CDS Daily brief (11.02.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Russia fired 106 missiles at Ukraine in a large-scale attack on February 10. The Russian military fired 32 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 74 air- and sea-launched cruise missiles, 61 of which were shot down by air defense forces. Twelve people were injured, and 58 objects were damaged, mostly residential buildings.
• Due to Russian strikes on energy facilities, emergency power outages were introduced in Kharkiv. In Khmelnytskyi, more than half of consumers are still without electricity.
• The Prosecutor General’s Office considers Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities as part of the crime of genocide.
• Russian troops used surface drones to attack the bridge in Zatoka, Odesa Oblast. They pose a threat to civilian shipping in the Black Sea, said CHoD Valeriy Zaluzhny.
• Almost all Ukrainian refugees of working age who wanted to work in Poland found a job.

Military:

• We should expect an increase in the enemy’s efforts in the Lyman, Bakhmut and Novopavlivka directions.
• The restoration of combat capability of the “Cascade”, “Kalmius”, and 11th motorized rifle regiment, which will soon be put into battle in the Novopavlivka direction, has been completed.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy continues to conduct offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions;
• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on the encirclement of Bakhmut, advancing in the Kreminna area and taking Vuhledar.

International:

• POTUS will visit Poland on the eve of Russia’s all-out invasion anniversary. Ukraine and its partners are working on a General Assembly’s peace plan resolution.
• China is allegedly willing to buy some 16,000 Iran-made drones.
• Ukraine prohibited the operation of energy units 3, 4, 5, and 6 at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and shut down a reactor unit at the Khmelnytskyi NPP due to shelling.
• Moldova protests the violation of its airspace by a Russian missile, while Romania denies it has overflown the NATO territory.
• Russia will cut its oil production by about 5%, claiming the price cap reaction, though it’s more likely caused by an inability to sell what it produces.
• Kosovo’s President warns that Wagner PMC smuggles weapons into Kosovo to help Serbs launch an “a la Crimea” attack. While Serbs may hope for success, Russians would be satisfied even with their brotherly nation’s failure because it will divert the West’s attention from Ukraine and provide it additional leverage.
• Only 9% of almost one and a half thousand global companies left the market of the Russian Federation.

Humanitarian aspect:

Russian attacks

On Friday, Russia fired 106 missiles at Ukraine, according to the morning summary of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukrainian military officials say that the Russian military fired 32 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 74 air- and sea-launched cruise missiles, 61 of which were shot down by air defense forces. Serhiy Kruk, the head of the State Emergency Service, says that 12 people were injured in Ukraine due to a large-scale Russian missile attack on February 10 According to him, yesterday’s terrorist attack resulted in damage to 58 objects, mostly residential buildings.

The consequences of enemy shelling on the morning of February 11

• At night, the enemy attacked Odesa from planes and the coastal complex “Bastion”. Missiles hit the coastal zone. The enemy also dropped 4 aerial bombs on Zmiiny Island.
  • The enemy attacked energy facilities in two communities in   the   Kryvyi   Rih district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. One of the objects was already affected earlier. The Nikopol district also came under attack: a drone strike there caused a fire at an energy infrastructure facility.
  • Yesterday Maryinka, Georgiyivka and Maksimilianivka in Donetsk Oblast were under fire. In Uspenivka, 3 people were injured, and 17 houses, a school, an administrative building and a shop were damaged. Five houses were damaged in the Soledar community. In Bakhmut, an administrative building and a high-rise residential building were damaged; in Krasna Hora, one person died.
  • During the past 24 hours, the enemy fired on at least 17 border villages of Bohodukhiv, Chuhuyiv (1 wounded), Kupyansk and Kharkiv districts of Kharkiv Oblast. In Vovchansk, apartment buildings, industrial facilities, a pharmacy, a kindergarten and other civilian facilities were damaged. In Kupyansk, 7 private houses were damaged by shelling.
  • Yesterday, the water area of the Kutsurub and Ochakiv communities of Mykolaiv Oblast was under artillery fire. There are no casualties.
  • Yesterday,   civilian   objects   in   the   Zaporizhzhia,    Vasylivka   and   Polohy    districts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast were hit by enemy fire. The enemy army launched 18 missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia using kamikaze drones, S-300 and X-101 missiles, reported the press service of the National Security Service in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The police recorded hits on the territories of the enterprise, the garden society, and objects of civil and critical infrastructure. Three more strikes were made around 10:30 a.m. by Kh-101 strategic air- to-ground cruise missiles.
  • The occupiers shelled the territory of the Kherson Oblast 63 times; 3 wounded were reported. In Kherson, residential buildings and the building of a railway station were damaged by enemy shells.

Valery Zaluzhny confirmed that Russian troops used a new type of drone, surface drone, to attack the bridge in Zatoka, Odesa Oblast. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine informed US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley about the use of

such drones during a telephone conversation. Surface drones pose a threat to civilian shipping in the Black Sea, added Zaluzhny.

Energy

Due to Russian strikes on energy facilities, emergency power outages were introduced in Kharkiv. Ukrenergo calls the electricity situation “difficult but manageable” and warns of possible blackouts in Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Kyiv Oblasts and Kyiv. Network restrictions apply in these regions.

According to Kharkiv mayor Ihor Terekhov, the energy system suffered significant damage due to missile strikes, and transformer substations were destroyed. Still, energy and utility companies made it possible to stabilize the situation within a day. Concerning the work of industry and the provision of electricity to enterprises, the mayor said that the situation is difficult since it is impossible to cover their needs in full, but Oblenergo, together with the authorities, agreed on certain schedules so that enterprises can continue operating. Terekhov noted that recently Russian troops increased the number of missile strikes on Kharkiv.

In Khmelnytskyi, more than half of consumers are still without electricity after the Russian missile attack; emergency shutdowns were applied.

The Prosecutor General’s Office considers Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities as part of the crime of genocide, emphasized Yuriy Belousov, the head of the Department for Combating Crimes in the Conditions of Armed Conflict, in an interview with Lb.ua. He noted that since October last year, the number of enemy attacks on critical infrastructure objects has increased. “From October to December 2022, 70% of the strikes were on the power system, if compared with the whole of last year. This confirms the fact that the enemy struck and committed these crimes deliberately,” Belousov said. According to him, until October, the invaders mainly tried to hit the infrastructure objects, more or less close to the front line, and after, they started to attack the entire energy system of the country.

Ukrainian displaced persons

Since the beginning of the war, about 900,000 refugees from Ukraine have been employed in Poland on simplified terms. Research conducted by the EWL Migration Platform and the Center for East European Studies of the University of Warsaw shows that almost all working-age refugees from Ukraine who expressed a desire to work in Poland found a job.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• We should expect an increase in the enemy’s efforts in the Lyman, Bakhmut and Novopavlivka directions.

Battleline:

• Units of the Defense Forces repelled the Russian attacks in the areas of Kreminna, Shipylivka and Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast and Krasna Gora, Bakhmut, Ivanovske and Paraskoviivka in Donetsk Oblast.
  • The enemy attacked from Chornopopivka to Ivanivka, from Kreminna to Yampolivka, through Dibrova to Torske, and from Kreminna – along Siversky Donets to Serebryanka in the south. The enemy managed to advance up to 500 meters, set up new positions in several places and capture Bilohorivka.
  • In the Bakhmut area, the enemy captured Mykolaivka and is advancing from there on Vasyukivka, Fedorivka and Rozdolivka. They control most of Krasna Hora and are trying to break through Paraskoviivka in the direction of the local hospital. The section of the M03 highway is under enemy control, and units of the PMC “Wagner” are advancing through it in a southerly direction.
  • Units of the Joint Forces withdrew in the direction of the Bakhmutka River, inflicting significant losses on the enemy. They stopped the advance of Russian units in the Stupochky, Chasiv Yar and Ivanovske areas, although the enemy keeps part of the T0504 highway under fire control.

Change in enemy disposition:

• For the fourth time, the restoration of combat capability of the “Cascade”, “Kalmius”, and 11th motorized rifle regiment, which will soon be put into battle in the Novopavlivka direction, has been completed.

Escalation indicators: not detected.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy continues to conduct offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions;
  • The enemy concentrates its main efforts on the encirclement of Bakhmut, advancing in the Kreminna area and taking Vuhledar.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

• to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
• to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

• The enemy brought 11 surface ships to the sea, which are performing tasks south of the Crimean Peninsula. Among them are two Kalibr missile carriers. Together, they can have up to 16 Kalibr missiles on board.
  • There are no ships in the waters of the Sea of Azov.
  • Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 22 sorties of enemy aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.
  • In particular, two Su-24M aircraft carried out combat bombing with 4 aerial bombs on Zmiiny Island. The goal was demonstration actions and possibly evaluation of the response of Ukrainian air defense systems on the coast.
  • During the missile attack on January 10, three P-800 “Onyx” missiles, launched from the coastal missile complexes “Bastion”, hit areas on the coast near Odessa.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.02.23

Personnel – almost 136,880 people (+1140)

Tanks – 3,267 (+9)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,474 (+3);

Artillery systems – 2,270 (+19);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 463 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 234 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,134 (+8); Aircraft – 295 (0);

Helicopters – 286 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 1,997 (+27); Intercepted cruise missiles – 857 (+61);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The Security Service of Ukraine charged in absentia the head of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, Alexander Bastrykin. In the course of investigative actions, the SBU said, Bastrykin’s activities to establish a new regime and suppress resistance in the occupied territories of Ukraine were documented. In addition, Bastrykin publicly justifies the armed aggression of the Russian Federation and the seizure of part of the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine.

International diplomatic aspect

While POTUS will visit Poland on the eve of the anniversary of Russia’s all-out invasion, Ukraine and its partners are working on a General Assembly’s resolution on “Principles underlying a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine.” Based on the 10-point plan of President Zelensky, the draft, however, is less precise and sharp to gather more support from the “nonaligned” parts of the globe. Yet the critical message of the document is to demand that Russia “immediately, completely, and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces” from Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders. A pivotal position that should not be compromised is leaving Russia no territorial gains from its war of aggression. This critical condition of restoring norms and principles of international law enshrined in the UN Charter and for a clear signal to

other actors that might be waging options to grab their neighbors’ territories. The UN GA was instrumental in rejecting the illegal annexation of Crimea nine years ago (68/262 of 27 March 2014 on Territorial integrity of Ukraine) and Russian aggression a year ago (ES-11/1 of 2 March 2022 on Aggression against Ukraine).

It’s been reported that China is willing to buy some 16,000 Iran-made drones. China designs, produces and exports various types of its own drones. According to SPRI, PRC delivered 163 strike-capable UAVs to foreign countries between 2008 and 2018. Beijing claimed to develop a UAV with a range of 10,000 kilometers and a payload of up to 2,300 kilograms (Wing Loong-3). Though recently, Western countries imposed export control restrictions, China is capable of producing advanced chips, including for UAV production. Therefore, if an agreement is not an Iranian PSYOP, it’s not about the technological design (though Shahed-129 is a reverse- engineered Israeli Elbit Hermes 450) or difficulties in obtaining components. It rather means that China has learned from the Russian war in Ukraine that a low-cost, low-risk, and long-distance capability has a considerable advantage. The massive overflight of the Taiwanese Air Defense Identification Zone by the PRC air force (71 military aircraft in a single day and more than 1,700 incursions in 2022) is capable of wearing out defense capabilities even without an actual invasion. The employment of thousands of drones and other means in an assault is a great challenge to Taiwan. Therefore, curbing Iran’s ability to produce drones and missiles (export control enforcement and taking down design and production facilities) is of great importance for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and the United States.

The IAEA acknowledged the receipt of Ukraine’s nuclear regulator’s warning about the imposition of restrictions on the operations at the energy units 3, 4, 5, and 6 at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. It has been done due to the “impossibility of eliminating identified violations of nuclear and radiation safety requirements. Therefore, the operation of the specified nuclear facilities at energy levels of power is prohibited.” The industrial site of the ZNPP is periodically targeted by shelling, and the communication lines with the energy system of Ukraine have been damaged. In addition, several key premises, particularly the information and crisis center, are occupied by Russian soldiers and thus can’t be used for operational purposes. Moreover, the power plants in Rivne and in southern Ukraine “had reduced power output as a precautionary measure due to renewed shelling of the country’s energy infrastructure.” One of the Khmelnytskyi NPP reactor units was shut down due to shelling. So far, talks with Moscow on the “nuclear safety and security protection zone” around ZNPP bore no fruit. Meanwhile, Hungary threatens to block the EU restrictive measures if there’re sanctions against Rosatom, the Russian company that illegally acquired and operates the ZNPP.

Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, said two Russian missiles launched off the coast of Crimea strayed across the border with Moldova and over Romania before re-entering Ukrainian airspace. Moldova summons the Russian ambassador to protest the aggressive move. However, Romania denies that a missile violated its airspace, “the closest point of the target’s trajectory to Romania’s airspace was recorded by the radar systems approximately 35 kilometers North-East of the border.” “We remain in close contact and communication with our Moldovan partners and our Romanian allies and continue to believe

that at this time we have no indication of a direct military threat by Russia against Moldova or Romania,” the US Department of State spokesperson said. It’s not the first time Russian missiles overflew the Moldovan airspace, and there are cases of debris falling there. Yet, it’s the first time a missile allegedly violated the airspace of a NATO country. Even if it’s not the case, there should be a strong reaction, or Russians will take it for granted to proceed further.

Russia plans to cut its oil production by about 5% (500,000 barrels a day or about half a percent of global demand) next month, according to the WSJ. The Russian officials sent contradicting messages about coordinating their steps with their OPEC+ partners. Though the Kremlin claims the measure is a reaction to the price cap introduced by the West, it’s highly likely caused by difficulties selling the oil it produces elsewhere after the Western markets become unwelcoming.

Kosovo’s President Vjosa Osmani told The Telegraph that the Russian mercenary Wagner Group smuggles weapons in Kosovo, aiming at launching a hybrid attack by Serbia to grab Kosovan territory. Serbia, which is driven by resentment and ultra-nationalism, might be useful for blowing up a fragile balance in the “underbelly” of Europe. The Serbs may hope for the success of an “a la Crimea operation.” At the same time, even a failure would satisfy the Kremlin because it would divert the West’s attention from Ukraine and provide it additional leverage.

Russia, relevant news

Only 9% of almost one and a half thousand global companies left the market of the Russian Federation, wrote Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the President’s Office, in his Telegram account. “Among the Western companies that remained working in Russia, the largest share is German (19.5%), 12.4% – American, 7% – Japanese,” he said. In particular, the following remained working in the terrorist state: METRO, Leroy Merlin, Auchan, Nestle, Unilever, Procter & Gamble, Siemens, Pfizer, Philip Morris, Bayer, Acer, Alibaba, CloudFlare, Societe Generale, Credit Suisse, Lenovo, Asus, Cersanit etc.

Podolyak also reported that some Western banks received surplus profits in Russia during the year of the full-scale war. For example, Raiffeisen increased its profit in Russia by 313%. For 2022, the profit of the Russian branch amounted to 474 million euros, which is the largest among the South-Eastern Europe branches. During the last fiscal year, Raiffeisen replenished the Russian treasury by 94.8 million euros only with Corporate income tax. The amount of other fees is much higher. In other words, this is a tax on the war, on the killing of Ukrainians, said the adviser to the head of the OP. Moreover, Raiffeisen recognized the “LPR/DPR” pseudo-republic, offering a credit vacation to the partially mobilized. Citibank, Credit Europe Bank and OTP Bank followed its example.

He noted that working in the Russian Federation, international companies pay taxes to the Russian state budget, which are used to manufacture products of the defense-industrial complex. The total annual turnover of these 1,200+ companies in Russia is almost 290 billion dollars. This is a fifth of the GDP of the Russian Federation.

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