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CDS Daily brief (12.02.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

  • 9 Oblasts came under Russian fire on February 11. Killed and wounded civilians were reported. Kharkiv was under fire again. Kamikaze drones were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • The WHO estimated the damage to Ukrainian medicine at $26 billion, stated the Minister of Health of Ukraine with reference to WHO calculations. 1,218 Ukrainian medical facilities were damaged, and 173 were destroyed beyond repair.
  • Electricity consumption in Ukraine remains significant due to the drop in temperature, but no power shortage was introduced due to ongoing repairs and relaunching of two NPP units. Ukraine’s energy system has survived 14 enemy missile and 17 UAV attacks on energy facilities. More than 10 GW of the main generating capacities are currently inaccessible and under the enemy’s control.
  • Volodymyr Zelensky, by his decree, approved the decision of the National Security and Defense Council to impose personal sanctions against 200 people associated with Russia.

Military:

  • The enemy concentrates its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions;
  • The enemy grouping, operating in the Soledar area, is trying to develop an offensive on Siversk to get to the rear of the Defense Forces units, which continue to hold Bilohorivka and Verkhnyokamianske and thus pose a threat to Lysychansk and Kreminna;
  • By reaching Siversk, the enemy’s command will create conditions for a further offensive on Lyman, secure their positions in Lysychansk and enter the near approaches to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the east.
  • Up to two enemy air assault and parachute airborne battalions are deployed to the south and southwest of Kreminna.
  • Possible operation situation developments: Escalation should be expected in the northern Luhansk and southeastern Kharkiv regions.
  • Sea: There is an indication of a possible intensification of the actions of the Russian military in the maritime direction.

International:

  • The Ukrainian Military Intelligence intercepted drone operators’ conversation in the Kurdish language using few words in Farsi.
  • 81 OSCE delegates called on Austria, a safe haven for Russian money, businesses, and spies, to ban Russians from participation in the Parliamentary Assembly’s meeting dedicated to the anniversary of the all-out invasion.
Humanitarian aspect:

Russian attacks

The Russian army shelled nine regions of Ukraine on February 11. The consequences of enemy shelling on the morning of February 12

  • The Russian military shelled the territory of Kherson Oblast 49 times, 1 person was injured. Residential buildings were damaged in Kherson.
  • 9 houses in Kurakhivka and 3 houses in Gostre were damaged due to the enemy shelling of Donetsk Oblast. Artillery shelling of Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, and Novomykhailivka continued during the night. In Bakhmut, 1 killed and 2 wounded civilians were reported; the administrative building and 2 private houses were damaged. One wounded was reported in Stupochki. 4 houses were damaged in Vasyukivka, 4 in Minkivka and 1 in Fedorivka.
  • Yesterday, law enforcement officers recorded 16 reports of the destruction of civilian objects by enemy fire in the Zaporizhzhia, Polohy and Vasylivka districts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Yesterday, around 11:15 p.m., the enemy launched another rocket attack on Kharkiv. One of the enterprises was damaged. There was also a hit at the “New Post” postal company depot; 1 person was wounded. On February 11, the enemy also shelled the border Chuhuyiv and Kupyansk districts. In Vovchansk, 13 residential and commercial buildings were destroyed, and the building of the National Police was damaged.
  • Yesterday, the enemy struck the water area and the populated areas of Ochakiv hromada of Mykolaiv Oblast. A residential building was damaged. No victims were reported.
  • In the morning, the Russians shelled Nikopol of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; a 53-year-old woman died, and another woman was injured. In the city, four high-rise buildings, a water supply and a college building were damaged. Yesterday evening, air defense forces shot down four kamikaze drones on approach to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Yesterday evening the Russians fired mortars at the territory of the Myropillia community of Sumy Oblast.
Healthcare System

The World Bank and the World Health Organization estimate the damage to Ukraine’s medical system from Russian aggression at $26 billion, the Minister of Health of Ukraine Viktor Lyashko said in an interview with Ukrinform with reference to WHO calculations. At the same time, according to the assessment of the Ministry of Health, the restoration of damaged medical infrastructure objects will cost up to 1 billion dollars, he noted. The minister added that Ukraine currently does not have access to the healthcare facilities located in the temporarily occupied territories and cannot assess their condition and degree of damage.

According to the minister, 1,218 medical facilities were damaged due to Russian aggression. 173 objects were destroyed beyond 90%. In such cases, the objects are not considered for restoration; the construction of a new building may be based on a new project. As reported by Ukrinform, since the start of the full-scale war, at least 24 medical workers have been killed, and more than 60 have been injured.

Energy

As of the morning of February 12, electricity consumption in Ukraine remains significant due to the drop in temperature, but no power shortage was introduced thanks to the work of Ukrenergo

repair crews and the relaunch of two NPP units, reported Ukrenergo. Restoration work continues at thermal power plants damaged during missile attacks and drone attacks.

Ukraine’s energy system has already survived 14 enemy missile attacks and 17 waves of UAV attacks on energy facilities. In addition, more than 10 GW of the main installed capacities are currently inaccessible to the Ukrainian energy system and are under the control of the enemy.

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which is under the control of Russian terrorists, is deteriorating. The current actions of the Russians jeopardize the possibility of quickly connecting the station to the network after its liberation by Ukraine, said Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko. “And this is not only our assessment, this assessment coincides with the assessment of IAEA specialists. We talked about it with Grossi; he knows it, and his experts who are on the ground.”

Occupied territories

In the temporarily occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, occupation law enforcement officers opened fire to disperse pensioners who had been queuing at the post office since midnight to receive their social payments, according to the [legitimate Ukrainian] Berdyansk city military administration report on Telegram. The administration explained that the occupation authorities banned the hryvnia in the occupied territories, so people in Berdyansk were forced to take their payments in rubles to survive. There is no established system in the temporarily occupied territories; therefore, Berdyansk residents have to stand in lines for days to receive payments or pay for services. As earlier reported by Ukrinform, the Russian occupiers have not let people out of the temporarily occupied territories through the checkpoint in Vasylivka for more than two months. Moreover, people are being forced to obtain Russian passports under the threat of confiscation of property and deprivation of pensions and other social benefits.

In the temporarily occupied part of Kherson Oblast, the Russians are appropriating the housing of local residents, said the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook. The servicemen of the Russian occupation forces are actively visiting houses and checking that citizens have residence permits and home ownership documents. Also, according to the General Staff, abandoned houses are sealed with notices that the premises have become the property of the so-called occupying “local administration.”

Operational situation General conclusion:
  • The enemy concentrates its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions;
  • The enemy grouping, which operated in the Soledar area, is trying to develop an offensive on Siversk to get to the rear of the Defense Forces units, which continue to hold Bilohorivka and Verkhnyokamianske and thus pose a threat to Lysychansk and even Kreminna;
  • By reaching Siversk, the enemy’s command will create conditions for a further offensive on Lyman, secure their positions in Lysychansk and enter the near approaches to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the east.
Battleline:
  • The Defense Forces units repelled the enemy attacks in Bilohorivka and Serebryanka forestry areas in Luhansk Oblast and Torske, Fedorivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Chasiv Yar, Pervomaiske, Pobyeda, Maryinka and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast.
  • With the forces of the 138th separate motorized rifle brigade units of the 6th Army, the enemy continues to advance on Dvorichne and Hryanykivka, attacking them from Lyman Pershy and Tavilzhanka to reach the Oskil River frontier.
  • The enemy units of the 104th air assault regiment of the 76th Air assault division tried to create conditions for the next offensive towards Lyman, Serebryanka.
  • Units of the 6th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps unsuccessfully attacked in the direction of the Lysychansk Refinery – the area northeast of Verkhnyokamianske and Mykolaivka – Spirne.
Change in enemy disposition:
  • The enemy transferred the battalion of the 428th motorized rifle regiment of the 57th motorized rifle division (Territorial Forces) from the Dibrova area to the southern outskirts of Kreminna and deployed it in the direction of Serebryanka; two battalions of the 124th separate motorized rifle brigade are also deployed in this direction. The enemy command engaged the 13th BARS detachment and the consolidated “Akhmat” detachment in this area.
  • Up to two air assault and parachute airborne battalions from the composition of the 76th Air assault division and the 98th airborne division are deployed to the south and southwest of Kreminna.
Escalation indicators:
  • The artillery of the 1st Tank Army and the 20th Combined Arms Army has deployed to new firing positions.
Possible operation situation developments:
  • Escalation should be expected in the northern Luhansk and southeastern Kharkiv regions.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

  • to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
  • to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

  • The enemy brought 11 surface ships and two submarines to sea, which are performing tasks south of the Crimean Peninsula. Submarines are carriers of Kalibr missiles. Together, they can have up to 8 Kalibr missiles on board.
  • One patrol boat was on duty in the Sea of Azov waters.
  • Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 26 sorties of enemy aircraft over the Black Sea were recorded.
  • On February 10-11, the use of naval drones near the city of Zatoka, along with the recent air strikes by kamikaze drones and missiles on the ports of southern Ukraine and the dropping of bombs from Su-24M aircraft on Zmiiny Island, is demonstrative of the ability of the Russian Federation to project military power to the northwest part of the Black Sea, including to the “grain initiative” navigation (the second term of which ends on March 23, 2023).
  • There is an indication of a possible intensification of the actions of the Russian Federation in the maritime direction. Over the past few weeks, repairs on amphibious ships in Sevastopol, the intensification of marine infantry training for possible amphibious operations (on the Kinburn Peninsula), the concentration of forces in the west of Crimea, the active use of the Russian special forces to control the islands in the Dnieper delta were noted.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.02.23

Personnel – almost 137,780 people (+900)

Tanks – 3,280 (+13)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,488 (+14);

Artillery systems – 2,287 (+17);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 465 (+2); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 234 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,148 (+14); Aircraft – 296 (+1);

Helicopters – 286 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,007 (+10); Intercepted cruise missiles – 857 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Volodymyr Zelensky, by his decree, approved the decision of the National Security and Defense Council to impose personal sanctions against 200 people associated with Russia. The list includes 199 Russian Federation citizens and one Ukraine citizen. A full package of sanctions restrictions, according to Zelensky’s decree, is introduced for 50 years. Sanctions included Andrey Petrov, head of Rosenergoatom, Yury Yakovlev, deputy head of Rosatom, and Yury Ushakov, assistant to the President of Russia for foreign policy. The only Ukrainian on the sanctions list is Yury Chernichuk, deputy chief engineer of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, who defected to Russia and was appointed director of the ZNPP.

International diplomatic aspect

While Russia was targeting Ukrainian cities with a missile and drone attack on February 10, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (GUR) intercepted a conversation between the drone operators. Two men clarified the coordinates of a target in a dialect of the Kurdish language with a few words in Farsi. The GUR has previously reported about Iranian instructors that trained Russian militaries. But it’s the first time Iranian operators, likely mercenaries, have been detected.

Eighty-one OSCE delegates from a couple of dozen countries called on the Austrian Foreign Minister to prohibit the participation of the sanctioned Russian delegates at the OSCE’s parliamentary assembly’s meeting dedicated to a year of Russian all-out aggression against Ukraine. The Russian delegation includes infamous Deputy Duma Chairman Pyotr Tolstoy and an MP Leonid Slutsky. “It is important to remember that Russian parliamentarians are an integral part of the power system and complicit in the crimes Russia commits every day in Ukraine. They have no place in an institution tasked with promoting sincere dialogue and opposition to the war,” the appeal letter reads. Though the Austrian government condemned the Russian aggression, it tried to maintain as good relations with Moscow as possible under the current circumstances. Being a safe haven for Russian money, companies, and spies, Austria is considered in the CEE as Russia’s Trojan horse in western Europe. A video with the vice chancellor accepting an offer of financing from a woman claiming to be the niece of a Russian oligarch caused the fall of the pro-Russian government of Sebastian Kurz in 2019. Karin Kneissl, a former foreign minister who danced with Vladimir Putin and “earned” a lucrative job on the board of directors of Russia’s state gas company “Rosneft” is as notorious as Putin’s lobbyist in Europe, Gerhard Schroeder, a former German Chancellor. Germany in 2018 and the UK and Dutch in 2019 restricted the amount of intelligence they shared with Austria due to the possibility of its falling into Russian hands.

Russia, relevant news

The Swiss bank Credit Suisse froze the assets of Russians for 17.6 billion Swiss francs (more than

$19 billion), which is about a third of all assets of Russian citizens declared in the country. This was reported by Le Temps and Sonntags Zeitung.


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