CDS Daily brief (12.03.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Russians shelled 7 Ukrainian Oblasts on March 11; civilians were killed and wounded.
• The SBU confirmed the identity of the soldier who was shot after saying, “Glory to Ukraine!”. Oleksandr Matsievskyi was a sniper of the 163rd battalion of the 119th separate brigade of the Territorial Forces of Chernihiv Oblast.

Military:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions;
• The enemy considers actions in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions as promising in terms of advancing to the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts; it continues to build up its offensive capabilities in these directions, which is confirmed by intensified regrouping and strengthening of its tactical groups of troops;
• Enemy “West” and “Center” groupings of troops, advancing on their adjacent flanks, are trying to create prerequisites for the elimination of the Siversk ledge of the Defense Forces;
• The intensification of reconnaissance and sabotage activities of the consolidated detachment of the enemy’s 3rd separate SOF brigade is noted in the directions Ploschanka – Makiyivka, Chervonopopivka – Terny, and Zhytlivka – Terny (Lyman direction).

Possible operation situation developments:

• In the short term, the enemy will concentrate its efforts in the areas between Bakhmut and Bilohorivka and in the Kreminna-Lyman direction;
• The enemy will try to develop an attack on Kupyansk from the north.
• In the case of the success of the offensive on the Siversk ledge, the enemy will be able to make close approaches to the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration, which will have a significant impact on the further strategy for both sides.

International:

• The presidents of Ukraine and Czechia discussed bilateral issues, including security cooperation. Switzerland disposed of old but functioning air defense systems, APCs, and artillery systems that could have helped Ukraine.
• The U.S. strategic bomber B-52H Stratofortress flew over the Baltics to get the deterrence message through to the Kremlin.
• Three men are in custody in Estonia for acting in Russia’s interest. At the same time, the Moldovan Police detained 54 people who are believed to assist the Russian intelligence services’ destabilization efforts.

Humanitarian aspect:

Russian attacks

According to the consolidated report of the Oblast Military Administrations, the Russians attacked seven regions of Ukraine on March 11.

Consequences of enemy shelling as of the morning of March 12

• Occupiers attacked the Kherson Oblast 29 times; 3 killed and 3 wounded civilians were reported. In Kherson, the enemy attacked the territory of the utility company, private and apartment residential buildings. On Sunday, March 12, Russian troops shelled the residential sector of Bilozerka village; a girl was injured.
• At night, the enemy shelled Ochakiv, Mykolayiv Oblast. Private houses and high-rise buildings were damaged. No victims were reported.
• Yesterday, National Police received 6 reports about the destruction of civilian objects and homes in Zaporizhzhia, Polohy and Vasylivka districts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• On March 11, enemy shelling killed 2 civilians in Donetsk Oblast, in Kostyantynivka and Tonenke. 4 more people in the region were injured. 41 civilian objects were destroyed and damaged – 27 residential buildings, a tuberculosis dispensary, an employment center, shops, a factory workshop, a warehouse, a railway track, power lines, a garage, and transport.
• The enemy continues to attack villages and towns in the Kharkiv, Chuhuyiv and Kupyansk districts of Kharkiv Oblast. There are damaged private residential buildings and farm buildings in Zapadne village.

Operational situation

General conclusion:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions;
• The enemy continues to consider active actions in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions as promising in terms of advancing to the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts; it continues to build up its offensive capabilities in these directions, which is confirmed by intensified regrouping and strengthening of its tactical groups of troops;
• Enemy command of the “West” and “Center” groupings of troops, advancing on their adjacent flanks, are trying to create prerequisites for the elimination of the Siversk salient of the Defense Forces;
• In the Lyman direction, the intensification of reconnaissance and sabotage activities of the consolidated detachment of the enemy’s 3rd separate SOF brigade is noted in the directions Ploschanka – Makiyivka, Chervonopopivka – Terny, and Zhytlivka – Terny.

Battleline:

• Units of the Defense Forces repelled more than 92 enemy attacks in various directions.
• The enemy unsuccessfully carried out an offensive in Kamianka, Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka and Maryinka areas of Donetsk Oblast and continued the assault on Bakhmut.
• The enemy attacked in the direction of Hryanykivka – Masyutivka, with the forces of the motorized rifle platoon from the 138th separate motorized rifle brigade without the use of armored vehicles; and in the direction of Horobyivka – Masyutivka with the forces of the motorized rifle platoon of the 25th separate motorized rifle brigade.

Change in enemy disposition:

• After the raid organized by representatives of the Russian Volunteer Corps to the Bryansk region, the enemy command reinforced the “Bryansk” Operational Group with the 16th, 17th, 18th and 19th separate special battalions. The battalions are concentrated, respectively, in the areas of Rohov, Elyonka, Podlesnye Novoselki, and Aleshkovychi villages.
• In the Mozhnyakivka village area, the reserve C2 post of the 20th Army is being deployed. In the forward C2 post of the 20th Army in Krasnorichenske village, the 9th separated C2 brigade has deployed an additional satellite communication channel.
• In the Novovodyanе area, the enemy concentrated a joint BARS detachment to reinforce the 752nd motorized rifle regiment of the 3rd motorized rifle division of the 20th Army, which is attacking Makiyivka.
• The rear area was deployed in Pishchane village for the recovery of units of the 35th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 41st Army after the battles in the areas of the Nevske, Terny and Yampolivka. Marching companies from the number of mobilized units totaling up to 120-150 soldiers arrive in the district.
• The UAV company of the 21st separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army received 2 “Orlan-30” UAV complexes. This unit will be used to control and adjust artillery fire in the Kreminna-Lyman direction.
• In the offensive lane of the 3rd motorized rifle division of the 20th Army, a unit of the “Storm” type from the 237th tank regiment was deployed into battle. During the last two weeks, it was restoring its combat capability after the battles in the Lyman direction and the losses caused by the Defense Forces.
• Advanced units of the 3rd motorized rifle division received up to 8 ACVs after repair.

Escalation indicators: not identified

Possible operation situation developments:

• In the short term, the enemy will concentrate its efforts in the areas between Bakhmut and Bilohorivka and in the Kreminna-Lyman direction;
• The enemy will try to develop an attack on Kupyansk from the north, for which they will try to take control of Masyutivka and Synkivka, and to advance to the left bank of the Oskil river west and northwest of Lyman Pershyi. Further on, they will try to advance to the Kucherivka-Petropavlivka line with an exit to the northeastern outskirts of Kupyansk and cut the R-07 highway east of Kupyansk;
• In the case of the success of the offensive on the Siversk ledge, the enemy will be able to make close approaches to the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration, which will have a significant impact on the further combat strategy for both sides.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• Due to stormy weather conditions, the enemy returned part of the ships to their base points. It has four ships of different classes at sea, which perform reconnaissance and search and rescue tasks south of the Crimean peninsula.

• All Kalibr missile carriers are now at the Sevastopol, Feodosia, and Kerch bases to replenish missile ammunition.
• 7 large amphibious ships of the Russian Federation are in Sevastopol (3 are under repair), 1 large amphibious ship entered the port of Feodosia, and 4 are in Novorossiysk.
• One patrol ship is on duty in the waters of the Sea of Azov.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske. One military transport aircraft of the Russian Air Force flew to the Belbek air base to deliver personnel. Il-22 relay aircraft, on duty in the airspace over the Sea of Azov, were involved in ensuring the stability of the communication system.
• No signs of the formation of offensive groups were noted on the territory of the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova. Armed formations of the self-proclaimed Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (“PMR”) are on “Constant” combat readiness. The Russian Federation units on the “PMR” territory are on duty in an enhanced mode. The main activity aims to ensure the protection of military facilities, first of all, the 1411th artillery depot (Kolbasna village) and the Tiraspol airfield.
• The enemy continues to maintain reserves in the north of the occupied Crimea to strengthen its groupings in the occupied south of Ukraine. A field park of military equipment with more than 700 pieces of equipment has been deployed in the Medvedivka area (Crimea). There are signs of accumulation of military equipment in the area, 30-40 pieces daily. The local population of Crimea informs about the enemy’s construction of defensive fortifications in the area of Armyansk and Dzhankoy.
• The occupying authorities of Crimea reported on the completion of the installation of the first (of the two damaged) railway spans of the Crimean bridge. It is planned to complete the work on the bridge’s restoration by July 1, 2023. Thus, the Crimean bridge will be withdrawn from regular operation for 9 months.
• Four LPG tankers have been unable to leave the Sea of Azov for several months. The situation is associated with restrictions on the passage under the Crimean bridge, which are connected with its repair. All stranded vessels fly foreign flags. The three tankers, Summer, Gas Houston and Premier, loaded at the terminal in the Russian port of Temryuk at the end of December and have been unable to leave the Sea of Azov since then. There are 8,700 tons of autogas on board the vessels anchored near the Kerch Strait.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.03.23

Personnel – almost 159,090 people (+1,090);

Tanks – 3,466 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 6,769 (+7);

Artillery systems – 2,487 (+4);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 493 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 259 (+2); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,348 (+4); Aircraft – 304 (0);

Helicopters – 289 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,108 (0); Intercepted cruise missiles – 907 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The Security Service of Ukraine finally confirmed the identity of the soldier who was shot after saying, “Glory to Ukraine!”. Oleksandr Matsievskyi was a sniper of the 163rd battalion of the 119th separate brigade of the Territorial Forces of Chernihiv Oblast. Oleksandr was called up for military service in March 2022. Since the end of December, he was considered missing near Krasna Hora in Donetsk Oblast. As it was established, Oleksandr Matsievskyi was shot on December 30, 2022. His body was returned home in February 2023. Zelensky posthumously awarded him with the title of Hero of Ukraine.

International diplomatic aspect

While the Ukrainian President congratulated his newly inaugurated Czech colleague and discussed security cooperation (the Republic provided Ukraine with €0,46 billion in assistance, which put it in the top ten list of assistance providers as per GDP), the Swiss government (23 points behind Czechia in the list) is planning to utilize old but still functioning and effective Rapier surface-to-air air defense system instead of transferring it to a partner country and then to Ukraine. Last week, a barrage of more than eighty Russian missiles and many smaller drones hit Ukraine, stressing the country’s air defense. In addition, more than 100 M109 artillery systems and a large number of M113 APCs are being disposed of as well. Meanwhile, Luxembourg has donated fourteen Venadi armored ambulances to Ukraine.

The U.S. strategic bomber B-52H Stratofortress along with the Polish interceptors took part in joint maneuvers some 200 km off Saint Petersburg. “This is an important part of the interoperability exercise. Together, we care for the security of NATO’s eastern flank,” Poland’s defense minister twitted. The Russian military claimed they knew about the flight, tracked the bomber, and were ready to respond immediately. The exercise’s most important part was getting the deterrence message through to the Kremlin.

Estonian court ruled to take two Estonian and a Russian citizen into custody for two months. They’re accused of establishing or maintaining relations with a foreign state [Russia], a foreign organization, or a person acting on behalf of a foreign state to commit a crime. One of the perpetrators visited Russia-occupied territories and spread pro-Kremlin narratives. Meanwhile, Moldovan police detained fifty-four people engaged in protest actions in the country’s capital. The chief of the National Police stated that the Russian intelligence services had formed and trained ten groups of ten people to organize riots during the pro-Russian demonstrations. There has been numerous footages of Russian citizens pretending to be Moldovans outraged by the government; older people and “titushki”, young declassed elements paid to participate in riots, were brought to the capital by columns of buses. Russia has been trying to destabilize a social and political situation in neighboring Ukraine country, employing techniques similar to the ones Viktor Yanukovych and his Russian advisors used against Maidan in 2014

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