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CDS Daily brief (04.03.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

  • Over the past day, the Russian forces attacked 8 Oblasts of Ukraine, killing and injuring civilians;

Military:

  • The enemy concentrates on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions;
  • In the Vuhledar area, due to painful failures, the enemy shifted its efforts to the east of the city;
  • The Kharkiv Oblast Military Civilian administration announced the partial evacuation of the local population from Kupyansk;
  • The enemy pays significant attention to  its logistics/communication capacity in  the Crimean direction; additional crossings are built in the area of Brylivka and Ridne villages;
  • The enemy creates an anti-aircraft defense in the Kakhovka area;
  • As of the morning of March 4, the enemy had at least 52 Kh-101/Kh-555, Kh-22, 3m14k/3m14t cruise missiles in a ready state.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy will try to disrupt the stability of the defense of the Ukrainian Joint Forces in the area of Bakhmut and push them out of the city;
  • The intensity of fighting will continue in Kreminna and Vuhledar areas,
  • In the short term, we should expect an increase in the intensity of hostilities in the Kupyansk direction;
  • In the Tavria direction, the enemy continues preparations for a defensive operation;
  • The enemy is preparing for a massive missile attack on the infrastructure of Ukraine.

International:

  • Ukraine advocated the establishment of a special tribunal for crimes of aggression at the “United for Justice Conference” in Lviv. U.S. Attorney General made a surprise visit to participate in the event.
  • Rheinmetall is in talks with Kyiv on constructing a plant in Ukraine that will produce 400 Panther MBTs annually.
  • Joe Biden and Olaf Scholtz praised each other for leadership and lockstep work in supplying critical security assistance to Ukraine.
  • The Dutch prosecutor’s office investigates 45 criminal cases of import-export violations related to circumventing sanctions against Russia.
  • The majority of Russians support their country’s war against Ukraine and reject the possible return of the occupied territories of Eastern and Southern Ukraine to Ukraine. A lot of Russians believe in bizarre justifications for the war, preventing an “attack” on Russia, fighting “Nazis and fascists,” and mitigating “biological and nuclear” threats alike.
Humanitarian aspect:

Russian attacks

The Russian army carried out attacks on eight regions of Ukraine during the past day. Some of the consequences of enemy attacks:

  • The Russian occupiers shelled the territory of the Kherson Oblast 69 times. 1 killed and 10 wounded civilians were reported. In Kherson, apartment buildings and a utility company were damaged.
  • On March 3, enemy shelling killed 2 civilians in Donetsk Oblast. A medical facility was damaged in Kamyshivka. 8 houses were damaged in Ocheretynska hromada. One wounded was reported in Chasiv Yar. 5 houses were damaged in the Toretsk community. 1 person was injured in the Zvanivka community, 6 houses were damaged in Pereizny and 3 in Zvanivka.
  • Border villages of Kharkiv, Kupyansk (1 wounded reported) and Chuhuyiv districts of Kharkiv Oblast were under fire during the past day. In Kupyansk, at least 9 residential buildings were damaged, farm buildings, garages, and a health care facility were destroyed.
  • At night, the Marhanets community in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast came under artillery fire. Nikopol was shelled in the morning. A private enterprise, 4 houses, and a broken power line were damaged in the city. On March 4, two people were killed due to shelling by Russian troops in the Nikopol district.
  • Yesterday, law enforcement officers received 18 reports about the destruction of houses and infrastructure facilities in the Polohy and Vasylivka districts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to shelling.

The number of people killed as a result of a rocket attack that destroyed part of a residential building in Zaporizhzhia on the night of March 2 has increased to 11 people. Among the killed is an 8-month-old child. The girl died together with her family.

Justice

Bringing to justice those guilty of sexual violence in the context of Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine is a moral and legal obligation, a prerequisite for effective justice in relation to the crimes committed by the Russian occupiers, said Pramila Patten, the UN special representative on sexual violence in conflict, at the United for Justice international conference, held in Lviv. She noted that from the first days of Russian aggression, the number of reports of sexual violence has increased critically. The Human Rights Commission has documented thousands of such crimes against men, women and even children, including stripping, rape, beatings, coercion into sexual acts, and more. In May of 2022, she visited Kyiv and signed a cooperation agreement with the Ukrainian government, which provides for supporting the efforts of national law enforcement agencies to respond to sexual crimes in conflict situations, including their investigation, punishment of criminals and provision of assistance and protection to victims of violence.

At the same Conference, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal named the four elements that will make up the mechanism of confiscation of Russian assets. “The international compensation mechanism will have four elements: an international register of losses; a compensation commission that will consider applications for compensation for losses; a compensation fund

from which compensation will be issued; a mechanism for implementing decisions made by the Compensation Commission.” He added that the special compensatory mechanism for the payment of reparations would be based on an international treaty. Ukraine is developing it together with partner states.

Energy

Energoatom has published an infographic illustrating the strikes of the occupiers on Ukrainian electric power facilities. The most attacks were in October (82), and the least in August (3).

Operational situation General conclusion:
  • The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions;
  • In the Vuhledar area, due to painful failures, the enemy shifted the efforts to the east of the city, in the direction of the South Donbas coal mine;
  • The Kharkiv Oblast Military Civilian administration announced the partial evacuation of the local population from Kupyansk;
  • The enemy pays significant attention to  its logistics/communication capacity in  the Crimean direction; additional crossings are built in the area of Brylivka and Ridne villages;
  • The enemy creates an anti-aircraft defense in the Kakhovka area;
  • As of the morning of March 4, the enemy has at least 52 Kh-101/Kh-555, Kh-22, 3m14k/3m14t cruise missiles in an equipped state.
Battleline:
  • Units of the Defense Forces repelled 150 enemy attacks in various directions.
  • The enemy unsuccessfully conducted offensive actions in the areas of Kreminna and Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast; Spirne, Vesele, Vasyukivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Novokalynove, Krasnohorivka, Kamianka, Avdiivka, Pivnichne, Vodyane, Nevelske, Maryinka and Pobieda in Donetsk Oblast.
  • Defense Forces control Dibrova and the southern outskirts of Kreminna.
  • In Bakhmut, Defense Forces units, in particular the 93rd separate mechanized brigade, completed their withdrawal to the right bank of the Bakhmutka River and took up defensive positions there.
  • Units of the 24th separate mechanized brigade, 3rd separate assault brigade, 80th separate airborne assault brigade, and the “Georgian Legion” are holding their positions in Khromove, Ivanivske, south of Korsunsky Street in the city of Bakhmut and in the Klishchiivka area. Both highways, T0504 and T0506, remain open, although the enemy has fire access in some sections. The actions of the garrison are supported by the 26th, 40th and 43rd separate artillery brigades.
  • The enemy tried to attack Toretsk from its positions in Mayorske and Ozeryanivka but was defeated.
  • In the Avdiivka area, the 53rd separate mechanized brigade repelled an enemy attack, inflicting significant losses on the separatist formation, staffed mainly by those mobilized from Mordovia, Mari El and Irkutsk.
Change in enemy disposition:

The Russian grouping of troops “Dnepr” completed the formation of an operational structure.

In the first echelon along the line Rybalche – Gola Prystan – Oleshki – along the left bank of the Dnipro – Kakhovka – Cayiry – Velyka Lepetikha took up the defense:

  • the 49th Army, 22nd Army Corps, detachments of the Russian Airborne Forces, including the 56th, 108th, and 247th Air assault regiments of the 7th Air assault division with the support of the 1141st artillery regiment, 34th, 205th separate mechanized rifle brigades,
  • consolidated tactical group of the 7th military base,
  • 61st and 810th separate marines brigades, 126th separate coastal defense brigade, volunteer separate mechanized rifle brigade “Don” (Rostov region),
  • 359th, 387th, 1153rd and 1233rd separate mechanized rifle regiments of Territorial Forces.

The group has 15,500 troops, 60 tanks, 246 BBMs, 72 guns, 32 MLRS. It is characterized by incomplete manning but a powerful artillery component. It has a high intensity of work on engineering support, primarily fortification equipment for positions and installing mine-explosive barriers.

In the second echelon along the line Bekhtera – Tavriyske – Hladkivka – Velyki Kopany – Kalynivka

  • Zeleny Pid, took up the defense:
    • the 404th, 1044th, 1253rd, 1445th, 1199th separate mechanized rifle  regiments of Territorial Forces
    • the 80th separate mechanized rifle brigade,
    • supported by the 8th artillery regiment of the 22nd Army Corps.

The group has up to 10,500 personnel, 30 tanks, 118 BBMs, up to 40 guns and 14 MLRS. It is characterized by the staffing with mobilization conscripts with a low level of military skills, simulation of the process of their training for combat operations, and high intensity of engineering equipment of positions with a deficient level of mechanization of earthworks.

The operational reserve of the “Dnepr” grouping is the 214th tank regiment of Territorial Forces, which is 55-60% equipped with tanks, the formation of the regiment’s motorized rifle battalion is not completed.

Escalation indicators:
  • The concentration in the east of Kupyansk of the Russian grouping of the 2nd, 18th motorized rifle divisions and 27th separate marines brigades;
    • As of the morning of 04.03, the enemy keeps:
      • 4 Tu-95ms strategic bombers, 24 KRPB Kh-101/Kh-555 at “Olenya” airfield (Murmansk region);
      • 3 Tu-22m3 bombers, 4 KRPB Kh-22 at the airfield “Pryvolzhsky” (Astrakhan region),
      • 1 bomber Tu-22m3, 1 KRPB Kh-22 at the airfield “Diagilevo” (Ryazan region),
      • 3 bombers Tu-22m3, 4 KRPB Kh-22 at “Shaykovka” airfield (Kalyuga region),
  • 3 Tu-22m3 bombers, 3 KRPB Kh-22 at “Soltsy” airfield (Novgorod region).
Possible operation situation developments:
  • The enemy will try to disrupt the stability of the defense of the Ukrainian Joint Forces in the area of Bakhmut and push them out of the city;
    • The intensity of fighting will continue in Kreminna and Vuhledar areas,
    • In the short term, we should expect an increase in the intensity of hostilities in the Kupyansk direction;
    • In the Tavria direction, the enemy continues preparations for a defensive operation;
    • The enemy is preparing for a massive missile attack on the infrastructure of Ukraine.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
  • The enemy has increased its forces at sea and has 16 surface ships, two submarines performing tasks south of the Crimean peninsula. On board one frigate and two submarines – up to 16 Kalibr missiles.
    • The enemy’s ships are scattered around the bases of Sevastopol, Feodosia, Kerch, Novorossiysk, and Novoozerne.
    • One patrol boat is on duty in the waters of the Sea of Azov.
    • Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Control of the air situation and command of the enemy’s operational-tactical aviation in the southeastern part of Ukraine was carried out by two A-50U AEW aircraft, one of which was on duty over the waters of the Sea of Azov.
    • 10 fighter, bomber, and anti-submarine aircraft were involved in the control of the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, namely: Su-27/30 (Belbek), Su-30SM (Saki), Be-12 (Saki), MiG-29K (Saki). More than 40 sorties were made in total.
    • Also, with the aim of increasing the control system in the Crimean operational area, the Il-22 aircraft flew to the Hvardiyske airfield.
    • The enemy has built up a surveillance system for video monitoring of the surface situation in the Kakhovsk Reservoir (similar to the system previously created on the Kinburn spit). The enemy continues shelling the positions of Ukrainian units and civilian objects in Kherson Oblast and attempts to establish control over the islands at the mouth of the Dnipro River.
“Grain initiative”.
  • Over the past week, 20 ships left Ukrainian ports with more than half a million tons of grain and other food products on board as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
    • During the meeting of the foreign ministers of the Russian Federation and Turkey, the Russian side put forward a condition for the extension of the grain initiative. They insisted that the continuation of the “package” agreement on grain is possible only when the interests of Russian producers of agricultural products and fertilizers regarding unhindered access to world markets are considered.
    • In February, Moscow talked about the “impracticability” of extending the “grain agreement” due to sanctions. The Deputy Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the

Russian Federation, Serhiy Vershinin, stated that it is “impractical” if sanctions affecting agricultural exports are not removed from Moscow.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.03.23

Personnel – almost 152,190 people (+820)

Tanks – 3,409 (+4)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,683 (+10);

Artillery systems – 2,414 (+12);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 487 (+3); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 247 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,289 (+8); Aircraft – 302 (+1);

Helicopters – 289 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,066 (+5); Intercepted cruise missiles – 873 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine approved the regulations on the public anti-corruption council, comprised of 15 people. The Minister of Defense, Oleksiy Reznikov, signed the corresponding order on Friday, March 3. The newly created consultative and advisory body, after conducting an open nationwide vote for candidates on the platform of the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption and determining the winners, should ensure the transparent operation of the Ministry of Defense and civilian control.

International diplomatic aspect

U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland made an unannounced trip to Ukraine to participate in the “United for Justice Conference.” Merrick Garland “held several meetings and reaffirmed our determination to hold Russia accountable for crimes committed in its unjust and unprovoked invasion against its sovereign neighbor.” “Russia must be held accountable for these horrific crimes. Putin must be held accountable. We must do everything in our power to bring the perpetrators to justice. The European Union is supportive of the role of the International Criminal Court. We also believe that there needs to be a dedicated tribunal to prosecute Russia’s crime of aggression,” President von der Leyen stated. “Every gunshot that takes an innocent life should lead to a legal and just verdict that punishes murder,” President Zelensky addressed the audience. “Vladimir Putin and all his accomplices must receive legal and fair sentences. For everything they did. In the name and memory of all whose lives they took, whose destinies they destroyed. For the aggression they started,” Zelensky said. Ukraine believes in the necessity of a UN General Assembly resolution that will enable the creation of a special tribunal on the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine. The tribunal is thought to fill the legal gap of the International Criminal Court and enable the prosecution for the crime of aggression, regardless immunity Putin enjoys as the head of state.

The German company Rheinmetall is in talks with Ukraine on the construction of a tank plant on the territory of Ukraine, Spiegel reported. A €200 million worth of project will allow producing some 400 Panther MBTs annually.

Joe Biden thanked Olaf Scholtz, who is visiting the U.S., for “his strong and steady leadership” that “made a world of difference.” The POTUS underscored that they “worked lockstep to supply critical security assistance to Ukraine.” In his turn, the Chancellor stressed the importance of cooperation in the “very important year because of the very dangerous threat to peace that comes from Russia invading Ukraine.” He reiterated the “message that we will continue to do so as long as it takes and as long as it is necessary.”

The Dutch prosecutor’s office is investigating 29 criminal cases of import-export violations related to circumventing sanctions against Russia and 16 financial violations. One of the investigations is about chip exports to Russia via Kazakhstan. Earlier this year, NOS published a report about the critical importance of Dutch-made microchips for Russian weapon systems. “These chips are regularly found in almost all types of Russian military drones and other precision weapons, such as cruise missiles,” said James Byrne of RUSI.

According to a Levada Centre poll, most Russians support their country’s war against Ukraine. In February this year, 68% supported their army’s actions, while less than a quarter (23%) didn’t support them. It’s a slight decrease in support from 78% a year ago and an increase in rejection from 17%. Meanwhile, 48% of respondents support the idea of negotiations, while 44% tend to support the continuation of the war. One-fifth of Russians may support the idea of returning the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine back to Ukraine, while 71% are against such a possibility. Less than a quarter may support returning the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions back to Ukraine, while more than two-thirds (67%) are against it. Levada Centre didn’t ask about an opinion on Crimea, for the illegal annexation of the peninsula is still highly popular among Russians. Most Russians would support a ceasefire (72%), while almost a quarter (23%) is against it. A third of Russians believe that the reason for the Russian war was to prevent an attack on Russia; almost a third (27%) think it was about the protection of ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions; 12% of Russians are sure it was about rooting out Nazism and fascism; 9% believe the reason was to stop NATO expansion, mitigating threat of biological and nuclear weapons; 9% are openly talking about imperial conquest.

Russia, relevant news

The number of Instagram users in Russia after the year of its blocking fell five times. As “Vedomosti” writes with reference to a Mediascope study, now 6% of Russians over 12 years old access the social network daily; a year ago, this figure was 31%. The indicator for Facebook decreased by 3.5 times: from 7% in 2022 to 2% now. Telegram became the main beneficiary of the redistribution of the users: the average daily coverage of the messenger increased by 1.8 times over the year. Now 41% of Russians over 12 years old visit Telegram every day.


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