CDS Daily brief (30.01.23) | CDS comments on key events
- Опубліковано: CDS
- Категорія: DailyBrief
Snapshot of the day:
- 9 oblasts of Ukraine came under Russian fire on Jan 29. There are killed and injured civilians.
- Electricity consumption has increased, a significant deficit in generating capacity requires the continuation of scheduled blackouts. In Kyiv, the electricity supply situation remains stable.
- The enemy’s primary focus of efforts is the offensive operation in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions; secondary – the defensive operation in the Svatove-Kreminna area in the Luhansk direction.
- The revitalization Russian troops’ activity in the East of Ukraine aims to intercept the operational initiative;
- Sea: The threat of mine danger remains high. Since the beginning of the year, more than 10 sea mines have already been destroyed on the coast and in coastal waters.
- Grain initiative: The volume of exports from the Ukrainian ports of Great Odesa dropped by a third compared to the previous week. The rate of departure of ships from the ports remains critically low – 2.5 ships per day. All due to Russia’s JCC members hindering the inspection of vessels and keeping the number of ships that undergo inspection in the Bosphorus as low as 2-3 vessels per day. Currently, 117 boats are waiting for inspection in the territorial waters of Turkey. Last week, only 20 inspections took place against the minimum required of 84.
- Australia and France will produce munitions for Ukraine; Ukrainian MOD will buy Ukrainian-made UAVs; NATO Secretary-General called on South Korea to supply arms and munitions to Ukraine.
- Olaf Scholz rejected the idea of sending jets to Ukraine.
- Moscow adds a new reason for not starting talks about ending the war. In addition to achieving war aims (bizarre “denazification”, “demilitarization”, etc.), they now say that “it’s pointless to talk” because tanks were sent to Ukraine. However, they say they are ready for “an equal dialogue with European partners,” recalling their December 2021 “security guarantees,” which have been unacceptable for the West from the beginning.
As of 9 a.m. January 30, over the previous 24 hours, 9 Ukrainian regions came under Russian fire, reported Oblast Military Administrations (OMAs) in the consolidated report.
Consequences of enemy shelling
- Yesterday, January 29, around 11:00 p.m., the enemy shelled Kharkiv (according to preliminary information, with an S-300 missile), targeting a 4-story apartment building.
The upper floors and roof of the building were destroyed; the building will be [partly] demolished. 15 residents were evacuated immediately after the explosion. An elderly woman died. 3 people were wounded. In Kharkiv Oblast, on January 29, the Russian military shelled the border areas of Kupyansk (1 wounded), Chuhuyiv and Kharkiv districts. Private houses, shops, and commercial buildings were damaged.
- 1 person was injured and private houses were damaged in Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast, due to Russian shelling on January 29 and on January 30 afternoon. In Chasiv Yar, 1 person was wounded; the Russians shelling hit the area near the kindergarten and the territory of an enterprise. One killed civilian was reported in Krasnohorivka. In the Soledar community, 2 houses in Vasyukivka and several houses in Paraskoviivka were damaged. Vuhledar, Avdiivka, and Torske were also under fire.
- Kherson is under constant shelling by the Russian army. The enemy is destroying residential areas and civilian infrastructure. On January 29, the Russian occupiers shelled the territory of Kherson Oblast 42 times; 3 killed and 8 wounded civilians were reported. In Kherson, enemy shells hit the port, the Kherson regional clinical hospital, a school, a bus station, a post office, a bank, and a residential building.
- Over the past day, the Russians shelled 12 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The National Police received 5 reports about the destruction of civil infrastructure.
- At night, the enemy made artillery strikes at Ochakiv hromada in Mykolayiv Oblast. Residential buildings and commercial buildings were destroyed and damaged. There are no casualties.
- Late yesterday evening, the Russian army attacked the Chervonohryhorivka community of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Private houses and power lines were damaged.
As of the morning of January 30, electricity consumption has increased, which is typical for the beginning of the working week, accordingly, there is a significant deficit of generating capacity in the power system, reported NEC “Ukrenergo”.
Operators of distribution systems (“oblenergo”) continue to use blackout schedules in Ukraine due to the fact that there is currently a significant capacity deficit in the power system – 4.5 thousand MW, Andriy Gerus, head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy and Housing, said.
In Kyiv, the electricity supply situation remains stable, on average, Kyiv residents have power 80% over 24 hours [meaning 5 hours of outage daily], “Yasno” CEO Serhiy Kovalenko announced on Facebook.
In the Skadovsk district of Kherson Oblast, the Russian occupation forces set up a “field hospital” on kindergarten premises, reported the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is noted that the hospital is full of seriously wounded Russian servicemen.
In Mariupol, temporarily captured by the Russian invaders, local residents are forced to obtain a Russian passport for treatment and medical insurance, Petro Andryushchenko, adviser to the Mariupol city mayor, reported on his Telegram account.
Operational situation General conclusion:
- The Russian military command continues the offensive operation in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions, where it concentrates its main efforts; the Luhansk direction, in particular, the defensive operation in the Svatove-Kreminna area is secondary.
- Units of the Defense Forces repelled the enemy attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast, and Yampolivka, Rozdolivka, Vasyukivka, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Ozeryanivka, Vuhledar, and Pobyeda, Donetsk Oblast.
- Units of Ukrainian Defense forces continued to attack in the area of Kuzemivka.
- The enemy unsuccessfully attacked to the west and south of Kreminna. “Wagner” PMC detachments captured Blahodatne.
- Units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation tried to advance in the areas of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Enemy disposition: No changes in enemy disposition were detected
Escalation indicators: None
Possible operation situation developments:
- The revitalization of the activity of Russian troops in the East of Ukraine aims to intercept the operational initiative;
- The enemy has launched a PSYOP, the purpose of which is to discredit the military and political leadership of Ukraine, in particular, the commanders of the groupings conducting combat operations in Ukraine;
- In the State Duma of the Russian Federation, there are up to 20 draft laws pending consideration regarding the provision of postponements for mobilization, i.e., the formation of the regulatory and legal framework for conducting the next wave of mobilization is underway.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:
- to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
- to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.
The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.
- There are 11 warships at sea. Among them are 3 Kalibr cruise missile carriers: two Buyan- M corvettes and one submarine. The possible number of cruise missiles on board is up to 20 units. Two large amphibious ships of the 775 project continue to be at sea, possibly for the purpose of delivering military equipment from the city of Novorossiysk.
- The threat of mine danger remains extremely high. Since the beginning of the year, more than 10 sea mines have been destroyed by the Defense Forces on the coast and in coastal waters.
- In the waters of the Sea of Azov, there is 1 patrol boat on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports in order to block the Azov coast.
- Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 14 sorties of enemy aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.
- Unblocking sea ports to export all types of products will give Ukraine more than $20 billion in revenue and help preserve it from losing its position on the world market.
- Last week, 18 ships exported 664,000 tons of food from the ports of Great Odesa. This is a third less than the volume of exports from the week before. In particular, 60,000 tons of wheat were sent to Kenya, 56,000 tons to Bangladesh, and 60,000 tons of Ukrainian oil to India.
- The rate of departure of ships from the ports remains critically low – 2.5 ships per day. This is the same indicator as at the beginning of the “Grain Initiative” when export volumes were insignificant. At the same time, the number of vessels that undergo inspection in the Bosphorus and receive permission to move to Ukrainian ports for loading also does not exceed 3 vessels per day. In the Bosphorus, the Russian participants in the JCC continue to block the initiative’s implementation and artificially increase the queue of vessels.
- As of today, 117 vessels are waiting for inspection in the territorial waters of Turkey (92 are bound for ports for loading, and 25 are already with agricultural products). Last week, only 20 inspections took place against the minimum required of 84.
- The registration of vessels to participate in the initiative is also being slowed down: out of more than 80 declared vessels, the Russians register an average of only 2-3 vessels daily without explaining the reasons.
- These factors inhibit the implementation of the “Grain Initiative”: we are observing a decrease in export volumes by almost 30% compared to the previous month, and therefore the world does not receive agricultural products in the required volume. The vast majority of countries receive it with huge time delays due to idle ships in the Bosphorus.
- Currently, 21 vessels are being processed in the ports of Greater Odesa. Almost 1 million tons of Ukrainian agricultural products are loaded onto them. Only 3 loading vessels move along the “grain corridor”.
- Since August 1, 687 ships have left the ports of Great Odesa, exporting 18.9 million tons of Ukrainian food to the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa. Under the condition of stable functioning of the “grain corridor”, this indicator should be more than 28 million tons.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.2022 to 30.01.2023
Personnel – almost 126,650 people (+490)
Tanks – 3,201 (+4)
Armored combat vehicles – 6,369 (+3);
Artillery systems – 2,196 (+1);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 453 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 221 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,041 (+4); Aircraft – 293 (0);
Helicopters – 284 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 1,947 (0); Intercepted cruise missiles – 796 (+0);
Boats/ships – 18 (0).
Ukraine, general news International diplomatic aspect
“Several thousand 155-millimeter shells are going to be manufactured in common, with an unprecedented partnership between Australia and France,” the French defense minister said. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence signed sixteen contracts worth $545 million for Ukrainian- produced UAVs. “There is an urgent need for more ammunition, more weapons to Ukraine; if they don’t get that, they will not be able to resist and repel the Russian invaders under Russian aggression,” NATO Secretary General called on South Korea to change its stand on not supplying weapons to conflict zones as Germany, Sweden and Norway have already done.
Olaf Scholz does not envision sending fighter jets to Ukraine. “The question of combat aircraft does not come up at all,” he said before warning against “entering into a constant competition to outbid each other when it comes to weapons systems.” It’s not a steely leadership,” as Nic Robertson of CNN put it, given the dramatic saga of tanks.
“Under the current conditions, when Washington announced the decision to supply tanks, and its vassals, including Ottawa, are competing over who will supply armored vehicles, especially old ones, to Ukraine, and how many of them… it’s pointless to talk,” Sergei Ryabkov, a possible replacement for the current foreign minister, said. “We are willing to consider any serious
initiatives to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, but so far, no one has articulated them properly,” the deputy foreign minister added. It’s a new excuse in addition to the one that Russia will achieve its “special military operation’s” goals which are bizarre claims of “denazification”, “demilitarization” etc.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry once again blamed the West for its unwillingness to find a diplomatic solution to the war. “As for the European leaders, after the self-revealing confessions of A. Merkel and F. Hollande about the true purpose of the Minsk agreements of 2015, there is practically no trust in them,” the statement reads. In an interview, Angela Merkel explained her intentions concerning the Minsk arrangements as the willingness to buy time for strengthening Ukraine. However, her government provided no weapons to actually prepare for war, if not deter further aggression. By making excuses, she provided propaganda arguments to the Kremlin while damaging her image in Ukraine and elsewhere.
“If we talk about opportunities to negotiate with the West, the EU and the US, unfortunately, have lost the culture of diplomacy and negotiations. They are trying to impose something on everyone to get unilateral benefits, regardless of the interests of the opposite side. It is for this reason that they did not properly accept the proposals on security guarantees put forward by us in December 2021,” Russian diplomats pushed lies about Putin’s intentions. The so-called “security guarantees” for Russia, which hadn’t been threatened by the NATO, let alone Ukraine, was a trick and justification for the escalation. The proposals envisaged the complete retreat of the US from the European continent, as well as exposing CEE countries to Russian threats by pushing them out of NATO. “We have never given up either on an equal dialogue with European partners,” the Russian diplomats lied because they demanded their “security guarantees” be approved by the US and imposed on its European allies. It’s not the way how equal sovereign countries negotiate. So, the boorish style of Russian diplomacy shows that Moscow sees no reason to find a diplomatic solution and will play the blame game.
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