CDS Daily brief (24.03.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• During the last week, 1 Ukrainian child died, and 7 were injured from the Russian attacks on Ukraine. Today Ukraine returned home seven children from Kherson Oblast, whom Russian occupiers separated from their families for almost half a year.
• Ukraine unilaterally transferred to Russia all severely wounded POWs captured since the beginning of the full-scale war in accordance with international humanitarian law. At the same time, Russia continues to hold captive Ukrainian citizens who should be returned by repatriation.
• The UN recorded more than 600 cases of abductions and detentions of civilians by the Russian military.
• The Russian forces attacked 10 Oblasts of Ukraine on March 23 using aircraft, drones, and artillery during the day; at least nine civilians were killed and 26 people were injured in the Russian attacks on the night of March 24.
• About 5 million Ukrainians do not have access to drinking water due to Russian aggression.
• This year, Ukraine will be fully supplied with grain and food; it is planned to harvest 45 million tons of grain and legumes.

Military:

• The enemy temporarily gained air superiority in the Avdiyivka area. They moved artillery, anti-missile defense systems and EW systems as close as possible to the front edge, significantly reducing the effectiveness of the air defense of the Ukrainian Joint Forces in this area and effectively blocking the airspace for the Ukrainian Air Force.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy freely uses aviation from high and medium altitudes in the area of Avdiivka;
• The Russian Air Force returned to the tactics of using large formations of 10-20 aircraft. The last such attack took place on March 23 in the Sumy region.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy is preparing for active offensive actions in the Kupyansk direction;
• The enemy will try to increase its efforts in the Avdiivka direction and will try to surround Avdiivka.

International:

• Estonia expelled a Russian “diplomat” who “has been directly and actively undermining Estonia’s security.
• Damage from the year of Russia’s war in Ukraine is estimated at $411 billion.
• The ICC will open an office in Ukraine, while the E.U. will organize an international conference aimed at tracing Ukrainian children abducted by Russia.
• The U.S. introduced new sanctions on the Lukashenko regime.

• A survey shows Eastern Germans feel sympathy toward Russia; they are less supportive of Ukraine, and more than half of them is against security assistance.

Humanitarian aspect:

The prosecutor’s office recorded 76,066 crimes of aggression and war crimes (1,539 per last week) and 16,876 crimes against national security (63 per last week).

Children

During the last week, 8 children suffered from the Russian attacks on Ukraine, informed the press service of the Prosecutor General’s Office. “Crimes against children, data for March 17-24, 2023: 465 children were killed (1 child in the last week), 942 children were injured (7 children in a week),”

Ukraine returned home seven children from Kherson Oblast, who had been separated from their relatives for almost half a year. In October 2022, the occupiers forcibly sent Ukrainian children to the temporarily occupied Yevpatoria, supposedly for “rehabilitation” in a children’s camp.

POWs

Ukraine unilaterally transferred to Russia all severely wounded prisoners [who could be transported] captured since the beginning of the full-scale war. The Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters explained that it is not about the exchange but about repatriation – the return of the seriously wounded without any conditions, as stipulated by international humanitarian law. At the same time, Russia continues to hold captive Ukrainian citizens who should be returned by repatriation, including the seriously ill and wounded, civilians, children, women and the elderly.

The bodies of 83 more fallen soldiers were returned to Ukraine, the Ministry of Reintegration reported. In total, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, it was possible to return the bodies of at least 1,426 Ukrainian soldiers from the temporarily occupied territories.

War crimes

The UN has documented 621 cases of enforced disappearances and arbitrary detention of civilians by the Russian armed forces, stated the head of the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, Matilda Bogner, at the presentation of two new reports – on the treatment of prisoners of war and the general situation with human rights in Ukraine. “In the occupied territories of Ukraine, we have documented arbitrary executions and attacks on individual civilians by the armed forces of the Russian Federation, as well as widespread arbitrary detentions and enforced disappearances.” The Monitoring Mission conducted interviews with

127 civilians who were detained and then released. Among them, 90% reported that representatives of the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the Russian security services tortured them and treated them cruelly during detention. “In some cases, this included sexual violence,” the head of the mission noted.

Russian attacks

Due to the strike of Russian forces at Ukraine on the night of March 24, nine civilians were killed, and 26 people were injured, according to the Military Media Center, the official resource of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Overall, the Russian forces attacked 10 Oblasts of Ukraine on March 23 using aircraft, drones, and artillery during the day, killing and wounding civilians. Consequences include:

• At night, the Russians carried out a massive attack on the territory of Sumy Oblast. 2 people died, and 10 others were injured. The Russians deployed 10 fighter jets, anti- aircraft guns and barrel artillery to bombard Sumy Oblast. An administrative, school, and residential buildings were destroyed in Bilopillia; multi-apartment and private buildings and a dormitory were damaged. In Vorozhba, a residential building and an outbuilding were damaged, 1 person was injured. In Vitry village, the shelling damaged a kindergarten and an administrative building and destroyed a school building. In Richky village, private houses, an administrative building and a gymnasium were damaged.
• In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a 73-year-old man was injured yesterday due to the enemy’s shelling of Nikopol and was hospitalized. The enemy hit the city with drones three times a day.
• At night, the enemy attacked Kryvyi Rih with drones. One Shahed was shot down, and 5 hit the targets. There are no reported casualties. The consequences of the attack are being investigated.
• In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, during the past day, aggressors fired at civilian infrastructure in the area of 18 towns and villages. 16 reports were received about the destruction of housing and infrastructure facilities.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, the enemy shelled with artillery the areas of 12 towns and villages in the Slobozhansk direction and 4 towns and villages in the Kupyansk direction. In the border village of Morozova Dolyna, Bohodukhiv district, two private houses were damaged by enemy shelling; the village was cut off from the power grid. Also, yesterday, the enemy fired mortars at Basove village, damaging farm buildings and power lines. A 46-year-old man was killed in a forest strip in the Kupyansk district due to a mine explosion.
• In Donetsk Oblast, at least three people died, and 5 were injured in the past day. The Russian army carried out 30 attacks during the day: airstrikes, shelling from the Uragan and Grad surface-to-air missiles, artillery, and tanks. 54 objects were damaged (33 residential buildings, 10 of which are apartment buildings), 5 civilian cars, two tractors, three tanks, a store, a children’s hospital, and the building of the Homeless Persons Center. According to the latest data, five people were killed due to Russian strikes by S- 300 missiles on Kostyantynivka tonight. According to the prosecutor’s office, one of the Russian rockets hit a one-story building that housed the “point of invincibility” [Ukrainian government established shelter].
• Yesterday evening, the enemy tried to attack Odesa Oblast with Su-35 fighters from the direction of the Black Sea. Air defense forces shot down two guided air missiles. There are no casualties or damage.

• In Mykolaiv Oblast, Russian troops twice fired mortars at the water area of the Dnipro- Buzka estuary of the Ochakiv community during the day. There are no casualties.
• In Kherson Oblast, the Russian army carried out 74 shellings, firing 423 shells from heavy artillery and “Grads”. The enemy attacked Kherson four times. 12 shells hit residential quarters, private and apartment buildings, and a medical facility. One person died. The enemy also hit the Kherson Regional Cardio center. The gas pipe, offices, and windows were damaged. In addition, the Russian army shelled Beryslav. The administrative building was partially destroyed, and a residential building, a local history museum and the local newspaper office were hit. Shells also fell on the territory of the park and the church. Another 87 people were evacuated from the region’s territory, liberated from the Russians.

Occupied territories

According to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, the Russian occupying “authorities” has begun evacuation from the temporarily occupied Crimea. The Russian command on the peninsula and the occupation administration are actively selling real estate and evacuating their families from Crimea. Earlier, local residents heard warnings on FM stations that they should prepare to leave. Andriy Yusov, the spokesman for the Intelligence Directorate, believes the warning applies to those Crimeans who cooperated with the occupation authorities.

Environment

About 5 million Ukrainians do not have access to drinking water, and another 70% of the population of Ukraine may be left without this resource due to Russian shelling, stated the Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources Ruslan Strilets on his social media. Strilets also noted that due to the [enemy] releasing water from the Kakhovka reservoir, there is a threat of failure of the cooling systems of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, the largest in Europe. This could mean a possible Fukushima scenario in the middle of the European continent.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Maryinka, and Shakhtarsk directions;
• The enemy temporarily gained air superiority in the Avdiyivka area. They moved artillery, anti-missile defense systems and EW systems as close as possible to the front edge, significantly reducing the effectiveness of the air defense of the Ukrainian Joint Forces in this area and effectively blocking the airspace for the Ukrainian Air Force.

Battleline:

• Units of the Defense Forces repelled more than 79 enemy attacks in various directions. Bakhmut remains the epicenter of hostilities.
• The enemy pushed back the 25th separate airborne brigade of the Air Assault Forces of Ukraine from Chornopopivka, regained control over Dibrova and pushed back units of the Defense Forces from the southwestern outskirts of Kreminna into the forests near the city. The forces of the 81st separate airborne brigade and 10th separate mountain assault brigade repulsed enemy attacks on Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske and south of Siversk.

• During the last three days, the enemy continued to expand the area where it reached the M03 highway northwest of Bakhmut. The aggressor’s attempts to cut the T0506 road were unsuccessful. The Defense Forces repelled the enemy assault on the section between Bohdanivka and Khromove, improved their tactical position, and pushed the enemy away from the T0506 highway.
• The enemy continues to build up pressure from Novobakhmutivka and Novoselivka Druga on the section of the H20 highway in the general direction to Novokalynove. Two Russian assault groups attacked from Krasnohorivka to Stepove, broke through the defense of the Ukrainian Joint Forces in this section and reached the railway track opposite Stepove but were pushed back from the railway by a counterattack by Ukrainian units.
• There was a powerful Russian attack from Opytne in the direction of the southwestern outskirts of Avdiyivka. The enemy reached the outskirts of the city, but units of the Ukrainian Joint Forces counterattacked and pushed them back, as a result of which the enemy was forced to retreat from Opytne.

Change in enemy disposition: information is not available.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy freely uses aviation from high and medium altitudes in the area of Avdiivka;
• The Russian Air Force returned to the tactics of using large formations of 10-20 aircraft, carrying out 116 sorties yesterday. Usually, the group consists of Su-34s and Su-35s, whose actions are supported by a powerful EW group; Kh-31, Kh-58 and Kh-29 anti-radar missiles are widely used. The last such attack took place on March 23 in the Sumy region.

Possible operation situation developments:

• In the short term, the enemy will concentrate its efforts in the areas between Bakhmut and Bilohorivka and in the Kreminna-Lyman direction;
• The enemy is preparing for active offensive actions in the Kupyansk direction;
• The enemy will try to increase its efforts in the Avdiivka direction and will try to surround Avdiivka.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The number of enemy ships at sea during the last day has decreased due to weather conditions. 10 ships and vessels of the Russian Navy are patrolling the Black Sea region away from the coast of Crimea. Among them, two corvettes, “Vyshny Volochyok” and “Grayvoron” (type “Buyan-M”) and two submarines pr 636.3 are carriers of “Kalibr” missiles (up to 24 missiles on board) and patrol in the sea areas of firing positions from Sevastopol to Feodosia.
• One patrol ship is in the Sea of Azov.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske. A total of 28 combat sorties were made over the past day.

• Four flights were made to Belbek airfield, three to Dzhankoy airfield, and one to Saki airfield by the Russian Air Force military transport aircraft to deliver personnel.
• 10 aircraft and two helicopters were involved in the control of the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea water area (3 Su-27/30 aircraft from the Belbek airfield, 3 Su30 CM and two Su-24M aircraft, one MiG-29K from the Saki airfield, one Be- 12 aircraft and two Ka-31R helicopters from Kacha airfield).
• Control of the air situation and operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U and Il-22 AEW&C aircraft. Il-22 PP aircraft were used to set up obstacles over the Sea of Azov.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 24.03.23

Personnel – almost 169,170 people (+1,020);

Tanks – 3,574 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 6,921 (+23);

Artillery systems – 2,616 (+8)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 511 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 276 (+3); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,464 (+12); Aircraft – 305 (0);

Helicopters – 290 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,208 (+5); Intercepted cruise missiles – 911 (+2);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

This year, Ukraine will be fully supplied with grain and food; it is planned to harvest 45 million tons of grain and legumes, announced PM Denys Shmyhal during the government meeting on March 24. “The second sowing campaign is underway in Ukraine under martial law. We help our farmers to conduct it again successfully. According to preliminary estimates, we expect a harvest of 45 million tons of cereals and legumes. The wheat harvest is expected at the level of 16.6 million tons,” Shmyhal said. He emphasized that domestic consumption is about 5 million tons; therefore, Ukraine will be fully supplied with grain and food, just like last year.

International diplomatic aspect

Estonia expelled a Russian “diplomat” who “has been directly and actively undermining Estonia’s security and constitutional order, spreading propaganda that justifies Russia’s military action and causing divisions in Estonian society.”

$411 billion is required for the reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine, according to a joint assessment of Ukraine’s government, the U.N., the World Bank, and the European Commission. The estimate covers one year from Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, so it doesn’t include the damage caused by the Russian aggression since 2014. The assessment quantifies the direct physical damage to infrastructure and buildings and describes the impact on people’s lives and

livelihoods. Ukraine will need $14 billion for critical and priority reconstruction and recovery investments in 2023.

Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin and the Registrar of the Hague-based International Criminal Court Peter Lewis signed an agreement on opening the ICC’s office in Ukraine. “I am convinced that we will not stop until all those guilty of international crimes committed against Ukraine are brought to justice, including the top military and political leadership of Russia’s criminal regime,” the Prosecutor General said. The E.U. will organize an international conference aimed at tracing Ukrainian children abducted by Russia, the president of the European Commission said.

The U.S. introduced new sanctions on the Lukashenko regime, including three entities and nine individuals, “in response to the ongoing brutal crackdown against the pro-democracy movement and civil society surrounding the fraudulent August 2020 presidential election.” A presidential aircraft has been identified as blocked property.

A survey commissioned by the E.U. Commission shows Eastern Germans feel sympathy toward Russia. While more than half of Germans are satisfied with the E.U. response to the Russian aggression, less than a third of East Germans think so. Seventy-nine percent of West Germans support sanctions against Russia, whereas just half of Eastern Germans support them. The most striking picture is with defensive assistance – sixty-nine West Germans favor it, whereas fifty-five percent of East Germans oppose it. The paradox is that Eastern Germany was occupied by the Soviet Union and felt all the “advantages” of the totalitarian regime. The deep scars of the communist occupation are also reflected in more extreme electoral preferences.

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