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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• During March 25, 5 civilians died, and 25 were injured in Ukraine due to Russian attacks;
• A total of 132 towns and villages were shelled, and damage to 63 infrastructure objects was confirmed;
• The mine situation in the formerly occupied areas remains acute. Mine explosions injured at least 5 people in Kherson Oblast over the past two days, and 1 person died in Kharkiv Oblast;
• Russian occupation authorities subject residents of Kherson Oblast to torture for refusing to take Russian passports;

Military:

• The Russian forces fail to organize active offensive actions on the Kupyansk-Lyman line, despite the use of regular units that act more cautiously and conducting reconnaissance and use artillery;
• The Russian military is trying to approach Avdiivka from the north in the Berdychi area, Novobakhmutivka, Novokalynove and Stepove, and from the south, instead of conducting a frontal assault.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian military is preparing for active offensive actions in the Kupyansk direction;
• The Russian forces intensify their efforts in the Avdiivka direction and will try to surround Avdiivka.
• Sea: A large number of anti-tank weapons, including about five hundred 100 mm Mt-12 “Rapira” guns, are transferred from the Russian Federation to the Novoozerne base (Crimea). This equipment is probably intended for use in the occupied territories in the south of Ukraine.

International:

• Ukraine is among the top five most favorable “institutions” in the US. The majority supports adding Ukraine and rejects the PRC “peace” plan.
• Though Russia shows no signs of preparing to employ nuclear weapons, European nations voiced their concern and condemnation of the plans to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
• Lavrov thinks that the U.S. has “crossed all the lines of diplomatic, ethical and any other decency,” commenting on Xi’s visit to Moscow.

Humanitarian aspect:

Seven children still remain in Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, Vitaliy Barabash, head of the Avdiivka city military administration, said. “Unfortunately, there are irresponsible parents who hide their children and do not want to leave the city.” In general, 2-3 people a day were evacuated from Avdiivka in recent days. Those who remain do not actively leave the city. Overall, about 2,000 people stay in the city. There is no electricity or water.

Starting March 26, the curfew in Kyiv has been shortened and now lasts from 0:00 to 5:00. The work of the Kyiv metro was extended for one hour.

Russian attacks

During March 25, 5 civilians died, and 25 were injured in Ukraine due to Russian attacks, the Military Media Center reported. Overall, 8 Ukrainian Oblasts came under Russian fire. A total of 132 towns and villages were shelled with various types of weapons (mortars, tanks, artillery, MLRS, S-300 air defense system, Lancet UAV, tactical aircraft), and damage to 63 infrastructure objects was confirmed.

• Over the past day, Russian troops shelled the border villages of Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Chuhuyiv and Bohodukhiv districts of Kharkiv Oblast. In Kupyansk, a private home and an apartment building were damaged due to the shelling.
• Russian   troops   fired   heavy    artillery    at    the    Velykomykhalivska    community of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Russian military attacked the Marhanets community of the Nikopol district with a drone. In the evening, Russian terrorists attacked Nikopol from a drone.
• In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, during the past day, there were 76 instances of enemy shelling, using tank weapons, rocket and barrel artillery along the entire line of contact. 20 reports were filed about destroying buildings and infrastructure facilities.
• In Kherson Oblast, Russian troops continued to shell Kherson and its suburbs, populated areas of the Kherson and Beryslav districts. Over the past day, the Russian invaders carried out 49 attacks, firing 210 shells from heavy artillery and UAVs. Nine people were injured.
• There have been more frequent cases when the Russian military opened fire on highways between populated areas of Luhansk Oblast in order to make it difficult for people to move.
• In Donetsk Oblast, the Russian army carried out airstrikes and artillery fire. At least 10 towns and villages got attacked. Two people died, and one was injured in the Oblast.
• On the morning of March 26, the Russian army shelled the Krasnopillya and Bilopillia communities of Sumy Oblast. 16 and 10 mortar shots were recorded. No damages or victims were reported.

On March 26, the Russian occupiers launched a missile attack by aircraft on Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, hitting two high-rise buildings, the head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, reported.

Mine danger

Four people got injured as a result of 3 different mine explosions in Kherson Oblast on March 26. Another incident occurred in Velyka Oleksandrivka on March 25 when a man hit a Russian mine and was hospitalized with arm and leg injuries.

One civilian hit a mine and died due to the explosion in Kharkiv Oblast. Occupied territories

According to the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD, few people in the occupied Kherson Oblast take Russian passports, so the local occupation authorities get reprimanded from Moscow. The [Russian] “authorities” torture those who refuse to take Russian passports to speed up the process. The occupiers repeatedly carried out show punishments – they put sacks on the men and threw them into the trenches.

In Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the occupying administration ordered local residents to obtain passes from the city commandant’s office until April 1 to move around the temporarily occupied territories of the Oblast. Passes can be obtained with subject to successful filtering. They would be issued separately to people and to vehicles, the Ukrainian General Staff reported.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The main efforts of the Russian military are concentrated on offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions;
• The Russian forces fail to organize active offensive actions on the Kupyansk-Lyman line, despite the use of regular units that act more cautiously and conduct reconnaissance and use artillery;
• The Russian military is trying to approach Avdiivka from the north in the Berdychi area, Novobakhmutivka, Novokalynove and Stepove, and from the south, instead of conducting a frontal assault.

Battleline:

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled over 85 Russian attacks in different directions;
• The Russian forces attacked unsuccessfully near the following towns and villages Synkivka, Kreminna, Bilohorivka, and Vyimka of Luhansk Oblast, continued the assault on the city of Bakhmut, attacked in the Bohdanivka, Predtechne, Keramik, Avdiyivka, Tonenke, Severne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka of Donetsk Oblast;
• The Russian troops tried to advance to the northeast of Kupyansk and unsuccessfully attacked near Hryanykivka and Synkivka. The UAV unit of the 138th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 6th army employed attack drones against units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces;
• The Russian military carried out unsuccessful offensive actions near Dibrova, in the Serebryansk Forest area, Bilohorivka, Spirne, and Vyimka and made insignificant advances near Kovalivka and Verkhnyokamianske. It unsuccessfully attacked in the direction of Terny, Nevske, and Makiivka and slightly advanced near Bilohorivka;
• The Russian forces advanced along the T0513 highway in Bakhmut towards the city center and somewhat to the southwest of Bakhmut. The enemy made unsuccessful ground strikes on Bakhmut in Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Stupochki, and Predtechne areas. Ukrainian Joint forces have regained some positions along the E40 highway after a successful counterattack;

• The enemy launched unsuccessful attacks near Keramik, Stepove, Avdiyivka, Tonenke, Severne, Pervomaiske and Maryinka. Fighting continues in western Maryinka;
• The Ukrainian Joint Forces repulsed Russian ground attacks near Vuhledar and Novomykhailivka. Russian troops continued to strike the front-line areas in the west of Donetsk Oblast.

Change in enemy disposition:

• The Russian military command continues integrating the irregular forces of the so-called DNR operating in the Avdiivka-Donetsk area into its regular forces. In the Avdiivka area, the 1454th self-propelled artillery regiment, 132nd separate motorized rifle brigade (former 3rd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps), 58th separate SOF brigade (all former proxy units from the so-called “People’s militia of the DNR”), which have been reformed into the military, are an active part of the Southern Military District of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

Escalation indicators: not noted

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian military is preparing for active offensive actions in the Kupyansk direction;
• The Russian forces intensify their efforts in the Avdiivka direction and will try to surround Avdiivka.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The number of Russian ships at sea is 10. They patrol the Black Sea far off the coast of Crimea. Among them, two project 636.3 submarines are carriers of Kalibr missiles (up to 8 missiles on board) patrol in the sea areas of firing positions.
• One patrol ship is in the Sea of Azov.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. A total of 18 combat sorties were made over the past day.
• One flight of military transport aircraft of the Russian Air Force for the delivery of personnel landed at each Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske airfields. Control of the air situation and operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U and Il-22 AEW&C aircraft.
• A large number of anti-tank weapons, including about five hundred 100 mm Mt-12 “Rapira” guns, are transferred from the Southern, Central and Eastern military districts of the Russian Federation to the Novoozerne base (Crimea). This equipment is probably intended for use in the occupied territories of southern Ukraine..
• During a storm, waves threw a Russian sea mine on the coast of Sychavka village near Odesa. The ammunition exploded and seriously damaged several houses built on the shore. Since the beginning of 2023, more than 10 sea mines thrown by storms onto the Black Sea coast have already been discovered (more than 40 mines since the beginning of the war). The greatest frequency of such incidents is near Odesa.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 26.03.23

Personnel – almost 170,550 people (+660);

Tanks – 3,595 (+15);

Armored combat vehicles – 6,947 (+15);

Artillery systems – 2631 (+8)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 522 (+2); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 277 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,486 (+3); Aircraft – 305 (0);

Helicopters – 291 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,216 (+2); Intercepted cruise missiles – 911 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

International diplomatic aspect

Americans placed Ukraine (57%) in the top five most favorable institutions after the U.S. Military, Amazon, Police, and Center for Disease Control, according to a Harvard Caps Harris poll. Ukraine is ahead of the FBI, NATO, Supreme Court, and Facebook. Russia (-71%) and China (-69%) are at the bottom of the list. Seventy-one percent of Americans believe that China’s “peace” plan favors Russia, and only a third believe that China is a fair judge. The same share of people thinks that the U.S. needs to work with the E.U. and produce a peace plan that seeks to protect Ukraine’s borders and people in opposition to those who believe it’s a good idea to accept the Chinese plan. Two-thirds of Americans (67%) support the U.S. Government aiding Ukraine until Russia pulls all invading forces from Ukraine’s territory or is defeated on the battlefield. A third (33%) of respondents don’t agree with such support. Forty-one percent of Americans believe that the Biden Administration is doing too little to counter Russia’s influence and its war against Ukraine, while thirty-six percent think it’s about the right amount and twenty-three percent – too much. More than half of Americans (52%) believe that Ukraine’s fight with Russia is helping U.S. national security by keeping Russia pinned down and depleting its military resources, while forty-eight percent think it’s harming it because of the threat of escalating into a direct conflict with Russia. Over half of Americans would support providing Ukraine with $10 billion in assistance in 2023, while forty-two percent would oppose it. If assistance is doubled, two-thirds will oppose it, while thirty-seven percent will support it.

“We have not seen any reason to adjust our own strategic nuclear posture nor any indications Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon. We remain committed to the collective defense of the NATO alliance,” the Department of Defense’s press office said. “Russia’s reference to NATO’s nuclear sharing is totally misleading. NATO allies act with full respect for their international commitments… Russia has consistently broken its arms control commitments,” a NATO spokesperson said. “Belarus hosting Russian nuclear weapons would mean an irresponsible escalation & threat to European security. Belarus can still stop it; it is their choice,” the E.U. chief diplomat stated. It is a further step towards drawing Belarus into the cogs of the Russian war machine. It also poses risks in terms of the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Russian actions

confirm the legitimacy and importance of NATO’s deterrence policy, in which Poland participates, the Polish Foreign Ministry’s spokesman said. “We appeal to the countries of the G7 and the E.U. to warn the Belarusian authorities about the far-reaching consequences for Belarus if it agrees to accept tactical nuclear weapons from Russia on its territory,” Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry stated and called on the P5 members to react.

“We talked about this [U.S. statements before Xi visited Moscow] with our Chinese colleagues. Anything can be expected from the United States at the moment. In an effort to assert their hegemony, they have crossed all the lines of diplomatic, ethical, and any other decency,” Sergey Lavrov stated after going nuts with the all-out invasion.

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