CDS Daily brief (29.01.23) | CDS comments on key events

Download in PDF

---

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Air raid alert went on in half of the Ukrainian regions at about 11 p.m. on Sunday, January 29. Russia attacked 8 Ukrainian oblasts the day before and launched massive strikes on Kherson during the day today.
• Ukraine honors Kruty Heroes today – a group of young Kyiv residents who fought an overwhelming Russian Bolshevik Army in 1918. Parallels with today are drawn by the country’s leadership;
• Today is 6 months since the Russian attack on Ukrainian POWs in the occupied Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, the Ukrainian Ombudsman said. He criticized ICRC and the UN for the lack of proper reaction;
• For technical reasons, one of the blocks of thermal power plants was taken out for repair; accordingly, the amount of electricity produced in the system decreased;

Military:

• The Russian military command continues the offensive operation in the Bakhmut direction as the main one. The Luhansk direction, in particular, the defensive operation in the area of Svatove – Kreminna, is secondary;
• The replacement of units of the “Wagner” PMC in the Bakhmut-Soledar area indicates their exhaustion but also shows the presence of combat-ready tactical reserves of the Russian group in this area;
• For two days, the Russian side did not report any activity in the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• the intensified activity of Russian troops in the East of Ukraine is aimed at seizing the operational initiative;
• the Russian military concentrates its main efforts on the Bakhmut and Vuhledar directions, the activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast is of a distracting nature;
• the likely Russian goal is to force the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to bring the maximum number of reserves into battle without waiting for the supply of armored vehicles from the Allies and to conduct a counteroffensive operation in the Luhansk direction to capture Lyman;
• A hypothetical loss of control over Vuhledar by the Ukrainian side will not lead to the destruction of the defense of the Joint Forces in the East of Ukraine due to the exhaustion of the enemy in this direction and the lack of operational reserves of adequate quality.

International:

• An Iranian defense factory in Isfahan, likely producing missiles and drones, was hit by allegedly Israeli UAVs.
• NATO’s top military urged to secure Ukraine’s victory to avoid troubles for the Alliance and called to increase defense industry production. The German Foreign Minister called for consolidation for “fighting a war against Russia, and not against each other.”
• The Hungarian Prime Minister made a lot of noise in the conservative media explaining his de facto pro-Russian views.

• Italy and France are deepening energy cooperation with the MENA region, substituting Russia in supplies and energy partnerships.

Humanitarian aspect:

Russian attacks

Russian forces attacked 8 regions of Ukraine over the course of January 28. There are killed and injured civilians. As of 9 a.m. on January 29, the situation in the regions is the following:

• The northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts bordering on the Russian Federation were shelled 3 and 13 times during the day, respectively. No victims are reported. Civilian infrastructure and private houses were hit in Sumy Oblast.
• 27 reports of destruction have come from Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where 21 towns and villages have come under Russian fire. No victims are reported.
• Over 20 towns and villages came under Russian fire in Kharkiv Oblast. An 83-year-old woman was injured in Vovchansk.
• The situation is difficult in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, where intense fighting is underway. In Donetsk Oblast, four people died, and 17 were injured in one day.
• In Mykolaiv Oblast, the enemy launched artillery strikes on the Ochakiv community yesterday. Residential and apartment buildings, farm buildings and administrative building were damaged. There are no casualties.
• At least 12 towns and villages were shelled in Kherson Oblast. In the village of Blahodatne, local residents found a wounded man in a field blown up by a Russian mine. One person was injured during the day due to Russian aggression. 80 people were evacuated from the liberated parts of Kherson Oblast.

At around 3 p.m. on January 29, Kherson Oblast Military Administration (OMA) reported a massive shelling of the city’s residential quarters. OMA urged residents to go to bomb shelters and stressed that many people were injured and killed. Information on the exact number of victims is being verified. Earlier in the day, the Russian troops fired at Kherson Oblast hospital, wounding a nurse.

Air raid alert went off in half of the Ukrainian regions at about 11 p.m. on Sunday, January 29. Explosions were reported in Kharkiv Oblast. An artillery fire was reported in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Energy

The deficit in Ukraine’s energy system is still significant, NEC “Ukrenergo” reports. Electricity consumption was at the same level as on Saturday. For technical reasons, one of the blocks of thermal power plants was taken out for repair; accordingly, the amount of electricity produced in the system decreased. Ukrenergo noted that the energy system of Ukraine has already survived 13 enemy missile attacks and 15 UAV strikes on energy facilities.

Russian war crimes

Dmytro Lubinets, the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, said that today marks half a year since the terrorist attack by the Russian Federation in the Olenivka colony in the occupied part of Donetsk Oblast where Ukrainian POWs, including those evacuated from Azovstal plant, were held. He reminded that, according to experts, the explosion took place inside, and the method of execution of this murder was a thermobaric weapon. The Ombudsman emphasized that Ukraine will investigate its soldiers’ killing, which will be another instance for a special tribunal. Lubinets also criticized international organizations such as the International Committee of the Red Cross and the United Nations for the lack of proper reaction.

Occupied territories

According to Petro Andryushchenko, the advisor to the Mariupol city mayor, the Russian propaganda in Mariupol is blaming the Ukrainian authorities for the failure to evacuate the city residents at the start of the war. Andryushchenko stresses that, in fact, it was Russia who destroyed city busses by MLRS shelling in the first 5 days of the assault and did not allow busses organized by the Ukrainian government to come to Mariupol to evacuate its residents when the bombardments started.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The Russian military command continues the offensive operation in the Bakhmut direction, as the main one. The Luhansk direction, in particular, the defensive operation in the area of Svatove – Kreminna, is secondary;
• The replacement of units of the “Wagner” PMC in the Bakhmut-Soledar area indicates their exhaustion but also shows the presence of combat-ready tactical reserves of the Russian group in this area;
• For two days, the Russian side did not report any activity in the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Battleline:

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Dibrova and Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast; Yampolivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Rozdolivka, Sil, Blahodatne, Paraskoviivka, Krasna Hora Druzhba, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, Maryinka, Pobyeda and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast;
• Russian troops concentrate their main efforts on the capture of Donetsk Oblast, which may lead to the enemy taking over key positions in the west of Luhansk and northeast of Donetsk Oblasts in order to reach their administrative borders;
• The enemy advanced insignificantly near Hryanykivka, Kharkiv Oblast, attacked near Chervonopopivka in the direction of Nevske and Makiyivka; continues to press on Rozdolivka and Sacco and Vanzetti; maintains its positions near Novovodyanе, Luhansk Oblast;
• Russian troops advanced to the northwestern outskirts of Sil. Mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC pushed Ukrainian forces back from their positions north of Sil, and airborne units attacked in the direction of Paraskoviivka and Verkhnyokamianske, captured a stronghold near Paraskoviivka and Krasna Hora. Blahodatne is under the control of the Russian forces, Krasna Hora is under the control of the Ukrainian Joint Forces. The situation around Klishchiivka is difficult but stable;
• Russian troops have advanced near Vodyane, Severnе, and are trying to advance to the heights near Severne and Tonenke. They have slightly advanced west of Mykilske and south of Vuhledar. Attempts to bypass Ukrainian forces in the Vuhledar area and take control of the surrounding roads proved unsuccessful.

Enemy disposition:

• The Russian military command is forced to replace the depleted detachments of the “Wagner” PMC in the area of Soledar and Bakhmut with units of the regular Russian Armed Forces. PMC losses in this district are estimated at 4,100 killed and 10,000 wounded in the last two months of fighting alone.
• The military units of the 6th motorized rifle division of the 3rd army corps of the Western Military District of the Russian Armed Forces (about 12,000 poorly trained mobilized troops), that the Ukrainian Armed Forces defeated in the fall of 2022 during the Kharkiv counteroffensive, are restoring combat capability at the training grounds of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus.
• Efforts of the new commander of the Russian operation, General Gerasimov, are aimed at marginalizing paramilitary formations and PMCs operating in the operational zone. At the same time, the “Redut” PMC controlled by S. Shoigu, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, remains out of the scope of the information campaign.

Escalation indicators:

• The Russian military brought airborne military units into battle in the Bakhmut direction and the marines in the Vuhledar direction, indicating the importance of the troops’ tasks [in this direction].

Possible operation situation developments:

• The intensified activity of Russian troops in the East of Ukraine is aimed at seizing the operational initiative;
• The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on the Bakhmut and Vuhledar directions; the activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast is of a distracting nature;
• The likely Russian goal is to force the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to bring the maximum number of reserves into battle without waiting for the supply of armored vehicles from the Allies, and to conduct a counteroffensive operation in the Luhansk direction to capture Lyman;
• A hypothetical loss of control over Vuhledar by the Ukrainian side will not lead to the destruction of the defense of the Joint Forces in the East of Ukraine due to the exhaustion of the enemy in this direction and the lack of operational reserves of adequate quality;

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

• Despite the weather conditions, there are 15 warships at sea. Among them are 3 Kalibr cruise missile carriers, two surface ships and 1 submarine. The possible number of missiles on board is up to 20 units. Two large amphibious ships of project 775 have been put to sea, possibly for the purpose of delivering military equipment from the city of Novorossiysk.
• In the Sea of Azov, on the approach to the Mariupol and Berdiansk seaports, 2 patrol boats are located with the purpose of blocking the Azov coast.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 12 sorties of Russian aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.2022 to 29.01.2023

Personnel – almost 126,160 people (+650)

Tanks – 3,197 (+8)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,366 (+22);

Artillery systems – 2,195 (+7);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 453 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 221 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,037 (+10); Aircraft – 293 (0);

Helicopters – 284 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,947 (0); Intercepted cruise missiles – 796 (+0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Today, Ukraine honors the Kruty heroes. At the Askold grave in Kyiv, President Zelensky laid flowers at the memorial cross to the Heroes of Krut. “In 1918, several hundred Ukrainian youths, students, entered into an unequal battle with the Bolshevik horde. And, despite the superiority of the enemy’s forces, the Ukrainian defenders managed to stop the Russian offensive for several days. It was one of the most tragic confrontations in our history, the history of the struggle for Ukraine’s independence,” the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk said. The message from the Ukrainian Culture and Information Policy Ministry stressed that 105 years later, the enemy is still the same. “The Battle of Kruty became a symbol of the heroism of the young generation in the struggle for independence and an example for modern defenders of Ukraine of how to fight against numerous enemy.”

The total amount of charitable contributions through the UNITED24 platform since its launch on May 5, 2022, has reached $275,756,976.

In Zaporizhzhia, 60% of enterprises have resumed work, but most of them have reduced the volume of production and the number of employees, said the acting mayor of Zaporizhzhia, Anatoly Kurtev. He noted that enterprises could not work at full capacity, in particular, due to restrictions on electricity consumption. The acting mayor also informed that during the full-scale war, about 26 enterprises from Zaporizhzhia moved to the west of Ukraine. In particular, two large enterprises were relocated, however, Kurtev did not specify which ones.

International diplomatic aspect

An Iranian defense factory in Isfahan and an oil refinery near Tabriz were hit by UAVs. The IRNA news agency said the strike had targeted “an ammunition manufacturing plant.” Earlier, the Iranian media reported that a Kurdish opposition party member and the Israelis were involved in preparing an attack on a military aerospace facility in Isfahan. Therefore, it may be a facility for missiles and drone production, including that Iran provides to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

“We have to make sure that the Russians don’t win the war in Ukraine. If they do, we will have a much bigger problem in terms of money and defense: the Russians will be on our borders,” Admiral Rob Bauer, the chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, warned. He called on the allies to increase defense industry production. “We are fighting a war against Russia, and not against each other,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said. Though it was clear that she was talking about supporting Ukraine, Moscow used her phrase to push a false proxy war narrative. However, the Russians, who rely on Iranian drones, don’t consider it a proxy war between Iran and Ukraine waged by the Russian hands.

There’re two important messages. Firstly, “in the face of Russia’s war, neutrality was not an option. We had to make a choice between injustice and justice, freedom and oppression, between standing on the side of the aggressor and standing on the side of the victims.” Secondly, the West needs to turn the defense industry into a war mode to support Ukraine and prepare itself for a possible conflict. The readiness to fight is the best deterrence tool for the West, as the ability to defend itself is the best way to achieve victory and bring peace to Ukraine.

“Sharp, funny, brilliant, and completely confident” Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban gave an interview to The American Conservative. A “goat among the NATO sheep” said that from virtually the beginning pushed hard for a cease-fire and a peaceful settlement, which isn’t out of love for the Russians, but out of concern for the fate of Hungary and Europe. He didn’t elaborate on how he could have succeeded, whereas presidents of the United States, France, and Turkey, as well as the German Chancellor, failed to avert and then stop the all-out invasion.

Orban insists that people in the West must grasp that Putin “cannot afford to lose and will not lose because he’s up for re-election next year.” It’s a strange thesis because Russia has had no free and fair elections ever since Putin came to power. Besides the fact that elections in Russia are rather a formal ritual than an expression of people’s will, Putin’s regime has either jailed or pushed anyone who may cause trouble for him out of the country, tightened the grip on media, has been bombarding the Russians by massive propaganda.

The Hungarian leader believes that failing to achieve a quick victory, Putin is set to turn Ukraine into an “ungovernable wreck, so the West cannot claim it as a prize.” “It’s Afghanistan now,” he described the country’s state. Admitting Ukraine’s successes, Orban turned to the Russian propaganda narrative that “Russian history, this is how it goes with the Russians at war. They start out poorly, but after a while, they figure things out, and then become hard to stop.” Orban didn’t mention that such success in both wars Russians love to refer to (the war with Napoleon of 1812 and the Second World War) was due to the Western support (anti-French coalition and anti-Hitler coalition).

Orban called Orthodox Christians “the most important reserve” for Christians in the West to regain their religious footing. Leaving aside his rejection of modernity (he prized Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland for being less affected by corrosive modernity), he showed a little knowledge of the state of affairs in the Russian Orthodox Church and how “religious” or “conservative” Russians are.

According to the World Health Organization, Russia (16.29%) and Hungary (15.29%) have the highest rate of alcohol consumption in the male category. As per women, Russia (2.58%) is in second place, and Hungary at fifth (2.27%). In 2019, Russia was the world’s third-highest suicide rate, according to the World Health Organization. Every fifth murder and every third rape in the country occurs within the family, according to the Important Stories project. 78% of Russians won’t fast during Lent, while only 3% will do it, according to a Levada Centre poll. A third (35%) had no doubts about the existence of God. 48% believe in an afterlife, 52% in the existence of Heaven, and 49% in the evil eye or bad spell.

Italy and Libya have signed an $8 billion gas supply contract that will bring 21 million cubic meters of gas starting in 2026. Last year, Libya exported just 2.63 billion cubic meters, a sharp decrease from before the military intervention of 2011 (8 billion). Earlier, in addition to a $4 billion contract for 9 billion cubic meters of gas in 2022, Italy signed an agreement to increase Algeria’s gas exports to Italy and potentially further to other European customers. Meanwhile, Qatar has replaced Russia in a gas consortium with Lebanon, France, and Italy. The consortium will search for gas in the Mediterranean Sea off Lebanon’s coast after the country settled its territorial dispute with Israel under the mediation of the US. So, Europe has drastically reduced its reliance on Russian gas, building and strengthening new capabilities while pushing Moscow from lucrative projects.

---

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020 and are involved in security studies, defence policy research and advocacy. Currently all our activity is focused on stopping the ongoing war.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email to cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are independent, non-government, non-partisan and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent