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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• The Russian Federation attacked nine regions of Ukraine during the day on February 8. At least 8 civilians were killed and 18 injured;
• The “I want to live” project launched by the Ukrainian government for the Russian soldiers who would like to lay down their arms received over 7,600 calls;
• Russian invaders started to open so-called cadet corps in the occupied territories, and they force parents to send their children there;
• The government is refining the de-occupation and reintegration strategy for Crimea.

Military:

• Trying to gain full control of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the Russian forces concentrate their main efforts on offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions in the areas of Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Opytne, Maryinka and Vuhledar;
• The Russian military is trying to regain the operational initiative in Luhansk Oblast;
• The Russian military tries to surround Bakhmut, cutting off Ukrainian troops from the E40 highway;
• The Russian military continues building defense line, builds up a network of trenches and field fortifications near Tarasivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, to strengthen positions along the T0401 highway between Polohy and Tokmak, which indicates the preparation of a defensive line to protect the land corridor between Donbas and Crimea.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian military will develop an offensive in the direction of Kupyansk and Lyman, prepare conditions to enter the approaches to Sloviansk from the north;
• The enemy will continue its efforts to encircle Bakhmut while advancing with its right flank from Soledar in the direction of Siversk;
• Local attacks in the areas of Avdiyivka, Maryinka and Vuhledar will continue. Their goal is to force the command of the Ukrainian Joint Forces to scatter reserves, prevent the transfer of troops to strengthen the defense in the east of Kharkiv Oblast and the west of Luhansk.

International:

• President Zelensky received a warm welcome from the leaders of the EU and member states. In a demonstration of unity, they pledged long-term support and talked about Ukraine’s path toward EU membership.
• President Zelensky hinted about some progress in securing fighter jets for Ukraine, but the European leaders didn’t go public on that issue.
• The EU is reading the new sanctions package, targeting physical persons and some €10 billion in Russian exports of goods.

• The President of the European Commission announced launching the center in The Hague as a step towards setting up a tribunal to “hold the perpetrator accountable, including for the crime of aggression.”
• Lithuania will provide anti-aircraft guns, while it has been reported that Iran is modifying the attack drones so that the explosive warheads can inflict maximum damage.
• SpaceX is reported to limit functions of Starlink service, restricting its use for UAV operations by the UAF.

Humanitarian aspect:

The “I want to live” project launched by the Ukrainian government, which informs the Russian military about the possibility of laying down their arms and saving their lives, has already received more than 7,600 calls, said Deputy Permanent Representative of Ukraine to International Organizations in Vienna Nataliya Kostenko during a meeting of the OSCE Security Cooperation Forum.

Russian attacks

The army of the Russian Federation carried out attacks on nine regions of Ukraine during the day on February 8. At least 8 civilians were killed and 18 injured.

• In Chernihiv Oblast, an industrial enterprise in the Semenivka community was hit by a missile strike. Two employees died, and two were injured.
• 87 explosions were recorded in Sumy Oblast throughout the day. Also, a UAV dropped munitions on the Bilopillia community. No victims were reported.
• In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the civilian infrastructure of at least 19 towns and villages came under Russian fire. Twelve reports of damaged residential properties and civilian infrastructure objects were filed.
• The city of Nikopol was shelled in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A 37-year-old man was killed. 16 private houses, power lines and gas pipelines were damaged.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, at least 23 populated areas came under Russian fire during the day. 5 people, including a 10-year-old boy, were injured due to the shelling of the populated areas of the Chuhuyiv district. Around 22:00, an enemy projectile hit the building of the State Emergency Service unit in Vovchansk. The building was damaged. No victims were reported.
• The situation in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts is difficult. Heavy fighting is underway. In Sievierodonetsk, Luhansk Oblast, patients are sent home from the hospital because the room is prepared to operate on the Russian soldiers. Two people died, and seven were injured in Donetsk Oblast.
• In Mykolaiv Oblast, a village in the Ochakiv community came under Russian artillery shelling during the day, and residential buildings were damaged. There are no victims or injured.
• Enemy artillery shelling is daily in Kherson Oblast. An elderly man who was out in the street at the time of the shelling was killed in the city of Kherson; two others were lightly injured. In total, three people were killed, and four were injured in Kherson Oblast during the day.

Energy

Due to the system’s electricity shortage, scheduled blackouts continue in all regions, except Kharkiv, Kherson, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, where actual consumption measurements are ongoing throughout Thursday, the press service of Ukrenergo reported.

The energy situation in the city of Odesa and Odesa district has improved after generators were connected to critical infrastructure objects, the head of Odesa OMA Maksym Marchenko said. He said, however, that the situation still remains problematic and a new blackout schedule is expected by the end of the day on February 9.

Regaining appropriated cultural heritage

The Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York recognized the artist Arkhip Kuindzhi as a Ukrainian artist. As early as December 2022, the museum recognized him as a Russian artist. Kuindzhi was born in Mariupol when it was a part of the Russian empire; many of his paintings portrayed landscapes on the banks of the Dnipro River. A Russian bomb destroyed his museum in Mariupol in March 2022.

Occupied territories

Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Malyar reported that the Russian invaders started to open the so-called cadet corps in the occupied territories, forcing parents to send their children there. According to her, a military educational institution of this kind has already opened this year in Starobilsk in Luhansk Oblast. Others are also planned to be opened in the Skadovsk, Kalanchak, Novotroitsk and Henichesk districts of Kherson Oblast.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• Trying to gain full control of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the Russian forces concentrate their main efforts on offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions in the areas of Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Opytne, Maryinka and Vuhledar;
• The Russian military is trying to regain the operational initiative in Luhansk Oblast;
• Russian troops advance to the northeast from Bakhmut in the direction of Siversk in order to support the main Russian attack from Kreminna in the western direction;
• The Russian military tries to surround Bakhmut, cutting off Ukrainian troops from the E40 highway;
• The Russian military continues building a defense line, building up a network of trenches and field fortifications near Tarasivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, to strengthen positions along the T0401 highway between Polohy and Tokmak, which indicates the preparation of a defensive line to protect the land corridor between Donbas and Crimea.

Battleline:

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Stelmakhivka, Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast; Vyimka, Fedirivka, Bakhmut, Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Novokalynove, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Vesele, Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka, Maryinka, Bohoyavlenka and Prechystivka in Donetsk Oblast and Novoandriivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Units of the 3rd, 144th motorized rifle division of the 20th army of the Western Military District, the 90th tank division of the Central Military District, and the 76th air assault division of the airborne troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched an offensive operation and attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces along the Svatove-Kreminna frontier, advanced near the village of Dvorichne. The 59th tank regiment of the 144th motorized rifle division attacked in the direction of Torske. The 2nd motorized rifle division and the 31st separate air assault brigade are kept in reserve. Units of the Chechen “Akhmat” detachment and the 2nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd army corps captured Ukrainian positions near Berestove.
• Units of the Ukrainian Joint Forces lost their positions in the Krasna Hora area and suffered losses; the village was completely destroyed. The enemy reached the M03 highway and the approaches to Zaliznyanske village.
• Units of the 30th separate mechanized brigade and 219th territorial defense brigade supported by the 40th and 45th separate artillery brigades counterattacked and cut off the Russian units, restoring the front line. Russian forces are located 2.5 km from the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway, advancing in the direction of Orihovo-Vasylivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka.
• Ukrainian Defense forces repelled Russian assaults near Bohoyavlenka.

Enemy disposition:

• No changes noted.

Escalation indicators:

• More than 40 towns and villages in the regions bordering the Russian Federation were shelled;
• The pace of hostilities in the Svatove-Kreminna area increased;
• Three divisions of the Russian Armed Forces were put into operation simultaneously.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian military will develop an offensive in the direction of Kupyansk and Lyman, prepare conditions to enter the approaches to Sloviansk from the north;
• The enemy will continue its efforts to encircle Bakhmut while advancing with its right flank from Soledar in the direction of Siversk;
• Local attacks in the areas of Avdiyivka, Maryinka and Vuhledar will continue. Their goal is to force the command of the Ukrainian Joint Forces to scatter reserves and prevent the transfer of troops to strengthen the defense in the east of Kharkiv Oblast and the west of Luhansk.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

• Due to worsening weather conditions (5-7 points storm at sea), the Russian Fleet reduced the number of ships at sea to two. Battleships carrying Kalibr missiles are at their bases: a frigate and a corvette are in Sevastopol, and two corvettes are in Feodosia. Their approximate readiness for going to sea and firing rockets is 2-4 hours.
  • There are no ships in the waters of the Sea of Azov.
  • Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 10 sorties of Russian aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.
  • The airport in Simferopol is once again closed to Russian civilian aviation until February 13, 2023. The “suspension” of the airport’s operation is extended every week from February 24, 2022, so that the military aircraft of the Russian Federation can fly without obstacles. In occupied Crimea, the “yellow level” of the terrorist threat continues. At Putin’s orders, the occupation administrations of Armyansk, Dzhankoy, Krasnoperekopsk and Kerch introduced additional anti-terrorist measures indefinitely until they are canceled.
  • The head of the occupation administration of Crimea, Aksyonov, said that they plan to complete the installation of fortifications on the territory of the occupied peninsula by April 15.
  • As of February 8, 2023, at least 290 Russian soldiers have been buried in the occupied Crimea. 184 of them were probably citizens of Ukraine.
  • In the area of the islands and the mouth of the Dnieper, the activity of subversive and reconnaissance groups of Russians is observed.
  • Counter-battery fighting across the Dnipro River continues.
  • In the Black Sea, the dry cargo TQ Ordu ran aground on its way from Eregli to Odesa to get wheat. The event occurred at 23:30 on February 8, 2023, due to stormy weather in the Black Sea, near the city of Şile, in the province of Istanbul.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 09.02.23

Personnel – almost 135,010 people (+910)

Tanks – 3,255 (+2)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,468 (+10);

Artillery systems – 2,244 (+8);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 463 (+2); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 232 (+4);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,121 (+9); Aircraft – 295 (0);

Helicopters – 285 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,967 (+6); Intercepted cruise missiles – 796 (+0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Inflation in the consumer market of Ukraine in January 2023 compared to December 2022 was 0.8%; compared to January last year, prices increased by 26.0%, the State Statistic Buro reports.

According to Iryna Vereshchuk, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories, the priority steps for the reintegration of Crimea include the punishment of collaborators, solving the issue with the colonizers (i.e. the Russian citizens who moved to the occupied territory), the issue of personnel reserves (the people to be involved in the administration of the liberated territory), and the return of property to the Ukrainian citizens. She stressed that not all Ukrainians who lived in the occupation are collaborators and that clear distinction should be made between those who will be amnestied, those who will be lustrated and those who will be held criminally liable.

International diplomatic aspect

“Welcome home, welcome to the EU, President Zelensky!” President of the European Council twitted. Charles Michel went on by saying that “It’s time to be firm, clear, and give Ukraine our utmost support. First on the military front: munitions, artillery, vehicles, defense systems.” So far, the EU has provided €67 billion in various forms of assistance to Ukraine.

“A Ukraine that is winning is going to be a member of the European Union,” Zelensky said in his emotional speech addressed to the European leaders and parliamentarians. He was referring to the European values Ukraine is fighting for and asking for further support required for the victory. His message was heard. “Today, you see that we are one family; we have one vision. And family members help each other. You can count on us. We will continue to provide our full support. Now, to sustain your people through this atrocious war. And for the future,” the President of the European Commission said in her remarks. “Ukraine fights for peace and carries the values of our European Union: Ukraine will never be alone,” Emmanuel Macron twitted. “We [Germany and France] stand closely by Ukraine’s side – for as long as necessary. SlavaUkraini,” twitted Olaf Scholz.

“Europe will be with us until our victory. I’ve heard it from a number of European leaders… about the readiness to give us the necessary weapons and support, including aircraft,” Volodymyr Zelensky said after meeting the leaders of the EU countries. “This is a question for those who have fighter jets. Estonia does not have fighter jets, otherwise, we would give everything we have,” Estonian PM Kaja Kallas said. However, there were no public announcements about these decisions. Though there’re reservations on the issues in some European capitals, it seems that

this time partner nations desire to have a closed-door conversation and not to turn a discussion into another “tank saga,” publicly showing rifts and disagreements between the allies.

The EU is about to reveal the 10th package of sanctions, targeting political and military leadership, propagandists, and more than €10 billion in Russian exports of goods.

“We are setting up the center in The Hague. And the next step is to set up a tribunal. Here, the discussions are ongoing about the exact structure. We have the political will to hold the perpetrator accountable, including for the crime of aggression,” Ursula von der Leyen stated.

Lithuania will provide Ukraine with thirty-six L-70 anti-aircraft guns with ammunition to cope with the threats, including Iranian-made drones. At the same time, Iran appears to be modifying the attack drones it’s providing to Russia so that the explosive warheads can inflict maximum damage on infrastructure targets inside Ukraine, according to a new investigative report obtained exclusively by CNN.

SpaceX is asked to choose the sides, either Ukraine and the “right to freedom” or Russia and “its ‘right’ to kill and seize territories,” twitted an Advisor to the Ukrainian President. Earlier, the President and CEO of SpaceX said the Starlink service was “never meant to be weaponized,” therefore the company switched off some functions of Starlink satellite internet service that the UAF had used to operate UAVs. However, Ukraine’s minister of digitalization said, “Indeed, a few months ago, there were changes in the functioning of geofencing. Currently, there are no problems with the operation of Starlink terminals in Ukraine.” A possible change to the system’s functioning may cause serious implications for the UAF’s ability to carry out certain operations.

Russia, relevant news

Most likely seeking to mirror Ukraine’s efforts to seek justice for the Russian crime of aggression, the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation indicted in absentia former Acting Minister of Defense of Ukraine Mikhail Koval and former Minister of Defense Valeriy Heletey for reportedly coordinating military aggression against the inhabitants of Donbas in 2014.

The German chemical and industrial concern Henkel is going to sell its business in Russia in the first quarter of 2023. Its CEO Karsten Knobel said that the process of exiting the market is very complicated, as a large number of requirements from the Russian authorities must be followed.

Spotify and Swiss chocolate brand Lindt started liquidating their legal entities in Russia.

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