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CDS Daily brief (05.03.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

  • The Russian forces shelled 9 Oblasts of Ukraine on March 4, 2012, killing and injuring civilians;
  • 462 children died, and more than 931 were injured to various degrees of severity as a result of the full-scale Russian aggression.
  • Diplomatic steps to return the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to Ukraine have reached a dead end;
  • Almost 3 million hectares of forest have been damaged due to Russian aggression. This is almost a third of the forested territory of Ukraine.

Military:

  • Russian military focus on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions.
  • Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 130 Russian attacks in different directions;
  • The air grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation involved in the aggression numbers 387 aircraft, 329 helicopters (including 139 attack aircraft), and 29 aircraft and 25 helicopters of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus;

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The Russian forces are trying to break the sturdy defense of the Joint Forces in the Bakhmut area and push them out of the city;
  • The Russian military is preparing for a massive missile attack on the infrastructure of Ukraine.
  • Sea: Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said on Sunday that Ankara is making every effort to extend the “grain agreement”.

International:

  • Stalinism is flourishing in Russia [Stalin died on march 5, 1953]
  • Ukrainian pilots are undergoing testing of their skills in the US with the aim of defining how long it would take for them to begin operating F-16s.
  • Olaf Scholz believes Russia must withdraw its troops for diplomacy to start working. He is sure it’s up to Ukrainians to decide on any concessions, including on Crimea.
Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of March 5, 2023, more than 1,393 children were affected in Ukraine due to the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation. According to the official information of juvenile prosecutors, 462 children died, and more than 931 were injured to various degrees of severity.

According to the Presidential envoy for children’s rights, Darya Herasymchuk, Ukrainian children are moved to the territory of the Russian Federation in an organized manner after the murder of their parents, and after separating from their parents during the so-called filtering; they are taken out of boarding schools. There were also cases when children were taken from their families in

captured territories under the guise of rehabilitation in children’s camps, Herasimchuk noted. She stressed that telephones are immediately taken away from the children to ensure they can’t contact their parents. And if their whereabouts in Russia become known to the Ukrainian authorities, they have moved away, making it very difficult to find and return the stolen children home.

Russian attacks

The Russian forces shelled 9 Oblasts of Ukraine on March 4, 2012, killing and injuring civilians. According to the heads of Oblast Military Administrations, as of 9:00 a.m. on March 5, the situation in their respective Oblasts was the following:

  • Chernihiv Oblast: two mortar attacks on Novgorod-Siversky district. Without victims and destruction.
  • Sumy Oblast: there were artillery attacks on border areas during the day and night and in the morning. 117 mortar and artillery hits on 7 territorial communities were recorded. Power lines were damaged. No victims were reported.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: the Russian occupiers shelled the civilian infrastructure in the area of at least 21 towns and villages. 46 reports were filed about the destruction of residential properties and infrastructure objects.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Russian army fired heavy artillery and anti-aircraft missiles at the Nikopol district. Two people from the Chervonohryhorivka community died. 11 private houses and one high-rise building, a gas station, 3 farm buildings, power lines and a gas pipeline were damaged.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: at night, the enemy shelled the city of Kupyansk. At least 5 houses were destroyed, and there were fires. Rescuers retrieved the body of a 65-year-old civilian from under the rubble. The railway station “Kupyansk Pivdenny” was damaged.
  • Luhansk Oblast: the Russian forces carried out artillery shelling of Stelmakhivka, Nevske, Chervonopopivka, and Bilohorivka. The situation in the Oblast remains difficult.
  • Donetsk Oblast: ground and air launches of S-300 missiles on residential and industrial areas were recorded during the day and at night. 24 objects were damaged, 2 people died and 7 were wounded.
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: the enemy launched two artillery strikes on the water area of the Ochakiv community. There are no casualties.
  • Kherson Oblast: there were artillery shelling of the areas of at least 10 towns and villages and the city of Kherson. A 57-year-old man received a shrapnel wound to the chest and died in his own house. Four police officers were injured in Antonivka village. They were hospitalized with shrapnel wounds and contusions.

The number of people killed in the March 2 missile attack that destroyed part of a residential building in Zaporizhzhia has increased to 13 people and includes a family with an 8-month-old daughter, the State Emergency Service reported. 11 people were rescued from under the rubble; two people are still missing.

Zaporizhzhia NPP

Diplomatic steps to return the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to Ukraine are currently unsuccessful, Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko said. He stressed that the situation had reached a dead end. Ukraine’s position is that any negotiations regarding the ZNPP should be based: firstly, on the demilitarization of the plant and secondly, on the exit of the Rosatom workers from the ZNPP. Thirdly, Ukrainian personnel should be given the opportunity to operate a nuclear facility calmly, without pressure. But in response, Putin proclaimed the ZNPP “federal” property, – Galushchenko noted.

Ukraine receives alarm signals from the IAEA mission working at the ZNPP; Russians behave extremely unprofessionally at the station. “The IAEA mission confirms that the Russians operate the plant in such a way that its equipment and facilities are significantly deteriorating. There is a feeling that one of the goals of the invaders is to leave it non-operational after the de- occupation,” Galushchenko said.

Environment

The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources has developed a new methodology for recording and calculating environmental damage. The damage caused by the Russian Federation is estimated at 2 trillion UAH, the Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine Ruslan Strilets said. The harm includes land, air, and water pollution, burning forests, and destroying natural resources. According to him, the forest is currently affected the most. Almost 3 million hectares of forest have been damaged. This is almost a third of the forested territory of Ukraine. Almost 500,000 hectares are currently under temporary occupation or in the war zone.

Occupied territories

In the occupied Luhansk Oblast, teenagers born in 2006 are urgently registered for military service by the occupation authorities. Luhansk Oblast Military Administration warns they may be sent to the frontlines as early as next year. In addition, the occupying authorities intensified their search for possible draft evaders in the Oblast.

Operational situation General conclusion:
  • The main efforts of the Russian military are concentrated on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions.
Battleline:
  • Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 130 Russian attacks in different directions;
  • The Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions near Nevske, Serebryansk Forestry and Bilohorivka of Luhansk Oblast, Vasyukivka, Zaliznyanske, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, Bakhmut, Kamianka, Severne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Pobyeda of Donetsk Oblast.
  • The Russian forces continued their offensive near Svatove and advanced north of Novovodyanе.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces tried to attack Russian positions in Vilshany and Lyman Pershyi and counterattacked near Chervonopopivka.
  • The Russian forces advanced about 5 km northwest of Bakhmut. Units of the Joint Forces destroyed a bridge in the Khromove area, which made it difficult for the enemy to advance.
Change in enemy disposition:
  • The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation’s air grouping involved the aggression numbers 387 aircraft, 329 helicopters (including 139 attack aircraft), and 29 aircraft and 25 helicopters of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus.
  • The enemy keeps up to 142 of Kh-22 cruise missiles, up to 85 of Kh-101/Kh-555 type, and up to 20 of Kh-47M2 type cruise missiles at the airfields where cruise missile carriers are based.
  • Attack UAVs are deployed at the following airfield:
    • 2 Mohajer-6 UAVs and 2 ground control stations at the Taganrog air base,
    • 2 Mohajer-6 UAVs and a ground control station at the Kirovske air base (Crimea),

– 1 UAV Mohajer

  • 6 and a ground control station at the Baranovichi air base (RB – 1 UAV Mohajer
    • 6 and a ground control station) at the field airfield “Peremozhne” (Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine)

Escalation indicators: not detected

Possible operation situation developments:
  • The Russian forces are trying to break the sturdy defense of the Joint Forces in the Bakhmut area and push them out of the city;
  • The Russian military is preparing for a massive missile attack on the infrastructure of Ukraine.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
  • The enemy has built up its forces and has 14 surface ships and two submarines at sea performing tasks south of the Crimean Peninsula. Up to 24 Kalibr missiles are on board one frigate, one corvette, and two submarines.
  • Russian ships are scattered at the bases of Sevastopol, Feodosia, Kerch, Novorossiysk and Novoozerne.
  • One patrol boat was on duty in the waters of the Sea of Azov.
  • Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Control of the air situation and control of the enemy’s operational-tactical aviation in the southeastern part of Ukraine was carried out by the A-50U AEW&C aircraft, which was on duty over the Sea of Azov.
  • One flight of military transport aircraft of the Russian Air Force was made to each Dzhankoy and Belbek airfields to deliver personnel.
  • 9 fighter, bomber and anti-submarine aircraft were involved in monitoring the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. A total of more than 30 sorties was made.
  • The Russian command is transferring additional “Rosgvardiya” special police units to the temporarily occupied part of Kherson Oblast, probably to suppress the resistance movement. Ukrainian missile and artillery units destroyed two Russian observation posts each in Oleshki and on the islands in the Dnipro delta, as well as an ammunition dump in the Kakhovka district.
“The Grain initiative”
  • Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said on Sunday that Ankara is making every effort to extend the “grain agreement”.
  • The Black Sea Grain Initiative, launched by the UN and Turkey last July, allowed grain to be exported from three Ukrainian ports. The deal was extended in November and will expire on March 18 unless an extension is agreed upon. “We are working hard on the smooth implementation and further extension of the Black Sea Grain Agreement,” Çavuşoğlu said. He also said that he discussed the issue of extending the agreement with UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.03.23

Personnel – almost 153.120 people (+930)

Tanks – 3,414 (+5)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,692 (+9);

Artillery systems – 2,426 (+12);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 488 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 248 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,299 (+10); Aircraft – 302 (0);

Helicopters – 289 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,071 (+5); Intercepted cruise missiles – 873 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

International diplomatic aspect

On the 5th of March 1953, the brutal Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin died. Almost 27 million of the Soviet subjects were killed or put to death in GULAGs and by Holodomors-genocides. Only the Holodomor genocide of 1932-33 caused the death of 4 to 6 million innocent Ukrainians. Some

26.6 million were killed during the Second World War. Though the Nazis and their allies killed a lot of military personnel and soldiers, the way how the Soviet rulers treated their population should be noted. “Countrywomen-will-give-birth”, a phrase coined by Marshall Georgiy Zhukov, perfectly describes the Russian attitude towards human life and explains abnormal casualties during the Second World War. It’s still true for the Russian war in Ukraine 2014-2023.

But in modern-day Russia, we see Stalinism on the march. Firstly, almost two-thirds of Russians (56%) believe that Stalin was a great leader, while only 14% thought he was not, and a third (27%)

partially agree with the two previous groups, according to a Levada Centre poll of 2021. Two- thirds feel admiration, respect, or sympathy toward Stalin, while almost a third (28%) are indifferent, and 11% feel fear, irritation, or hate. Stalin is ahead of Vladimir Lenin, another bloody tyrant, and even Alexander Pushkin, the beloved Russian poet in the ranking of the greatest people of “any” nation “ever.” At least 60 monuments, bas-reliefs, and busts of Stalin were installed on Vladimir Putin’s watch (since 2000). Russians erected at least five statues on the illegally occupied territories of Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea).

According to CNN, two Ukrainian pilots are now in Arizona for a test of what time is required for pilots with their skills to begin operating F-16s. During the US House Armed Services Committee hearing last week, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl said that the Defense Department believes it would take eighteen to twenty months to prepare pilots and technical personnel. However, he stated that the Administration currently doesn’t prioritize providing Ukraine with modern fighter jets for various reasons, including financial restraints.

“My view, it is necessary that Putin understands that he will not succeed with this invasion and his imperialistic aggression — that he has to withdraw troops. This is the basis for talks,” Olaf Scholz told Fareed Zakaria of CNN. “If you look at the proposal of the Ukrainians, it is easy to understand that they are ready for peace.” Answering whether Ukraine should concede Crimea for a “deal,” the German Chancellor replied, “we will not take decisions instead of them. We support them.” Olaf Scholz indicated to “organize a certain way of security guarantees for the country, in times of peace, to come, but we are not there yet.”


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