Центр оборонних стратегій

CDS Daily brief (06.02.23) | CDS comments on key events

Download in PDF


Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

  • Russian forces continue shelling Ukrainian residential areas.
  • Three models of the special tribunal for the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine have been developed.
  • Ukraine’s defense minister might resign and be moved to the Ministry of Strategic Industries, while the Chief of Military Intelligence could get his job. However, such a rotation requires changes to the law that secures civil control over the military. Moreover, there’s growing criticism of the decision among the experts and the general public, which is shared by MPs who threaten not to vote for resignation or amendments to the national security law.

Military:

  • The Russian military command makes efforts to capture Bakhmut; fighting continues on the approaches to Ivanivske and Stupochky; the enemy has changed the tactics of waves to a continuous assault, which sometimes lasts for 10 hours.
  • Attacks by small groups in the Maryinka and Vuhledar areas are of a local nature.
  • Airborne units of the Russian Armed Forces were put into battle in the areas of Soledar and Bakhmut.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The AFU continued control over Bakhmut depends on their stability to maintain positions along the Yahidne – Berkhivka – Zaliznyanske – Vasyukivka and Ivanivske – Stupochki lines along the T0504 highway;
  • The AFU will be forced to retreat from Bakhmut in the event of the enemy’s breakthrough to the Berkhiv Reservoir or their cutting of the T0504 highway and the start of an assault on Chasiv Yar;
  • The AFU’s withdrawal from Bakhmut will allow the enemy to reach the Slovyansk- Kramatorsk agglomeration, that is, the most powerful UAF’s defense hub in the East – Druzhkivka – Kostiantynivka – Kramatorsk – Slovyansk.

Sea

  • In the Mykolaiv direction, servicemen of the 61st Marine Brigade, Northern Fleet of the Russian Navy, stationed on the Kinburn spit in the area of the village of Heroyske, have received a command to prepare vehicles (APCs) for crossing the Dnipro River;
  • Russian subversive and reconnaissance groups are observed in the area of the islands and the mouth of the Dnipro River.

International:

  • PMC “Wagner” HRs are on the second prison tour to recruit more convicted criminals to fight in Ukraine, though with less extravaganza and fewer results.
  • While Ukraine’s Parliament designated the Wagner as an international criminal organization, the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office demands recognition of the Ukrainian “Freedom of Russia Legion” as a terrorist organization.
  • Russia experienced a significant budget deficit in January, which it had to cover by selling gold from the Sovereign Wealth Fund.
Humanitarian aspect:

Russian attacks

According to the information made public by Oblast Military Administrations (OMA) at 9 a.m. on February 6, 9 oblasts came under Russian fire over the preceding day.

  • At least 7 communities were shelled in Donetsk Oblast, 1 civilian died and 1 was wounded. Avdiivka was heavily shelled on the morning of February 6.
  • In Luhansk Oblast, the main efforts of the Russian forces are focused on offensive actions in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions. The situation in the region remains difficult.
  • Chernihiv Oblast was shelled once. Novgorod-Siversky district was hit from the AGS (25 explosions). No victims and destruction.
  • 3 territorial communities were shelled in Sumy Oblast. No damage or victims were reported.
  • In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, 10 reports were received about the destruction of private houses (apartments) and infrastructure objects due to shelling.
  • Nikopol, Synelnykove, and Velykomykhalivska communities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast were shelled during the day and at night. Power lines were damaged. No victims were reported.
  • In addition to the morning missile attack on downtown Kharkiv that injured 5 people and severely damaged a university and a residential building, Kupyansk and Slobozhansk directions were shelled. During the day, 8 apartment buildings, 1 infrastructure object, 1 office space and 3 cars were damaged due to Russian artillery, mortar and rocket attacks.Ochakiv community was shelled in Mykolayiv Oblast. No victims were reported.
  • The city of Kherson and 20 other towns and villages were shelled in Kherson Oblast. In total, 4 people were injured during the day. Forty people were evacuated from the liberated parts of Kherson Oblast, including 4 children.
Energy

Longer blackouts should be expected in Ukraine this week due to the onset of cold weather, said Serhiy Kovalenko, CEO of Yasno electricity supplier. Although power generation has increased, the increase is insufficient to cover the rising consumption. Ukrenergo said that emergency blackouts were applied in Kyiv and Odesa Oblasts.

Tribunal for the Russian war crimes

Based on the results of practical discussions with allies, three models of the special tribunal for the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine have been developed, Andriy Smirnov, deputy head of the Office of the President, said. According to him, the following models have been developed:

  1. Creation of the Special Tribunal based on Ukraine’s agreement with the United Nations with the adoption of the relevant resolution of the UN General Assembly;
  2. Creation of the Tribunal based on a multilateral open international agreement between the countries;
  • Creation of the Special Tribunal as a court that will work based on Ukrainian law and Ukrainian jurisdiction; that is, it will be part of the judicial system of Ukraine, with the involvement of an international element for its construction and operation (international judges and prosecutors, location in Europe, international support).
Occupied territories

According to Enerhodar city mayor Dmytro Orlov, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) is connected to the energy system of Ukraine, but it does not generate electricity but consumes it. The occupying Russian authorities have difficulties finding employees for the plant, and they abduct and torture Ukrainian personnel who refuse to sign contracts with the Russian authorities. The situation in Enerhodar remains critical because there is no heating in the city, and the enemy does not allow any of the power units of the nuclear plant to be activated. There is no other source for central heating. There is no hot water either. The temperature in people’s homes is 10-15 degrees Celsius. 15,000 residents remain in the city, said Dmytro Orlov.

Kherson OMA reported that a civilian car was fired at by Russian artillery on February 2 in the occupied Hola Prystan. Three people, including an 8-year-old boy, were in the car. The boy died on the spot. In total, 86 children were affected in Kherson Oblast since the beginning of hostilities due to the aggression of the Russian Federation.

There is no more than one percent of collaborators in the National Police, meaning the people who broke their oath and did not leave the occupied territories, or decided to cooperate with the enemy, acting Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko said.

Operational situation General conclusion:
  • The Russian military command makes efforts to capture Bakhmut;
  • Attacks by small groups in the Maryinka and Vuhledar areas are of a local nature.
Battleline:
  • Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Vasyukivka, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Kamianka, Severne, Pervomaiske, Vesele, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Pobyeda and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk Oblast.
  • The Russian forces concentrate their efforts on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions.
  • The Russian military advanced on Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast) from the north-eastern direction and captured Synkivka. In Donetsk Oblast, they advanced in the Torske and Yampil direction, conducted an assault on Serebryanka, and tried to attack from Verkhnyokamyanka in the direction of Siversk.
  • In the Soledar area, thanks to effective counter-battery fighting, the Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped the Russian advance, in particular, its operational reserves in this direction (units of the 20th motorized rifle division, 7th air assault division, which were partially brought into battle).
  • Detachments of the “Wagner” PMC and the 106th airborne division of the RF Airborne forces storm the positions of the 118th separate mechanized brigade on the northern outskirts of Bakhmut, trying to force the Ukrainian command to bring its reserves into the battle. Heavy fighting continues on the eastern outskirts of the city. The 98th airborne division of the RF Airborne forces attacked the southern outskirts of Bakhmut, west of Opytne, at the junction of positions between the Dudayev regiment and the 3rd brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine. This attack caught the Ukrainians by surprise, and the enemy managed to push them back about 500 meters to the southern outskirts of Bakhmut. Fighting continues on the approaches to Ivanivske and Stupochky; the enemy has changed the tactics of waves to a continuous assault, which sometimes lasts for 10 hours.

Enemy disposition: There is no relevant information about changes in enemy disposition.

Escalation indicators:
  • Airborne units of the Russian Armed Forces were put into battle in the areas of Soledar and Bakhmut.
Possible operation situation developments:
  • The continued control over Bakhmut by the Armed Forces of Ukraine depends on their stability to maintain their positions along the Yahidne – Berkhivka – Zaliznyanske – Vasyukivka and Ivanivske – Stupochki lines along the T0504 highway;
  • The Armed Forces of Ukraine will be forced to retreat from Bakhmut in the event of the enemy’s breakthrough to the Berkhiv Reservoir or their cutting of the T0504 highway and the start of an assault on Chasiv Yar;
  • The withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Bakhmut will allow the enemy to reach the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, that is, the most powerful defense hub of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the East – Druzhkivka – Kostiantynivka – Kramatorsk – Slovyansk.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

  • to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
  • to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

  • Due to difficult weather conditions, the enemy keeps only 5 auxiliary (search and rescue) ships at sea. Warships have been returned to the bases of Sevastopol and Feodosia.
  • On February 8, 2023, it will be one year since Moscow transferred landing ships, namely Korolev, Kaliningrad, Minsk, Petr Morgunov, Olenegorsky Hornyak, and Georgy Pobedonosets from the Baltic and Northern fleets of the Russian Federation to the Black Sea. Thus, the number of Russian amphibious ships on the move in the Black Sea doubled to 12. During almost a year of combat operations, the Russian military failed to land an amphibious assault ship, despite several attempts in February – March 2022. Currently, it is noted that in the Mykolaiv direction, servicemen of the 61st Marine Brigade, Northern Fleet of the Russian Navy, stationed on the Kinburn spit in the area of the village of Heroyske, have received a command to prepare vehicles (APCs) for crossing the Dnipro River.
    • In the Sea of Azov, on the approach to the Mariupol and Berdiansk seaports, 1 patrol boat is located with the purpose of blocking the Azov coast.
    • Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 12 sorties of Russian aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded. A military transport aircraft Il-76MD (registration number RA-78847), arrived from the Syrian airport of “Latakia” to the Crimean military airfield of “Belbek” delivering military equipment and ammunition.
    • In the area of the islands and the mouth of the Dnipro River, the activity of Russian subversive and reconnaissance groups is observed.
    • Counter-battery fighting across the Dnipro River continues. It is reported that the Russian 2С19 “Msta-S” ACS, which was shelling the city of Kherson, was destroyed by a high- precision M982 “Excalibur” projectile.
    • From the Crimean side, railway freight trains arrive on the territory of Kherson Oblast, unloading military equipment and ammunition at the “Kalanchak”, “Brylivka”, and “Novooleksiivka” stations.
“The Grain Initiative”
  • In January 2023, Ukraine exported 25% fewer agricultural products than in December 2022. 77 ships exported three million tons of agricultural products from the ports of Great Odesa to Africa, Asia and Europe. In December, Ukraine sent 94 vessels with 3.7 million tons of agricultural products. In addition, most countries receive Ukrainian agricultural products with huge time delays due to idling in the Bosphorus.
  • The Ministry of Infrastructure noted that every month the volume of grain exports decreased, and fewer grain ships left the ports of “Odesa”, “Pivdenny”, and “Chornomorsk”. In just six months of operation of the “grain corridor”, the world received

19.7 million tons of food instead of more than 30 million tons, which was expected under the condition of stable functioning of the corridor.

  • The Russian side created obstacles to Ukrainian agricultural products’ access to world markets. Thus, as the ministry notes, the “Joint Coordination Center” (JCC) blocks the inspections of vessels in the Bosphors and the registration of new vessels to the initiative by all available means and under invented pretexts.
  • At present, the rate of departure of ships from the ports remains critically low – 2.5 ships per day. In January, the ports operated at only 30-40% of their capacity due to the fleet shortage for loading. In the Bosphorus, three ships a day undergo inspection and receive permission to move to Ukrainian ports for food against the proposed nine. Every day the SCC plans to carry out ten daily inspections, but Russian inspectors successfully complete only half of them.
  • At the same time, the registration of vessels to participate in the initiative is also delayed. Without explaining the reasons, the Russian Federation registers 2-3 vessels per day, while more than 80 are declared. According to the Ministry, only on February 4, 120 vessels were waiting for inspection in the territorial waters of Turkey: 98 waited to enter ports for loading, 22 carrying agricultural products waited for the exit. Most of them wait for several weeks.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 06.02.23

Personnel – almost 132,160 people (+870)

Tanks – 3,231 (+11)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,415 (+10);

Artillery systems – 2,231 (+5);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 460 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 227 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,104 (+13); Aircraft – 293 (0);

Helicopters – 284 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,958 (0); Intercepted cruise missiles – 796 (+0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Ukrainian experts, journalists, and the general public doubt changing the Ministry of Defense’s leadership feasibility. Though Oleksii Reznikov accepted his responsibility as a minister for a recent corruption scandal [no evidence of his personal involvement is publicly available], he is regarded as an effective manager and communicator that has secured highly productive interaction with his Western counterparts. Mr. Reznikov might chair the Ministry of Strategic Industries instead. However, a group of MPs from the ruling party warned that they wouldn’t vote for a resignation or a change to the law that secures civilian control over the military. It was reported that the likely replacement for the current minister is Major General Kyrylo Budanov, the current Chief of Military Intelligence. “The principle of civilian control over the defense sector is fundamental and one of NATO’s standards. Wartime is not a reason for its cancellation, especially since we continue to consider joining NATO as a priority foreign policy issue. Therefore, I will not support either changing this principle, which is set in the law on national security, or appointing a military serviceman to the post of defense minister contrary to the law,” Bohdan Yaremenko, an MP, wrote.

President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted to the Verkhovna Rada draft laws on the approval of decrees on the extension of martial law and the period of general mobilization. The draft laws propose extending the martial law period in Ukraine for another 90 days starting 5:30 a.m. on February 19, as well as the period of general mobilization for 90 days.

International diplomatic aspect

Human resources “managers” of the Wagner PMC began their second round of recruiting in the same set of prisons. However, it’s not as spectacular this time as when Yevgeniy Prigozhin, a chief mercenary, flew onto the prison’s territory on his helicopter. Neither is it successful because even fewer criminals are willing to play “Russian roulette”. According to Mediazona’s conversation with prisoners who contacted their accomplices who volunteered in the war, the casualty rate reaches up to eighty percent.

While the Ukrainian Parliament designated the Wagner PMC as an international criminal organization, the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office demanded recognition of the Ukrainian “Freedom of Russia Legion” as a terrorist organization. The “Freedom of Russia Legion” is a part of the International Legion of the territorial defense of Ukraine under the command of the UAF. It was established in March 2022 by a hundred Russian citizens, including those who voluntarily decided to shift from the invasion forces to the UAF in fighting for Ukraine’s freedom. “Everyone is well aware that we do not pose a danger to ordinary Russians, and all these recognitions [as a terrorist organization] are just another Kremlin manipulation to discredit us in the eyes of Russians,” the Legion’s official comment reads.

Russia, relevant news

In January, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation sold gold from the Sovereign Wealth Fund (3.6 tons) for the first time to cover the budget deficit; before that, it was only accumulating, the Russian Finance Ministry reported.

According to preliminary data, oil and gas revenues of the Russian budget decreased by 46% in January due to a decrease in the price of Urals oil and a reduction in gas exports. RF federal budget expenditures in January rose by 59% to 3.117 trillion rubles. The RF budget deficit in January is tentatively estimated at 1.76 trillion rubles. (60% of the plan for the year), the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation reported.

Sales of new cars and commercial vehicles in Russia in January 2023 decreased by 63.1% compared to January 2022, writes Forbes Russia with reference to data from the European Business Association.

Most likely, in preparation for another disinformation campaign, the Russian Investigative Committee said that it is investigating the use of chemical weapons by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Bakhmut and Soledar.


Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020 and are involved in security studies, defence policy research and advocacy. Currently all our activity is focused on stopping the ongoing war.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email to cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are independent, non-government, non-partisan and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent