CDS Daily brief (13.03.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Over the past day, the Russian forces shelled seven Ukrainian Oblast;
• Evacuation of civilians from the areas with active hostilities continues;
• 366 Ukrainian children are considered missing, and 10,383 children have been found;
• The number of vaccinated 1 y.o. babies in Ukraine decreased by 10% in 2022 compared to 2021;
• 64% of Ukrainians are convinced that it is necessary to try to liberate the entire territory of Ukraine, including Crimea, even if it means that the war will go longer and western support will decrease;
• Ukraine’s real GDP decreased by 31.4% in the IV quarter of 2022 compared to the IV quarter of 2021;
• Only 20% of cultivated land has been sown in the occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Military:

• The Russian military continues to consider active actions in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions as promising in terms of entering the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. It continues to build up its offensive capabilities in these directions.
• In the short term, the enemy will concentrate its efforts in the areas between Bakhmut and Bilohorivka and in the Kreminna-Lyman direction.
• The number of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine has reached 159,800;

Sea:

• Negotiations between UN officials and the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation regarding the possible extension of the agreement on the safe export of grain from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine began in Geneva.

International:

• The U.S. and U.K. are planning defense expenditure increases and securing further support for Ukraine ($6 billion and at least £2.3 billion).
• Norway will deliver additional air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine.
• The E.U. extended sanctions against Russia for another half of a year. The U.S. is doubling down on sanctions enforcement, loopholes elimination, and mechanism to transfer frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
• The ICC is soon to seek the first arrest warrants against Russian nationals who committed crimes related to the abduction of children from Ukraine to Russia and the targeting of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.
• President Putin’s spokesperson Dmitriy Peskov said that Russia’s goals in Ukraine at this point could be achieved only by military means.

Humanitarian aspect:

According to the “Children of War” government portal data, as of March 13, 2023, in Ukraine, 366 children are considered missing, and 10,383 children have been found.

Since the beginning of the large-scale military invasion of the Russian Federation, 332,030 explosive objects have been neutralized on Ukrainian territory as well as 2,891 kg of explosives, including 2,191 aerial bombs. The territory with an area of about 80 thousand 337 hectares was surveyed, the State Emergency Service reported.

In 2022, the average number of vaccinated children aged 1 year in Ukraine fell by 10% compared to 2021, the Ministry of Health reported. According to last year’s results, Ukraine’s vaccination level remains lower than the World Health Organization recommended.

Evacuation

176 people were evacuated from Donetsk Oblast on March 12 with the help of the police. Since the beginning of the mandatory evacuation, more than 50,200 people have been evacuated, including 6,694 children and 2,418 people with disabilities.

In Kharkiv Oblast, 300 people were evacuated from territories under daily enemy shelling over the past week. According to the head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, Oleh Synehubov, the best effort is made to evacuate entire families.

Russian attacks

The Russian Federation army shelled seven Ukraine regions over the past day.

• In Sumy Oblast, the Russian forces shelled the village of Znob-Novgorodske. A rocket attack was carried out at the vocational and agricultural lyceum area. 1 civilian was killed, 4 people were injured.
• At least 9 towns and villages came under Russian fire in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 4 reports of damaged property were filed.
• Russian shelling was reported in the Kupyansk and Slobozhanskiy directions of Kharkiv Oblast. There were no victims or damages.
• In Luhansk Oblast, the enemy carried out artillery shelling in the districts of Novoselivske, Makiyivka, Nevske, Dibrova and Bilohorivka. The situation in the region remains tense.
• Over the past day, Russian troops attacked Donetsk Oblast 34 times, damaging 11 towns and villages, injuring 7 civilians, and damaging 31 civilian objects.
• Around 8 a.m. on March 13, Russian troops shelled one of the villages of the Kutsurub community of Mykolaiv Oblast, killing 2 people and injuring 3 others, including a child.
• The Russian forces attacked Kherson Oblast 56 times, firing more than 330 shells. Peaceful towns and villages were shelled with various types of weapons – mortars, MLRS, artillery, tanks and UAVs. One person was injured as a result of Russian military strikes.

Occupied territories

According to Melitopol mayor Ivan Fedorov, farmers sowed only 20% of the cultivated area in the temporarily occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Farmers do not sow because all last year’s production was bought from them at a price two or three times lower than the cost price. The highest price of grain was 50 dollars per ton. In addition, part of the fields was dug up with trenches and mined; many farmers left the occupation, and their equipment was stolen.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The main efforts of the Russian military are concentrated on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions.
• The Russian forces were not active in the Kupyansk direction, which may indicate preparations for an offensive;
• The Russian military continues to consider active actions in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions as promising in terms of entering the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. It continues to build up its offensive capabilities in these directions.

Battleline:

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 102 Russian attacks in different directions;
• The Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions near Dvorichna, Nevske, Chervonopopivka, Kreminna, Dibrova, Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske of Luhansk Oblast and Vasyukivka, Minkivka, Orihove-Vasylivka, Ivanovske, Kamianka, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Severne, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, Pobyeda of Donetsk Oblast.
• The “Wagner” PMC assault units advance from several directions, trying to break through the defenses of the Ukrainian troops and advance to the central areas of Bakhmut.

Change in enemy disposition: no changes are noted.

Escalation indicators: not detected

Possible operation situation developments:

• In the short term, the enemy will concentrate its efforts in the areas between Bakhmut and Bilohorivka and in the Kreminna-Lyman direction.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• Due to stormy weather conditions, the Russian Fleet returned part of the ships to their base points. It has 7 ships of various types at sea performing tasks south of the Crimean Peninsula. Among them are two surface ships and a Kalibr missile submarine. In total, they can have up to 20 Kalibr missiles on board.
• All 12 large amphibious ships of the Russian Federation are based in Sevastopol, Feodosia and Novorossiysk.
• One patrol ship is on duty in the waters of the Sea of Azov.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. A total of 16 combat sorties were made over the past day. Today, the activity of Russian tactical aviation has intensified over the waters of the Sea of Azov. The activity of Russian reconnaissance UAVs is possible.

“The Grain initiative”.

• Negotiations between UN officials and the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation regarding the possible extension of the agreement on the safe export of grain from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine began in Geneva. The Black Sea Grain Initiative aims to prevent a global food crisis by allowing Ukrainian grain, blocked by the Russian invasion, to be safely exported from three ports. The grain agreement was established in July 2022 and was extended once for 120 days in November 2022. Its current validity expires on March 18. Moscow has already said it would agree to an extension only if restrictions on its own exports were lifted. Russian officials say that while the country’s agricultural exports have not been directly restricted by the West, sanctions on its payment, logistics and insurance industries have created a barrier to the ability to export its own grain and fertilizer. UN trade representative Rebecca Greenspan and aid chief Martin Griffiths arrived at the UN’s European headquarters in Geneva Monday morning without comment.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 13.03.23

Personnel – almost 159,800 people (+710);

Tanks – 3,474 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 6,774 (+5);

Artillery systems – 2,503 (+16);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 493 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 259 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,354 (+66); Aircraft – 304 (0);

Helicopters – 289 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,109 (+1); Intercepted cruise missiles – 907 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

64% of Ukrainians are convinced that it is necessary to try to liberate the entire territory of Ukraine, including Crimea, even if it means that the war will go longer and western support will decrease, according to the results of a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, conducted on February 22 – March 6.

According to the results of this year’s Central Banking Awards, the National Bank of Ukraine was recognized as the Central Bank of the Year. This year, international experts highly praised the comprehensive efforts of the National Bank team, which ensured the stability and continuity of the country’s financial system in the unprecedentedly difficult conditions of a full-scale war.

Ukraine’s real GDP decreased by 4.7% in the IV quarter of 2022 compared to the previous quarter and by 31.4% compared to the IV quarter of 2021, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine informed.

International diplomatic aspect

The Biden Administration’s national defense budget request hit $886 billion, which is a 3.2% increase, though, with a 5% inflation, it means a cut in real terms. The proposal includes an additional $6 billion for further assistance to Ukraine and other countries threatened by Russia.

“It [the war] is far too fluid for us to be putting anything now projecting into 24 what the situation might be,” a senior Defense Department official explained the reason behind not increasing support for Ukraine from the previous budget ($300 million under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative). “We would expect to handle that [necessity to increase assistance] by contingencies, contingency or supplemental funding, which is the way that every emergent operation has been handled for about 50 consecutive years.” Over two-thirds of Americans (65%) would support aid to Ukraine even if the conflict is prolonged, while a third (31%) want the conflict to end quickly, even if Russia keeps the [annexed] territory, according to a Gallup poll of January 2023. There’s bipartisan support for the first scenario, with democrats leading the way (81%) while the Republicans way behind (53%). Though there are loud voices of far left on the streets and right populists in Congress to throw Ukraine under the bus, the leadership and majority of Congressmen and Senators favor continued support. The United Kingdom will also ramp up defense spending by $6 billion, promising to keep Ukraine’s support level at least the same (£2.3 billion).

Norway will transfer missile launchers, fire control systems, and missiles for NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine.

The E.U. renewed restrictive measures against Russia (1,473 individuals and 205 entities) for another six months. Meanwhile, the U.S. doubled down the efforts to seize the property of Russian-sanctioned billionaires, expanding financial penalties on sanction evasion facilitators and closing legal loopholes. So far, some $58 billion worth of sanctioned assets have been frozen worldwide. The Justice Department’s KleptoCapture task force is working on “obtaining authorization to transfer certain forfeited funds to the State Department” to give this money to Ukraine. The first tranche of $5.4 billion is being worked out.

It has been a year since prosecutor Karim Khan launched an investigation into possible war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide. The International Criminal Court (ICC) is expected to seek the first arrest warrants against Russian nationals who committed crimes related to the abduction of children from Ukraine to Russia and the targeting of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. The Ukrainian case might be unique in several aspects. Firstly, it pushed international bodies to speed up the processes and deliver the first results much earlier than in previous cases. Secondly, it will set a precedent of persecuting officials of the nuclear power state, hopefully including the masterminds of the aggressive war and genocide – Vladimir Putin and his lieutenants. Thirdly, cases are being considered while the war is still ongoing and may not result in a change in the criminal regime in Moscow. However, any success in this way will strengthen the international institutions responsible for bringing justice and will send a clear message to rogue and authoritarian regimes across the globe that even nuclear weapons won’t secure criminals from facing justice.

Russia, relevant news

Russia continues to tighten its security. Amendments to the law on Government Secrets banning top security clearance for people with bank accounts and real estate abroad were tabled at the Russian Duma.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation included cars of 12 foreign brands, home appliances, beauty products, IKEA furniture, etc. in the list of parallel imports. The document was sent for approval to the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation, a source told “RIA Novosti”. This means the goods will be imported into the Russian Federation without the intellectual property owner’s consent.

Russian law enforcement agencies claim that the total number of refugees who arrived in the Russian Federation from the territory of Ukraine and Donbas since February last year exceeded

5.4 million people, including 744,000 children, TASS reports. Russian media and government agencies refer to Ukrainian refugees as internally displaced persons.

President Putin’s spokesperson Dmitriy Peskov said that Russia’s goals in Ukraine at this point could be achieved only by military means.

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