CDS Daily brief (03.02.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Since February 24, 2022, the National Police have received inquiries for the disappearance of 9,764 children; currently, 347 children are actively wanted. Information about the kidnapping of a Ukrainian boy for the Russian porn industry turned out to be the Russian PSYOPs.
• 9 Oblasts came under Russian fire on February 2. Killed and wounded civilians were reported.
• The Russian occupation “authorities” disconnected mobile internet for subscribers of the only mobile operator available in the Russia-occupied area of Luhansk Oblast.
• The Ministry of Internal Affairs is forming 8 assault brigades of the National Guard, the National Police and the State Border Service of Ukraine under the general name “Offensive Guard”.
• According to forecasts of the National Bank, the unemployment rate in Ukraine in 2023 is 26%. However, it will steadily decrease due to the expansion of the demand for the labor force against the background of the revival of economic activity.

Military:

• Russian forces increased fire activity in the Kreminna area;
• In the Vuhledar area, the front line has stabilized, and the fighting has taken a positional character;
• The enemy plans to complicate the Ukrainian Forces’ logistics in case of their offensive in the Kupyansk direction. The enemy installed explosive and non-explosive barriers in this area to isolate the territory controlled by Ukraine between Kupyansk and the front line as preparation for possible offensive operations of the Russian Armed Forces in this direction;
• The enemy may use its gains north of Soledar as a launching pad for attacks to the northeast of Siversk direction, potentially to encircle Ukrainian defenses on the right bank of the Siversky Donets River. Another option is an attempt to surround Bakhmut by advancing along the T1302 highway.
• Possible operation situation developments: RF Armed Forces do not have sufficient forces for an offensive in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and are not able to complete the task of occupying them by March 2023; the bill submitted to the Russian State Duma is a clear indicator of preparation for receiving a large number of mobilization resources.

Sea:

• There are indications to assume that the final preparations for the next [sea-based] missile attack on Ukraine are underway. There is also a possibility of deployment of a significant number of the Shahid-136 kamikaze drones from the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov.
• In recent days, the activity of Russian unmanned reconnaissance was observed along the southern coastline, in particular, in the Kherson region.

International:

• The German government issued Leopard-1 export licenses, while Rheinmetall could make 51 Leopard 2A4 and 88 Leopard-1 tanks available for Ukraine.
• The US announced a $2.17 billion assistance that includes GLSDB, enabling Ukraine to target almost all Russia-occupied territories, excluding Crimea. No ATACMS are included yet.
• The EU set the price cap for Russian premium products at $100 a barrel and low-end product at $45 a barrel.
• The EU-Ukraine summit agreed to issue the integration criteria assessment in the spring of 2023, allowing Ukraine to start the membership negotiations this year instead of waiting till the next one.
• The EU will provide €25 million in aid for demining liberated territories of Ukraine.
• The International Olympic Committee believes that Ukraine’s calls to boycott the Paris 2024 Summer Games, should Russian and Belarusian athletes be allowed to compete, “violate” the fundamentals of the Olympic Movement.

Humanitarian aspect:

Children:

Since February 24, 2022, the National Police have received 9,631 appeals related to the disappearance of 9,764 children, said Yaroslav Shanko, deputy head of the Department of Juvenile Prevention of the National Police, at a briefing at the Media Center Ukraine – Ukrinform. “Currently, 347 children are actively wanted. Of them, 323 children went missing on the territory of hostilities”.

Information about the kidnapping of a Ukrainian boy for the porn industry turned out to be the Russian PSYOPs. The situation with disseminating information regarding the alleged use of a Ukrainian child in the Russian porn industry was commented on by the Human Rights Commissioner of the Verkhovna Rada, Dmytro Lubinets. He clarified that on Thursday, information about the alleged kidnapping of Ukrainian children by the Russians and the filming of sex videos with them was widely spread in Telegram channels and various chat rooms. He immediately contacted law enforcement agencies regarding verification and taking the necessary response measures in case of establishing such a fact. The Prosecutor General’s Office stated that the information about the sexual exploitation of a boy kidnapped in Ukraine is untrue.

Cultural heritage:

As of January 25, 2023, 1,271 objects of cultural infrastructure were damaged, and 473 of them were destroyed, reported the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy. “Over the past month, the total number of damaged objects of cultural infrastructure has increased by 82, more than half of which, 44 are objects in the de-occupied territories of Kherson Oblast, and another third are objects in active combat zones of Donetsk Oblast”. The cultural infrastructure received the greatest losses and damages in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Sumy Oblasts.

Russian attacks

On February 2, nine Ukrainian Oblasts were attacked by the Russian Federation. Consequences of the attacks:

• The Russian occupiers attacked Kherson Oblast 65 times. Two killed and nine wounded civilians were reported. In Kherson, shelling impacted a shipbuilding plant, a school, and residential buildings. On the night of February 3, the enemy randomly shelled Kherson, hitting, in particular, a warehouse of pyrotechnics in a shopping center. As a result of the hits, three fires broke out.
• The Russians shelled the civil infrastructure of the Orihiv, Hulyaipole and Vasylivka districts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast on February 2. In total, law enforcement officers received 13 reports of destruction.
• Yesterday, the enemy attacked Ochakiv hromada of Mykolayiv Oblast. A residential building was damaged.
• Rescue work was completed in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, in the aftermath of the February 1 shelling, four people died under the rubble of the building. Another 18 were injured. Two people were rescued from the rubble. On February 2, the Russians again struck Kramatorsk. They wounded 6 people, damaged 18 high-rise [apartment] buildings, 2 medical facilities and a school. Pokrovsk was shelled at night, 7 houses were damaged, no one was injured. In Bakhmut, 1 killed and 2 wounded civilians were reported. A high- rise building, a private home and a shop were damaged. Vuhledar, Novoukrayinka, Paraskoviivka, Rozdolivka, Vasyukivka, and Avdiivka were also under fire. One person died, and 6 were injured in the consequences of the February 3 shelling of Toretsk. 24 houses were damaged, Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of Donetsk OMA, reported.
• Early this morning, the enemy shelled Barvinkove in the Izyum district, Kharkiv Oblast. 2 brothers, 49 and 42 years old, were killed. Their 70-year-old father is injured. During the past day, the Russians attacked the Chuhuyiv (1 wounded), Kupyansk and Kharkiv districts. Many houses were damaged and destroyed.
• The Russians hit Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, at night with heavy artillery. There were no casualties.
• In the morning, there was a mortar shelling of the Esman community of Sumy Oblast. No victims or destruction were reported.

In the Kharkiv Oblast, as a result of the explosion of the “petal” anti-personnel mine, seven teenagers received shrapnel wounds, and five of them were hospitalized.

In the Kyiv Oblast, 1,369 bodies of civilians killed by the Russian invaders have already been discovered, the head of the Kyiv Oblast Police, Andriy Nebytov, reported in Telegram. According to him, “197 bodies of citizens remain unidentified. 300 people are currently considered missing.” Nebytov informed that more than 10,000 criminal proceedings had been opened by the Kyiv Oblast law enforcement officers based on the fact of crimes committed by the Russian military on the territory of the region.

Energy

As of January 3, due to the successfully applied measures, the situation in the power system is improving, and accordingly, the deficit of electric power is decreasing, the press service of the

Ministry of Energy reported. Due to hostilities, the most challenging situation with power outages is in the Donetsk, Kherson and Kharkiv Oblasts. Due to the shortage of generating capacity, the largest share of disconnected consumers is in the Kirovohrad, Volyn and Vinnytsia Oblast.

Occupied territories

In Mariupol, temporarily captured by Russian troops, the Russian invaders are introducing total control over the population, carrying out “sweeps” in the villages near the city. In Pavlopil village they went so far as to check the phones of first-graders at school, reported Petro Andryushchenko, adviser to the Mariupol city mayor, on his Telegram. He also noted that in the occupation administrations of Mariupol, equipment/servers are being installed for full control of the internet traffic of workers and visitors. “The reason is an attempt to combat the constant leakage of information.”

The “Parliament” of the temporarily occupied Crimea voted for the “nationalization” of Ukrainian property, reported the “Krym.Realii” project. The list of “nationalization” includes about 500 objects of tourist and sports infrastructure, banks, and various enterprises.

Eleventh-graders from the temporarily occupied Lysychansk of Luhansk Oblast were taken by the Russian invaders to Tatarstan, allegedly to prepare and pass a unified exam; their parents stayed behind, the Luhansk regional state administration reported.

The only mobile operator operating in Luhansk Oblast’s temporarily occupied areas has disconnected mobile internet for subscribers. It was announced that the internet would be removed from all tariff plans from February 11 by order of the Russian occupation authorities. However, according to locals, mobile internet has already disappeared in the region yesterday. “In this way, the Russians are trying to curb the partisan movement so that the residents of the region do not report on the movement of the occupiers’ equipment and do not communicate with their relatives who are in safe regions of Ukraine and can read and watch operative news from the front in the media,” – noted Luhansk OMA.

Operational situation

General conclusion:

• Russian forces increased fire activity in the Kreminna area;
• The enemy is considering complicating the logistics of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in case of their offensive in the Kupyansk direction. The installation of explosive and non- explosive barriers in this area is considered to be an enemy’s attempt to isolate the territory controlled by Ukraine between Kupyansk and the front line for preparation of possible enemy offensive operations plans in this direction;
• The enemy may use its gains north of Soledar as a launching pad for attacks to the northeast in the direction of Siversk, potentially to support the encircling Ukrainian defenses on the right bank of the Siversky Donets River. Another scenario could be an enemy’s attempt to cover Bakhmut by advancing along the T1302 highway.

Battleline:

• Units of the Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Stelmakhivka, Nevske and Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast and Verkhnyokamianske, Mykolaivka, Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske and Kurdyumivka in Donetsk Oblast.
• Enemy units of the 59th tank regiment of the 144th motorized rifle division, in coordination with the Airborne Forces units, pushed back Ukrainian Defense Forces for a kilometer in the Kreminna area. The 144th motorized rifle division almost approached Yampolivka, and its assault groups began attacking Ukrainian positions near Dibrova.
• Russian troops are preparing to destroy road infrastructure and to mine bridges, dams and crossings near Tavilzhanka.
• The enemy is gradually advancing to the northeast of Bakhmut in the area of Rozdolivka. The detachments of the “Wagner” PMC captured the villages of Sacco and Vanzetti and Mykolaivka. They are trying to surround Krasna Hora from the direction of Paraskoviivka and Blahodatne and are advancing in the urban areas on the northern and eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.
• The Joint Forces of Ukraine hold their positions in Ivanovske, but the PMC mercenaries have advanced within two kilometers of the T0504 route.
• Units of the 5th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps, the tank battalion of the 103rd motorized rifle regiment of the 150th motorized rifle division (the 8th Army of the Southern Military District) operate unsuccessfully in the Maryinka area.
• In the Vuhledar area, the front line has stabilized, and the fighting has taken a positional character.

Enemy disposition:

• After the unsuccessful assault on Vuhledar and significant losses, the Russian command transferred to this section of the front the 72nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 3rd Army Corps and several battalions from the military units of the 36th Army of the Eastern Military District.

Escalation indicators:

• Increasing activity by units of the 144th motorized rifle division of the 20th Army in the Kreminna area.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation do not have sufficient forces for an offensive in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and are not able to complete the task of occupying them by March 2023;
• Deputies of the Russian State Duma Andriy Kartopolov and Andriy Krasov submitted a bill that allows commanders of military units and commandants of Russian garrisons to arrest personnel, send them to the guardhouse and keep them there for up to 10 days without a court decision, which is a clear indicator of preparation for receiving a large number of mobilization resources.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

• The enemy keeps 10 warships at sea. Among them are two Kalibr cruise missile carriers: Buyan-M corvettes. The possible number of missiles on board is up to 16 units. There is an assumption that the final preparations for the next missile attack on Ukraine are underway. There is also a possibility of deployment of a significant number of the Shahid- 136 kamikaze drones from the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov.
• The basing of two “Buyan-M” missile corvettes and one landing ship of project 1171 in the port of Feodosia (Crimea) is noted, indicating the dispersion of missile carriers and landing ships of the Russian Federation due to the threat of attacks. As a rule, these ships are based in Sevastopol.
• There is 1 enemy patrol boat in the waters of the Sea of Azov, on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports in order to block the Azov coast.
• In recent days, the activity of Russian unmanned reconnaissance was observed along the southern coastline, in particular, in the Kherson region. On Thursday, one of the drones launched by the enemy from the sea over the Mykolaiv Oblast was shot down.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 18 sorties of enemy aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 03.02.23

Personnel – almost 129,870 people (+840)

Tanks – 3,215 (+4)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,388 (+6);

Artillery systems – 2,215 (+3)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 460 (+2); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 222 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,068 (+4); Aircraft – 294 (+1);

Helicopters – 284 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1952 (+1); Intercepted cruise missiles – 796 (+0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

• The Ministry of Internal Affairs is forming 8 assault brigades of the National Guard, the National Police and the State Border Service of Ukraine under the general name “Offensive Guard”. Volunteers, motivated people who will take part in the liberation of Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea, are invited to join the ranks.

• The Ministry of Defense has agreed with investors and stakeholders on the location of the center for maintenance, ongoing repairs, modernization, and personnel training related to the operation of Bayraktar, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported in Telegram. The Cabinet of Ministers predicts the launch and first production of the Bayraktar UAV plant in Ukraine in 2025. The planned amount of investments in the construction of a plant and a center for servicing, repair and modernization will be 95.5 million dollars over ten years period. The construction of the plant and the arrangement of the Center involves the transfer of high technologies and the localization of the production of the most modern UAVs, the effectiveness of which has been tested and proven in practice.

• According to forecasts of the National Bank, the unemployment rate in Ukraine in 2023 will be 26%. “In the future, it will decrease thanks to the expansion of the demand for labor force against the background of the revival of economic activity,” the report says. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 20% in 2024 and 17.6% in 2025. It is noted that unemployment will remain higher compared to usual numbers, given that restoring production capacities and logistics routes will take a lot of time. Nominal household incomes will increase, mainly due to the adaptation of the real sector to work in conditions of high risks and significant spending on defense and security. At the same time, wages will grow slowly in real terms due to substantial inflation: in 2023 – by 3.3%, and in the next two years – by 6.5% and 4.3%, respectively.

International diplomatic aspect

“Export authorization has been granted,” the German government spokesman confirmed a decision to greenlight a possible Leopard-1 delivery to Ukraine. Though Steffen Hebestreit didn’t specify the number of tanks and timeframe, the German media reported Rheinmetall could make 51 Leopard-2A4 and 88 Leopard-1 tanks available for Ukraine.

The US has announced a $2.17 billion worth assistance package that includes Ground-launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB), two HAWK air defense firing units, ammunition for HIMARS, 120mm and 155mm artillery rounds, 181 MRAPS, 250 Javelins, 190 heavy machine guns with thermal imagery sights and more. However, no ATACMS are included. The GLSDB will double the range allowing the UAF to target almost all Russia-occupied territories, excluding Crimea. Earlier, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems offered to provide two MQ-9 Reaper drones to Ukraine for $1 should the US government issue a license.

The EU has agreed on a price cap for Russian premium products, such as diesel, at $100 a barrel and that for low-end products, including fuel oil, at $45 a barrel. Russia’s monthly budget revenues from oil and gas fell in January to their lowest level since August 2020, Reuters reported. Monthly tax and customs revenue from energy sales declined 46% in a year. The budget deficit could hit $78 billion (3.8% of GDP) should it not the prices for Russian oil recover. However, the Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews expects a 15% to 35% increase in the volume of oil exported from the Black Sea ports in January. Due to restrictions violations by Greece, Italy, and Spain, there was almost no impact of the embargo introduced in December.

The EU-Ukraine summit reiterated the willingness of both sides to proceed on the membership roadmap. Though there was no shortcut announced in this process, the EU agreed to give it an assessment on the progress of the “fulfillment of the conditions specified in the Commission’s opinion on Ukraine’s membership application as part of its regular enlargement package in 2023” in spring 2023. It would allow Ukraine to start the membership negotiations process this year instead of waiting until the next one.

“A large spread of mines and other explosive ordnances is being found in territories liberated by Ukrainian Armed Forces. We will provide up to €25 million to support demining efforts in these endangered areas. Protecting civilians and their livelihood is a priority,” EU High Representative/Vice-President Josep Borrell announced.

The International Olympic Committee believes that Ukraine’s calls to boycott the Paris 2024 Summer Games, should Russian and Belarusian athletes be allowed to compete, “violate” the fundamentals of the Olympic Movement. So far, Russian invaders have killed at least 184 Ukrainian athletes and damaged 320 sports facilities, including 87 entirely or partially destroyed. Recently, a Russian volunteer for the war of the Kyokushin Federation of Russia was killed in Ukraine. He isn’t the only athlete who is taking part in the war. Moreover, among potential participants of the Olympic games are members of the Russian CSKA (Central Sports Club of the Army), not to mention that sport in totalitarian regimes is one of the most effective propaganda tools.

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