CDS Daily brief (11.03.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Representatives of ICRC managed to visit the places of detention of Ukrainian POWs in Donetsk and Horlivka.
• “Ukrenergo” reported that the energy system of Ukraine was restored after a massive missile attack on March 9.
• Russians shelled 9 Ukrainian Oblasts on March 10; civilians were killed and wounded.
• Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russian troops have fired 821 cruise and ballistic missiles into Ukraine, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said.
• An appeal to the President of Ukraine to rename Russia to Muscovy gained more than 25,000 votes. Volodymyr Zelensky forwarded the question to the government.
• 28,000 Ukrainian volunteers have applied to participate in the “Offensive Guard”, and almost all units have already been formed.

Military:

• The enemy focus on conducting offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions;
• The enemy will try to break the stability of the defense of the Ukrainian Joint Forces in the area between Ivanovske and Khromove and push them out of Bakhmut;
• The enemy continues preparations for the resumption of active offensive operations in Bilohorivka – Serebryanka – Siversk to eliminate the Bilohorivka-Siversk salient of the Defense Forces, which is impeding the enemy’s offensive both in the area of Kreminna and north of Bakhmut;
• The enemy command prepares to build up pressure in the Lyman direction.
• In the case of taking over Bakhmut, the enemy would advance on Siversk to create favorable conditions for a further attack on the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

International:

• Canada joins the U.S. in banning aluminum and steel products imported from Russia.
• The Pope offers his “peace service,” believes the Russian ambassador, and is willing to visit both Moscow and Kyiv, or neither.

Humanitarian aspect:

POWs

According to the Coordinating Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, during the last month, representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross managed to visit the places of detention of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Donetsk and Horlivka, temporarily occupied by the Russians. Now they are trying to get to the POWs in Luhansk Oblast.

During the meeting with the families of servicemen of the “Azov”, the Coordinating HQ representatives noted the Ukrainian side does not know the place of detention of all Azov

soldiers. “After the terrorist attack in Olenivka, they were transported to different camps and isolated from other Ukrainian prisoners”.

The Coordinating HQ emphasized that the work is not stopped regarding the search for a third country that could act as an intermediary in exchanging “Azov” POWs. “We have certain hopes for Turkey because this country has real leverage over the Russian Federation. In addition, there was already a precedent for Ankara’s participation in the exchange,” the report says.

Russian attacks

According to the consolidated report of the Oblast Military Administrations, the Russians attacked nine regions of Ukraine on March 10.

Consequences of enemy shelling:

• At 5 a.m., air defense forces shot down enemy aerial objects in the Shostky district, Sumy Oblast. Also, in the morning, there were shellings of the Seredyno-Budsk community.
• The occupiers shelled populated areas of Kherson Oblast 71 times. As a result, 3 killed and 5 wounded civilians were reported. In Kherson, enemy shells damaged private and apartment buildings. On March 11, the occupiers shelled Kherson again. A shell fell near a supermarket, 3 killed civilians were reported. The number of wounded is being specified.
• On March 10, enemy shelling killed 2 civilians in the village of Krasnohorivka, Donetsk Oblast. Another 14 people in the region were injured. Kurakhove suffered 2 massive shellings yesterday afternoon and 3 at night. 14 high-rise buildings and power lines were damaged. Maryinka, Katerynivka and Georgiyivka were shelled at night. Since the morning of March 11, the Russian military has shelled Kostyantynivka five times, resulting in casualties and injuries, said Pavlo Kyrylenko, the head of the Donetsk OMA. According to him, the shelling is so chaotic that it is impossible to understand where the enemy is aiming and which city area it chooses [to hit]. The Russians hit both the outskirts of the city and the center.
• On March 10, the National Police received 19 reports about the destruction of civilian objects in the Zaporizhzhia, Polohy and Vasylivka districts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. On March 11, the Russians attacked the critical infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia. According to preliminary data, the attack on an unnamed “life-support facility” was carried out by S- 300 missiles. As a result of the shelling, a fire broke out. Information about possible victims is not yet available.
• During the past day, the enemy continued massive shelling of the border territories of the Kharkiv, Kupyansk (1 wounded) and Chuhuyiv districts of Kharkiv Oblast. In Vilkhuvatka, a center for socio-psychological rehabilitation of children and a school were damaged. About 10 private residential buildings were destroyed.
• Yesterday, the enemy hit the water area of the Ochakiv community, as well as the village in the Kutsurub community of Mykolayiv Oblast. The administrative building, residential buildings, and farm buildings were damaged. No casualties were reported.

Evacuation

As of March 11, 18 children remain in Avdiivka, said Vitaliy Barabash, head of the Avdiyivka military administration. “For about ten days, we have an evacuation every day, and children leave every day. Now we have 18 children in the city; two weeks ago, there were 47. Therefore, there is a positive dynamic,” said Barabash. He noted that practically no people would leave in January- February, and only 50 people were evacuated. [In comparison] 25 were evacuated in just 10 days in March.

Energy

The company “Ukrenergo” reported on the restoration of the energy system of Ukraine after a massive missile attack on March 9.

• In Kharkiv, one of the thermal power plants partially started working after an emergency repair. Also, one of the objects of the backbone networks is working again. The city’s critical infrastructure is fully connected to power.
• In Zhytomyr Oblast, part of the population remains without electricity; there are hourly blackout schedules.
• Energy consumption restrictions were not applied in other regions, and no limits were introduced. The generated electricity is enough to cover the needs of all consumers.
• The power supply was fully restored in Kyiv after the Russian missile attack on March 9, energy company DTEK reports. Stabilization shutdowns are no longer applied in the city. However, the company notes that the situation in the power system remains “difficult”. In addition, Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klytchko said the centralized heat supply had been fully restored.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions;
• The enemy will try to break the stability of the defense of the Ukrainian Joint Forces in the area between Ivanovske and Khromove and push them out of Bakhmut;
• The enemy command continues preparations for the resumption of active offensive operations in the direction of Bilohorivka – Serebryanka – Siversk in order to eliminate the Bilohorivka-Siversk salient of the Defense Forces, which is impeding the enemy’s offensive both in the area of Kreminna and north of Bakhmut;
• The enemy command prepares to build up pressure in the Lyman direction.

Battleline:

• Units of the Defense Forces repelled more than 100 enemy attacks in various directions.
• The enemy unsuccessfully carried out offensive actions in the areas of Hryanykivka, Masyutivka, Nevske, Kreminna, Bilohorivka, Spirne and Fedorivka in Luhansk Oblast; Zaliznyanske, Paraskoviivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Bakhmut, Bohdanivka, Ivanovske, Kamianka, Avdiyivka, Tonenke, Severne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk Oblast.

Change in enemy disposition:

• The 1007th motorized rifle regiment of the Territorial Forces of the RF Armed Forces left the composition of the “Belgorod” Operational Grouping to the concentration area of Sychivka village (Luhansk region) and became part of the 1st reserve line of the enemy grouping “West”.
• The enemy command seeks to restore the bridge crossings over the Siversky Donets River in the area of Novodruzheska, using the 37th separate railway brigade and the 11th separate engineering brigade of the Southern Military District, in order to ensure the regrouping of the 7th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd army corps, which is concentrating on the Lyman direction.
• The 31st separate airborne assault brigade, previously in the reserve of the “Center” troops grouping, arrived in the Pishchane village area.
• The units of the 120th artillery brigade of the Central Military District are concentrated in the Chervonopopivka area after the restoration of combat capability.

Escalation indicators: not identified

Possible operation situation developments:

In the case of taking over Bakhmut, the enemy grouping will deploy and advance on Siversk to create favorable conditions for a further attack on the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The enemy has five ships of different classes at sea, performing tasks south of the Crimean peninsula. Among them is one Kalibr missile carrier, the “Grayvoron” corvette of project 21631 (near Cape Foros), which can carry up to 8 missiles.
• Other Kalibr missile carriers are currently at the Sevastopol base to replenish missile ammunition.
• One patrol boat is on duty in the Sea of Azov waters.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske. 10 aircraft were involved in monitoring the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea water area (6 Su-27/30 aircraft from Belbek airfield, 2 Su30 CM aircraft and 2 MiG-29K aircraft from Saki airfield). Two flights of military transport aircraft of the Russian Air Force were conducted to Dzhankoy airfield to deliver personnel.
• The enemy continues shelling the positions of Ukrainian units and civilian objects in Kherson Oblast and takes measures to prevent Ukrainian troops from entrenching themselves on the islands at the mouth of the Dnipro River. It continues the equipment of defense areas on the left bank.
• Over the past day, in the interests of the Russian Federation, 23 ships passed through the Kerch-Yenikal Strait to the Sea of Azov, 7 of them continued their movement in the direction of the Bosporus Strait. 22 vessels passed into the Black Sea, and 3 of them continued their movement toward the strait. Russia continues to violate the 1974 International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) by turning off automatic identification systems (AIS) on civilian vessels in the Sea of Azov.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.03.23

Personnel – almost 158,000 people (+1,010);

Tanks – 3,458 (+10);

Armored combat vehicles – 6,762 (+20);

Artillery systems – 2,483 (+8);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 493 (+2); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 257 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,344 (+7); Aircraft – 304 (0);

Helicopters – 289 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,108 (+1); Intercepted cruise missiles – 907 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Volodymyr Zelensky implemented the decision of the National Security Council to introduce sanctions against bookmakers and lotteries that have ties to Russia. In total, 120 people and 287 companies related to the gambling business were subject to restrictions. Sanctions against companies related to the gambling business, introduced on March 10, 2023, close schemes worth tens of billions of hryvnias, President Zelensky said in an evening video message.

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russian troops have fired 821 rockets into Ukraine, Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov said at a meeting with his counterpart from Norway, Bjorn Arild Gram. Since October 2022, Russian troops have carried out 15 massive rocket attacks, Reznikov said. Within each, cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as Iranian drones in the amount of 50 to 90 units, were launched at Ukraine.

An appeal to the President of Ukraine to rename Russia to Muscovy gained more than 25,000 votes. Volodymyr Zelensky forwarded the question to the government. According to the author, Muscovy is the historical name of Russia, which was found on “many historical maps” in the 16th- 19th centuries, after Peter I proclaimed the state the Russian Empire. The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova reacted with “Bunkerer [one who hides in a bunker] every day proves our case. Here is another piece of evidence of an attempt to create an “anti- Russia” of Ukraine.” She used the term “bunkerer,” initially coined by Russians for Vladimir Putin for his fear of COVID-19 and hypothetical attempts of being assassinated. It is yet another failed mimicry, for Zelensky is the opposite of this notion. He has visited the frontline many times while Putin allows a limited number of trusted people around him in secure locations and is said to use a double. The very idea of renaming Russia, at least for official use in Ukraine, makes sense since rulers of the Grand Dutchy of Moscow, Muscovy Kingdom, hijacked the name. Contrary to Russian claims, Moscow has never been a part of medieval [Kyiv] Rus; thus, Russians can’t trace their statehood right to Kyiv of the IX century. By the way, the Russian Federation has an alternative name, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, which is stated in Article 23 of the U.N.

Charter, giving Moscow a permanent seat at the Security Council. Such a metamorphose is based on the blatant Charter’s violation, for none of the U.N. member-states voted.

Since February, 28,000 Ukrainian volunteers have applied to participate in the “Offensive Guard”, and almost all units have already been formed, said the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Ihor Klymenko. “First of all, applications went through the Centers for providing administrative services and through the corresponding website. Of course, not everyone gets into these divisions because the selection is tough enough. We have already started training almost all units at the training grounds of our country, and not all of them can withstand there,” Klymenko emphasized. He noted that the training would continue as long as necessary to produce combat- ready units of the National Guard, State Border Service and National Police, all now called the “Offensive Guard”.

International diplomatic aspect

Canada joins the U.S. in banning aluminum and steel products imported from Russia. The imports were worth almost $180 million in 2021. Russia is the third largest aluminum producer (with some 3,700 mt in 2021), though it’s far behind China (40,000 mt). Last year, Canada imported 2,500 mt of unwrought aluminum and 36,000 mt of steel products, while the U.S. – 276,760 mt (or 8% of Russia’s export) of aluminum. “Rusal”, the Russian aluminum giant, revenue from export to the U.S. in 2021 was $741 million (6% of the company’s total revenue). So, the move will blow the Russian industry while may cause a rise in global prices as it happened when the first sanctions were imposed.

No Vatican peace plan exists, but the Pope offers his “peace service.” “I don’t know if this is genocide or not; they have to study it, people have to define it well, but it is certainly not an ethic of war to which we are accustomed,” Francis said. He recalled Lavrov’s rejected appeal to facilitate peace in the first days of the all-out invasion. However, the Pope is of high regard to the Russian ambassador to the Holy See, who, Francis believes, knows the conflict well because he is the son of a Ukrainian mother and a Russian father. Though not welcomed in Moscow, the Pope is willing to visit both capitals or neither.

Russia, relevant news

According to the Bloomberg, the EU will ask third countries for information on trade flows relating to hundreds of goods subject to sanctions and technologies that can be used for military purposes. As part of several sanctions packages, the EU has banned exporting many goods and technologies to Russia. However, at the same time, writes Bloomberg, there was an increase in imports of European products, for example, semiconductors subject to sanctions, to Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan and some other countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It is assumed that through these countries, there is a parallel import of sanctioned goods to Russia.

The UK government has asked key sponsors of the Olympics to oppose the admission of Russian and Belarusian athletes to the 2024 Games in Paris, The Guardian reports. In January, the

International Olympic Committee called for the admission of athletes from Russia and Belarus to the Games in Paris in a neutral status, subject to many conditions, including if they do not support the war. Ukraine opposes this, and high-ranking representatives of 34 countries also support the ban on admission.

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