journalists, several hundred deliveries were made to three Russian companies related to defense enterprises. “Dutch” microchips were also found in Russian weapons. Export takes place through intermediaries; there is a scheme where a small group of Chinese companies obtains Dutch chips and exports them to Russia. One such company is on the US sanctions list due to supplies for the Russian defense complex.
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