CDS Daily brief (07.03.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Ukraine has returned another 130 Ukrainian defenders from Russian captivity. Among them are 87 defenders of Mariupol, 71 of whom are from “Azovstal”, and 35 servicemen from the Donetsk direction, captured in the Bakhmut and Soledar area;
• The government approved the mechanism of the mandatory evacuation of children from active combat zones. Currently, the criteria for forced evacuation are met only in Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast. As of March 7, less than 4,000 civilians remain in Bakhmut, including 38 children.
• About 200 medical institutions Russia destroyed have already been restored in Ukraine; some were rebuilt from scratch.
• Russian forces attacked 9 Ukrainian Oblasts on March 6; there were killed and injured civilians.
• In February, the absence of an electricity shortage in Ukraine led to a revival of economic activity; since the start of the full-scale invasion, 95% of retail businesses have reopened.
• Ukraine’s Security Service Cyber specialists record numerous attempts by the Russian special services to obtain intelligence information in Ukraine under the guise of the activities of foreign media representatives. They are primarily interested in information about the results of Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, including the locations of the hits and their consequences.

Military:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions;
• The enemy changed their tactics near Bakhmut and brought into battle more prepared units, in particular, Airborne Forces and special purpose units;
• The presence of Russian Airborne Forces near Bakhmut in December-January indicates that regular Russian troops are forced to support or replace the battle-worn units of the “Wagner” PMC.
• The enemy controls 40 percent of Bakhmut and, despite having fire control over all roads into the city, still lacks physical control over critical supply routes.
• The capture of Bakhmut is necessary but not sufficient for the enemy’s further advancement in the Donetsk region; the loss of Bakhmut for the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not cause serious operational or strategic concern;
• The presence of heavily degraded and poorly restored military units of three different military districts in the Donetsk region indicates that the enemy will not be able to continue successful offensive operations in the Donetsk region in the short term.

International:

• The Russian war caused a sheer magnitude of destruction in Ukraine that will harm future generations. Russia tried to mock the U.K. government for the new legislation preventing migrants from crossing the Channel, while Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine caused an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe.

• Bulgaria’s Constitutional Court ruled out an appeal of fifty pro-Russian M.P.s that security assistance to Ukraine contradicts the country’s basic law. Yet, even without such a decision, the government managed to get Bulgaria in the top five list of assistance suppliers as per the country’s GDP.
• The U.S. and German media claim a Ukrainian commando might be responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines.
• Lukashenko accused the Ukrainian Security Service and the CIA of planning and guiding the attack on the A-50, a Russian surveillance and target acquisition aircraft employed in missile attacks against Ukraine.

Humanitarian aspect:

POWs

Ukraine carried out another exchange of prisoners of war with Russia; 130 Ukrainian defenders returned home, the head of the President’s Office, Andriy Yermak, announced in Telegram. According to him, among the people released from the Russian captivity are 87 Mariupol defenders, 71 of whom are from “Azovstal”. He also informed that 35 people from the Donetsk direction, captured in the Bakhmut and Soledar areas, were released. As noted by the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets, among those released are 45 servicemen of the Armed Forces, 25 National Guards, 23 Border Guards, 21 soldiers of the Naval Forces, eight Territorial Defense servicemen and eight representatives of the State Special Transport Service.

Also, Ukraine returned home the bodies of another 17 fallen defenders from the temporarily occupied territories, the Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories reported in Telegram.

Evacuation

The government approved the mechanism of the mandatory evacuation of children from active combat zones. The Oblast Military Administration will adopt such a decision in agreement with the military command bodies and the Coordination Headquarters for the mandatory evacuation of the population. Mandatory evacuation will be carried out accompanied by one of the parents or other legal representatives. Currently, the criteria for forced evacuation are met only in Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast.

Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories Iryna Vereshchuk stated that as of March 7, less than 4,000 civilians remain in Bakhmut, including at least 38 children. According to her, before the war, more than 70,000 people lived in Bakhmut, of which 12,000 were children.

Healthcare

About 200 medical institutions Russia destroyed have already been restored in Ukraine; some were rebuilt from scratch. However, more than 120 medical facilities remain damaged due to Russian aggression, Minister of Health Viktor Lyashko noted on the air of the national telethon.

“In a large number, we cannot even begin to restore them [medical facilities] because they are constantly under fire, affecting the availability of medical care.” Russia damaged more than 1,200 medical facilities in Ukraine, the Minister noted. In addition, there is evidence that the Russian army is targeting hospitals. In particular, as the minister added, a fire adjuster was detained in Kherson, who adjusted fired specifically at the hospitals. “We handed this fact over to international prosecutors so that they could clearly see the violation of the Geneva Convention, which clearly states that during hostilities, hospitals must be outside the range of shelling,” the minister emphasized.

Russian attacks

Russian forces attacked 9 Ukrainian Oblasts on March 6. Some of the consequences include:

• The enemy shelled border villages of Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. No casualties were reported. There is a distraction to residential buildings in Sumy Oblast.
• The enemy fired at the civilian infrastructure of 21 towns and villages of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 26 reports were received about the destruction of housing and infrastructure facilities.
• Residential buildings of Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, were under heavy artillery fire. Three private homes, two farm buildings, and a power line were damaged. No victims were reported.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, the areas of Veterynarne, Strilecha, Krasne, Ternova, Ohirtseve, Vovchansk and Budarki were shelled. At least four residential buildings, outbuildings, a garage, and a fire station were damaged in Kozacha Lopan. Three residential buildings and an educational institution were damaged by enemy shelling in Vovchansk.
• One civilian was killed, and seven were wounded in Donetsk Oblast during the past day. In the morning, there was a massive shelling of Avdiivka; there were hits in the central and industrial parts of the city, on the outskirts of the coke-chemical plant. During the day, Russian troops carried out missile attacks, an airstrike, and shelling from Grad anti- aircraft missiles, artillery, and mortars on Donetsk Oblast. Four residential buildings (one multi-apartment), an enterprise, a thermal power station, three garages, a school, and a gas pipeline were damaged.
• During the day, the enemy carried out 65 shellings of Kherson Oblast and fired 354 shells, including hitting Kherson three times. A woman was injured in Kozatske village. The Russians attacked the village with artillery and dropped ammunition from drones. In Zeleny Gai, the tractor encountered an unknown explosive object during fieldwork. One person died on the spot, and another was injured. Another 52 people were evacuated from the territories of the Kherson Oblast, liberated from the Russians.

Justice

The law enforcement officers reported the suspicion to a Russian serviceman who tortured residents of the temporarily captured territories of Kherson Oblast, particularly the head of one of the village councils of the Skadovsk district. The Prosecutor General’s Office reported that according to the investigation, since the beginning of the capture of Kherson Oblast, a serviceman of the RF armed forces was appointed the so-called “commandant – head of the garrison”, stationed in the village of Lazurne. He personally participated and gave instructions and orders

to detain and torture local residents with a pro-Ukrainian position and illegally seized real estate. “The suspect, together with his accomplices – the military of the Russian Federation, detained the head of one of the village councils of the Skadovsk district. He was kept in the basement of the boarding house, systematically beaten, threatened with reprisals and shot over the head, simulating an execution,” the message reads.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions;
• The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation near Bakhmut changed their tactics and brought into battle more qualitatively prepared units, in particular, Airborne Forces and special purpose units;
• The increase in the presence of Russian Airborne Forces around Bakhmut (end of December – beginning of January) indicates that regular Russian troops are forced to support or replace the battle-worn units of the “Wagner” PMC.

Battleline:

• Units of the Defense Forces repelled 140 enemy attacks in various directions.
• The enemy unsuccessfully carried out offensive actions in Hryanykivka, Nevske, Bilohorivka, and Fedorivka in Luhansk Oblast and Bilohorivka, Fedorivka, Zaliznyanske, Yahidne, Ivanovske, Novokalynove, Krasnohorivka, Kamianka, Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske and Maryinka in Donetsk Oblast.
• The enemy controls 40 percent of Bakhmut and, despite having fire control over all roads into the city, still lacks physical control over critical supply routes.
• The Ukrainian Defence Forces launched a counterattack in the direction of Bohdanivka – Ivanivske and near highway T0504 Kostyantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Bakhmut.
• The enemy is trying to maintain fire control over the Dnipro river delta; it has fired several fire strikes on Ukrainian positions on Velykyi Potemkin Island near Bilohrudove.

Change in enemy disposition:

• The enemy concentrated the units of the 114th motorized rifle regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th Army and the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58th Army of the Southern Military District in the area of Krasnohorivka and Vodyane.
• After the defeat in the Kharkiv region, the enemy restored the 200th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Northern Fleet and redeployed the brigade to the Donetsk region.

Escalation indicators: not detected

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy will try to disrupt the stability of the defense of the Ukrainian Joint Forces in the area of Bakhmut and push them out of the city;

• The capture of Bakhmut for the RF Armed Forces is necessary but not sufficient for further advancement in the Donetsk region; the loss of Bakhmut for the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not cause serious operational or strategic concern;
• The presence of heavily degraded and poorly restored military units of three different military districts in the Donetsk region indicates that the enemy will not be able to continue successful offensive operations in the Donetsk region in the short term.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The enemy has increased its forces at sea; it has 11 ships of different classes carrying out tasks south of the Crimean peninsula. There is no Kalibr missile carrier at sea. All carriers of Kalibr missiles returned to their base points on March 7.
• One patrol boat is on duty in the waters of the Sea of Azov.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. A total of 20 sorties were made over the past day.
• The intensity of the movement of military equipment by road and rail transport from Crimea to Kherson Oblast remains stable. From the Crimean side, railway freight trains arrive on the territory of Kherson Oblast, unloading military equipment and ammunition at the “Kalanchak”, “Brylivka”, and “Novooleksiyivka” stations.
• In the Kherson direction, the enemy continues to shell Ukrainian positions and settlements along the right bank of the Dnipro River with mortars, rocket and barrel artillery, tanks and UAVs.
• Velykyi Potyomkinsky and Bilohrudy islands continue to be in the so-called “grey zone”, from the territory of which the occupiers conduct artillery and mortar attacks on Kherson. Therefore, the Kherson city center and districts of Korabel, Naftogavan, Richport, KhBK, and Tavriysky are in the zone of constant enemy fire.
• In order to encourage the “evacuation” of civilians and discredit Ukrainian Defense Forces, Russian aggressors are constantly shelling civilian infrastructure objects and residential areas of the so-called “fifteen-kilometer zone” of the temporarily occupied left-bank territory of Kherson Oblast.
• Russian troops are strengthening defense lines in the Oblast’s south, creating fortifications along critical roads in the direction of Crimea and building additional crossings across the North Crimean Canal.
• “Grain initiative”. Ukraine has started online negotiations with partners regarding continuing the so-called “grain agreement” to supply food to world markets. This was reported by the Reuters agency, citing a high-ranking source in the government of Ukraine. The “Grain Initiative” provides for the creation of sea corridors for the safe export of grain and agricultural products from the ports of Ukraine, despite the blockade of the ports by the Russian armed forces. According to the source, Ukraine is not conducting direct negotiations with Russia. However, the agency points out that Kyiv knows that the partners it is negotiating with maintain contact with Moscow. Kyiv appeals to all parties to start negotiations on extending the agreement for at least one year and that Ukraine wants to include Mykolaiv ports in the export of agricultural products.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.03.23

Personnel – almost 154,830 people (+1,060)

Tanks – 3,432 (+9)

Armored combat vehicles – 6,714 (+11);

Artillery systems – 2,456 (+23);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 488 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 253 (+3); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,323 (+16); Aircraft – 303 (+1);

Helicopters – 289 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,095 (+9); Intercepted cruise missiles – 873 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

In February, the absence of an electricity shortage in Ukraine led to a revival of economic activity. Now there is a tendency to increase the loading of enterprises, stated in the Macroeconomic and Monetary Review of the NBU.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, 95% of retail businesses have reopened, while as of March 2022, about a third of stores were closed, according to the Retailers Association of Ukraine (RAU) monthly survey data. “According to the data of the latest survey of retail chains – members of RAU, after 12 months, 15,873 out of 16,787 retail outlets of the entire industry are already working. The percentage of operating outlets is 95%, respectively, only 5% are closed,” the message reads.

Cyber specialists of the Security Service of Ukraine record numerous attempts by the special services of the Russian Federation to obtain intelligence information in Ukraine under the guise of the activities of foreign media representatives. “The enemy uses specialized Internet platforms and professional online forums of Ukrainian journalists to collect classified information. On these resources, the occupiers post information requests allegedly from employees of well-known foreign mass media.” In their messages, they appeal to the media and other members of specialized groups to obtain materials, supposedly for the preparation of “plots” or “documentaries” about the war in Ukraine. They are primarily interested in information about the results of Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, including the locations of the hits and their consequences.

International diplomatic aspect

The Russian war caused a sheer magnitude of destruction in Ukraine that will harm future generations, the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights said. Russia tried to mock the Downing 10 decision to prevent migrants from crossing the Channel on small boats to reach the

U.K. The Russian embassy in London twitted that while the U.K. “has struggled to house a little over 160,000 Ukrainian refugees, Russia has already accommodated, as per U.N. refugees, 2.8

million of them, providing food, jobs, shelter, and humanitarian aid.” The Russian diplomatic propagandist didn’t mention that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine generated millions of Ukrainian refugees. The Russian armed forces and mercenaries took away people’s lives (8,173 killed and 13,620 injured as of 6 February, according to OHCHR), homes, and property and caused tremendous damage to their health. Russians are responsible for 8,104,606 refugees (UNHCR) and 7 million internally displaced people (UA Gov). Neither they mentioned that Russia forcefully deported to its territory millions of Ukrainians, including thousands of children (up to 150,000, by UA Gov estimates), and carries out programs of their adoption by Russian citizens that constitute the crime of genocide.

Bulgaria’s Constitutional Court ruled out an appeal of fifty pro-Russian M.P.s that security assistance to Ukraine contradicts the country’s basic law. The “fifth column” wasn’t happy with the agreement between Ukraine and Bulgaria on the supply of weapons, equipment, and ammunition. However, the government managed to provide assistance despite fierce opposition from pro-Russian forces. Bulgaria is among the top five countries the largest suppliers of military assistance to Ukraine as per its GDP.

According to NYT, U.S. officials are looking into whether a pro-Ukrainian group conducted the attack on the Nord Stream gas pipelines. A group of unidentified men chartered a yacht in a Ukrainians’ owned agency, according to Zeit. The saboteurs’ nationality is apparently unclear, for they have used professionally forged passports. The paper argues that it might also be a false flag operation that deliberately leads to Ukraine, though the “investigators have apparently found no evidence that confirms such a scenario.”

Alexander Lukashenko claims to have arrested twenty suspects involved in an attempt to sabotage a Russian A-50 surveillance aircraft based at the Machulishchi airfield. The surveillance and target acquisition aircraft was engaged in missile attacks against Ukraine. Lukashenko accused the Ukrainian Security Service, a counterintelligence agency, and the CIA of planning the attack and recruiting people. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry responded that “the threat should not be sought in Ukraine, which is fighting for itself and seeking peace. It lies in Russia, which is trying, by all means, to draw Belarus even more into the war, to finally deprive it of its independence and sovereignty.”

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