CDS Daily brief (28.02.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Russia continues shelling residential areas, damaging infrastructure, injuring and killing civilians; nine regions of Ukraine were attacked during the last day.
• Since the beginning of the war, 8,101 dead and 13,479 wounded civilians have been recorded in Ukraine, according to the updated information from the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.

Military:

• The enemy focuses on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions;
• In recent weeks, Russian troops intensified attacks in the Svatove, Kreminna, and Bilohorivka directions and concentrated military equipment and reserves in the occupied Luhansk Oblast;
• The pace of the enemy’s offensive in the Vuhledar area has decreased due to bad weather.
• The enemy has increased its forces at sea.
• On the temporarily occupied left bank of Kherson Oblast, Russian troops are redeploying closer to Crimea and pulling up a reserve of conscripts from the Chelyabinsk region of Russia.
• Possible operation situation developments: The enemy is trying to break the stability of the defense of the Ukrainian Joint Forces in the Bakhmut area; the loss of Yahidne and Zaliznyanske can trigger the Joint Forces to leave Bakhmut.

“Grain initiative”.

– The business community calls on the Black Sea Grain Initiative parties, the United Nations (UN) and Turkey, to contribute to its stable work, continuation and expansion Black Sea grain initiative and ensure free commercial shipping in the Black Sea region. Since October, the “grain initiative” has provided only 40% of possible exports due to Russia’s delay in inspecting vessels.

International:

• Putin has denounced Russia’s treaties within the framework of the Council of Europe, while the march against human rights and freedoms is steadily accelerating.
• Ukraine has already transited seven nuclear power generating units from Russia-made into US-made nuclear fuel. Energoatom plans to complete the transition of the remaining six units to Westinghouse fuel units by 2024.
• Putin signed a law that “suspended” the New START Treaty though there is no such an option in the Treaty. Meanwhile, the US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy believes it has been done for “rhetorical headlines” because Russia is “in no position for an unconstrained nuclear arms race.”
• The Ukrainian police have blocked eighteen social network channels and groups of the youth subculture movement “PVK Redan” and believe the Russian intelligence might use it in a destabilizing effort.

• Japan imposed new sanctions against Russia, including the Wagner Group.

Humanitarian aspect:

The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has updated statistics on civilian casualties in Ukraine. Since the beginning of the war, 8,101 dead and 13,479 wounded civilians have been recorded in the country.

Ukrainian IDPs and refugees:

Every third Ukrainian refugee in the EU feels part of the community in the host country. Still, the same number would like to return home, Politico reports with reference to the results of a survey by the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA). Almost half of the respondents answered that they feel depressed. Still, a significant percentage of refugees said they had felt optimistic about the future since arriving in their host country. At the same time, only a third of respondents have a paid job, and 79% said they face financial difficulties. Moreover, language is the main obstacle to getting a job; a quarter of refugees said they do not speak the language of the country they currently live in, and 41% said they do, but poorly.

Citizens of Ukraine make up more than 80% of all foreigners living in Poland. Almost a million Ukrainians have temporary protection status, and 1.4 million Ukrainians have residence permit in the Republic of Poland. This was reported to Ukrinform by the Office for Foreigners in Poland.

Russian attacks

The Russian army attacked nine regions of Ukraine during the last day, according to the consolidated information of the regional military administrations as of 9:00 am on Tuesday, February 28.

• The enemy carried out shellings of Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. There is reported destruction of residential and commercial infrastructure in Sumy Oblast.
• During the past day, aggressors fired at civilian infrastructure in the area of 15 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. There is the destruction of housing and infrastructure facilities.
• Nikopol, Marhanets, and Velykomykhalivska communities came under Russian fire yesterday afternoon in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Russian army carried out 5 attacks from heavy artillery, firing 40 shells. About 10 houses, farm buildings, several cars, and a gas pipeline were damaged. Two enemy UAVs were destroyed in the Oblast at night. By morning, the enemy hit Nikopol three times with heavy artillery. A hotel, three private houses, an outbuilding and a car were damaged. Broken power lines were reported.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, on Tuesday morning, a 60-year-old man was blown up by an anti- personnel mine in the Chuhuyiv district and was hospitalized. The enemy shelled towns and villages in Slobozhansk and Kupyansk direction. 8 residential buildings and farm buildings were damaged in the shelling of Vovchanski Khutory village. Kupyansk came under fire on February 28. According to the office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, a 63-year-old man died, and residential buildings, a kindergarten and a recreation park were damaged.

• Over the past day, one civilian was killed, and 9 were wounded in Donetsk Oblast. The Russian army shelled Shevchenko village, damaging 15 houses. Also, at night, the enemy launched a missile attack on Sviatohirsk, preliminary with the S-300. There is a direct hit to the fire department. One rescuer died, and four were injured. During the day, the enemy shelled the Kurakhiv community. One civilian was killed and one wounded. There is damage to residential infrastructure.
• In Mykolaiv Oblast, the enemy struck with anti-aircraft guns and other types of artillery on the water area of the Ochakiv community and the coast of the Kutsurub community. There are no casualties.
• In Kherson Oblast, more than 25 settlements on the right bank of the Dnipro were damaged by Russian troops’ artillery fire. On February 27, three people were injured. Another four people were killed, and five were injured due to the shelling of Kherson Oblast on February 28.

Operational situation

General conclusion:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions;
• In recent weeks, Russian troops have been intensifying attacks in the Svatove, Kreminna, and Bilohorivka directions and concentrating military equipment and reserves in the occupied Luhansk Oblast;
• The pace of the enemy’s offensive in the Vuhledar area has generally decreased over the past four days due to bad weather.

Battleline:

• The Defense Forces units repelled 60 enemy attacks in different directions.
• The enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in Masyutivka, Stelmakhivka, Makiyivka, Ploschanka, Kreminna, Dibrova, and Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast, Vasyukivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Berkhivka, Yahidne, Bakhmut, Kamianka, Krasnohorivka, and Maryinka in Donetsk Oblast.
• The Russian forces pushed back the Defense Forces to the west of the P66 highway near Pishchane and Chervonopopivka. The enemy’s use of new tactics by assault units is noted.
• The units of the “Wagner” PMC captured Yahidne, advanced south of the Berkhiv reservoir and are moving in the direction of Bohdanivka.

Change in enemy disposition: not detected.

Escalation indicators: the build-up of the Russian grouping on the Luhansk section of the front, the increase in the intensity of hostilities, and the widespread use of armored vehicles are noted.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy is trying to break the stability of the defense of the Ukrainian Joint Forces in the Bakhmut area;

• The loss of Yahidne and Zaliznyanske can trigger the Joint Forces to leave Bakhmut.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The enemy has increased its forces and currently has 12 surface ships and two submarines at sea, which are performing tasks south of the Crimean peninsula. Up to 8 Kalibr missiles are on board submarines. Yesterday, a 3.4-magnitude earthquake occurred in the submarine deployment area.
• The enemy’s ships are scattered around the bases of Sevastopol, Feodosia, Kerch, Novorossiysk, and Novoozerne.
• One patrol boat is on duty in the waters of the Sea of Azov.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. A total of 25 sorties were made during the day. One flight of military transport aircraft of the Russian Air Force was made to Saki and Belbek airfields to deliver personnel. From the Sea of Azov, enemy aircraft launched missile strikes on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia region.
• The intensity of the movement of military equipment by road and rail transport from Crimea to the Kherson region remains stable. From the Crimean side, railway freight trains arrive on the territory of the Kherson region, unloading military equipment and ammunition at the “Kalanchak”, “Brylivka”, and “Novooleksiyivka” stations.
• On the temporarily occupied left bank of Kherson Oblast, Russian troops are redeploying closer to Crimea and pulling up a reserve of conscripts from the Chelyabinsk region of Russia.
• “Grain initiative”. The business community, united by the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, the European Business Association, and the Association “Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business”, calls on the parties of the Black Sea Grain Initiative – the United Nations (UN) and Turkey – to contribute to its stable work, continuation and expansion Black Sea grain initiative, and ensure free commercial shipping in the Black Sea region.
• Russian inspectors of the Joint Coordination Center (JCC) are artificially blocking the full- fledged work of the Initiative and disrupting free navigation in the Black Sea. In particular, the Russian side is systematically delaying the inspection of vessels heading through the Bosphorus to/from Ukrainian ports. Since October, the “grain initiative” has provided only 40% of possible exports due to Russia’s delay in inspecting vessels.
• Currently, 140 vessels are waiting for inspection by the JCC in the Bosphorus, and Ukrainian ports are operating at only 30% of their capacity. At the same time, the movement of Russian ships in the Black Sea is not limited to regular inspections, while the volume of cargo transported through the Azov and Black Seas is about 250 million tons in 2022. Thus, business is worried about the situation that has developed in recent months with delays in the operation of grain corridors through the Black Sea.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 28.02.23

Personnel – almost 149,240 people (+550)

Tanks – 3,388 (+3)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,630 (+9);

Artillery systems – 2,383 (+3);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 478 (+3); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 247 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,252 (+4); Aircraft – 300 (0);

Helicopters – 288 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,051 (+3); Intercepted cruise missiles – 873 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

UNITED24 presented a site where you can “walk” through the cities of Ukraine affected by Russian attacks, including Kyiv, Irpin, Kharkiv, Izyum, Chernihiv and Sumy. Unlike Google Street View, this site shows what Ukrainian cities look like after the Russian invasion. There you can also donate for reconstruction.

The National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption included the Metro Cash & Carry company in the list of international sponsors of the war due to the decision of the company’s management to continue operating in Russia. “In addition to retail business, the interests of the company’s management are closely related to the strategic sectors of the Russian economy: the oil and gas and banking sectors. And this directly affects the support of the Russian military machine,” the Agency explains.

International diplomatic aspect

Vladimir Putin signed a law denouncing Russia’s treaties within the framework of the Council of Europe, including the Statute of the major human rights organization, the Convention on the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms, the European Convention on the Prevention of Terrorism, the European Charter of Local Self-Government, and the Social Charter. In March 2022, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe decided to expel Russia from the organization. Russia announced that it would not obey any rulings of the European Court of Human Rights after 15 March 2022. Meanwhile, the head of the so-called Human Rights Council under the President of the Russian Federation said that it is necessary to give a legal definition for Russophobia (any criticism of the Russian government, including spreading information about crimes committed by the Russian government). The so-called Parliament approved in the first reading a bill on the mitigation of punishment for police officers for intentional crimes, claiming that the clause on “aggravating circumstances” is “discriminatory” because it applies only to Ministry of Internal Affairs employees. A prison ward imposed another penalty on Alexei Navalny for the rolled-up sleeves. A Moscow district court fined the Wikimedia Foundation $26,700 due to Wikipedia’s refusal to remove articles about Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Energoatom, a Ukrainian state enterprise operating all four nuclear power plants in Ukraine, stated that seven power-generating units are powered by nuclear fuel produced by the American Westinghouse Electric Sweden AB. The joint US-Ukraine Nuclear Fuel Qualification Project was launched in 2000 to diversify (break Russia’s monopoly) the supply of nuclear fuel for Ukraine’s

Soviet-design VVER-IOOO civilian nuclear power reactors. The company plans to shift all fifteen power-generating units from Russian to American fuel by 2024.

Vladimir Putin signed a law that “suspended” the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. However, Article XIV of the New START Treaty provides the sides with the right to “withdraw from this Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events related to the subject matter of this Treaty have jeopardized its supreme interests.” The Treaty doesn’t include any provision about the possibility of its “suspension”; therefore, the Kremlin is trying to threaten the US and make a great bargain rather is serious about its intentions to play an arms race game. Sergey Lavrov assured of Moscow’s intention to continue to respect the caps on set in the Treaty and repeated again his boss’s suspension of the Treaty is “reversible.” “Frankly, Russia is in no position for an unconstrained nuclear arms race. They do not have the money, especially given the strain on their military from the war, sanctions, and export controls. So, you know, I think this was a way for him to generate some rhetorical headlines. But I think as a practical matter, it has not changed the situation,” Colin Kahl, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, testified to the House Armed Services Committee hearing.

The Ukrainian police have blocked eighteen social network channels and groups of the youth subculture movement “PVK Redan.” The police reached out to about seven hundred persons, mostly minors, who might be connected to the movement. Its origins might be traced to the popular Japanese teen anime Hunter x Hunter, featuring the Redan gang. Initially organized in Russia, the movement arranges group street fighting. On 24-25 February, there were actions undertaken by the movement in Russia and two days later in Ukraine. The police believe that there might be a destabilization operation being conducted in Ukraine by Russian intelligence.

Japan imposed a new package of sanctions against 143 individuals and organizations linked to Russia, including the Wagner Group.

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