CDS Daily brief (08.02.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• The Secretary General of the European Institute of Ombudsman, Joseph Siegele, took two Ukrainian children from Austria to Russia. Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets stated that Ukraine is urgently withdrawing from the European Ombudsman Institute, as its leadership ignored Ukraine’s request for an investigation on this matter. Lubinets also appealed to representatives of other countries to respond to the deportation of children.
• 9 Oblasts came under Russian fire on February 7. Killed and wounded civilians were reported.
• In Luhansk Oblast, Russian occupation authorities threaten businessmen with a fine of 300,000 rubles for circulating the hryvnia.

Military:

• The enemy, trying to take full control of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, continues its primary efforts to conduct an offensive in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions;
• The enemy does not have enough infantry units to quickly advance deep into the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
• The enemy does not have the force and resources to simultaneously conduct more than two offensive operations;
• Enemy’s Airborne Forces and PMC are trying to advance north of Krasna Hora and cover Bakhmut from the north;
• Using the capture of Vodyane and Opytne, the enemy is trying to capture Avdiivka from the south;
• The enemy’s advance in the direction of Siversk is an attempt to create conditions for developing an offensive on Lyman.
• Ukrainian troops maintain control over Ivanovske, a critical settlement for controlling the T0504 highway.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy command will make efforts to cover Bakhmut from the north and cut the supply routes of Sloviansk – Bakhmut and Kostyantynivka – Bakhmut;
• The enemy will try to develop an offensive on Avdiivka from the south.
• Sea: There is information on preparing the enemy marine units located on the Kinburn Peninsula for a possible amphibious landing using BTR-82 amphibious armored personnel carriers.

International:

• Volodymyr Zelensky thanked Britain for its great support and envisaged Ukraine’s victory as the “most important victory of our lifetime.” Ukraine’s President appealed to the West to provide Ukraine with modern fighter jets. The UK responded by launching a pilots’ training program and considering providing its own fighter jets or facilitating a transfer from other partner countries.

• The British PM announced a conference, organized with the Dutch, on the international assistance to the ICC that, hopefully, will bring the “first indictments very shortly.”
• Though the Joint Investigation Team’s report shows Vladimir Putin’s personal involvement in a decision to send the BUK air defense system to the Russia-occupied territory of Donbas that was used to murder 298 passengers of the MH17, making a criminal pay is a complicated case.
• Germany is calling a “tank alliance” meeting next week and believes the first battalion of Leopard MBTs may be delivered to Ukraine in the first 3-4 months of this year. The UK will provide Challenger 2 MBTs in March.
• The Swedish Parliament approved $406 million in assistance for Ukraine.
• The POTUS addressed the nation and promised continuous support for Ukraine for “as long as it takes.” Joe Biden highlighted American leadership in facing the Russian threat.
• Volodymyr Zelensky, Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz will meet in Paris this week.
• A UAV production plant in Latvia was ablaze. The Russian involvement shouldn’t be ruled out.

Humanitarian aspect:

Children

• As of the morning of February 8, 461 Ukrainian children died, and more than 920 were injured of various degrees of severity as a result of the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation, reported the Office of the Prosecutor General. The data are not final, as work continues in places of hostilities, in temporarily captured and liberated territories.
• According to the state children’s search portal Children of War, as of February 8, 347 children are considered missing, 16,168 are considered deported; meanwhile 9,578 children were found, and 173 children were returned.
• Russian troops damaged 3,126 educational institutions in Ukraine by bombing and shelling, 337 of them were completely destroyed.
• Dmytro Lubinets, the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, announced that he is leaving the European Ombudsman Institute due to the illegal deportation of two Ukrainian children from Austria to the Russian Federation as the institutions’ leadership ignored Ukraine’s request for an investigation on this matter. According to media reports, this was done by Dr. Josef Siegele, General Secretary of the EOI, member of the EOI board and deputy ombudsman of Tyrol. “This is a violation of Articles 49 and 50 of the Geneva Convention for the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War, which prohibits the forced resettlement or deportation of persons from the occupied territory and obligates the occupying power to take all necessary measures to facilitate the procedure for establishing the identity of children and registering their family ties,” Lubinets emphasized. According to him, the specified facts, namely, the forcible transfer of children from one group to another, is one of the signs of genocide under Article II of the UN Convention of December 9, 1948 “On the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.” Lubinets also appealed to representatives of other countries to respond to the deportation of children.

Russian attacks

According to the information made public by Oblast Military Administrations (OMA) at 9 a.m. on February 8, nine oblasts came under Russian fire over the preceding day.

Consequences of the attacks:

• The enemy constantly shelled the border Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. A 77-year-old woman died in Sumy Oblast due to February 7 shelling; a projectile hit a private residential building. On February 8, the Russians shelled Semenivka in Chernihiv Oblast from aircraft. As a result of the attack on the enterprise, two employees died. Two more injured civilians were pulled out from under the rubble by rescuers.
• Russians shelled the civilian infrastructure of 13 towns and villages in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast on February 7. There is the destruction of housing and infrastructure facilities.
• On the   night of February 8,   the Russian army again shelled the Nikopol   district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; the Chervonohryhorivka community was shelled with heavy artillery.
• On the night of February 8, the enemy struck Kharkiv with S-300 missiles. According to preliminary information, 4 rockets hit the territory of the industrial facility, causing a fire. Another impact was on the grounds of Kharkiv Central Park. At least 27 towns and villages of Kharkiv Oblast were under enemy fire during the past 24 hours. In Vovchansk, a 16- year-old girl was wounded in the evening due to artillery fire, and a 74-year-old woman died. The building of the city hospital was damaged. One of the fragments hit an ambulance carrying a patient, fortunately not resulting in injuries. As a result of the shelling of Kharkiv Oblast on February 8, five people were injured, among them a 10-year- old child.
• The enemy constantly shelled Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. In Donetsk Oblast, the enemy fired at Druzhkivka S-300 at night. A high-rise building was damaged. Information about the victims is being clarified. In one day, at least two civilians were wounded. On February 8, Russian occupiers shelled New York village in Donetsk Oblast, hitting a high- rise apartment building.
• In Kherson Oblast, 15 towns and villages were affected by enemy fire on February 7, according to the information of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine; two people were injured due to Russian aggression. On February 8, Russians once again shelled the center of Kherson, an elderly citizen was killed by an enemy artillery strike when he was caught by fire on the street, Kherson OMA reported. They also shelled the children’s rehabilitation center for the fourth time. Due to constant Russian shelling, the institution, which not so long ago taught and raised children with special educational needs, is damaged by Russian shells. Around noon, the Russian army opened fire on a residential quarter in the center of the city; two people, including a minor, were injured.

Evacuation

• Another 69 people, including 12 children, were evacuated by motor vehicles from the territories of the Kherson region liberated from the Russians.

Occupied territories

In Luhansk Oblast, Russian occupation authorities threaten businessmen with a fine of 300,000 rubles for circulating the hryvnia [Ukrainian currency], reported Ukrinform citing the Luhansk OMA. “Since the beginning of January, raids by the [Russian] occupiers on shops have not stopped they are looking for those who still accept the hryvnia. It has already been reported about the detention of money changers who circulated it. In addition, during searches, bank terminals are seized,” the report says. According to OMA, the Russians “want to make the residents of the temporarily occupied regions dependent on payments in rubles. They are hunting for the hryvnia and, at the same time, strengthening [Russian] passporting [policy]. Because the passport itself is a necessary condition for receiving all social benefits.”

Ukraine’s cultural heritage

About 1,500 objects of cultural heritage and cultural infrastructure were damaged or destroyed due to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, stated the Minister of Culture and Information Policy, Oleksandr Tkachenko, during the international forum on cultural heritage safety “War in Ukraine: Battle for Culture”. “The numbers, unfortunately, are growing because the front line is changing; the Russians are resorting to missile attacks and artillery shelling every day, which completely destroy Ukrainian cities and villages. And we also know that many cultural heritage objects were specifically targeted,” said Tkachenko. According to him, such targeted attacks, as well as the banning, confiscation and burning of Ukrainian books, illegal removal of cultural values, archival documents, deprivation of Ukrainians’ access to cultural heritage, and Russification of occupied territories are signs of cultural genocide. He emphasized that such large-scale looting of cultural values had not happened since the Second World War.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The enemy, trying to take full control of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, continues to focus on conducting offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions in the Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Opytne, Maryinka and Vuhledar;
• The enemy does not have enough infantry units to quickly advance deep into the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
• Units of the enemy’s Airborne Forces and PMC are trying to advance north of Krasna Hora and cover Bakhmut from the north;
• Using the capture of Vodyane and Opytne, the enemy is trying to capture Avdiivka from the south;
• The enemy’s advance in the direction of Siversk is an attempt to create conditions for developing an offensive on Lyman.

Battleline:

• The Defense Forces units repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Novoselivske, Chervonopopivka, Shipylivka and Bilohorivka of Luhansk Oblast and Verkhnyokamianske, Fedirivka, Orihiv-Vasylivka, Dubove-Vasylivka, Spirne, Vyimka, Bakhmut, Krasna Gora, Paraskoviivka, Ivanovske, Chasiv Yar, Kamianka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka, Maryinka and Bohoyavlenka of Donetsk Oblast.

• Ukrainian Defense forces continue to inflict damage on enemy equipment and personnel in Kuzemivka. Ukrainian troops maintain control over Ivanovske, a critical settlement for controlling the T0504 highway.
• The enemy attacked from Ploschanka to Makiyivka and in the area of Kreminna. Russian troops are advancing towards Siversk from the northeast in the Bilohorivka area, from the east in the Zolotarivka area, and from the southeast in the Spirne area.
• The enemy broke through the defense of the Ukrainian Forces in the Blahodatne area. The Russians’ tactical advance near Paraskoviivka and Krasna Hora is noted, where the enemy has a significant advantage in manpower. Still, with active defense, the Ukrainian Joint Forces hold their positions and inflicted significant losses on the enemy.
• The enemy has partial success north of Opytne and has completely occupied Vodyane.
• In the Maryinka area, the enemy carries out weak attacks, easily repulsed by the Joint Forces units. The situation is similar in Vuhledar, where units of the Ukrainian 72nd separate mechanized brigade conducted a successful counterattack, inflicting significant losses on the enemy, primarily in combat equipment (the enemy’s losses are up to 30% of combat vehicles).

Enemy disposition:

• At a distance of 50-80 km from the border with Ukraine, the enemy is deploying rear areas to restore combat capability, one for each division/brigade concentrated in the Luhansk region.

Escalation indicators: None

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy does not have the force and resources to simultaneously conduct more than two offensive operations;
• The enemy command will make efforts to cover Bakhmut from the north and cut the supply routes of Sloviansk – Bakhmut and Kostyantynivka – Bakhmut;
• The enemy will try to develop an offensive on Avdiivka from the south.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

• Due to worsening weather conditions (sea storm 5-7 points), the enemy reduced the number of ships at sea to two. Battleships carrying Kalibr missiles are at the Sevastopol and Feodosia bases, ready to go to sea and fire missiles in 2-4 hours.
• There are no ships in the waters of the Sea of Azov.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 9 sorties of enemy aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.
• The enemy continues constant shelling with mortars, rocket and barrel artillery populated areas along the right bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson direction. On February 7, Kherson, Zolota Balka, Kachkarivka, Mylove and Antonivka were under enemy fire.
• Velykiy Potyomkinsky and Bilohrudyi islands remain in the so-called “gray zone”. From their territory, the Russian troops conduct artillery and mortar attacks on Kherson, keeping the city center, Korabel, Naftogavan, Richport, KhBK, and Tavriysk neighborhoods in the zone of enemy fire. There are also periodic attempts by enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups to land on the right-bank part of Kherson Oblast.
• Information continues to arrive about the possible preparation of the enemy marine units located on the Kinburn Peninsula for a possible amphibious landing using BTR-82 amphibious armored personnel carriers.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 08.02.23

Personnel – almost 134,100 people (+910)

Tanks – 3,253 (+8)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,458 (+15);

Artillery systems – 2,236 (+4);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 461 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 228 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,112 (+5); Aircraft – 295 (+1);

Helicopters – 285 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,961 (+3); Intercepted cruise missiles – 796 (+0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

International diplomatic aspect

“London has stood with Kyiv since day one,” Volodymyr Zelensky told the British Parliament. “Since the first seconds and minutes of the full-scale war. Great Britain, you extended your helping hand when the world had not yet come to understand how to react.” “We know Russia will lose,” he said. “And we really know that victory will change the world. And this will be a change that the world has long needed. The United Kingdom is marching with us toward, I think, the most important victory of our lifetime.” Ukraine’s victory will create a new geostrategic reality in Europe and will help to shape it in the Indo-Pacific region as well.

“We have freedom; give us wings to protect it,” Volodymyr Zelensky said as he passed a Ukrainian fighter pilot helmet to the Speaker of the House of Commons. “As part of today’s talks, the Prime Minister will offer to bolster the UK’s training offer for Ukrainian troops, including expanding it to fighter jet pilots to ensure Ukraine can defend its skies well into the future,” the Downing 10 announced. “The training will ensure pilots are able to fly sophisticated NATO-standard fighter jets in the future.”

Moreover, the PM’s official spokesman hinted that the UK is considering options for providing Ukraine with modern Western fighter jets. “I think you can see from the steps that we are taking that we are willing to put Ukraine in the position where, once we have reached the goals of training pilots, they are able to fly these types of jets,” the PM’s official spokesman said. “What we have not made a decision on is whether we send UK fighter jets. Obviously, there is an ongoing discussion among other countries about their own fighter jets, some of which are more akin to what Ukrainian pilots are used to.”

“We’ve all been worried about you and thinking about your country for so long, I can’t tell you,” King Charles said. The Ukrainian President expressed the gratitude of the Ukrainian people to the United Kingdom for its invaluable support.

“We’re shortly to be hosting a conference together with the Dutch,” British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said. “And also, one of the things I discussed with President Zelensky this morning is our support for the work of the ICC where, thanks to the efforts of UK members, I’m hopeful we will see the first indictments very shortly.”

“There are strong indications that the Russian president decided on supplying the Buk TELAR [air defense system] to the DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic) separatists,” a statement of the [MH17] Joint Investigation Team reads. Though it’s legally and physically challenging to prosecute Vladimir Putin because of the immunity he enjoys as a head of state and the nuclear weapon factor, it’s important not to give up on the idea of bringing to justice a criminal responsible for the murder of 298 people onboard of the Malaysian Airlines flight MH17. And it’s just an episode of a series of crimes committed by the Russian dictator.

Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands announced they plan to provide Ukraine with about a hundred refurbished Leopard 1 MBTs. The German Defence Minister announced a meeting of the “tank alliance” next week to coordinate their efforts. “I think we could deliver one battalion [of Leopard MBTs] in the first four months of this year, three months maybe — and then we have to proceed as fast as possible, of course,” Boris Pistorius said. The UK PM announced the delivery of Challenger 2 MBTs in March.

The Swedish Parliament approved the government’s amendment to the budget, which includes

$406 million in assistance for Ukraine.

“We are grateful for [America’s] leadership in helping [Ukraine], for the solidarity of the entire [American] people. Our values are the same, our common goal is victory. [Ukraine] freely chooses

its future. It is and will be so!” President Zelensky reacted to the State of the Union. Though the SOTU was overwhelmingly dedicated to domestic issues and is regarded as a test for a second term bid, Joe Biden used Ukraine as an example of how, despite all odds, both parties may unite on crucial matters. “But time and again, Democrats and Republicans came together. Came together to defend a stronger and safer Europe,” he said at the beginning of his address. The POTUS praised the Ukrainian people by speaking to the Ukrainian ambassador there. “She represents not just her nation, but the courage of her people,” Joe Biden said. He promised continuous support for Ukraine for “as long as it takes.” Joe Biden highlighted the importance of America’s leading role, “We led. We united NATO. We built a global coalition. We stood against Putin’s aggression. We stood with the Ukrainian people.”

“Ukraine belongs to Europe; its future lies in the European Union. And this promise holds true,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in his address to the Bundestag. He added that “Putin will not achieve his goals — not on the battlefield and not through a dictated peace. This is clear after one year of this war.” Volodymyr Zelensky, Emmanuel Macron, and Olaf Scholz will meet in Paris in a show of unity, coordination, and support of Ukraine’s self-defense and on its way to EU membership.

The Edge Autonomy unmanned aerial vehicle production plant was ablaze. A US-owned factory near Riga airport produces long-range UAVs for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions. It supplies the products to 70 countries, including Ukraine. The incident requires a detailed investigation of whether there was a Russian diversion, as it happened four times to Emilian Gebrev’s warehouses and ammunition production facilities in Bulgaria. The fire in Latvia may be tit for tat after a missile and UAV production site in Iran was targeted on 29 January.

Russia, relevant news

In 2022, more than 4,300 people renounced Russian citizenship, which is a 3-year high, according to Russia’s Foreign Ministry. The number of those who received Russian citizenship has decreased by 6.4% and amounted to just over 691 thousand people, RBC reported.

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