CDS Daily brief (27.02.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Kyiv and several regions of Ukraine were attacked by drones on the night of February 27. In Khmelnytskyi, 2 rescuers died in a drone attack; three more were injured.
• Only 8% of Ukrainian children do not study at schools/preschools in the war conditions in Ukraine. 60% of children were witnesses or participants in certain war-related events.

Military:

• The enemy focus on conducting offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions;
• The enemy switches to fighting by “reinforced battalion” and “reinforced company” units.
• Mass desertion is noted among enemy troops.
• The enemy will try to break through to Lyman and capture Bakhmut, creating the prerequisites for taking the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

International:

• UN Secretary-General stated that Russia’s war has caused “the most massive violations of human rights we are living [through] today.
• The EU and Poland will launch a joint initiative to trace Ukrainian children who have been abducted and taken to Russia.
• The US Treasury Secretary made a surprise visit to Ukraine in a show of support. The US will provide Ukraine with another $1.2 billion in the coming weeks.
• China and Turkey help Russia to circumvent sanctions and export control restrictions on chips.
• While the EU has prolonged restrictive measures on Belarus for a year, Alexandr Lukashenko will travel to Beijing to solve his own economic problems and likely propose himself as a middleman for China’s support of Russia via Belarus.
• Vladimir Putin awarded Steven Seagal, the American actor, and Putin’s propagandist, with an Order of Friendship.

Humanitarian aspect:

Children: In the conditions of the war in Ukraine, the vast majority of Ukrainian children study in schools or attend preschools, and only 8% do not, according to the results of a survey conducted by the sociological group “Rating” among mothers of Ukrainian children aged 3 to 17, commissioned by the “Ukraine Children’s Action Project”.

According to the survey data, 42% of children study in schools/kindergartens online, 29% – in a mixed form (both online and on the premises), 26% – constantly attend educational institutions. Only 3% are home-schooled. The online form of education is most common in the front-line areas. In Kyiv, more than half are engaged both online and in a mixed form, and almost 40% attend educational institutions regularly.

Among the factors that can cause traumatic psychological conditions in children, mothers most often stated fear of loud sounds (especially the children under 9). Irritability and apathy are more common in children of middle and high school age. In addition, outbursts of anger and aggression are a relatively common problem among all children. Signs of anxiety, such as fear of the future, sleep problems, and problems with memory and concentration, were more often recorded in older children (16-17 years old), a reflection of traumatic events in games and creativity – among the youngest (3-9 years old).

60% of children were witnesses or participants in certain war-related events. Most often, they experienced separation from family and friends (28%), moving to another region of the country (25%), shelling and bombing (24%), and prolonged stay in a cold room (17%). Moved abroad – 11%, were under occupation – 8%, witnessed the death of relatives or loved ones – 6%, lost their home – 5%, experienced hunger and lack of water – 5%. 41% of the interviewed mothers of children noted that among their close relatives (husband, brother, sister, children, parents) there are those who serve in the war [military service].

19% of the surveyed mothers of children live outside the home [region] today, 20% left their regions of residence but have already returned. 61% did not change their place of residence.

Russian attacks

On the night of February 27, the Russian military attacked Ukraine using Shahed drones. According to the Ukrainian authorities, in total, Russia launched 14 drones, of which nine were shot down by the air defense over Kyiv and two more over other Ukrainian regions. Yuri Ignat, the spokesman for Air Forces Command, noted, that unlike previous attacks, Russia launched drones not from the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov but from the Bryansk region. Ukrainian Air Force believes Russian forces are launching Iranian Shahed drones to detect and deplete Ukrainian air defense.

• The head of the Khmelnytskyi regional administration, Sergei Hamaly, announced three drone strikes. Residential buildings were damaged as a result of the attack. One of the drone attack killed two rescuers, 21-year-old Vladislav Dvorak and 31-year-old Serhiy Sevruk. “Together with colleagues from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, they eliminated the consequences of the Russian UAV attack in Khmelnytskyi Oblast that night. And then the enemy fired again. Deliberately on our heroes without weapons,” said the minister of Internal Affairs, Ihor Klymenko. Three more rescuers were injured and hospitalized.
• In Zaporizhzhia, two hits on a civilian infrastructure facility were recorded. According to the Zaporizhzhia City Council secretary, there were no injured or killed civilians.
• The Kyiv city administration said that on the night of February 27, nine Shahids were shot down over the city. According to preliminary data, there were no casualties or hits on infrastructure facilities.

Occupied territories

Out of 180 political prisoners in Crimea, 18 people do not have status, showing Russia’s contempt for international humanitarian law by holding civilians for a long time without charges or trials,

stated Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets during a discussion on the Day of Resistance to the Occupation of Crimea and the City of Sevastopol. Lubinets also noted that many criminal cases are related to the persons’ religion; in particular, 100 cases concern Crimean Muslims and 17 -“Jehovah’s Witnesses.” In addition, Lubinets reminded that 36 political prisoners have serious health problems, and two have already died. “And we believe that these are direct results of the fact that the Russian Federation does not provide medical assistance,” he said.

Captured by the Russian military, the Zaporizhzhia NPP has not been operating since September last year. 4,500 Ukrainian personnel remained at the station, where 11,000 people worked in peacetime, said the president of Energoatom, Petro Kotin, on the air of Suspilne TV. He noted that the nuclear power plant “does not produce electricity, but consumes 100 megawatts constantly through one working line. The 5th and 6th power units are now in the so-called hot state. This is when the reactor is not working. The others are in a cold state, two of them are under repair.” The electricity the station consumes is necessary to meet the NPP’s own needs. Nuclear material constantly needs to be cooled, and pumps powered by the power system carry out cooling.

“The station is serviced by Ukrainian personnel, but Rosenergoatom intervened, but their specialists do not have a license to operate power units; they have no experience,” Kotin said. “There is constant pressure on people to sign contracts with Rosenergoatom. Out of 4,500 employees, about 2,500 have signed contracts with Rosenergoatom,” he added.

Energoatom said that the occupiers have also set up a repair base at the ZNPP where they repair their military equipment. “This facility is not intended for military equipment to be on it, but there is a lot of heavy military equipment there. They occupied the warehouses of the first and second power units. There are a lot of soldiers and weapons there,” said Kotin.

Operational situation

General conclusion:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions;
• The enemy changes tactics and switches to fighting by “reinforced battalion” and “reinforced company” units.

Battleline:

• The Defense Forces units repelled 81 enemy attacks in various directions.
• The enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Novoselivske, Ploschanka, Bilohorivka, Spirne, and Berestove of Luhansk Oblast, unsuccessfully attacked near Dubovo-Vasylivka, Yahidne, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Pivnichne, Kamianka, Avdiyivka, Vodyane, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Vuhledar of Donetsk Oblast.

Change in enemy disposition:

• Mass desertion is noted among enemy troops against the background of the military successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, Russian deputy commanders for political work are actively conducting outreach work to prevent desertion among Russian servicemen.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy will try to break through to Lyman and capture Bakhmut, creating the prerequisites for taking the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The enemy’s ships are scattered around the bases of Sevastopol, Feodosia, Kerch, Novorossiysk, and Novoozerne.
• The threat of a massive missile attack on the territory of Ukraine by sea-based cruise missile carriers remains. Using up to 20 Kalibr missiles from three underwater and five surface carriers is possible.
• One patrol boat is on duty in the Sea of Azov waters.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. At the Belbek airfield, there is an accumulation of more than 50 combat aircraft ready for takeoff, including MiG-31K, Su- 27, Su-30/34, and MiG-29 aircraft. A total of 30 sorties were made per day.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 27.02.23

Personnel – almost 148,690 people (+560)

Tanks – 3,385 (+4)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,621 (+6);

Artillery systems – 2,380 (0);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 475 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 247 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,248 (+6); Aircraft – 300 (+1);

Helicopters – 288 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,048 (+11); Intercepted cruise missiles – 873 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

International diplomatic aspect

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has caused “the most massive violations of human rights we are living [through] today,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said. According to the OHCHR, there’re 18,955 civilian casualties in the country: 7,199 killed and 11,756 injured. The Russians murdered 1,700 civilians in Bucha and the area, including about 700 in Bucha itself. As of February 15, 2023, the Russians murdered 487 children and wounded 954.

The European Commission and Poland will launch a joint initiative to trace Ukrainian children who have been abducted and taken to Russia. It will also be aimed to “ensure those responsible are brought to justice.” According to Ukraine’s ombudsman, 16,207 officially verified Ukrainian children are illegally held on Russian territory, but the number might be as high as 150,000.

Janet Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, made a surprise visit to Ukraine in a show of Washington’s commitment to continuing its economic support. So far, the US has provided Ukraine with $50 billion in security, economic and humanitarian assistance. Ukraine’s PM revealed that the state budget deficit now stands at $38 billion and that the US will provide Ukraine with another $1.2 billion of a whole $10 billion agreed package of aid. “We cannot allow Ukraine to lose the war for economic reasons when it has shown an ability to succeed on the battlefield. Ukraine’s military resistance depends on a government that can function effectively, as well as a stable economy that can help finance defense efforts over the long term. By fortifying the ‘home front,’ our economic assistance is helping make possible Ukraine’s stalwart frontline defense against Russia,” she said.

The WSJ believes China and Turkey help Russia to circumvent sanctions and export control restrictions on chips. Chinese export of integrated circuits to Russia more than doubled in a year (to $179 million from just $74 million in 2021). Meanwhile, Turkey has doubled its chip imports from China and boosted exports to Russia from $79,000 in 2021 to $3.2 million in 2022. Turkey’s total electrical machinery and electronics exports to Russia more than doubled in 2022 to $559 million. Turkey plays a double role of supporting Ukraine in some aspects of the war (closure of the Straits for the Russian warships, weapons delivery, and joint production, etc.) while not only ignoring Western sanctions imposed on Russia but benefiting from them (safe havens for Russian businesses, increased trade, particularly oil, etc.).

The EU has prolonged restrictive measures on Belarus for a year. The package includes a ban on travel to the EU, an asset freeze for listed persons – currently 195 individuals, including the so- called President Alexandr Lukashenko – and an asset freeze applicable to 34 entities. In addition, EU persons and entities are forbidden from making funds available to those listed directly or indirectly. Alexandr Lukashenko is set to travel to Beijing to solve his own economic problems and, highly likely, propose himself as a middleman for China’s support of Russia via Belarus. Lukashenko played such a role after the illegal annexation of Crimea, providing Putin with a sort of offshore services in trade between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the western countries and Russia.

Vladimir Putin awarded Steven Seagal, the American action-movie actor, with the Order of Friendship. Steven Seagal is Putin’s propaganda envoy who supports Russia’s war against Ukraine. The actor, who has held Russian citizenship since 2016, is also a member of Putin’s “A Just Russia — For Truth” party.

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