CDS Daily brief (10.02.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Russia launched several waves of another massive air attacks throughout the territory of Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure;
• Ukrainian air defense shot down 61 out of 71 cruise missiles and 5 out of 7 kamikaze drones. 35 S300 missiles were launched at Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia in the largest attack on Zaporizhzhia to date;
• One of the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear power plant generating units was stopped, and four DTEK Energo TPPs were damaged as a result of today’s attacks;
• 461 children died, and more than 922 were injured as a result of the full-scale Russian aggression;
• Bodies of 61 more fallen soldiers were returned to Ukraine;
• Ukrainian anti-corruption agencies targeted Ukrainian customs throughout Ukraine with a series of searches. A detailed report is expected upon completion of the operation;
• Russian puppet DPR regime “nationalized” the property of Ukrainian oligarchs. Rynat Akhmetov was specifically targeted.

Military:

• The Russian military continues to focus on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka directions in the areas of Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Opytne, Maryinka and Vuhledar; the Kreminna direction should be considered the main one;
• The Russian military command tries to block the UAF supply routes in Bakhmut by cutting the E40 Bakhmut – Sloviansk highway and T0504 Kostiantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Bakhmut.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian military will develop an offensive in the direction of Lyman and Kupyansk;
• Local attacks in Avdiyivka, Maryinka, and Vuhledar will continue to force Ukrainian Joint Forces to scatter reserves and prevent the transfer of Ukrainian troops to strengthen the defense in the east of Kharkiv Oblast and the west of Luhansk.

International:

• The President of the International Olympic Committee is against the ban on Russian and Belarusian athletes from participating in the Paris Olympic games, claiming that it violates the fundamentals of the Olympic Movement. So far, 35 countries are calling for a boycott if citizens of the aggressor states are allowed to attend the Olympics.
• President Putin plans to give two speeches on February 21 and 22, an address to the Federal Assembly and at a large-scale propaganda concert.

Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of February 10, 2023, more than 1,383 children were affected in Ukraine as a result of the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation. According to the official information of juvenile prosecutors, 461 children died, and more than 922 were injured of various degrees of severity.

On February 10, 2023, the bodies of 61 more fallen soldiers were returned to Ukraine, the Ministry of Reintegration said.

Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets appealed to his Russian colleague Tatiana Moskalkova with a demand to provide official information about the deaths of Ukrainian citizens Konstantin Shiring and Dzhemily Gafarov, who were held prisoners in Russia and the causes of their deaths.

Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, 228 Ukrainian athletes and coaches have died, President Zelensky said.

Russian attacks

On February 10, Russia launched several waves of another massive attack throughout Ukraine, targeting critical infrastructure. Ukrainian air defense shot down 61 out of 71 cruise missiles and 5 out of 7 kamikaze drones.

• During   the   night,   Russia   launched   a   drone    attack.   Explosions   were   recorded in Zaporizhzhia and Vinnytsia.
• In the morning, 10 explosions were recorded in Kharkiv. In Zaporizhzhia, 17 Russian impacts were recorded in an hour, constituting the largest number since the full-scale invasion began, the Zaporizhzhia City Council Secretary, Anatoly Kurtev, said. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, this was the largest S300 missile attack to date, with 35 missiles launched from the Russian Belgorod Oblast and the city of Tokmak in the occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• In the third wave of attack, Kharkiv, Kyiv Oblast, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ivano- Frankivsk and Lviv Oblasts reported attacks. Explosions were also recorded in Zhytomyr. An intercepted missile fell on the ground in Kyiv, damaging a residential building. 7 people were wounded in Kharkiv Oblast, including two people with serious injuries. A critical infrastructure object was hit in Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
• The fourth wave was launched in the evening. Shakhed kamikaze drones were shot down over Odesa, Mykolayiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.

Energy

In the course of another massive attack on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine, the Russian attackers hit several objects of high-voltage infrastructure in six regions, the press service of Ukrenergo reported. In addition, at night, the Russians attacked the energy infrastructure with drones and missiles, directing them to power plants and objects of the transmission system. This is the 14th massive Russian attack on the energy system of Ukraine, Ukrenergo stressed.

As a result of the Russian shelling during the night and the day, four DTEK Energo TPPs were damaged, and two station employees were injured, according to the “DTEK Energo”.

The situation is the most difficult in Kharkiv Oblast following the attack. There are blackouts in Khmelnytskyi Oblast and Odesa and Kyiv Oblasts.

One of the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear power plant generating units was stopped due to today’s attacks.

Occupied territories

The Russia-appointed head of the puppet DPR said today that Ukrainian businessman Rynat Akhmetov no longer owns any property in the Donbas; his property has become the property of “the state”. Akhmetov is one of the biggest Ukrainian Oligarchs of Donetsk Oblast. The decision to confiscate property also concerns other Ukrainian oligarchs.

The Russian Ministry of Digital Transformation was instructed to create a single mobile operator that will cover the territories of four newly annexed regions by the Russian Federation and build over 1.5 thousand base communication stations by March 2024.

Operational situation

General conclusion:

• The Russian military continues to focus its primary efforts on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka directions in the areas of Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Opytne, Maryinka and Vuhledar, the Kreminna direction should be considered the main one;
• The Russian military command tries to block the supply routes of Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut by cutting the E40 Bakhmut – Sloviansk highway and T0504 Kostiantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Bakhmut.

Battleline:

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Hryanykivka and Masyutivka of Kharkiv Oblast; Bilohorivka, Stelmakhivka and Dibrova of Luhansk Oblast and Fedirivka, Krasna Gora, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka and Prechystivka in Donetsk Oblast;
• Russian troops continued their offensive on the Svatove-Kreminna section. Units of the 90th tank division of the Central Military District, supported by TOS-1 heavy flamethrowers from the 1st mobile radiation, chemical and biological protection brigade of the same military district, operate in the Kreminna area of Lyman direction. The offensive is developing to the north of Bilohorivka along the Shepilove-Dibrova line. Units of the “Wagner” PMC advance to Ivanivske and attack along the E40 highway near Orihovo-Vasylivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka, storming Krasna Hora from three directions.
• On the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk, the Russian forces resumed the offensive near Krasnohorivka and advanced near Vodyane and Opytne but could not break through near Pervomaiske. They continued the offensive with the forces of the 5th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army corps in western Maryinka.
• The Russian military tries to resume the offensive in the Vuhledar area, where the “volunteer” battalion “Alga” from Tatarstan from the composition of the 72nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 3rd Army corps was spotted. The 36th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 29th Army of the Eastern Military District operates on the eastern outskirts of Vuhledar.

Change in enemy disposition:

• A detachment of the “Wagner” PMC, previously staffed by former prisoners, was sent to the village of Myrne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast to restore combat capability.

Escalation indicators:

• The Russian forces transferred the most recent models of combat equipment to the Kreminna direction, namely “Terminator” BMPT, TOS-1 heavy flamethrowers;
• We should expect the withdrawal of the 40th and 155th separate marines brigades of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Armed Forces to restore combat capability due to heavy losses.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian military will develop an offensive in the direction of Lyman and Kupyansk;
• Local attacks in Avdiyivka, Maryinka and Vuhledar will continue to force the command of the Ukrainian Joint Forces to scatter reserves and prevent the transfer of troops to strengthen the defense in the east of Kharkiv Oblast and the west of Luhansk.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

• The weather conditions have improved (2-3 points at sea), and the Russian fleet has brought Kalibr missile carriers, both surface ships and submarines, into the sea to launch a missile strike. On the morning of February 10, 28 Kalibr and Onyx missiles were fired from surface ships and Bastion coastal missile systems in two waves. Two Kalibr missiles passed through the airspace of Moldova on the way to the city of Chernivtsi. 13 missiles were shot down over the Black Sea on the approach to the city of Odesa. In addition, Shahed-136 kamikaze drones were launched from the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov.
• There are no ships in the waters of the Sea of Azov.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 20 sorties of Russian aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.02.23

Personnel – almost 135,740 people (+730)

Tanks – 3,258 (+3)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,471 (+3);

Artillery systems – 2,251 (+7);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 463 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 233 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5, 5126 (+5);

Aircraft – 295 (0);

Helicopters – 286 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,970 (+3); Intercepted cruise missiles – 796 (+0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The State Bureau and the Security Service of Ukraine conducted a joint anti-corruption operation involving searches across the entire customs vertical. About 50 private entities were also uncovered, which helped customs officers implement shadow schemes. Currently, their activities are blocked, the Bureau of Investigation says. A detailed report on their findings once the operation was completed.

The cabinet of Ministers dismissed 5 Deputy Interior Ministers who had filed their resignations after the appointment of the new Interior Minister and Denys Kudin, the First Deputy Minister of Economy. The procedure stipulates the resignation of Deputy Interior Ministers.

MP Oleh Voloshyn was charged with treason. Voloshyn represents the [pro-Russian] Opposition Platform for Life political party, banned in Ukraine by a court decision.

International diplomatic aspect

At least thirty-five countries support calls by Ukraine to ban Russian and Belarusian athletes from the summer Olympics next year. “There will be no Russian athletes at the Games of Paris 2024 as long as Russia continues to wage war on Ukraine,” the mayor of Paris said while addressing the City Council of Kyiv. We know that many Russian athletes are connected to sports clubs of the Russian army and security forces… have a military or other special rank. We know that Russia is trying to use any attention the world has on the Russians for war propaganda. If God forbid, the Olympic principles are destroyed, and Russian athletes are allowed to participate in some competitions or the Olympic Games, it is only a matter of time before the terrorist state forces them to play along with the war propaganda,” President Zelensky addressed ministers of sports of partner countries.

However, International Olympic Committee President Thomas Bach believes banning citizens of Russia and Belarus from the games will violate the Olympic Charter. Moreover, he believes that Ukraine’s calls to boycott the games are going “against the fundamentals of the Olympic

Movement” and should help citizens of aggressor states to be allowed to participate. Thomas Bach even went as far as implicitly threatening Ukraine as “history has shown, previous boycotts did not achieve their political ends and only served to punish the athletes of boycotting National Olympic Committees.”

Thomas Bach failed to recall that Moscow was successfully boycotted in 1980 for its invasion of Afghanistan. Sixty-five nations refused to participate in the games, whereas eighty countries sent athletes to compete. Even China joined the US calls to boycott the Soviet show of communism’s superiority over capitalism. Neither he recalled that Russia launched its war of aggression against Georgia on the first day of the Olympic games in Beijing in August 2008 and against Ukraine while hosting the winter games in Sochi in February 2014; and waged its full-scale invasion again right after the games in Beijing in February 2022. Since February 24, 228 Ukrainian athletes and coaches have died. A compromise of allowing to participate only those athletes that don’t support the aggressive war wasn’t even proposed, while the widespread use of invasion signs (Latin letter “Z”) by Russian sportsmen isn’t condemned. Sport in an authoritarian and totalitarian society is always a part of boosting morale at home and propaganda abroad. It was true for the games in Nazi Germany in 1936 and throughout the history of the Soviet Union and communist China. It is high time to acknowledge the fact that it is not just Putin’s war against Ukraine, but almost the entire Russian population, including sportsmen, is involved.

Russia, relevant news

A large-scale propaganda concert is being prepared to mark the so-called “Defender’s Day” celebrated in Russia on February 23. Russian President Putin is expected to participate and make a speech. The event is planned for February 22 in Moscow, in the Luzhniki Stadium, which seats 200 thousand of people. In addition to the main stage, a zone for historical reconstruction and an exhibition of Russian army equipment will be organized. Several scenes will be set up for the concert itself. The “activists of youth and patriotic organizations” will take part in the rally.

The Kremlin also said that on February 21, Putin would announce a message to the Federal Assembly in Gostiny Dvor in Moscow.

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