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CDS Daily brief (04.02.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

  • Ukraine returned 116 defenders in another large exchange of POWs.
  • The number of refugees from Ukraine registered for temporary protection in Europe as of January 31, 2023, amounted to almost 5 million people.
  • 9 Oblasts came under Russian fire on February 3. Killed and wounded civilians were reported.
  • Due to the technological accident at one of the high-voltage substations in Odesa, which the Russians had fired upon earlier, almost 500,000 residents of Odesa and the Odesa Oblast are left without electricity.

Military:

  • The enemy intensified attempts to challenge the Ukrainian air defense system. It proves the effectiveness of air defense. It also indicates the enemy ground groupings’ likely preparation for further actions that will require support and cover from the air;
  • The withdrawal of the remnants of the “Wagner” PMC detachments from under Bakhmut is underway.
  • The enemy intensified combat operations in the section of the front between Siversk and Bakhmut.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy’s intensification of hostilities in the Vuhledar area should be expected. It is to gain control over the Donbas – Crimea railway, as the enemy’s preparation for an offensive requires concentration of supplies, only possible through the railways.
  • The deployment of a network of small warehouses would allow the enemy to operate simultaneously in several directions but with small forces. This logistics system is not capable of supporting a large-scale offensive.

International:

  • Turkish firms exported to Russia $18.5 million worth of US-sanctioned dual-use items.
  • France and Italy agreed to send the SAMP/T-MAMBA air defense system to Ukraine this spring. Portugal will send an undisclosed number of Leopard 2.
  • The US Attorney General has authorized the first-ever transfer of confiscated Russian assets to Ukraine.
  • The OCCRP reported about a group within the Russian Parliament that created a network of political analysts, journalists, activists, and academics who helped push the Kremlin’s interests abroad and organize illegal visits for European politicians and business people to Crimea.
Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of February 4, 2023, more than 1,379 Ukrainian children are victims due to the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation. According to the official information of the juvenile prosecutors, 460 children died, and more than 919 were injured of various degrees of severity, the Prosecutor General’s Office reported. It became known that on January 31, a 12- year-old boy died due to shelling by the Russians in Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast.

3,126 educational institutions were damaged due to bombing and shelling by the Russian armed forces. 337 of them were completely destroyed.

POWs

Another large exchange of POWs took place on February 4. 116 Ukrainian defenders returned home. Of them, 114 are privates and sergeants, and two are officers. Among them are personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, National Guard, Territorial Defense, Navy, border guards, State Emergency Service. In addition, Ukraine returned the bodies of two foreign volunteers and the body of a Ukrainian volunteer soldier who served in the French Foreign Legion and returned to defend Ukraine after the start of a full-scale Russian invasion. All Ukrainian fighters freed from Russian captivity on Saturday are in unsatisfactory condition; they are in the hospital, the deputy head of the State Security Service, Dmytro Usov, said. Treatment and rehabilitation await them ahead.

“In total, since February 24, our team managed to return 1,762 Ukrainian men and women from Russian captivity. And I also thank all those involved in helping our people after their return,” said President Zelensky in his evening address.

Ukrainian displaced persons

According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, the number of refugees from Ukraine registered for temporary protection in Europe as of January 31, 2023, amounted to 4 million 823.33 thousand people. The largest number of refugees with temporary protection status is in Poland – 1 million 563.39 thousand; their number increased by 55.5 thousand in two months. In Germany, the number of registered Ukrainians decreased by more than 140 thousand in two months. Currently, it is 881.4 thousand. The third place in welcoming Ukrainians is the Czech Republic, where the number of them registered for temporary protection increased by 22.7 thousand from the end of November to 485.1 thousand.

Russian attacks

On February 3, nine Ukrainian Oblasts were attacked by the Russian Federation. Consequences of the attacks:

  • In the Chernihiv Oblast, the enemy carried out three shellings during the day, hitting the Chernihiv and Novgorod-Siversky districts with mortars. 55 explosions were recorded. There are no losses and destructions.
  • In the Sumy Oblast, the Russians shelled the Bilopillia community with mortars. No human losses or destruction of infrastructure were reported.
  • Russian troops shelled civilian infrastructure in 26 towns and villages during the day in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 36 reports were received about the destruction of housing and infrastructure facilities.
  • In the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the enemy shelled the Marhanets community. At night, the Russians fired with barrel artillery. There are no casualties or damage.
  • Russian troops shelled numerous towns and villages of the Kharkiv Oblast. In Dvorichna yesterday afternoon, a direct hit was recorded in an apartment on the second floor of a residential building. Private houses and farm buildings were also damaged. No casualties were reported.
  • In Donetsk Oblast, two civilians were killed, and 14 were injured in one day. There was a massive shelling of the old part of Avdiivka in the morning. During the night, Russian troops launched a rocket attack on Kramatorsk, fired two rockets, and hit an industrial zone. The premises of an industrial enterprise and a farm were damaged. No victims were reported. The day before, the enemy shelled the central part of Toretsk. 34 houses, 8 objects of community facilities were damaged (two kindergartens, an outpatient medical facility, a library, a post office, a newspaper editorial office, an administrative office, and a cultural center). One person died. The Russians also shelled the Kurakhove community. 8 private houses were damaged. Three people were injured. The situation near Bakhmut, Soledar and Vuhledar remains difficult.
  • Over the past 24 hours, Russian troops fired 47 times on populated areas of Kherson Oblast, resulting in one person being killed and three injured. Kherson suffered enemy attacks 6 times; Russian shells hit the residential sector and a private enterprise. In Lvove village, a school, a shop, a village council, and residential buildings were damaged.
Energy

Due to the technological accident in Odesa, emergency shutdowns have been applied in Odesa and nearby areas, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reports. The accident occurred at one of the high-voltage substations, which the Russians had fired upon earlier. As a result, almost 500,000 residents of Odesa and the Odesa Oblast are left without electricity. “It is impossible to restore power supply quickly, particularly to critical infrastructure. Within a day, all the powerful generators available at the Ministry of Energy and a gas turbine power plant with a capacity of 25 MW, provided by the USA, should be brought to Odesa. I also tasked the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to contact Turkey for additional support in the form of power-plant vessels,” Shmyhal noted.

Occupied territories

“The [Russian] invaders are limiting access to social and humanitarian aid in the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The list of recipients of humanitarian aid has decreased, and its [humanitarian aid] amount has decreased. To receive some types of financial aid, a passport of the Russian Federation is already required,” the legitimate mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, wrote in his Telegram channel. Fedorov added that, despite promises, Russin occupations authorities provide “social” coal only to a few categories of recipients, and additional obstacles are invented for those who want to receive social assistance. For example, they are forced to bring copies of their neighbors’ documents to confirm the need for financial assistance.

Operational situation General conclusion:
  • The enemy intensified attempts to challenge the elements of the Defence Forces’ air defense system. It proves the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense and indicates the likely preparation of the enemy ground groupings for further actions that will require support and cover from the air;
  • In the relatively narrow area between Siversk and Bakhmut, the Defense Forces have an excessive number of troops from at least ten military structures, making combat C2 and logistics complex.
Battleline:
  • The Defense Forces units repelled the enemy attacks in the areas of Grekivka, Nevske, Kreminna and Dibrova in the Luhansk Oblast and Verkhnyokamianske, Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut and Ivanovske in the Donetsk Oblast.
  • With the forces of the 76th Air assault division and the 13th BARS detachment, the enemy is trying to develop an offensive in the Lyman direction, attacking from Chornopopivka, Zhytlivka, and Kreminna through Dibrova to the northwest, west, and southwest. Ukrainian Defense Forces hold their positions. They repulsed the enemy assault on Yampolivka.
  • During the last two days, the enemy broke through the front line on a section of about 4- 5 km and captured Mykolaivka and Sacco and Vanzetti villages.
  • The 241st brigade of Territorial Defense of the Ukrainian Defense Forces was redeployed to the north, counterattacked the enemy in Blahodatne and liberated part of it. The 93rd separate mechanized brigade arrived in the area between Siversk and Bakhmut and stopped the enemy’s advance.
  • The enemy continues to advance in the valley in the Klishchiivka area to the south and west of the village, approaching Ivanivske and the T0504 highway. The Ukrainian Joint Forces deployed up to three brigades, covering the direction of Chasiv Yar.
Enemy disposition:
  • The withdrawal of the remnants of the “Wagner” PMC detachments from under Bakhmut is underway.
Escalation indicators:
  • The enemy intensified combat operations in the section of the front between Siversk and Bakhmut.
Possible operation situation developments:
  • The preparation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation for an offensive operation requires the concentration of significant supplies, which is only possible with railways and reliable and effective air defense. Therefore, we should expect an intensification of hostilities in the Vuhledar area (control over the Donbas – Crimea railway) and the deployment of warehouses beyond the reach of long-range, high-precision systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
  • The deployment of a network of small warehouses would allow the further use of the Russian Armed Forces simultaneously in several directions, but with small forces (several brigades), because the enemy logistics system is not capable of ensuring a large-scale offensive.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

  • to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
  • to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

  • The enemy has 9 warships at sea. There are no Kalibr cruise missile carriers.
  • In the waters of the Sea of Azov, there is one patrol boat on the approaches to the Mariupol and Berdyansk seaports in order to block the Azov coast.
  • Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 22 sorties of enemy aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.
  • On the night of February 4, 2023, the enemy again shelled the port of Ochakiv with anti- aircraft missiles from positions on the Kinburn spit.
  • The Russians also continue to terrorize the coastal Kherson region and attack islands in the Dnieper floodplains. On February 2, pro-Russian Telegram channels spread the video footage of shelling and subsequent fire on one of the islands opposite Kherson. However, it is located closer to the left bank of the Dnieper and, at least until recently, the firing positions of the Russian Federation were located there. The island is called “Livoberezhny No. 2”; it is located across from the Mali Potyomkinsky and Kherson shipyards. Territorially, it is “sandwiched” between the Dnipro and Konka rivers. Kherson is less than

1.5 km in a straight line; the nearest villages on the left bank are Kardashinka, Oleshki and Hola Prystan.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.02.23

Personnel – almost 130,590 people (+720)

Tanks – 3,218 (+3)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,394 (+6);

Artillery systems – 2,220 (+5)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 460 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 225 (+3); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,081 (+13); Aircraft – 294 (0);

Helicopters – 284 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,956 (+4); Intercepted cruise missiles – 796 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

International diplomatic aspect

Thirteen Turkish firms exported a “total of roughly $18.5 million worth of items,” including machinery, electronics, spare parts, and other items that Russia needs for its military in violation of the US sanctions, WSJ reported. Turkey is balancing between Ukraine and Russia, selling weapons to Ukraine and boosting trade, including dual-use goods to Russia. Ankara has closed the Straits for the Russian Black Sea Navy but deepens energy cooperation with Russia, willing to become an energy hub. Beyond that dualism, Turkey is blocking Sweden’s NATO membership process while it is being blocked from acquiring the US F-16.

France and Italy agreed to send the SAMP/T-MAMBA air defense system to Ukraine this spring. “It is the best long-range European anti-missile system,” the joint statement reads. The system will counter drone, missile, and fighter jet threats. Portugal will send an undisclosed number of Leopard 2 MBTs to Ukraine, Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa announced.

“Today, I am announcing that I have authorized the first-ever transfer of confiscated Russian assets for use in Ukraine,” US Attorney General Merrick Garland announced. Earlier, a Manhattan federal court district judge allowed the prosecutor’s office to seize $5.4 million in assets belonging to Russian Konstantin Malofeev. Known as the Orthodox (Christian) oligarch, Konstantin Malofeev has been financing Russian covert and overt war in Donbas since 2014.

The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) reported about a group within the Russian Parliament that created a network of political analysts, journalists, activists, and academics who helped them push the Kremlin’s interests abroad. The network arranged trips to the illegally annexed Crimea for European politicians and business people. The group paid politicians thousands of euros to put forward pro-Russian resolutions in European legislatures, an investigation by Eesti Ekspress, in partnership with OCCRP, IrpiMedia, iStories, and Profil, has found.


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