CDS Daily brief (06.03.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• A video of an unarmed Ukrainian POW shot by his Russian captors appeared online. Ukrainian officials stress this is an egregious war crime and call for its investigation;
• Russian forces attacked 9 Ukrainian Oblasts on March 5;
• 307 Ukrainian children stolen by the Russian occupiers have been returned to Ukraine up until now.
• 8,500 unemployed people have already been recruited into the “Recovery Army” meant to involve unemployed Ukrainians into paid community work;
• President Zelensky conducted a reshuffle at the SBU;
• Ramzan Kadyrov’s influence on the occupied territories of Donetsk Oblast is growing.

Military:

• The Russian military is focused on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions.
• The way Ukrainian Bakhmut defenses are built forces Russian units to advance through the city’s center unless they succeed north and south of Bakhmut. Such urban conditions and a natural obstacle (the Bakhmutka River) favor the defense.
• The Russian forces began to use new UPAB-1500B aviation bombs.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Russian troops currently do not have the manpower and equipment necessary to support large-scale offensive operations to resume the offensive on Kramatorsk and Slovyansk;
• Russian forces do not have enough capabilities to continue the significant strengthening of the Bakhmut area without withdrawing forces from other directions due to the lack of reserves;
• It is implausible that Russian forces will be able to conduct offensive actions with the current demoralized and degraded forces in the Vuhledar area.

International:

• Ukraine is calling on the ICC to investigate a documented war crime of murdering an unarmed Ukrainian soldier by the Russians.
• A Russian general cargo ship crossed the straits into the Black Sea, carrying tons of military supplies to Russia.
• The German Chancellor joined the chorus of those who warned China not to supply weapons to Russia or face “consequences.” However, Olaf Scholtz’s cautious language indicates difficulties Germany might face were it to impose sanctions. Meanwhile, China has already been assisting Putin’s regime with increased trade, particularly oil, gas, and semiconductors and dual-use goods.

Humanitarian aspect:

A video of an unarmed Ukrainian POW being shot by his Russian captors after he said “Glory to Ukraine” was published by several Telegram channels. The Telegram channel of Andriy Yermak, the Head of the Presidential Office, also shared it. Yermak stressed that war crimes are cultivated

[by Russians] and whitewashed through the myth of the Ukrainian “Nazis” and this murder of a person who was captured is another example of this. “There will be justice for every war crime. Nobody will be able to hide from it”, Yermak stressed. It’s not known who and where recorded the video. Foreign Minister Kuleba called on the ICC to investigate the killing and said that this is another piece of evidence that proves the genocidal nature of the war. “We will find the murderers”, President Zelensky said.

8,500 unemployed people have already been recruited into the “Recovery Army”, the Ministry of Economy press service reports. The project, aimed at attracting people who have lost their jobs to perform community work for the reconstruction of the country, is gaining popularity. Today it is implemented in 13 regions, and those involved get paid more than unemployment benefits.

Two teenage cousins illegally taken to Russia by the occupying forces returned to Ukraine, the Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine said. They both lived in Kherson. One of them was taken to Russia as if to a summer camp after his mother signed the necessary papers but was not returned back to his mother. The Ukrainian ombudsman said that according to the National Information Bureau, 307 Ukrainian children had been returned to Ukraine up until now.

The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights recorded 21,793 civilian casualties since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, including 8,173 killed and 13,620 wounded. However, UNHCHR notes that the actual number of casualties is significantly higher, as information from some places where intense fighting is ongoing is delayed, and many reports are still unconfirmed.

Russian attacks

On the night of March 5-6, Russia launched 15 Shahed-136 kamikaze drones at Ukraine from the northern direction. 13 of them were shot down by Ukrainian air defense forces, Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat said.

Russian forces attacked 9 Ukrainian Oblasts on March 5. Some of the consequences include:

• The Russian forces continued heavy shelling in Kherson Oblast. A house was destroyed in a targeted attack on Ponyativka village. A woman and two of her sons were killed. A church full of villagers was attacked in Kindiyka. Luckily, nobody was killed.
• At least 14 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast were attacked. 16 reports of damaged property were filed. No victims were reported.
• The Russian forces shelled multiple towns and villages in Kharkiv Oblast. In Budarka, Chuhuyiv District, a civilian car was hit by a Russian munition yesterday afternoon. A couple died – a 48-year-old man and a 45-year-old woman.
• 1 person died, and 5 were injured in Donetsk Oblast during the past day. Residential areas were shelled both during the day and at night. There was a missile strike on Kramatorsk at night.
• Chernihiv and Mykolayiv Oblasts were also attacked, but the attack intensity was low. No victims or damage was reported.

Mine danger

In Mykolaiv Oblast on March 6, one man was killed, and four were seriously injured due to three separate mine explosions. Four of them were agricultural workers who went to their fields, and one person who went to gather firewood.

Russian war crimes

Ukrainian law enforcement officially charged three Russian military personnel. They are accused of shooting 10 civilian cars in Irpin, Kyiv region ho on March 5-6, 2022. As a result of the shootings, 9 people died, 12 more were injured, the National Police of Ukraine reports.

Occupied territories

The Russian Education and Science Ministry said that higher educational institutions in the newly annexed Ukrainian territories would bring their programs in compliance with the Russian educational program by May 1.

According to the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD, Ramzan Kadyrov’s influence on the occupied territories of Donetsk Oblast is growing; in fact, they are under his control. His fighters “ensure order” and carry out repressions in captured cities. It is also reported that Kadyrov’s people loot the region. Denis Pushylin, who formally performs the role of leader in the captured areas of Donetsk Oblast, agreed to the “training” of the so-called “DPR militants” at the special forces university located in Chechnya.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The main efforts of the Russian military are concentrated on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions.
• The way Ukrainian Forces built Bakhmut defenses makes Russian units to advance through the center of the city unless they succeed north and south of Bakhmut. Such urban conditions and a natural obstacle (the Bakhmutka River) favor the defense, provided that the Defense Forces hold the line from Khromove to the south to the T0504 Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka highway.

Battleline:

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 95 Russian attacks in different directions;
• The Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions near Bilohorivka and Nevske of Luhansk Oblast and Zaliznyanske, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Orihove-Vasylivka, Bakhmut and Ivanivske of Donetsk Oblast.
• The forces of the “Wagner” PMC advanced in northeastern Bakhmut and the area of the Stupky railway station.

Change in enemy disposition:

• The Russian forces are maneuvering, moving columns in the areas of Nova Kakhovka (Kherson Oblast) – Armyansk (Crimea).

• In Volnovakha, Donetsk Oblast, the Russian invaders set up a repair base for damaged equipment using the premises and materials of the local vocational-technical school. Students are forced to perform repair work.

Escalation indicators:

• The Russian forces began to use new UPAB-1500B aviation bombs.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian forces are trying to break the sturdy defense of the Ukrainian Joint Forces in the Bakhmut area and push them out of the city;
• In case they capture Bakhmut, the Russian forces will be forced to initiate an operational pause;
• Russian troops currently do not have the manpower and equipment necessary to support large-scale offensive operations to resume the offensive on Kramatorsk and Slovyansk;
• Russian forces do not have enough capabilities to continue the significant strengthening of the Bakhmut area without withdrawing forces from another part of the front line due to the lack of unused reserves;
• It is highly unlikely that Russian forces will be able to conduct any offensive actions with the current demoralized and degraded forces in the Vuhledar area;
• The Russian military will lose the initiative in Ukraine during the coming months due to the culmination of three main offensive operations (Kreminna, Bakhmut. Vuhledar).

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The enemy has built up its forces at sea and has 15 ships, including two submarines, performing tasks south of the Crimean Peninsula. Up to 16 Kalibr missiles are on board of one frigate and two submarines.
• Russian ships are scattered at the bases of Sevastopol, Feodosia, Kerch, Novorossiysk and Novoozerne.
• One patrol boat is on duty in the waters of the Sea of Azov.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Control of the air situation and the enemy’s operational-tactical aviation in the southeastern part of Ukraine was carried out by the A-50U AEW&C aircraft, which was on duty over the Sea of Azov.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. A total of 24 combat sorties were made during the day.
• The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 3 motor boats with a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group in Kherson Oblast. The enemy was moving in the area of the Great Potemkin Island on converted civilian motorboats.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 06.03.23

Personnel – almost 153,770 people (+650)

Tanks – 3,423 (+9)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,703 (+11);

Artillery systems – 2,433 (+7);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 488 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 250 (+2); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,307 (+8); Aircraft – 302 (0);

Helicopters – 289 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,086 (+15); Intercepted cruise missiles – 873 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The Cabinet of Ministers appointed Semen Kryvonos, previously the head of the State Inspection of Architecture and Urban Planning, as the director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine. The Prime Minister called on Kryvonos to appoint two of his competitors who made it to the competition’s final as deputies. Although Kryvonos’ candidacy was selected in an open competition, some civil society activists say his candidacy does not meet the independence requirement because he has ties to the Office of the President.

President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the deputy head of the SBU, Oleksandr Yakushev, the head of the state secret protection and licensing department of the SBU, Ihor Nosok, the head of the economic support department of the SBU, Oleksandr Provotorov, as well as the heads of the Security Service in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy Oblasts.

International diplomatic aspect

“It is imperative that [Prosecutor] Karim Khan QC launches an immediate [International Criminal Court] investigation into this heinous war crime. Perpetrators must face justice,” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister reacted on a viral video documenting another Russian war crime. An unarmed Ukrainian soldier was shot dead by the Russian troops after saying “Glory to Ukraine,” a standard military salute in the UAF.

A Russian general cargo ship crossed the straits into the Black Sea, carrying tons of military supplies to Russia. It’s being delivered by S.C. South LLC, a Russian shipping company that is engaged in transporting military equipment. The ship was loaded in the Russian naval base at Tartus and, after crossing the Bosporus, was escorted by Steregushchiy, a missile class corvette. The Turkish government closed the straits’ passage for the Russian warships, but the Russians exploited gaps in the convention. It remains to be seen whether the cargo includes Iranian ballistic missiles, for the F.T. believes that the Kremlin decided not to get them, fearing that the

U.S. might counterbalance Iranian ballistic missiles with ATACMS.

The German Chancellor joined the chorus of those who warned China not to supply weapons to Russia or face “consequences.” Olaf Scholz didn’t elaborate on the nature of the consequences and didn’t give a clear answer on whether his government would be ready to impose sanctions had China crossed the line. Though China insists on being impartial side, its bilateral trade with Russia hit a record $190 billion last year. Chinese crude oil imports expanded by 10%, constituting

about 20% of Russia’s crude exports in 2021. The import of Russian LNG has doubled. Evidence shows that China supplies Russia with more semiconductors via shell companies in Hong Kong, Turkey, and the UAE. C4ADS investigation found at least 268 shipments of dual-use aircraft, radar, and laboratory equipment parts to Russian defense companies. Olaf Scholtz is in a difficult position, though; after coping with the economic fallout of the Russian invasion, Germany increased its reliance on China. The bilateral trade grew by about 21% to €297.9 billion. So, a possible trade war would put Germany in dire straits.

Russia, relevant news

The United States refused to issue visas to several Russian diplomats who planned to participate in the work of the information technology group at UN headquarters, the Russian representative in the group, Irina Tyazhlova, said.

The deficit of the federal budget of the Russian Federation in January-February amounted to 2.58 trillion rubles or 88% of the annual plan (in January, the deficit was 1.76 trillion rubles or about 60% of the annual plan), Russian publication Kommersant reports.

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