CDS Daily brief (05.02.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• The Russian military attacked 10 Ukrainian Oblasts on February 4. There are victims and damage to the civilian infrastructure;
• The European Court of Human Rights is considering eight interstate cases against the Russian Federation, including 5 filed by Ukraine;
• Electricity consumption is increasing due to lower temperatures. 40% of Odesa residents remain without electricity following a large-scale accident on February 3;

Military:

• The Russian military command tries to prepare conditions for the operational encirclement of Siversk;
• The Russian forces try to cut the T0504 Chasiv Yar – Bakhmut road;
• The slowing of the advance of the enemy 150th motorized rifle division in the Avdiyivka and Maryinka indicates a lack of combat potential to maintain the necessary pace of the offensive;
• Russian conducts an information operation to convince the Ukrainian side to prepare an offensive on Zaporizhzhia.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy is unable to conduct several offensive operations in different directions simultaneously and will not be able to do so in the future;
• The Russian military command will continue offensive actions in the Vuhledar area to strengthen control over the Donbas – Crimea railway;
• Preparation of a counteroffensive operation in the Lyman direction is underway; its start should be expected in mid-February.
• Crimea: Accumulation of Russian military equipment and troops on the western coast of Crimea is noted.

International:

• Lithuanians crowdfunded €6 million for air defense radars for Ukraine.
• Ukraine’s Defense Minister promised not to target Russian territory with US weapons.
• The Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Gundyayev was a KGB agent, according to the police archive documents obtained by a Swiss newspaper.
• Russia and Iran are planning to set up production of Shahed-136 drones in the Republic of Tatarstan.
• Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said he drew a promise from Vladimir Putin not to kill Vladimir Zelensky.

Humanitarian aspect:

Two more children, illegally taken to Russia, have returned to Ukraine. The thirteen- and fifteen- year-old girls and their mother were deported from Luhansk Oblast to Ryazan (Russia). In Russia, the mother died, and the children ended up in an orphanage. In Ukraine, their older sister took them into her care.

The European Court of Human Rights is considering eight interstate cases against the Russian Federation, and more than 16,700 individual applications against the Russian Federation are still pending in the court, Margarita Sokorenko, commissioner for the ECHR, reported. Two of them were filed by Georgia, five by Ukraine, and one jointly by Ukraine and the Netherlands.

Russian attacks

The Russian army carried out attacks on 10 regions of Ukraine on February 4. According to the information of regional military administrations about the situation in the regions of Ukraine as of 9:00 a.m. Sunday, February 5, the situation was the following:

• Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts in the north of Ukraine were shelled with artillery and mine throwers. Several munitions were dropped from UAVs in Sumy Oblast. No victims were reported.
• The civilian infrastructure of at least 16 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast came under Russian fire. Residential properties were ruined.
• Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast came under heavy artillery fire twice. There are no victims. The power line was damaged.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, shelling was recorded in Kupyansk and Vovchansk districts. No victims are reported. There is damage to civilian objects and infrastructure.
• The situation remains difficult in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. Russia used cluster ammunition to attack residential parts of Chasiv Yar. 4 people are reported dead and 10 injured in Donetsk Oblast.
• Ochakiv community in Mykolayiv Oblast was attacked with artillery. No victims or damage is reported.
• In Kherson Oblast, the Russian forces carried out 60 attacks with mortars, barrel and rocket artillery. One person was injured, and another person died. 98 people were evacuated from the liberated territories of Kherson Oblast, 20 of them are children and four are citizens with reduced mobility.

Russian military started attacking Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of February 5. Two S-300 rockets hit downtown Kharkiv at around 8:20, severely damaging a university and a residential building. Three men and a woman were injured, and the woman was hospitalized.

Energy

As of the morning of Sunday, February 5, electricity consumption is gradually increasing due to the cold weather. A sharper increase in electricity consumption is expected to occur on February 6, with the start of the work week.

Stabilization outages meant to avoid accidents caused by equipment overload were introduced in some districts of Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast on February 5, Ukrenergo said. The Fastiv and Vasylkiv districts of Kyiv Oblast are temporarily out of electricity due to an accident.

At the same time, after repairs, two units at thermal power plants returned to the network. However, one unit was put into emergency repair. Electricity is also imported from other countries almost all day long.

According to PM Denys Shmyhal, the situation remains difficult in Odesa, where 40% of residential housing has no electricity. The work to restore the supplies is underway. 39 powerful generators are also on the way to Odesa.

Due to the critical situation with Odesa’s electricity supply, holidays have been announced in educational institutions on Monday and Tuesday, February 6 and 7, Odesa Municipal Council said.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The Russian military command tries to prepare conditions for the operational encirclement of Siversk;
• The Russian forces try to cut the T0504 Chasiv Yar – Bakhmut road;
• The slowing of the advance of the 150th motorized rifle division of the 8th Army in the Avdiyivka and Maryinka areas indicates a lack of combat potential to maintain the necessary pace of the offensive;
• Russian conducts an information operation for the purpose of convincing the Ukrainian side to prepare an offensive on Zaporizhzhia.

Battleline:

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Kreminna, Grekivka, Nevske, Dibrova and Shipylivka of Luhansk Oblast and Verkhnyokamianske, Blahodatne, Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske and Klishchiivka in Donetsk Oblast.
• The Russian forces attacked in the vicinity of Dvorichne (Kharkiv Oblast) and pushed Ukrainian Defence Forces units out of the village’s western outskirts. Russian forces also attacked in the direction of Stelmakhivka (Luhansk Oblast).
• Russian units continued their mostly unsuccessful attacks in the area of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast. However, they advanced westward in the area of the village of Sil, advanced 1 km between Ivanovske and Stupochky and are now 2.5 km away from the T0504 highway. Mercenaries of “Wagner” PMC continued their assault near Rozdolivka and Vasyukivka.
• Units of the 58th Army continued unsuccessful attempts to attack in the area of Vuhledar to advance north of Mykilske in the direction of the T0524 highway.
• A large-scale fire broke out at the oil products warehouse of the enterprise in Borsovka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia, which supposedly manufactures metal structures for the repair of the Kerch bridge in Crimea, which will slow down the bridge’s restoration process, which, in turn, will complicate the logistics of the Russian group in southern Ukraine.

Enemy disposition:

• The Russian military is increasing its grouping in the Zaporizhzhia direction, deploying concentration areas along the roads from Mariupol to positions on the front line. Up to 10,000-15,000 military personnel are concentrated in the Mariupol area, and the grouping size in the Mariupol area is estimated at 30,000 people.

• The 80th separate motorized rifle brigade (Arctic) of the 14th Army Corps of the Northern Fleet was deployed in the Tavriysk direction.
• The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation included the occupied [parts] of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in the military land zone of responsibility of the Southern Military District.

Escalation indicators:

• The build-up of enemy groupings in the Lyman and Mariupol directions, the concentration of infantry and artillery in the Vuhledar area;
• The commander of the “special military operation”, General Gerasimov, makes efforts to integrate regular units of the Russian Armed Forces, staffed by contract servicemen, mobilized personnel, separatist formations of the “DPR and LPR”, “volunteer battalions”, BARS forces, Cossack and Chechen units, mercenaries of various PMCs into the traditional hierarchical structure;
• The occupation authorities and their families are preparing to leave the Troitsky district northwest of Luhansk Oblast.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy has not demonstrated the ability to conduct several offensive operations in different directions simultaneously and will not be able to do so in the future;
• The Russian military command will continue offensive actions in the Vuhledar area to strengthen control over the Donbas – Crimea railway;
• Preparation of a counteroffensive operation in the Lyman direction is underway; its start should be expected in mid-February.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

• Due to difficult weather conditions, the enemy returned part of his ships to the bases of Sevastopol and Feodosia. The storm intensified; it also affected aviation use in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, where no flights were observed. The enemy has 5 warships at sea. There are no Kalibr cruise missile carriers.

• Accumulation of Russian military equipment and troops on the western coast of Crimea is noted. All these groupings have several S-300/400 anti-aircraft systems and Pantsir anti- aircraft missile defense systems attached to them.
• Ideological and psychological influence on the population of Crimea is increasing to heroize the participants in the war against Ukraine. The efforts concern a significant part of the peninsula’s population, from kindergartens to pensioners. A surge of activity was observed last week and was devoted to the search for analogies between today and the Battle of Stalingrad, which ended 80 years ago. The activities of the volunteer movement on the occupied peninsula, whose work is focused on the supply of medical equipment, Mavik quadcopters, warm clothes and camouflage nets for the “second army of the world”, are strongly encouraged. The Crimean government also directed funds from the “nationalization” of 500 Crimean objects that belonged to foreign subjects (mainly citizens of Ukraine).
• In the Sea of Azov, on the approach to the Mariupol and Berdiansk seaports, 1 patrol boat is located to block the Azov coast.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, eight sorties of Russian aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.
• A Romanian barge loaded with 860 tons of wheat sank in the port of Reni on Saturday morning. During loading operations, water began to flow into the engine room. Five Romanian sailors escaped, but they could not prevent the sinking of the barge. The vessel belongs to a Romanian company based in Constanta.
• Due to the Russian side blocking the “grain corridor” by artificially slowing down the inspection, the export of Ukrainian agricultural products decreased by 1.3 million tons in January, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reports.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.2022 to 05.02.2023

Personnel – almost 131,290 people (+700)

Tanks – 3,220 (+2)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,405 (+11);

Artillery systems – 2,226 (+6);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 460 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 227 (+2); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,091 (+10); Aircraft – 293 (0);

Helicopters – 284 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,958 (+2); Intercepted cruise missiles – 796 (+0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The head of the Servant of the People parliamentary faction, David Arakhamia, said that the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine would be headed by the head of the MOD’s Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, and the current Defense Minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, will be

transferred to the position of Minister of Strategic Industries. “War dictates personnel policy. Time and circumstances require strengthening and regrouping,” Arakhamia said.

An internal audit of all procurement systems is ongoing at the Ministry of Defense, Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told a press conference today. The audit should be over in a week, and its results will be presented for appropriate decisions. Reznikov said that the Ministry has also initiated a government audit. In addition, the Accounting Chamber of the Verkhovna Rada is ready to start an audit of international technical assistance. The minister emphasized that such an inspection is important for Ukraine and its partners. Reznikov also said that a reorganization meant to ensure procurement in the Ministry is also taking place.

International diplomatic aspect

“Lithuania is only 3 million people, but this week we crowdfunded €6 million to buy air defense systems for Ukraine. No sign of fatigue here. We will stand with Ukraine until victory is achieved,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis twitted. Andrius Tapinas, who launched the project, tweeted that more than a million euros were collected in just an hour.

“We always tell our partners officially that we will not use weapons supplied by foreign partners to fire on Russian territory. We only fire on Russian units on temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory,” Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said during the press conference. However, such a position failed to change the Biden Administration’s unwillingness to provide Ukraine with ATACMS (range of 300 km), so the inclusion of Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (150 km) into the latest aid package is progress in the right direction. Even without targeting the proper Russian territory, ATACMS would have given Ukraine the capability to hit Russian targets in any illegally occupied territory. With GLSDB, some remote parts of Luhansk and Donetsk regions are out of range, and the Crimean Peninsula as a whole.

The Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) used to be a KGB agent while working as Moscow’s representative to the World Council of Churches in Geneva, Swiss Tages-Anzeiger wrote. This fact is based on the archives of the Federal Police, which the journalists had gotten access to. It’s not surprising because the contemporary Russian Orthodox Church was set up by Joseph Stalin in 1943. The key reasons were to boost the morale of Soviet subjects who had been denied the right to be religious for decades and to undermine the Nazi argument about the communist suppression of religion in the Soviet Union that had pushed the clergy and believers to support the Germans. After the war, the KGB increased its involvement in the ROC affairs. Though the last limitations on religious activities were canceled after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the ROC had been enjoying a privileged status. At the same time, other confessions and religions were heavily suppressed. Now, the Kremlin persecutes Crimean Tatar religious organizations, labeling them as extremists. However, they had enjoyed (before the illegal annexation of Crimea) and still enjoy (on the mainland) freedom of action in Ukraine. The Kremlin increased its crusade against Christian confessions, most recently the Jehovah’s Witnesses.

According to the WSJ, Russia and Iran plan to set up production of Shahed-136 drones in the Republic of Tatarstan. It’s turned out that Russia isn’t capable of designing and producing either

indigenous advanced UAVs or scale production of more primitive ones; therefore, it relays on Iran-made drones.

“In the past, Putin has made promises not to occupy Crimea, not to violate Minsk agreements, not to invade Ukraine, yet he has done all of these things. Do not be fooled: he is an expert liar. Every time he has promised not to do something, it has been exactly part of his plan,” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister replied to the former Israeli Prime Minister’s statement. Naftali Bennett said that in the first weeks of the all-out invasion, he drew a promise from Vladimir Putin not to kill Vladimir Zelensky. It’s hard to believe that, given Putin’s track record, anyone can take his words for face value.

Russia, relevant news

In January, Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell due to the introduction of a cap on oil prices by 30%, or about $8 billion, compared to the same period in 2022 – Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

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