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CDS Daily brief (02.03.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

  • Over the past day, the Russian forces attacked 10 Oblasts of Ukraine, killing and injuring civilians in 4 Oblast;
  • More than 1,200 local council members from key Ukrainian parties went to serve in the army to fight against the Russian troops;
  • 67% of Ukrainians believe that Russia is exhausting its resources, and it is realistic for Ukraine and its partners to win in the not-too-distant future;
  • 38 exchanges of prisoners have been carried out up to date, leading to the release of 1,863 people, including 1,756 military servicemen and 135 civilians;
  • 327,180 explosive devices, including 2,187 avia bombs, have been neutralized on the territory of Ukraine;
  • Ukraine is working on updating its strategy to liberate Crimea.

Military:

  • The Russian military is concentrated on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions;
  • The Russian command prepares to carry out a local offensive in the Novopavlivka and Orihiv directions;
  • The Russian military is making efforts to surround Bakhmut.
  • The number of Russian attacks more than doubled during the day;
  • The Russian military completes the formation of strike groups in the Novopavlivka and Orihiv directions.
  • Change in enemy disposition: the enemy deployed forces, particularly of territorial troops, in Novopavlivka and Orihiv directions.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The Russian forces are trying to break the sturdy defense of the Joint Forces in the Bakhmut area;
  • The Russian offensive in the Novopavlivka direction should be expected on March 4-5. The enemy will also try to intensify actions in Mala Tokmachka, Mali Shcherbaky and Stepove areas in the Orihiv direction to bind the Ukrainian Defense Forces and make it impossible for them to maneuver to the attacked sections in the Vuhledar area;
  • During the first week of March, massive use of attack UAVs by the enemy should be expected. The priority targets should be control points, ammunition storage places, artillery, MRLS, anti-aircraft defense equipment, armored vehicles, primarily “western- style equipment”.
  • Sea: The Russian Federation will likely switch to new tactics and abandon massive missile attacks because it has a small stockpile of missiles.

International:

  • Antony Blinken talked briefly to Sergey Lavrov for the first time since the last G-20 ministerial. The US top diplomat made it clear to his Russian counterpart that the US will be backing Ukraine until the war ends, Russia should return to implementing the New START, and the Kremlin should release Paul Whelan, a political hostage.
  • Ned Price ruled out pulling back the US support for Ukraine in return for the Kremlin’s promise of returning to the New START.
  • G-20 foreign ministers disagreed on Ukraine, while the host country carried on its non- alignment (in this case, a pro-Russian) stance. Meanwhile, Russian and Chinese diplomats showed unity on Ukraine and their “unanimous rejection of “attempts to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries.”
  • Ukraine’s initial success on the battlefield “removed the sense of urgency” that motivated Chancellor Scholz to pronounce his historic Zeitenwende speech. It might explain long talks and slow delays of weapons to Ukraine, as well as the process of boosting Bundeswehr’s war-fighting capabilities.
  • Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, a friend of Vladimir Putin and his lobbyist in Europe, will not be penalized by his party’s arbitration commission.
Humanitarian aspect:

Since the launch of the Coordinating Headquarters for the treatment of prisoners of war, 38 exchanges of prisoners have been carried out, leading to the release of 1,863 people, including 1,756 military servicemen and 135 civilians. In addition, the bodies of 1,409 defenders have been returned to the territory controlled by Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale war.

A new burial site with three bodies of Ukrainian civilians killed by the Russian military was found in Borodyanka of the Bucha district, Kyiv Oblast. A man who had buried them returned from evacuation and notified the police. To date, 1,373 bodies of Ukrainian citizens killed in Kyiv Oblast have been found. Of these bodies, more than 700 were killed with small arms, Head of Kyiv Police Andriy Nebytov said.

Russian attacks

Russian forces again attacked 10 oblasts of Ukraine during the past day. There were civilian victims in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and injured civilians in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts.

  • As a result of the Russian night attack on a 5-story residential building in Zaporizhzhia, 2 people died, and rescuers recovered 11 people from the rubble; 10 people are considered missing. The building was almost completely destroyed.
  • Russian aircraft hit residential areas of Donetsk Oblast with missiles, 10 towns and villages were under Russian fire. 1 person died, and 5 were injured.
  • Poltava Oblast: yesterday evening, the Russian forces launched a rocket attack on civilian and critical infrastructure in the Kremenchuk district; there were no casualties.
  • Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts in the north were attacked with artillery. 4 hits were recorded in Chernihiv and 31 in Sumy Oblast. No victims were reported. Civilian infrastructure, including power lines in the village of Stetskivka was damaged.
  • In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Nikopol and the Marhanets community were shelled. No victims were reported.
  • In Kharkiv Oblast, the Russian forces attacked residential areas with artillery and UAVs. A 52-year-old man and a 13-year-old boy were injured in Chuhuyiv.
  • In total, 11 people were injured in Kherson Oblast during the day due to the extensive shelling by the Russian forces. According to preliminary data, on March 2, the Russian army used drones to attack civilians who stood in line to get humanitarian aid near a school in the Beryslav district. As a result, 9 civilians were injured, including a minor, Kherson Oblast Military Administration reported.
Mine danger

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the State Emergency Service has neutralized 327,180 explosive devices on the territory of Ukraine, including 2,187 avia bombs, the Ministry of Internal Affairs press service reported.

On the night of March 1, in the forest near Spivakivka village, Kharkiv Oblast, a car hit a Russian mine, killing 4 men, the Main Directorate of the State Emergency Service in the Kharkiv Oblast reported.

Occupied territories

Russian FSB officers arrived in some villages of the occupied part of Kherson Oblast. Mass searches of residential properties and telephone inspections are carried out. The occupiers are specifically interested in the people whose relatives left for the unoccupied part of Ukraine, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported.

Operational situation General conclusion:
  • The main efforts of the Russian military are concentrated on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions;
  • The Russian command prepares to carry out a local offensive in the Novopavlivka and Orihiv directions;
  • The Russian military is making efforts to surround Bakhmut.
Battleline:
  • Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 170 Russian attacks in different directions;
  • The Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions near Kreminna and Bilohorivka of Luhansk Oblast, Spirne, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Kamianka, Pivdenne, Vodyane, Nevelske and Maryinka of Donetsk Oblast.
  • An uninterrupted Russian assault on the village of Khromove, a section of the T0504 highway, has gone on for 16 hours. TOS-1 and about 50 airstrikes by the Russian air and space forces repeatedly hit the positions of the Joint Forces of Ukraine on the outskirts of Bakhmut during the last two days. This indicates the partial suppression of Ukrainian air defense in this area.
  • Units of the Ukrainian Joint Forces firmly hold their positions in the Klishchiivka area and slow down the Russian advance in the direction of Ivanivske and the southern outskirts of Bakhmut:
    • units of the 4th separate tank brigade counterattacked in the direction of Blahodatne, Krasna Hora, and Berkhivka,
  • the 17th separate tank brigade counterattacked in the direction of Berkhivka from Blahodatne,
    • the 24th separate mechanized brigade – in the direction of Yahidne,
    • the 5th separate assault brigade – in the Ivanivske area,
    • the 80th separate airborne assault brigade – on the southern outskirts of Bakhmut.
Change in enemy disposition:
  • The Russian troops command finishes regrouping its forces and means in the Novopavlivka direction, where the formations and military units of the 3rd army corps of the Western Military District, transferred from the Republic of Belarus, are concentrated. The 11th and 295th divisions of the Russian territorial troops (TT) also move in the same direction; the 89th tank regiment of the 11th division of TT and the 1307th motorized rifle regiment of the 295th division of TT have already arrived in the Vuhledar area. Earlier, up to two assault companies of the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade and 14th separate SOF brigade arrived here.
  • In the Kupyansk direction, the Russian forces moved forward a group of operators of the Lancet strike drones from the 3rd separate SOF brigade.
  • In the city of Mariupol, a center for restoring unit combat capability was opened at the base of the 155th separate marines brigade. A new air assault battalion numbering about 160 people was formed.
  • The Russian forces concentrated 11 brigades, 12 regiments, in particular 6 of the TT, 5 separate battalions, in particular 2 of the TT, and two BARS detachments in the Novopavlivka direction. 4 brigades, 15 regiments, in particular 7 of the TT, 8 separate battalions, in particular, one of the TT and 1 of mobilization reserve, and 10 BARS detachments are concentrated in the Orihiv direction. The grouping’s reserve is a TT regiment.
  • At the “Postoyalye Dvory” and “Pogonovo” ranges (Voronezh and Kursk Oblasts, respectively), the 20th and 6th army command deployed field infrastructure with the capability of housing up to 10,000 servicemen, which indicates the preparation of reserves for these units. Today, field camps are occupied at up to 50%.
Escalation indicators:
  • The number of Russian attacks more than doubled during the day;
  • The Russian military completes the formation of strike groups in the Novopavlivka and Orihiv directions;
  • Preparation for the massive use of Lancet attack UAVs in the Kupyansk direction.
Possible operation situation developments:
  • The Russian forces are trying to break the sturdy defense of the Joint Forces in the Bakhmut area;
  • The resumption of the Russian offensive in the Novopavlivka direction should be expected on March 4-5. At the same time, the enemy will try to intensify its actions in the area of Mala Tokmachka, Mali Shcherbaky and Stepove in the Orihiv direction in order to bind the Ukrainian Defense Forces and make it impossible for them to maneuver to the attacked sections in the Vuhledar area;
  • During the first week of March, massive use of attack UAVs by the enemy should be expected. The priority targets should be control points, ammunition storage places, artillery, MRLS, anti-aircraft defense equipment, armored vehicles, primarily “western- style equipment”.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
  • The enemy has built up its forces at sea, with 13 surface ships and two submarines performing tasks south of the Crimean Peninsula. Up to 24 Kalibr missiles are on board two surface ships and two submarines. The Russian Federation is likely to switch to new tactics of using missile weapons and abandon massive missile attacks because it has a small stockpile of missiles.
  • Russian ships are scattered at the bases of Sevastopol, Feodosia, Kerch, Novorossiysk and Novoozerne.
  • On the night of March 2, 2023, there was a massive UAV attack on military facilities in northern Crimea: Bakhchisaray, Yalta, and Gurzuf. There are reports of loud explosions and the operation of air defense systems.
  • One patrol boat was on duty in the waters of the Sea of Azov.
  • Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. During the day, 28 sorties were made.
  • “The Grain initiative”. The US is convinced that its necessary to extend the agreement on the safe export of Ukrainian food through the Black Sea and expand its capacity. State Department spokesman Ned Price said this at a briefing on March 1; the recording was published on the department’s website. According to him, the current agreement has returned stable prices to the world market of agricultural products and significantly reduced the deficit. The representative of the US State Department is sure that the G20 countries need to demand from Russia not only the preservation of the conditions of the grain corridor but also new export opportunities from the region. According to him, the recovery of Ukrainian exports “fed the world”, and people in many countries “simply were able to survive”.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.03.23

Personnel – almost 150,605 people (+715)

Tanks – 3,397 (+2)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,658 (+20);

Artillery systems – 2,398 (+5);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 480 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 247 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,264 (+7); Aircraft – 300 (0);

Helicopters – 288 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,058 (+3);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 873 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

NSDC Secretary Oleksiy Danilov tweeted, “The strategy of the de-occupation of Crimea: it is time for a new edition. The sequence of means of de-occupation – political-diplomatic, military, economic, etc. – requires a change of priorities.” He did not clarify, however, what kind of change he had in mind. The current strategy prioritizes political and diplomatic means.

More than 1,200 local council members from key Ukrainian parties went to serve in the army to fight against the Russian troops, the public movement “CHESNO” reported. “Servant of the people” and “European Solidarity” parties have the most significant number of members who serve in the army – 434 (14,4%) and 391 (16,5%), respectively. The “Svoboda” party has the biggest percentage of its local council members, 22,3%, who serve in the army.

Responding to the statement of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that Russia is ready for “serious negotiations”, Advisor to the head of the Office of the Ukrainian President Mykhailo Podolyak said that Lavrov should finally assess the “new realities on the battlefield”, the one-year duration of the “three-day war” and stop promoting negotiations on his own terms. “The conditions are clear: withdraw troops from foreign territory, restore the 1991 border, start “serious negotiations.”

The majority of Ukrainians – 67% – believe Russia is exhausting its resources, and it is realistic for Ukraine together with its partners, to win in the not-too-distant future. 22% believe that Russia has significant resources in reserve, leading to a long, exhausting confrontation with an uncertain end. Another 11% were undecided, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found out.

The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine plans to clear at least 30-40% of mined agricultural lands in Mykolaiv, Kherson and Kharkiv Oblasts by mid-May, Taras Vysotskyi, First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine said.

International diplomatic aspect

The US Secretary of State spoke briefly with the Russian Foreign Minister at the G-20 conference in New Delhi. In a ten-minute encounter, Blinken and Lavrov discussed Ukraine and the New START Treaty. Blinken made it clear that the US would continue supporting Ukraine till the end of the war and that Russia should “reverse its irresponsible decision and return to implementing the New START.” “I also raised the wrongful detention of Paul Whelan as I have on many previous occasions. The United States has put forward a serious proposal. Moscow should accept it. We’re determined to bring Paul and every other American citizen who is unjustly detained around the world home. We won’t rest until we do,” the US Secretary of State said after the meeting.

The State Department spokesperson ruled out pulling back the US support for Ukraine in return for the Kremlin’s promise of returning to the New START nuclear control treaty. “Russia’s willingness to promote instability and use irresponsible nuclear rhetoric endangers every nation

on this planet. Russia’s purported suspension of new START will, at the same time, not stop the United States from continuing to support Ukraine,” Ned Price said. The day before, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov amplified the message after his boss assured that Russia has no intentions to go beyond the caps set up by the treaty and is “open” to the American proposals. Ryabkov threatened that “the US and NATO policy of fueling the conflict in Ukraine” and their” increasing involvement in the military confrontation is fraught with a direct military clash of nuclear powers with catastrophic consequences.”

“There were issues, and they were concerned about the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We got a joint document built on the bulk of the problems, but various parties held differing opinions on several topics,” Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said after the G-20 meeting. The world’s largest democracy didn’t invest its efforts in reflecting in a document one of the major conflicts going on. Though a majority of the international community voted in support of the three most important UN General Assembly resolutions on Ukraine (on the territorial integrity in 2014; aggression against Ukraine in 2022; and a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine in 2023), India each and every time abstained. So did China, thus signaling the opposition of a smaller group of countries with huge population sizes. Meanwhile, Russian and Chinese foreign ministers showed a “high degree of closeness and concurrence of positions” on the situation in Ukraine and “unanimously rejected” “attempts to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries.” The latter is laughable, for Russia believes in its inherited “right” to interfere in the affairs of its former colonies and satellites.

“When Mr. Scholz and his closest allies huddled in his office to write the Zeitenwende speech, they assumed that Russia would quickly overrun Ukraine, reaching the NATO borders and directly threatening the security of Germany, according to people present at the meeting,” the FT wrote. However, Bojan Pancevski believes, based on multiple officials, that “Ukraine’s stiff resistance and a string of Russian military setbacks have since removed the sense of urgency.” It is evidenced by how assistance to Ukraine was and is being discussed and delivered later that it could have been done in the case of true Zeitenwende mode. The same applies to Germany’s defense as well, despite a promise to boost it with a €100 billion package. “The Bundeswehr has tremendous deficits, and the Zeitenwende hasn’t even started in it,” Roderich Kiesewetter, foreign policy spokesman for the Christian Democratic Union, said. A punch back from Marie-Agnes Strack- Zimmermann, head of the Bundestag defense committee, who blamed the CDU for doing “nothing at all” to modernize the army for the sixteen years in power, hasn’t changed the substance. The Bundeswehr said that €30 billion has already been earmarked for significant purchases, but it will take time to feel the change because, for example, the first eight F-35s will be delivered in 2026.

Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, a friend of Vladimir Putin’s and his chief lobbyist in Europe, will not be penalized, the Social Democratic Party’s arbitration commission ruled. Gerhard Schröder didn’t criticize Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch a full-fledged invasion and refused to give up his lucrative job on the boards of two Kremlin-controlled energy companies. The entire staff at his parliamentary office resigned in protest in April. The German politicians

have been calling to remove his state privileges, including his parliamentary office, which costs the German taxpayers €490,000 annually.

Russia, relevant news

Against the background of foreign sanctions and other restrictions, export revenue of Russian software companies dropped by 12-17%, Russoft calculated. Software developers try to work with relatively friendly regions, such as Latin America and Southeast Asia. But in parallel, companies try to keep supplies to Western partners through formally independent third parties founded by Russian software developers abroad, Russian business publication Kommersant writes.


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