CDS Daily brief (31.01.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• 9 oblasts of Ukraine came under Russian fire on Jan 30. There are killed and injured civilians.
• In the de-occupied territories of Kharkiv Oblast, electricity supply has been restored by 80%.
• Ukraine will be provided with grain and oil crops in full, despite the shortage of electricity.

Military:

• The Russian military command continues the offensive operation in the Lyman and Bakhmut directions. Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked in the Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions, and in the Kupyansk and Zaporizhzhia directions they defended previously captured lines;
• Enemy units continue their attempts to return the lost positions in the Kreminna area;
• Enemy tactical and territorial gains in the Bakhmut are insignificant;
• The “Wagner” PMC’s advance to the northeast of Bakhmut along T1302 should not be considered an attempt to break through to Soledar from the south.
• Russian troops are redistributing their manpower and equipment in the southwest of Donetsk Oblast and are resupplying their forces in the Luhansk Oblast with combat equipment.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian command is preparing an offensive operation in the Lyman direction and continues the deployment of the strike group;
• The enemy is preparing to increase efforts in the Vuhledar area. 3,000-5,000 Russian troops are concentrated near Mariupol and may take part in the offensive on Vuhledar in the coming days.

“Grain initiative”

• On average, slightly more than 3 million tons of agricultural products are exported through the ports of the Odesa region per month, while their capacity is about 6 million tons. The main reason is sabotage by Russian inspectors, who deliberately delay the inspection of ships.

International:

• Boris Johnson urged the West to give Ukraine everything it needed for victory and called to start the NATO membership admission.
• Dmytro Kuleba expects Ukraine to receive 120-140 MBTs in the first wave. France will send a dozen of Caesar howitzers to Ukraine.
• POTUS ruled out sending F-16 to Ukraine, at least for now. Poland will make a decision in concert with the allies, and France may send jets if specific criteria are met. The UK doesn’t believe that “it’s practical” to donate their jets since they have no F-16 but Typhoons and F-35s.
• The Kremlin wants to sentence absentia journalist Alexander Nevzorov to nine years in a penal colony for telling the truth about Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine. Nordic unions will quit the International Federation of Journalists for tolerating the membership of the Russian state media representatives.
• Dmitriy Medvedev proposes to adopt regulations that will legalize the use of Western intellectual property rights “without any licenses and payment of royalties.”
• Russia’s Parliament Vice-Speaker believes that the Russian aggression “became a liberation for the citizens of Ukraine and the Slavic lands from the American colonialists.”

Humanitarian aspect:

On January 30, nine Ukrainian regions came under Russian fire, reported Oblast Military Administrations (OMAs) in the morning consolidated report on January 31.

Consequences of enemy shelling

• About 30 enemy mortar attacks were recorded in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, no casualties or damage was reported.
• Kharkiv Oblast border communities came under Russian fire; apartment buildings, industrial facilities, and a district police department were damaged. A 62-year-old civilian man died as a result of shelling in Vovchansk. An 83-year-old woman was injured.
• On January 30, three civilians in Donetsk Oblast were injured due to the enemy shelling (in Kurakhove, Kostyantynivka and Bakhmut). Private houses and high-rise buildings were damaged in Kurakhove, Avdiivka, Ivanopil and Chasiv Yar. In Toretsk, the Russians targeted at a mine building; no casualties were reported. On January 31, two people, including a minor, were killed in Bakhmut due to Russian shelling.
• The Russians again shelled the point of distribution of   humanitarian   aid   in Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Numerous destructions were recorded, in particular, a school, farm buildings and private houses were damaged. The enemy used prohibited incendiary shells, which caused fires in four private homes. People were not injured.
• The Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was shelled, the village in Myrivska hromada was the most affected.
• The enemy shelled Kherson with artillery, MLRS, mortars and tanks; residential buildings were damaged, mostly in the Ostriv neighborhood.

Energy

In the de-occupied territories of Kharkiv Oblast, electricity supply has been restored by 80%; the pace of work depends on the demining process, which is complicated by the winter period, said Oleg Sinegubov, the head of the Kharkiv OMA at a briefing at the Ukraine-Ukrinform Media Center.

Occupied territories

The Russian military placed military hospitals in two maternity hospitals in Luhansk. Because of this, the care of women in labor was transferred to the Luhansk Regional Perinatal Center, “where there is a catastrophic lack of space and risks and unfavorable conditions for childbirth”, reported the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The Russian military command continues the offensive operation in the Lyman and Bakhmut directions. Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked in the Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions, and in the Kupyansk and Zaporizhzhia directions they defended previously captured lines;
• Enemy units of the 144th motorized rifle division of the 20th Army, the 76th Air assault division of the RF Airborne Forces, and the 4th brigade of the territorial defense of the 2nd Army Corps continue their attempts to return the lost positions in the Kreminna area;
• Enemy tactical and territorial gains in the Bakhmut area should be assessed as insignificant;
• The “Wagner” PMC’s advance to the northeast of Bakhmut along T1302 should not be considered as an attempt to break through to Soledar from the south.

Battleline:

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Novoselivske, Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast, and Yampolivka, Spirne, Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Ivanivske, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast.
• The Defense Forces carried out high-precision strikes on the enemy’s concentration points in Novoaidar, Alchevsk, Kadiivka and the railway bridge in Svitlodolynske on the T0401 Melitopol – Tokmak highway.
• Enemy units of the 144th motorized rifle division of the 20th Army advanced in the Svatove area to a distance of approximately 1 km in the western direction.
• Enemy units of the 100th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps attacked Nevelske.
• Russian troops cut the T0524 highway near Vuhledar and are trying to capture the “Pivdennodonbaska” coal mine in order to surround Vuhledar.

Enemy disposition:

Russian troops are redistributing their manpower and equipment in the south-west of Donetsk Oblast; they have transferred more than 4,000 mobilized personnel to Bilosaraysk Kosa and other villages north of the Mariupol region along the border of the Mariupol and Volnovakha regions. They are resupplying their forces in the Luhansk Oblast with combat equipment.

Escalation indicators:

3,000-5,000 Russian troops are concentrated in the Mariupol district, and they may take part in the offensive on Vuhledar in the coming days.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian command is preparing an offensive operation in the Lyman direction and continues the deployment of the strike group;
• The enemy is preparing to increase efforts in the Vuhledar area.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

• There are 12 enemy warships at sea. Among them are 3 Kalibr cruise missile carriers: two Buyan-M corvettes and one submarine. The possible number of missiles on board is up to 20 units.
• In the waters of the Sea of Azov, there is 1 patrol boat on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports in order to block the Azov coast.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 23 sorties of enemy aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.

“Grain initiative”

• Ukraine has exported 19 million tons of agricultural products through seaports since the beginning of the “grain agreement” (from August 1, 2022). If the capacity of Odesa ports is fully utilized, this figure would be much higher, providing financial opportunities for farmers to finance the sowing and harvesting campaigns of 2023. On average, slightly more than 3 million tons of agricultural products are exported through the ports of the Odesa region per month, while their capacity is about 6 million tons. The main reason for this is sabotage by Russian inspectors, who deliberately delay the inspection of ships in the Bosphorus Strait. Currently, on average, 2-3 vessels are inspected per day, while in September and October 2022, this figure was 6-7. The need is 12-14 vessels per day. Because of this, there are currently 117 vessels waiting in the queue for inspection.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.2022 to 31.01.2023

Personnel – almost 127,500 people (+850)

Tanks – 3,201 (0)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,378 (+9);

Artillery systems – 2,197 (+1);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 454 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 221 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,048 (+7); Aircraft – 293 (0);

Helicopters – 284 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,951 (+4);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 796 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

After the invasion of Russia, more than a third of Kyiv residents switched to the Ukrainian language in communication – these are the results of a survey in “Kyiv Digital”. More than 60,000 users of the application took part in the survey.

Ukraine will be provided with grain and oil crops in full, despite the shortage of electricity, said the Deputy Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, Denys Marchuk, during a briefing at the Ukraine-Ukrinform Media Center. “In general, food security will not be affected by this [electricity deficit]. It may affect the indicators of certain products, but in general, Ukraine will be fully provided for grain and oil crops,” Marchuk said. He noted that the electricity shortage primarily affects the work of processing enterprises. Also, in the conditions of the energy crisis, small and family farms, which cannot independently provide themselves with additional means, suffer the most.

International diplomatic aspect

“For the sake of stability and peace, Ukraine now needs clarity about its position in the Euro- Atlantic security architecture. All our dodging and weaving has ended in slaughter,” Boris Johnson wrote for the Washington Post. He went on by suggesting starting the membership process, “Ukrainians should be given everything they need to finish this war, as quickly as possible, and we should begin the process of admitting Ukraine to NATO and begin it now.”

“I can only note that in the first wave of contributions, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will receive from 120 to 140 modern tanks of Western models: Leopard 2, Challenger 2, M1 Abrams, and we are counting on the Leclerc,” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister said. France will send a dozen Caesar howitzers to Ukraine and deploy 150 military personnel to Poland to train 600 Ukrainian soldiers monthly.

“I think the only thing I would have said is that a lot of this could have been done sooner,” former US Defence Secretary Robert Gates replied to the question of whether he would have advised the POTUS to do anything differently about sending defense aid to Ukraine.

“No,” was Joseph Biden’s answer to the question, “Will the United States provide F-16s to Ukraine?” However, a US official told Politico that “there has been no serious, high-level discussion about F-16s.” At the same time, deputy national security adviser Jon Finer said the Administration would be discussing fighter jets “very carefully” with Kyiv and its allies. So, the President’s comment rather means “no” for now.

“Given that [the UK possesses Typhoon and F-35 fighter, not F-16s], we believe that it’s not practical to send those jets into Ukraine,” the UK Prime Minister’s official spokesman said.

“There are no official discussions on transferring F-16s at the moment,” Poland’s defense minister said. Earlier, the Polish PM said that “any new air force would be organized and possibly transferred in consultation with NATO countries.”

French President Emmanuel Macron said, “by definition, nothing [weapons] is excluded.” However, he set out several “criteria” before making any decision. Those criteria include ruling out possible escalation by hitting the proper Russian territory and that delivery of jets should not result in weakening “the capacities of the French army.”

One of the most famous Russian journalists that left the country shortly after the all-out invasion is accused of “lying” about the deliberate shelling by the Russian military of a maternity hospital in Mariupol and the killing of civilians in Bucha. The prosecutor’s office demanded a Moscow court to sentence in absentia journalist Alexander Nevzorov to nine years in a penal colony for “fakes” [Russian euphemism for truth] about the Russian army. Meanwhile, Finnish, Norwegian, Danish, and Icelandic unions will quit the International Federation of Journalists (which represents 600,000 journalists in 146 countries) in protest against the tolerance towards the membership of the Russian state media representatives, as well as the Russian Union of Journalists for setting up regional journalists’ associations in Ukrainian territories invaded by Russia.

Former Russian President Medvedev suggested adopting regulations on using Western intellectual property rights “without any licenses and payment of royalties.” Dmitriy Medvedev believes that “this, among other things, will be our retaliatory sanctions on their property rights. For everything from movies to industrial software.”

“A special military operation became a liberation for the citizens of Ukraine and the Slavic lands from the American colonialists,” said Russia’s Parliament Vice-Speaker Volodin. He repeated longstanding propaganda cliches about a Nazi coup d’etat, turning Ukraine into an American colony, arming and pushing it against Russia.

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