CDS Daily brief (10.03.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Russian forces continued attacking residential areas and energy infrastructure. The energy situation remains difficult in 4 Oblasts following yesterday’s attacks;
• Ukrainian human rights defender and POW Maksym Butkevych was sentenced to 13 years in a Russian colony for “deliberately targeting civilians” by the puppet LNR court following a “confession”. Ukrainian journalists say he was not at the purported crime scene b/c he was not even in the region at the time of his “crime”; Ukrainian MFA calls for his release;
• Since the beginning of the large-scale Russian aggression, 330,907 explosive objects and 2,891 kg of explosives have been defused, including 2 thousand 191 aerial bombs.

Military:

• The Russian military focus on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions.
• The Russian forces are trying to break the sturdy defense of the Joint Forces in the area between Ivanivske and Khromove and push them out of Bakhmut;
• During the last two weeks, the enemy significantly intensified sabotage and reconnaissance activities in the Kharkiv direction.
• The enemy covertly removes its own and Ukrainian mine barriers along the Dvorichna- Lyman Pershy frontier and makes passages through them.
• The Russian military is preparing for an offensive in the Kupyansk direction.
• The Russian Federation produces at most 20-30 Kalibr missiles monthly. The last delivery of such missiles to Sevastopol occurred at the end of February; the next is possible in the second half of March.

International:

• Ukrainian branch of Russian Church is set to lose a monopoly over the most important religious site in Ukraine.
• The U.K. and France leaders agreed to coordinate their assistance to Ukraine and the training of Ukrainian Marines. The first Patriot air defense system has reportedly been delivered to Ukraine.
• The U.S. has sanctioned Chinese companies involved in sanctions violations by supplying Russia with dual-use goods.
• The lion’s share of Russians holds the most negative view of the U.S., even more than of Ukraine, while China and India are seen as extremely positive.

Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of March 10, 2023, according to the official information of juvenile prosecutors, 464 children died, and more than 934 receiver injures of various degrees of severity.

On March 9, the pyrotechnic units of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine defused 356 explosive objects. Since the beginning of the large-scale Russian aggression, 330,907 explosive objects and 2,891 kg of explosives have been defused, including 2 thousand 191 aerial bombs.

Russian attacks

Russian attacks on residential areas and civilian infrastructure continued.

• At night, the Russian forces hit the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with rockets and heavy artillery. There is an impact on the energy facility. There is severe destruction. On March 10, Russian troops shelled the Nikopol district with artillery. Two men died, and three others were wounded.
• In Kherson Oblast on March 9, the Russians carried out 79 attacks, firing 407 shells from heavy artillery and “Grad” MRLS. Russian shelling killed four people, including a child, and three were wounded.
• On March 9, the Russians killed 1 Donetsk Oblast resident in Vovchanka. 2 more people in the region were injured.
• Two waterfront communities were shelled in Mykolayiv Oblasts. No victims or damages were reported.

Energy

Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Oblasts experience blackouts due to the Russian attack on March 9. About 20,000 customers were cut off from electricity in Zaporizhzhia. In Kharkiv, critical infrastructure and part of the consumers have recovered. However, 470,000 consumers in Kharkiv and 50,000 in the region remain without electricity. The situation remained difficult in Zhytomyr and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.

Electricity supply has been entirely restored in Odesa Oblast.

According to Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba, the energy coalition formed at the Group of Seven Plus ministerial meeting is ready to help Ukraine prepare for the next winter and invest in the long-term energy modernization of Ukraine.

Occupied territories

Three Ukrainian soldiers, Viktor Pokhozey, Maksym Butkevych and Vladyslav Shel, were sentenced to terms ranging from 8.5 to 18.5 years in prison in the occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. They are accused of crimes against civilians. Maksym Butkevych is a well-known Ukrainian journalist and human rights defender who enlisted in March 2022 and was captured by Russian troops in July 2022. He was sentenced to 13 years in a colony, reportedly for deliberately shooting a Panzerfaust at 2 civilian women, wounding them. The puppet prosecution said he had confessed. However, the Ukrainian publication “Graty” said it found evidence that at the time of the incident, Butkevych was not in Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets called the sentences “another war crime”. Ukrainian MFA called on the world to condemn the sentence and fight for the release of Butkevych and the other two soldiers.

According to the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD, occupiers in Crimea form a list of administration workers and their families who are subject to priority evacuation. In some cities, e.g. Krasnoperekopsk, plans have already been developed and approved.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The main efforts of the Russian military are concentrated on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions.

Battleline:

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 102 Russian attacks in different directions;
• The Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions near Zaliznyanske, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Krasnohorivka, Kamianka, Vodyane, Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, Pobyeda, Novomykhailivka and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast.
• The Ukrainian Joint Forces built pontoon bridges strengthening their positions around critical ground logistics lines near Khromove, northwest of Bakhmut.
• The “Wagner” PMC mercenaries completely captured Dubovo-Vasylivka.
• The Joint Forces retreated from the positions south of Avdiivka to fortified positions in the Avdiivka industrial zone. The enemy cut the section of the H-20 highway near Vesele and attacked in the direction of Alexandropol.
• The Joint Forces launched a HIMARS strike at a trucking company in Volnovakha (north of Mariupol at the intersection of the N20 and T0509) used by Wagner PMC as a transportation hub.

Change in enemy disposition:

During the last two weeks, the enemy significantly intensified sabotage and reconnaissance activities in the Kharkiv direction, involving 70-80 servicemen of the consolidated detachment of the “Senezh” Center for Special Operations Forces (permanent position – Senezh village, Moscow Oblast), deployed in the area of Valuyky (25 km from Ukraine’s state border).

• The deployment of two BTGs of the 138th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 6th Army, including units of the “Storm” type in the area of the village of Tavilzhanka (Kharkiv Oblast) is being completed;
• Two combined BTGs (“Storm” format) of the 25th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 6th Army were deployed in the area of Vilshana village (Kharkiv Oblast);
• The fully manned and equipped motorized rifle battalion of the 88th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd army corps is transferred to the reserve of the Russian grouping in the area of the Vovchoyarivka village (Luhansk Oblast);
• In the area of Zolotarivka village (Luhansk Oblast), the Russian military deployed into battle the 375th special forces battalion of the mobilization reserve of the 2nd army corps.
• In the area of Enerhodar (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), the deployment of a consolidated unit of the Special Operations Forces of the General Directorate of the GS of the RF Armed Forces is being prepared. It is armed with the Kub (up to 20 units) and Lancet (up to 15 units) attack UAVs (loitering munitions). Possible areas of combat deployment are Kamianka- Dniprovska, Dniprorudne, Vasylivka, Enerhodar, Chystopilya and the area of Verbove – Novofedorivka.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy 30th engineer regiment of the 6th army covertly removes its own and Ukrainian mine barriers along the Dvorichna-Lyman Pershy frontier and makes passages through them.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian forces are trying to break the sturdy defense of the Joint Forces in the area between Ivanivske and Khromove and push them out of Bakhmut;
• The Russian military is preparing for an offensive in the Kupyansk direction.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The Russian Fleet has 10 ships of various types at sea performing tasks south of the Crimean Peninsula. There are no Kalibr missile carriers.
• The naval component of the missile strike group on March 9 involved: “Admiral Makarov” frigate and two 21631 corvettes, which launched 20 “Kalibr” missiles from the waters of the northeastern part of the Black Sea;
• Most likely, the missile-carrying ships are currently at the base points and waiting to replenish missile stocks.
• The Russian Federation produces at most 20-30 Kalibr missiles monthly. The last delivery of such missiles (about 20 units) to Sevastopol occurred at the end of February; the next (up to 26 units) is possible in the second half of March. The Kalibr missiles are produced at the Joint-Stock Company “Opytnoe Konstruktorskoe Bureau “Novator” (Ekaterinburg).
• One patrol boat is on duty in the waters of the Sea of Azov.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. 13 aircraft were involved in monitoring the surface and air situation in the northwest part of the Black Sea water area (6 Su-27/30 aircraft from the Belbek Air Force Base, 2 Su-30 SM aircraft, 2 Su-24M aircraft, 2 MiG-29K aircraft from the Saki Air Force Base), as well as the Ka-31R radar patrol helicopter (from Kacha Air Force Base). Three flights of military transport aircraft of the Russian Air Force were made at Belbek Air Force Base, and one flight was made at Dzhankoy Air Force Base and Hvardiyske Air Force Base for the delivery of personnel.
• On March 8, the frigate “Admiral Kasatonov” and the medium sea tanker “Akademik Pashin” of the Northern Fleet passed the Strait of Gibraltar and left the waters of the Mediterranean Sea. Thus, the number of sea-based cruise missile carriers in the Mediterranean has decreased to two ships and one diesel-electric submarine. The total possible number of missiles is 20 units. Currently, the frigate “Admiral Hryhorovych”, the corvette “Orekhovo-Zuyevo”, and the submarine “Krasnodar” are located in the waters of the Mediterranean Sea. The frigate “Admiral Kasatonov” (16 cruise missiles of the “Onyx”/”Kalibr” sea-based type) has been in the waters of the Mediterranean Sea for over a year, since February 7, 2022.
• “The Grain initiative”. In the seven months of the Istanbul Agreements, 790 vessels have used the “grain corridor” in the Black Sea. The volume of grain shipments, such as corn, wheat and barley, exceeded 23.4 million tons. 40% of the grain was sent to Europe, 30% to Asia, 13% to Turkey, 12% to Africa, and 5% to the Middle East.

• Currently, Ukraine maintains contacts with the parties to the Istanbul Agreements to extend the agreements. Ukraine, the UN and Turkey are in favor of continuing the initiative.
• This week, a tripartite meeting occurred between Ukraine, the European Commission and Romania. The negotiations aim to coordinate efforts to improve export capacities through the Ukrainian and Romanian channels of the Danube River. During the meeting, representatives of Ukraine and Romania discussed the possibility of jointly measuring the depths of parts of the Danube River. The parties also discussed the improvement of navigation. In particular, improving the pilotage of ships on the common sector of the river should increase the number of ship calls to the ports of both countries.
• During the year of the full-scale war, the ports of “Izmail”, “Reni”, and “Ust-Dunaisk” tripled their cargo flow. Ukraine exported more than 17 million tons of cargo through the Danube port cluster. Only these ports are currently used to import the goods Ukraine needs.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.03.23

Personnel – almost 156,990 people (+870);

Tanks – 3,448 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 6,742 (+6);

Artillery systems – 2,475 (+10);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 491 (+3); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 256 (+2); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,337 (+6); Aircraft – 304 (+1);

Helicopters – 289 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,107 (+9); Intercepted cruise missiles – 907 (+34);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The Cabinet of Ministers appointed Iryna Vereshchuk, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories, as the head of the Coordination HQ for the Protection of Children’s Rights under Martial Law. The HQ is in charge of coordinating the government actions to integrate evacuated children in their new place of residence, monitoring the rights of IDP children, and coordinating measures for the return to Ukraine of children deported to the temporarily occupied territory, Russian territory or other countries.

State Concern “Ukroboronprom” has set the anti-corruption priority areas for 2023-2025 under the State Anti-Corruption Program, the company’s press service reported. “Ukroboronprom” will establish corporate governance in accordance with OECD standards, the system of internal control and risk management. The public will be involved in the analysis and elimination of corruption risks, commissioners for the prevention of corruption will be instituted, the processes of elimination and prevention of conflicts of interest will be improved, etc.

The Cabinet of Ministers adopted a protocol decision to speed up the construction of military engineering and technical fortifications for defense needs in certain regions of Ukraine.

International diplomatic aspect

The Ukrainian branch of the Russian Orthodox Church is to leave one of the most important religious sites – the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra. The National Reserve, which manages the state-owned UNESCO world heritage complex, informed the men’s monastery that the tenancy agreement would be terminated by the end of the month. Last year, the Ukrainian Security Service filed 52 criminal cases involving 55 clerics and banned 200 Russian clerics’ entrance into Ukraine. The Ukrainian branch of the Russian Orthodox Church was instrumental in spreading Kremlin’s propaganda, supporting occupation forces, and destabilizing the situation in Ukraine. The Kremlin’s nervous reaction is expected to follow, for it loses the long-term and important political tool. After the Ukrainian Orthodox Church received an autocephalous status, Moscow’s position as the largest Orthodox Church was shattered. Now, they’re losing a long-time monopoly over the most sacred religious site, after St. Sophia Cathedral, which is only occasionally used for religious purposes.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and President Emmanuel Macron agreed to coordinate further both the supply of weapons to Ukraine and the training of Ukrainian Marines. The first Patriot air defense system has reportedly been delivered to Ukraine.

The U.S. has sanctioned five Chinese companies and one individual for the “sale and shipment of thousands of aerospace components,” including parts that could be used to manufacture drones, to Tehran. Another bunch of sanctions were introduced against thirty-nine entities operating in Hong Kong, Singapore, and the UAE. Chinese state-owned defense contractor Poly Technologies sent at least a dozen shipments – including helicopter parts and air-to-ground radio equipment

– to a sanctioned Russian firm, according to a CNN investigation.

The U.S. leads the top three countries Russians have a negative attitude about, according to a Levada Centre poll. With 73%, the United States is ahead of Ukraine (69%) and the E.U. (69%). It’s quite an improvement in the U.S. image, for after the illegal annexation of Crimea, 81% of Russians had a negative view of the U.S. Older Russians hate America more: 55 y.o. and older lead the list with 83%, followed by 40-54 y.o. (72%) and 29-39 y.o. (65%). The lowest hate rate is among 18-24 y.o., though it’s more than half of the respondents (57%). Only 14% of Russians have a favorable view of the U.S., 18% of the E.U., and 17% of Ukraine. Meanwhile, China caught the hearts and minds of 85% of Russians and left behind India (80%) and Turkey (61%). Only 6% of Russians view China negatively, while 5% of India and, surprisingly, 22% of Turkey.

Russia, relevant news

The founder of Wagner PMC, Evgeniy Prigozhin, announced the opening of recruiting centers in 42 regions of the Russian Federation. Fighters would be recruited from sports centers and martial arts clubs, he added. At the same time, Prigozhin said he had been cut off from all special communications that allowed him to ask for ammunition directly. He said the only remaining way to do so is to use media, and stressed that this is what he intends to do.

Russia’s international reserves decreased by $ 2.3 billion in the week from February 24 to March 3, Russian Central Bank said.

The French chain of supermarkets “Auchan” is opening a new store in Russia, which will sell almost exclusively products under its own brand. Thus, Auchan doubles down on its presence in Russia, while Western business mostly avoids this market because of the war in Ukraine. “Auchan” stated that the main goal of its presence in Russia is to provide the population with quality products at affordable prices.

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