CDS Daily brief (02.02.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Ukraine’s Prime Minister estimated the damage from the Russian aggression to be as high as €750 billion.
• 9 Oblasts came under Russian fire on February 1. At least 8 civilians died, and 16 were injured;
• Generating capacities of the electric system can meet about 80% of consumer needs;
• 171 healthcare facilities have been completely destroyed, and 1,211 facilities have varying degrees of damage, from 5 to 90%;
• The only mobile operator Lugacom, which provides telephone communication in the temporarily occupied areas of Luhansk Oblast, has cut off mobile Internet for its customers;

Military:

• Russian forces have not yet formed a strike grouping in the Svatove-Kreminna direction but continue to accumulate manpower and combat equipment in the area;
• Russian troops are increasing the number of reconnaissance and sabotage attempts in the Dnipro delta area, trying to simulate the threat of escalation;
• Possible operation situation developments: the enemy does not have sufficient forces to attack the entire front line in Ukraine and will concentrate their efforts on capturing the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts; the threat of enemy attacks from the territory of the Russian Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts in northern and northeastern Ukraine is an attempt to force Ukrainian command to keep forces in the border areas for reaction, thus dispersing the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the eve of a probable Russian offensive operation in the coming months.

The Grain Initiative

• As of February 2, 2023, the ports of Mykolaiv Oblast and port operators are 90 percent ready to start operation and join the grain initiative. However, the main factor for the launch is the consent of the Russian side.

International:

• Vladimir Putin used a media opportunity to rally Russians around his war of aggression and push lies and propaganda about German Leopard tanks. He accused the West of “aggressive” intentions and implicitly threatened it with nuclear weapons.
• The EU has adopted a €500 million aid package under the European Peace Facility and a €45 million assistance measure for the EU Military Assistance Mission.

• The European Parliament has adopted a resolution calling on the EU to start the accession negotiations with Ukraine.
• Ursula von der Leyen announced the establishment of an International Centre for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression in Ukraine in the Hague.
• Austria expels four Russian diplomats, at least two of them likely for espionage.
• Russian disinformation: Russian FM Lavrov claims that western military equipment will be delivered to Ukraine along with the crew.

Humanitarian aspect:

Dmytro Lubinets, the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, reported that the Russian occupation forces abducted Ukrainian children and then made sex videos with them, reports Ukrinform https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-society/3664432-rosiani-znimaut-video-seksualnogo-harakteru-z-vikradenimi-ukrainskimi-ditmi-ombudsmen.html The information comes from a Telegram channel where children were offered for such purposes, and the person “selling” them said they were from Ukraine and had no parents.

Russian attacks

On February 1, nine Ukrainian Oblasts were attacked by the Russian Federation, namely Chernihiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Mykolayiv. Over the past day, Russian invaders have killed at least 8 people and wounded 16 people in Ukraine.

• In Chernihiv Oblast, the enemy fired three rounds during the past day. As a result of a mine hitting the basement, where residents of the village of Yelino were hiding, four people were killed, and one man was wounded.
• In Kherson Oblast, the Russian forces do not stop shelling residential areas along the right bank of the Dnipro River. Four people were injured, and one died. At least 21 towns and villages came under Russian fire. A woman and an emergency worker were injured.
• The situation is difficult in Luhansk Oblasts. A woman was injured in recently liberated Nevske.
• 3 people died and 17 were wounded by the February 1 late-night rocket attack on Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast. The missile hit a 4-story residential building ruining the entire flight of stairs with adjacent apartments. 85% of the rubble had been cleared by the evening of February 2. Two more attacks on downtown Kramatorsk were launched during the day on February 2, injuring 6 people.
• Civilian infrastructure was hit, but no victims were reported in Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolayiv Oblast.

The village of Komyshany in Kherson Oblast came under intensive Russian fire on February 2, Kherson Oblast Military Administration said. Four people, including a 5-year-old boy, got injured. A 44-year-old woman was killed in her home in Komyshany by a morning Russian shelling.

Energy

As of the morning of February 2, electricity consumption has decreased, and accordingly, the deficit in the energy system has decreased, reports NEC “Ukrenergo”. Generating capacities in the system are sufficient to meet about 80% of consumer needs.

The situation in the medical sphere

The full-scale Russian invasion created a critical burden on the Ukrainian healthcare system, Minister of Health Viktor Lyashko said. “Today, 171 healthcare facilities have been completely destroyed, and we will not be able to restore them, so we need to build new ones; 1211 facilities have varying degrees of damage – from 5 to 90%. All this limits Ukrainians’ access to medical care.” Lyashko also said that many Ukrainian medical professionals, both civilian and military, got either injured or killed.

Occupied territories

The only mobile operator Lugacom, which provides telephone communication in the temporarily occupied areas of Luhansk Oblast, has cut off mobile Internet for its customers, the Center of National Resistance at the Ukrainian MOD reported. It was announced that communication would be cut off from February 11 due to the occupation government’s order. Also, the service would be excluded from all mobile service packages. However, according to local residents, mobile Internet disappeared in the region on February 2 already.

Operational situation

General conclusion:

• Russian forces have not yet formed a strike grouping in the Svatove-Kreminna direction but continue to accumulate manpower and combat equipment in the area;
• Russian troops are increasing the number of reconnaissance and sabotage attempts in the Dnipro delta area, trying to simulate the threat of escalation.

Battleline:

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Novoselivske, Ploschanka, Nevske, Chervonopopivka, Dibrova, Kuzmine, Yampolivka and Bilohorivka of Luhansk Oblast and Spirne, Bilohorivka, Vasyukivka, Blahodatne, Krasna Hora, Bakhmut and Klishchiivka in Donetsk Oblast.
• The 488th motorized rifle regiment of the 144th motorized rifle division of the 20th army advanced 800 meters deep into the Ukrainian positions in the Kreminna area (Luhansk Oblast).
• Russian troops advanced slightly near Krasna Hora, on the northeastern and eastern outskirts of Bakhmut, near Opytne and on the southern outskirts of Bakhmut. Units of the “Wagner” PMC have pushed the Ukrainian units back 3-4 km from Blahodatne. They advance northwest from the Klishchiivka area towards Ivanovske and the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut to cut the T0504 Kostyantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Bakhmut highway.

Enemy disposition:

• For the offensive on Vuhledar, the 58th Army deployed up to four brigades (40th and 155th separate mechanized brigades, 136th separate motorized rifle brigade, 113th rifle regiment of mobilization reserve of the 1st Army Corps) and two artillery brigades, which could be accounted up to 20 thousand personnel, 90 tanks, 180-200 IFVs, about 100 guns. After the attacks during 24-30.01, this grouping needs to restore its combat capability.
• The 40th separate marines brigade lost the last contract soldiers who started combat operations against Ukraine in February 2022

Escalation indicators:

• A sharp increase in the intensity of the Russian strike aircraft activity in the Vuhledar area (up to several dozen sorties per day).
• Russian military specialists from operational planning arrived in the Bakhmut area, which led to a change in street fighting tactics.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian Armed Forces do not have sufficient forces to attack the entire front line in Ukraine of 1.5 thousand km length and will concentrate their efforts on capturing the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts;
• The threat of the Russian Armed Forces’ attacks from the territory of the Russian Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts in northern and northeastern Ukraine should be considered an attempt to force the Armed Forces of Ukraine to keep forces in the border areas for reaction, thus dispersing the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the eve of a probable Russian offensive operation in the coming months.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

• The Russian fleet returned some of its ships from the sea. There are ten warships at sea currently. Among them is 1 Kalibr cruise missile carrier, a “Buyan-M” type corvette. The possible number of missiles on board is up to 8 units. There is an assessment that the return is due to the final preparations for the next missile attack on Ukraine. Using a significant number of the Shahid-136 kamikaze drones from the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov is also possible.
• In the Sea of Azov, on the approach to the Mariupol and Berdiansk seaports, one patrol boat is located to block the Azov coast.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 14 sorties of Russian aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.

“The Grain initiative”.

• According to Vitaliy Kim, the head of the Mykolaiv Oblast Military Administration, the ports of Mykolaiv Oblast and port operators are 90 percent ready to join the grain initiative from Mykolaiv Oblast. According to Kim, the main thing is the Russian side’s consent. “The liberation of the Kinburn Peninsula is an additional factor that can open up this possibility. The first and main factor is the consent of the Russians for the ports of the Mykolaiv Oblast to work. After all, we are not shooting at our ships; the danger comes from the Russians,” Vitaly Kim said. According to him, as of February 2, the security situation in the waters of the Mykolaiv region does not allow to start shipping grain from the region’s ports.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.02.23

Personnel – almost 129,030 people (+610)

Tanks – 3,211 (+2)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,382 (0);

Artillery systems – 2,212 (+5);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 458 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 222 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,064 (+3); Aircraft – 293 (0);

Helicopters – 284 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1951 (0); Intercepted cruise missiles – 796 (+0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Due to the military action, 40% of greenhouses in Ukraine have stopped their work, and others continue to work with less output, First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Taras Vysotskyi said.

Speaking about the fight against corruption as one of the requirements for Ukraine from the EU, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal assured that if an official is suspected of dishonesty, he will be fired immediately. “When allegations appear in the media, they must be investigated by the authorities, and if they are confirmed, we take tough personnel decisions,” Shmyhal said, commenting on recent high-profile resignations and investigations.

International diplomatic aspect

Vladimir Putin used a media opportunity to rally Russians around his war of aggression and push lies and propaganda. “It’s unbelievable but true. We are again being threatened by German Leopard tanks,” Vladimir Putin said in a speech to mark the 80th anniversary of the conclusion of the Battle of Stalingrad. “We are not sending our tanks to their borders, but we have the means to respond. It won’t be limited to the use of armored hardware. Everyone must understand this,” the Russian dictator implicitly threatened the West with nuclear weapons.

The German Leopard tank was designed after the Second world war and has been in the service since 1965, so Putin’s allusion to the Nazi invasion has no factual basis. Equally, the untruth is that the “German Leopard tanks” threaten Russia. The illegally annexed territories of Ukraine are not recognized as Russian by the international community, while it supports Ukraine’s right to self-defense, enshrined in the UN Charter. Putin’s claim, “We are not sending our tanks to their borders”, is a lie because the Russian tanks crossed the Ukrainian border in 2014 and then in colossal mass in 2022 (Oryx estimates their number to be 2,600), while NATO countries’ tanks were moved to the CEE after the Russian aggression began and with the sole purpose of deterrence and defense.

During the Russian patriotic holidays, the road signs of Volgograd are changed to Stalingrad. This year, monuments to Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin and Marshal Georgy Zhukov were unveiled. The first one is responsible for millions of Soviet citizens starved to death, repressed, tortured, and deported, not to mention Stalin’s conspiracy with Hitler that triggered the Second World War and the death of many more millions across the globe. Zhukov is known for his inhumane brutality during the war. He was throwing unarmed soldiers of the Red Army on the well- protected and armed German positions. Zhukov’s quote, “countrywomen [Soviet women] will give birth to more [to substitute the fallen],” in the best possible way to describe his ruthlessness.

Both butchers (Stalin and Zhukov) are considered heroes in contemporary Russia, where “pobedobesiye,” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pobedobesie sort of victory mafficking, is one of the key pillars of ideology and propaganda. Two-thirds of Russian have a positive attitude to Joseph Stalin, according to a Levada poll. Russians consider the tyrant the most outstanding historical personality of “all times and peoples.” He is followed by Vladimir Lenin (another bloody tyrant), Alexander Pushkin (Russian poet), Peter I (the first Russian emperor), Vladimir Putin (the current dictator), Yuri Gagarin (the world’s first astronaut) and Georgy Zhukov (one of the bloodiest generals). The most outstanding non-Russian historical personality of “all times and peoples” are Albert Einstein (9th), Napoleon (18th), and Adolf Hitler (20th).

Ukraine’s Prime Minister estimated the damage from the Russian aggression to be as high as €750 billion.

The EU Council has adopted the seventh aid package worth €500 million under the European Peace Facility (EPF) and a new €45 million assistance measure supporting the training efforts of the EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine. The seventh package will now bring the total EU contribution under the EPF for Ukraine to €3.6 billion.

On the eve of the EU-Ukraine summit, the European Parliament unanimously adopted a resolution calling on the EU to “work towards the start of the accession negotiations and to support a roadmap outlining the next steps to enable Ukraine’s accession to the EU single market.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announces establishment of an International Centre for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression in Ukraine in the Hague. “It will coordinate the collection of evidence; it will be embedded in the joint investigation team which is supported by our agency Eurojust,” von der Leyen said.

Austria has revoked the diplomatic status of four Russian diplomats in Vienna, two of which are called personae non gratae due to their engagement in “acts incompatible with their diplomatic status” [espionage].

Russia, relevant news

The Russian Mikron enterprise, which produces chips for international passports, confirmed to the Russian RBC news agency that it has faced a manifold increase in orders and is now working in an intensive mode.

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