CDS Daily brief (07.02.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• 9 Oblasts came under Russian fire on February 6. Killed and wounded civilians were reported.
• The restoration of the Ukrainian medical infrastructure, damaged and destroyed by Russian attacks, is estimated at 6 billion dollars.
• The amount of electricity produced in Ukraine is still insufficient to cover the full consumption.
• In Ukraine, 25 Russian soldiers have already been convicted of war crimes, and indictments against another 92 people have been sent to courts.
• The Ukrainian parliament approved the extension of martial law and general mobilization for another three months and appointed the Minister of Internal Affairs and the head of the Security Service of Ukraine.

Military:

• The enemy is trying to create favorable conditions for a large-scale offensive in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions; the Russian Airborne Forces grouping is concentrated there.
• The enemy is trying to cut the T0504 highway.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy will increase efforts in the Ivanivske – Stupochki section and will try to start battles for Chasiv Yar;
• The Russian command will increase its efforts in the Lyman direction with the aim of further reaching Sloviansk from the northeast.

International:

• Russia suffered a budget deficit of $25 billion due to oil and gas revenue losses and increased war-related spending. The government tries to cover it by selling gold and foreign currency reserves and sipping from the National Wealth Fund. The top five Western oil companies profited $190 billion collectively in 2022.
• The German government is reported to greenlight the export of up to 178 Leopard-1 MBTs to Ukraine.
• Russia’s defense minister accuses the West of stepping into the conflict and self-assured himself that Russian forces continue “grinding all the armament and hardware, delivered to Kyiv.”
• The EU striped sanctions from Dmitry Ovsyannikov, a former Gauleiter of the illegally annexed Sevastopol, due to a ridiculous court judgment based on the argument that the criminal no longer holds the positions for which he was sanctioned.
• The Navalny Team found foreign assets of Mkrtich Okroyan, the chief designer of a defense enterprise that produces engines for Kh-22 cruise missiles, which are intensely being used to target Ukrainian cities.

Humanitarian aspect:

Medical infrastructure

The restoration of the Ukrainian medical infrastructure, damaged and destroyed by Russian attacks, is estimated at 6 billion dollars, the Ministry of Health reports. Russia had caused the greatest destruction to the medical infrastructure of five regions: Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv and Kyiv. Also, Ukraine does not have access to medical facilities in Luhansk Oblast, where the situation remains difficult, and cannot fully assess the extent of the destruction. The Ministry emphasizes that despite the daily shelling and challenges faced by the medical system, Ukraine, with the help of international partners, is already working on restoring the medical infrastructure from the consequences of the war.

Russian attacks

According to the information made public by Oblast Military Administrations (OMA) at 9 a.m. on February 7, 9 oblasts came under Russian fire over the preceding day.

• The enemy fired mortar rounds at Chernihiv Oblast at night.
• On February 6, the Russians shelled 3 communities of Sumy Oblast. 55 impacts were recorded. No casualties or damage was reported.
• In the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian troops shelled the civilian infrastructure of 19 towns and villages. 22 reports were received about the destruction of housing and infrastructure facilities.
• In the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the enemy shelled Marhanets at night, the power line and the pumping station were damaged, and 60,000 families from 9 towns and villages were left without water. After midnight, Russian troops hit one of the villages of the Marhanets community with barrel artillery and “Hrads”. Two private houses, a utility building and a power line were damaged. February 6 afternoon, the Russians shelled the Nikopol district with heavy artillery; three private homes and farm buildings were damaged, several power lines were cut, and a gas pipeline was damaged.
• Kharkiv Oblast was shelled throughout the day. In Vovchansk, Chuhuyiv district, an enemy projectile hit the city hospital; the roof was on fire. Nearby houses were also damaged. In the Kupyansk district, three private homes, farm buildings and a car were damaged by shelling.
• The enemy constantly shelled Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. In Donetsk Oblast, one civilian died, and five others were injured in one day.
• In Mykolaiv Oblast, an infrastructure object was damaged.
• In Kherson Oblast, the areas of 19 towns and villages were hit by enemy mortar and artillery fire. Detailed information on the consequences is being clarified. The situation in the Oblast remains tense. Two people were injured due to Russian aggression.

Evacuation

Another 59 people, including six children, were evacuated from the territories of the Kherson Oblast liberated from the Russians.

The police evacuated a family with two children out of Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast, which is constantly being shelled by the Russian troops. According to the Oblast Police, now only one child remained in the town. As noted, the situation in the Vuhledar is very tense. The police persuaded

the family with two children to evacuate, but the people asked for a few days to gather. “Due to the aggravation of the situation, these few days turned into weeks. The law enforcement officers monitored the situation so as not to put the family in danger, and as soon as the opportunity arose, they went after the family,” the police reported on their Facebook page.

Energy

The amount of electricity produced is still insufficient to cover the full consumption; Ukraine still has a capacity deficit, the most in the evening hours, reported NEC “Ukrenergo”. The produced electricity is distributed to ensure the operation of energy and critical infrastructure (water canals, boiler houses, hospitals), as well as to cover the needs of industry and the population,” the message says. The main reason for the deficit is damage to power plants (generating capacity) and high-voltage networks due to Russia’s attacks on the energy system of Ukraine. Also, more than 10 GW of the main installed capacities are currently inaccessible to the Ukrainian energy system and are under the control of the enemy. These are Zaporizhzhia NPP, the largest in Ukraine and Europe, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Vuhleghirska TPPs, and Kakhovka HPP.

War crimes

In Ukraine, 25 Russian soldiers have already been convicted of war crimes, indictments against another 92 people have been sent to court, and 260 Russian servicemen have been notified of suspicion, said Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin.

“Destruction of the civilian population of Ukraine is a deliberate strategy of the Russian Federation. It includes murder, torture and sexual violence committed against those who identify themselves as Ukrainian, as well as deportation of children, shelling of critical infrastructure and other war crimes,” the message reads.

Operational situation

General conclusion:

• The enemy is trying to create favorable conditions for the start of a large-scale offensive in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions;
• The enemy is trying to cut the T0504 highway.

Battleline:

• Defense Forces units repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Novoselivske, Kreminna and Dibrova in Luhansk Oblast and Verkhnyokamianske, Vesele, Zaliznyanske, Krasna Gora, Bakhmut, Ivanivske and Paraskoviivka in Donetsk Oblast.
• North of Bakhmut, the enemy is concentrating its efforts on encircling Ukrainian Joint Forces units in the area of Krasna Gora and Paraskoviivka villages, advancing in the direction of 177.5 height, 190 height and further – in the direction of 204.8 height along the E40 highway. Russian troops are trying to cut the road T0504 Kostyantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Bakhmut west of Bakhmut and the road E40 Bakhmut – Sloviansk north of the city.
• The enemy advanced insignificantly in Krasna Hora, Rozdolivka – Mykolaivka areas and in the urban areas in the northeast of Bakhmut, near Opytne, Ozeryanivka, and Klishchiivka.

Units of the “Wagner” PMC have advanced up to 1 km in the shoulder of the T0504 highway and are attacking in the direction of Stupochki and Ivanivske in order to cut it.

• The enemy captured Synkivka, broke through the Ukrainian defenses in Dvorichne and took positions on its western edge. Units of the 76th Air assault division of the Russian Airborne Forces overcame the resistance of the Defense Forces in the Serebryansk Forestry area south of Dibrova. Units of the 3rd motorized rifle division pushed the Defense Forces units back from their position along the Makiyivka-Ploschanka-Nevske line. Enemy engineering and demining units of the 144th motorized rifle division started demining in the Yampolivka area.
• In the area west of Maryinka, the enemy has little success. They attacked in the area of Kamianka and Pivnichne, along the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk near Pervomaiske, Vesele, Krasnohorivka, Nevelske, in the area of Pobyeda and Novomykhailivka.
• The defense forces hold Bilohorivka and firmly defend their positions in Bakhmut. The command of the Ukrainian Joint Forces transfers reserves to the Vuhledar district. The supply of the Joint Forces garrison in Bakhmut continues without interruption.

Enemy disposition:

• The deployment of units of the 2nd motorized rifle division, 26th tank regiment of the 47th tank division of the 1st tank army in the Kupyansk direction is completed.
• Two battalions from the 331st and 217th parachute airborne regiments of the 98th airborne division were moved to the Kreminna area. One of them has already been deployed in the area of the Dibrova village area.
• The enemy grouping in the Lyman direction has 8,500-8,700 servicemen and consists of the 104th, 234th and 237th air assault regiments of the 76 Air assault division, 217th and 331st parachute airborne regiments of the 98 airborne division; the 31st separate airborne assault brigade is in reserve (concentrated in Luhansk).
• The formation of the 85th and 88th separate motorized rifle brigades under the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army continues. For this, the 202nd rifle regiment and 290th, 293rd, 259th, 294th, 302nd, 314th, and 315th rifle battalions of the mobilization reserve are being reorganized. Each brigade’s expected personnel are up to 2,500 people; the permanent dislocation points are Novoaidar and Starobilsk.

Escalation indicators:

• The Russian Airborne Forces grouping is concentrated in the Lyman and Bakhmut directions.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy will increase efforts in the Ivanivske – Stupochki section and will try to start battles for Chasiv Yar;
• The Russian command will increase its efforts in the Lyman direction with the aim of further reaching Sloviansk from the northeast.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

• Due to worsening weather conditions (5-7 points storm at sea), the enemy reduced the number of ships at sea to two. The warships are at bases in Sevastopol and Feodosia.
• There are no ships in the waters of the Sea of Azov.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 8 sorties of enemy aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.
• From the Crimea railway freight trains arrive on the territory of the Kherson Oblast, unloading military equipment and ammunition at the “Kalanchak”, “Brylivka”, and “Novooleksiyivka” stations.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.02.23

Personnel – almost 133,190 people (+1030)

Tanks – 3,245 (+14)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,443 (+28);

Artillery systems – 2,232 (+1);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 461 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 227 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,107 (+3); Aircraft – 294 (0);

Helicopters – 284 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,958 (0); Intercepted cruise missiles – 796 (+0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The Verkhovna Rada approved the decrees of President Volodymyr Zelensky on the extension of martial law and general mobilization for another three months until May 18.

The Verkhovna Rada appointed Ihor Klymenko as the Minister of Internal Affairs. Klymenko served as the acting head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. His predecessor, Denys Monastyrsky, died in a plane crash in Brovary on January 18.

The Verkhovna Rada appointed Vasyl Malyuk as the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). From July 18, 2022, Malyuk served as the acting head of the SBU; his predecessor, Ivan Bakanov, was dismissed by the parliament on July 19.

The wife of treason suspect Viktor Medvedchuk, Oksana Marchenko, is the ultimate beneficiary of a network of Kyiv companies and an enterprise in Yalta, which transferred millions of dollars to the accounts of the Russian Guard and the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs in occupied Crimea, the SBU reports. Marchenko was informed about the suspicion.

International diplomatic aspect

Russia suffered a budget deficit of $25 billion in January. Tax revenue from oil and gas plunged 46% in January from a year ago. At the same time, there was a two-thirds increase in spending due to the Russian war efforts in Ukraine. While Russians bought an all-time record number of gold bars in 2022 (50 tons of gold bars, which is ten times more than the year before), the government sold 3.6 tons of gold from the Russian National Wealth Fund to cover the country’s federal budget deficit for the first time by such measure. In addition to gold, the Finance Ministry sold 2.3 billion Chinese yuan. Both deals brought in $543 million. The National Wealth Fund still amounts to some $155.3 billion, which equals 7.2% of the GDP. Though there’re fewer resources to sustain the system and carry on the war, it’s unlikely Vladimir Putin would abandon his goals to defeat Ukraine.

Getting rid of the Russian energy dependence was rewarding in geopolitical and economic aspects. The top five Western oil companies reaped $190 billion collectively in 2022. Exxon Mobil Corp., the largest U.S. oil company, reported its highest-ever annual profit of $55.7 billion for 2022. Shell ($39.9 billion), Chevron ($35.5 billion), TotalEnergies, and BP ($27.7 billion) are catching up.

The German government greenlights the export of up to 178 Leopard 1 MBTs to Ukraine, according to Business Insider.

“Indeed, these kinds of steps involve NATO countries in the conflict and can lead to an unpredictable level of its escalation. The groups of Russian forces continue grinding all the armament and hardware, delivered to Kyiv, both at the routes of their delivery and at the combat positions,” Russia’s Defence minister routinely said.

Dmitry Ovsyannikov, a former gauleiter of the illegally annexed Sevastopol (2016-2019), was stripped from the sanctions by the EU due to the judgment of the General Court. The court justified its decision because Ovsyannikov no longer holds the positions for which he was sanctioned. Under such a strange logic, all Russian officials in the illegally occupied territories may enjoy impunity for their criminal activities after concluding their “official” duties.

The Navalny Team found foreign assets of Mkrtich Okroyan, the chief designer of the “Soyuz” defense enterprise that produces engines for Kh-22 cruise missiles, which are intensely being used to target Ukrainian cities. Okroyan seats on the board of directors of the Balashikha casting and mechanical plant, which produces goods for the Russian military and is under Western sanctions. His 28-year-old daughter owns a $7 million mansion in Surrey, UK. Both cases show

the need for more sanctions enforcement to rule out their circumvention and a deeper search of those whose names are still missing from the black lists.

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