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CDS Daily brief (14.02.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

  • More than 1,384 Ukrainian children have been affected by the war. 461 children died; more than 923 children were injured;
  • Russia drains water from the Kakhovka Reservoir to deprive Ukrainians who receive water from the Dnipro River of access to water supply, PM Shmyhal told at today’s Cabinet meeting;
  • The Cabinet of Ministers established an Interdepartmental Working Group on Humanitarian Demining;
  • Ukrenergo reported that there is no shortage in the Ukrainian energy system due to the increased productivity of hydroelectric power plants;
  • Another attempt by the Russians to start the [occupied] Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant failed because they lacked qualified personnel.
  • The Russian State Duma passed two laws that further integrated the recently occupied Ukrainian Oblasts into the Russian Federation.

Military:

  • The Russian military continues to focus on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions;
  • The Russian forces are trying to regain control over Terny, take control of Bakhmut, Maryinka and Vuhledar, surround Avdiivka, seize Donetsk Oblast and enter the approaches to Orikhiv;
  • The lack of resources for building up efforts in the Donetsk area does not allow the Russian command to combine the battles around Vuhledar and Bakhmut into a single operation.
  • The Russian military has failed to complete the operational encirclement of Bakhmut.
  • The activity of the ships of the Russian Federation is taking place along with intensified aerial reconnaissance in the northwestern part of the Black Sea.

Escalation indicators: Southern military district units are concentrated in Donetsk Oblast; the deployment of the 132nd motorized rifle division of the 1st AC was noted in the Avdiivka area.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The Russian command will continue offensives in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions;
  • In the coming days, the Russian forces will try to engage the reserves accumulated in the Mariupol area in the battles near Vuhledar;
  • The Southern Military District troops build-up indicates the preparation of an offensive in Donetsk Oblast.

“The Grain initiative”:

  • The number of vessels for loading has decreased. For the third month in a row, the Russians have deliberately sabotaged inspections under various unfounded pretexts. Since August 1, 732 vessels have exported 21 million tons of Ukrainian food to Asia,

Europe, and Africa, while the volume was supposed to amount to more than 35 million tons.

International:

  • Though there was no decision on F-16 at the Ramstein meeting, Ukraine’s Defense Minister is satisfied with the unity of partners and their vision of Ukraine’s victory as their own. The key issue was the training of whole units on Western weapons and equipment so that they would be promptly used in future counteroffensive operations.
  • Ukraine reported about the use of NATO systems by the Ukrainian forces. Accountability and transparency are key elements of maintaining trust between partners.
  • The US might transfer to Ukraine seized weapons intended for the Iran-backed militants in Yemen.
  • The Polish Foreign Ministry has fired all graduates of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.
Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of February 14, 2023, more than 1,384 Ukrainian children have been affected by the war, according to the Office of the Prosecutor General. 461 children died, and more than 923 children were injured of various degrees of severity. “These numbers are not final. Work is ongoing to establish them in the places of hostilities, in the temporarily occupied and liberated territories,” the prosecutors emphasize.

Russia drains water from the Kakhovka Reservoir to deprive Ukrainians who receive water from the Dnipro River of access to water supply, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said. “After the Russians partially destroyed and deliberately opened the locks of the Kakhovska HPP, we are losing thousands of cubic meters of water daily. As a result, 70% of towns and villages that receive water from the Dnipro may be left without access to drinking water,” Shmyhal added. In addition, there is an increased nuclear threat, as a decrease in the water level in the reservoir can affect the cooling systems of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Shmyhal said Russia’s goal is to make living conditions in Ukraine unbearable.

The Cabinet of Ministers established an Interdepartmental Working Group on Humanitarian Demining and approved regulations on its activities. First Deputy Prime Minister Yuliya Svyrydenko will head it. Demining will become one of the 5 key priorities of recovery already this year, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.

Russian attacks

On February 13, the Russian Federation troops attacked nine Ukraine regions, Ukrinform reported. At least 5 civilians were killed, and another 3 were injured. The shelling was the most intensive in Kharkiv, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts. In addition, Russia constantly shells the border regions of Chernihiv and Sumy. 100 hits were recorded in Sumy Oblast over the past day.

Russian forces shelled two medical facilities in Kherson Oblast today: a hospital in Kherson and a medical emergency station in Beryslav. Kherson Oblast Military Administration reported that the station’s building and ambulances were damaged, and a driver was injured.

Special Tribunal

Italy supports the establishment of a special tribunal for war crimes committed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, said the head of the Italian Foreign Ministry, Antonio Tajani. He stressed that killing innocent civilians is a war crime.

Energy

For the third day in a row, there is no deficit in the energy system due to the intensified work of hydroelectric plants; almost all of Ukraine currently has electricity, reported the press service of Ukrenergo. As Ukrenergo noted, a power unit at one of the power plants was taken offline for repair, but this is compensated by the increased work of hydroelectric plants, which have sufficient resources due to high water. The import of electricity from Slovakia is also ongoing. In some areas, e.g. Odesa, Lviv and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, there are still blackouts because the grid’s distribution capacity has been affected by the Russian attacks.

Occupied territories

According to Energoatom, another attempt by the Russian occupation authorities to start the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant failed because they lacked qualified personnel. Ukrainian NPP workers refused to train the Kalinin NPP representatives brought to Zaporizhzhia and to cooperate with the enemy.

According to the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD, a car bomb planted by Ukrainian partisans killed two and severely injured another two representatives of the occupation authorities in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast. There were soldiers and security service officers in the car. The explosion occurred on February 10, but the information became available only on February 14.

The law on the integration of the Ukrainian Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts into the Russian education system and of the law on the peculiarities of regulation in the field of health care, compulsory medical insurance and the circulation of medicines in the same oblasts passed the second and third readings in the Russian State Duma.

Operational situation General conclusion:
  • The Russian military continues to focus its primary efforts on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions;
  • The Russian forces are trying to regain control over Terny, take control of Bakhmut, Maryinka and Vuhledar, surround Avdiivka, seize Donetsk Oblast and enter the approaches to Orikhiv;
  • The lack of resources for building up efforts in the Donetsk area does not allow the Russian command to combine the battles in the Vuhledar and Bakhmut areas into a single operation.
Battleline:
  • Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Hryanykivka, Kharkiv Oblast; Nevske, Kreminna, Kuzmine, Shipylivka and Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast and Fedorivka, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Vodyane, Maryinka and Pobyeda in Donetsk Oblast;
  • The Russian military tried to attack the area between Ploschanka and Kreminna. It advanced in the Kupyansk direction and had tactical success near Hryanykivka, Dvorichne, Synkivka and Lyman Pershy. Russian troops also concentrate their efforts on the Lyman area and intensity the use of artillery in Luhansk Oblast.
  • The Ukrainian joint forces maintain control over Krasna Hora and repulsed all attacks on the T0504 Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka and near the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk roads. The Russian troops tried to advance between Rozdolivka and Vesele, developing their tactical success. The Russian military has failed to complete the operational encirclement of Bakhmut.
  • The Russian forces continued to advance on Nevelske. Assault groups of the 150th motorized rifle division fought in Maryinka. The 132nd motorized rifle division of the 1st army corps attacked north of Avdiyivka; the enemy became significantly more active in the Krasnohorivka area. Ukrainian Joint Forces destroyed the headquarters of the “Vostok” battalion with a HIMARS strike.
  • The Russian military tried to attack in the Robotyne-Mala Tokmachka section, approached the T0803 highway and formed conditions to advance to the north. Russian troops continue to build the defensive line in Tarasivka and have built up a system of engineering barriers along the line between Orihiv and Vasylivka.
Change in enemy disposition:
  • Russian troops rotated their units on the Kinburn Spit. Their forces are concentrated at the base of the spit to avoid Ukrainian artillery fire on the narrower sections.
  • The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation transferred 200 servicemen of the Russian National Guard to Lazurne to support counter-sabotage measures on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast.
Escalation indicators:
  • Military units and detachments of the Southern military district of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are concentrated in Donetsk Oblast;
  • In the Avdiivka area, the appearance of a new unit was noted – the 132nd motorized rifle division of the 1st army corps (previously, the corps consisted exclusively of brigades, regiments and separate battalions);
  • Due to the lack of metal tokens with a personal number used to identify a serviceman’s body, the 20th army units operating in Luhansk Oblast were ordered by their command to carry a bullet casing with a piece of paper in their breast pocket. On the piece of paper, each Russian occupier must write information about himself, a personal number, etc., which may indicate the preparation for an offensive and increased losses as its result.
Possible operation situation developments:
  • The Russian command will continue offensives in the Kupyansk, Lyman directions;
  • In the coming days, the Russian forces will try to engage the reserves, accumulated in the Mariupol area, in Vuhledar;
  • The Southern Military District troops build-up indicates the preparation of an offensive in Donetsk Oblast.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:

  • to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
  • to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.

The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine’s coastal regions.

  • The Russian fleet brought 14 surface ships and two submarines out to sea. They perform tasks south of the Crimean Peninsula. Project 1135.6 frigate and two project

636.3 submarines are Kalibr missile carriers. In total, they may have up to 16 Kalibr missiles on board. The activity of the ships of the Russian Federation is taking place along with intensified aerial reconnaissance in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 28 sorties of Russian aircraft were recorded.

  • One patrol boat was on duty in the Sea of Azov waters.
  • Repair of the second half of the Kerch Strait Bridge road is underway. 4 spans of the road in the direction of Crimea – Krasnodar Krai, with a length of 260 meters, were replaced. The installation of asphalt pavement and engineering systems is now underway. It is planned to resume the Kerch Strait highway operation in March 2023. After that, several spans of the railway bridge will be replaced, which will take another 3-4 months. Thus, the Crimean bridge can resume operation no earlier than July 2023.
  • After the end of the storm, the mine threat to the coastal zone increased. On February 12, a sea mine was discovered near Batumi (Georgia). The mine landed on the coast and exploded when it hit a rock 25 meters away from the coast.
  • “The Grain initiative”: the number of vessels for loading has decreased. Last week, 25 ships exported 1.1 million tons of agricultural products to countries in Africa, Asia and Europe. In particular, 54,000 tons of wheat were sent to Sri Lanka, 57,000 tons to Bangladesh, and 90,000 tons are expected in Kenya, Tunisia, and Egypt.
  • Compared to the previous week, the volume of exports through the ports of Greater Odesa increased by 152,000 tons. At the same time, the arrival rate of new vessels for loading continues to decrease. Last week, the ports of Greater Odesa received only 16 vessels and 25 the week before.
  • The tendency to decrease ship calls for agricultural exports is due to Russia’s actions in the Bosphorus inspection zone. For the third month in a row, the Russians have deliberately sabotaged inspections under various unfounded and sometimes absurd pretexts. For this reason, as of February 12, 145 ships are waiting in line for inspection by the Joint Coordination Center, including 122 ships heading to Ukrainian ports to get agricultural products.
  • Currently, there are 18 vessels in the ports of Greater Odesa. 584.5 thousand tons of Ukrainian food are loaded onto them. Only 1 vessel moves along the “grain corridor” after the inspection.
  • In order to increase the volume of exports in the current circumstances and reduce idle time, the tonnage of vessels participating in the Initiative will be increased. In particular, from 20,000 tons to 25,000 tons for grain and from 6,000 tons to 10,000 tons for oil. Considering that the average number of inspections of the incoming fleet is only 2.5 vessels per day, an increase in volume should be expected in one and a half months.
  • Since August 1, 732 vessels left the ports of Greater Odesa, exporting 21 million tons of Ukrainian food to the countries of Asia, Europe, and Africa (this volume was supposed to amount to more than 35 million tons in case of the regular functioning of the “Grain Initiative”).
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 14.02.23

Personnel – almost 139,080 people (+740)

Tanks – 3,286 (+3)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,500 (+8);

Artillery systems – 2,299 (+9);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 466 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 234 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,155 (+5); Aircraft – 298 (+2);

Helicopters – 286 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,011 (+4); Intercepted cruise missiles – 857 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

International diplomatic aspect

“I want to say that I heard clear messages from all representatives. This is full support for Ukraine until victory. And everyone considers Ukraine’s victory on the battlefield to be a victory. This is speed, timeliness, and stability. I wrote down these theses because that’s how they sounded,” Ukraine’s Defense Minister stated after the Ramstein meeting. “I don’t have any announcements on aircraft to make today,” the US Defense Secretary told the reporters. Lloyd Austin explained that the meeting of representatives of fifty-four countries wasn’t about “one single capability”

[warplanes], but it was “about delivering all the capabilities that we promised. It’s about integrating these systems together.”

Ukraine’s Defense Minister underlined the importance of the agreements that will allow Ukraine to train whole units of the Ukrainian forces on Western weapons and equipment so that “ready- made units carry out the tasks of the General Staff to liberate the temporarily occupied territories.” Spain will train fifty-five soldiers and technical personnel who will operate Leopard MBTs.

Ukraine reported on the use of NATO systems by the Ukrainian forces. “Everyone was satisfied with the report. And we invited any country, if they need it, to come and check where the weapons from their country are, which they have transferred or will transfer,” Ukraine’s Defense Minister added. Accountability and transparency are key elements of maintaining trust between the partners and the best tool to counter Russian propaganda to undermine support for Ukraine.

The US might transfer to Ukraine thousands of weapons, and more than a million rounds of ammunition captured while being delivered to the Iran-backed militants in Yemen.

The Polish Foreign Ministry has fired all employees who graduated from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Zbigniew Rau called the University “an investment in the activities of Russian imperialism” and “part of the Soviet soft power.” During the Soviet times, and no doubt now, international students were indoctrinated in the Russian worldview and, quite often, were hooked by the intelligence agencies as long-term assets.

Russia, relevant news

As of February 12, 191 companies completely left Russia, which is 6.2% of foreign business, the Kyiv School of Economics said.


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