CDS Daily brief (28.03.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• 13,000 infrastructure facilities have already been restored in four regions of Ukraine, and more than 600 km of roads were cleared.
• Russian attacked Ukraine at night with Shahed-136/131 drones and guided aerial bombs. 14 out of 15 launched UAVs were shot down. Two aerial bombs struck the Kherson Oblast.
• The Defense Forces of Ukraine have already destroyed more than one and a half thousand enemy operational-tactical level UAVs.

Military:

• The enemy continues to focus its efforts on offensive operations in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka areas;
• The transfer of the enemy PMC detachments to the Avdiivka and Maryinka areas aims to develop the last limited tactical successes in these districts;
• The use of the enemy 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58th Army in two different operational directions, in particular outside the operational zone of the 58th Army, indicates a lack of units with combat experience and adequate combat potential;
• The deployment of the Airborne Forces, the most combat-capable part of the Russian Armed Forces, in the entire theater of war indicates that the Russian Federation is not concentrating its best forces for any consolidated offensive on one particular section of the front.
• The Russian Aerospace Forces tested guided aerial bombs along the contact line in Kherson Oblast and struck Beryslav with them. They are converting unguided FAB-500 aerial bombs into guided ones to replace expensive cruise missiles.

International:

• The U.S. support the development of a Special Tribunal on the crime of aggression against Ukraine, a hybrid justice mechanism.
• China has reacted to Putin’s announcement of nuclear arms deployment to Belarus. A vague in language reply hides dissatisfaction with Putin putting Xi Jinping in a peculiar position just four days after their joint statement.
• Russia failed to secure its U.N. Security Council’s resolution, though it had voices from China and Brazil and backing from Belarus, DPRK, Eritrea, Nicaragua, Syria and Venezuela.
• The U.K. announced a new assistance package for the Ukrainian IDPs, war-affected areas and the Red Cross.
• Russia helps Iran with advanced cyberspatialities.

Humanitarian aspect:

Russia has kidnapped 4,390 Ukrainian children – orphans, half-orphans and deprived of parental care, said the Minister for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories, Iryna Vereshchuk, on the air of the national telethon.

13,000 infrastructure facilities have already been restored in four regions of Ukraine (Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts), and road workers have cleared more than 600 km of highways and provided passage through 50 temporary crossings, stated the Ministry of Community Development, Territories and Infrastructure on its social media account. In addition,

171 medical institutions, 19 universities, 238 schools, 122 kindergartens, 976 critical infrastructure facilities, almost 2,000 high-rise buildings and 9,000 private estates were restored.

At the same time, the head of the Committee of the Verkhovna Rada on Regional Development stated that the government had registered 348,413 applications from Ukrainian for compensation for housing damaged and destroyed as a result of Russian aggression.

Russian attacks

The Russian invaders attacked Ukraine at night with Shahed-136/131 drones and guided aerial bombs. Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 14 out of 15 launched UAVs, according to the General Staff. In addition, the enemy attacked Kherson Oblast with two guided aerial bombs.

Among the consequences of enemy attacks:

• On March 28, the enemy launched a missile attack on Bohodukhiv in Kharkiv Oblast; preliminary with S-300s. Residential houses and a kindergarten were damaged, and a 73- year-old pensioner was concussed.
• On Tuesday morning, Russian troops carried out 20 strikes on the border areas of Sumy Oblast. An air strike with a guided aerial bomb on Bilopillia damaged 2 private houses, a low-pressure street gas pipeline, and a two-story apartment building. 1 person was injured.
• Yesterday, on March 27, one resident of Donetsk Oblast was killed (in Sloviansk), and another 34 people were injured due to Russian attacks. On the night of March 28, a kindergarten and a school came under shelling in Kramatorsk. The building of the enterprise was also damaged by shelling, said Pavel Kirilenko, head of the Donetsk regional administration. No civilian casualties were reported.
• On the night of March 28, the Russian army shelled Kherson with mortars and artillery, and enemy shells hit the hospital building and the post office. In Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, a civilian object was damaged by an enemy airstrike.

Occupied territories

In the temporarily captured Mariupol, the invaders are currently conducting a total sweep of the population and search operations, Petro Andryushchenko, adviser to the [Ukrainian] mayor of Mariupol, reported on his social media. “Military occupiers and policemen of the regime patrol the streets. Men, regardless of age and women under 40, are mostly stopped. They check documents, gadgets, and personal belongings. They are being detained on petty suspicion,” Andryushchenko wrote. He noted that according to the information of members of the Mariupol resistance, they had no losses. As was reported earlier, on March 27, the Mariupol resistance forces blew up the car of the “police” chief, who was organizing filtering activities in the city. He is currently in hospital in serious condition.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka areas;
• The transfer of the enemy PMC detachments to the Avdiivka and Maryinka areas aims to develop the last limited tactical successes in these districts;
• The use of the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58th Army in two different operational directions, in particular outside the operational zone of the 58th Army, indicates the Russian command’s lack of units with combat experience and adequate combat potential;
• The deployment of the Airborne Forces, the most combat-capable part of the Russian Armed Forces, in the entire theater of war shows that the Russian Federation is not concentrating its best forces for any concerted offensive on one particular section of the front.

Battleline:

• Units of the Defense Forces repelled more than 62 enemy attacks in various directions.
• The enemy conducted unsuccessful offensives in the areas of Krokhmalne, Kreminna, Kuzmyne, Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske and Berestove in Luhansk Oblast; continued the assault on Bakhmut; attacked in the areas of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Ozeryanivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske and Maryinka in Donetsk Oblast.
• The enemy achieved minor successes in the Svatove area and advanced to Raigorodka. Enemy attacks in the vicinity of Synkivka, Kreminna, Bilohorivka, Vyimka and Vesele were unsuccessful. Units of the 76th Air assault division of the Russian Airborne Forces operate in the forest areas near Kreminna. The highest intensity of the fighting is in the Kupyansk- Lyman section; 10 combat clashes occurred here over the past day.
• The enemy has made some progress in the northwestern part of Bakhmut, the mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC are advancing within the AZOM complex.
• The enemy attacks were unsuccessful in the areas of Avdiivka, Novokalynove, Severne, Tonenke, Stepove, Novobakhmutivka; on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk near Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka; and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk near Maryinka. Russian troops have entered Novokalynove and are advancing on Keramik; advancing north of Novomykhailivka.
• Russian troops reduced the intensity of shelling in the Kherson Oblast from 90-100 to 50- 60 times a day.

Change in enemy disposition:

• The number of Russian troops in the Republic of Belarus decreased to 4,000; the units that previously restored combat capability on its training grounds were partially deployed to the east of Ukraine.
• In the area of Avdiyivka, the fighting is being waged by units of the Russian 10th regiment, probably a newly created formation of the so-called DPR, subordinate to the Russian command.

• Units of the 200th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRBr) of the 14th army corps of the Northern Fleet of the Russian Armed Forces were spotted in the Maryinka area.
• The 136th SMRBr of the 58th Army operates in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Previously, it was deployed to the Shakhtarsk direction near Vuhledar, where it replaced the defeated 155th separate marines brigade. Separate units of the 136th SMRBr operate in the Avdiyivka direction.
• An unidentified unit of the Russian Airborne Forces, presumably from the newly formed 104th airborne division, operates near Hulyaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy used aerosol tear gas grenades in the areas of Novokalynove, Lastochkyne, Pervomaiske and Maryinka;
• The enemy’s command transferred units of the “Wagner” PMC near Avdiivka;
• The Russian Aerospace Forces tested guided aerial bombs along the contact line in Kherson Oblast and struck Beryslav with them. They are converting unguided FAB-500 aerial bombs into guided ones to replace expensive cruise missiles.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy is preparing for active offensive actions in the Kupyansk direction;
• The enemy is increasing its efforts in the Avdiivka direction and will try to surround Avdiivka;
• An aggravation should be expected in the Maryinka direction.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The number of enemy ships at sea during the last day has decreased due to weather conditions. 7 ships and vessels of the Russian Navy are patrolling the Black Sea region away from the coast of Crimea. Among them, one submarine pr. 636.3, carrier of Kalibr missiles (up to 4 missiles on board), patrol in the sea areas of firing positions southeast of Sevastopol.
• One patrol ship is in the Sea of Azov.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske. A total of 16 combat sorties were made over the past day. Control of the air situation and operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U and Il-22 AEW&C aircraft.
• On March 28, 2023, NATO planes conducted reconnaissance over the Black Sea. According to the Flightradar24 service, the American Lockheed EP-3E Aries II aircraft was circling near the coast of Romania, and the Boeing P-8A Poseidon base patrol aircraft was patrolling over the territory of Romania with little access to the airspace over the Black Sea.
• Due to the stormy conditions, a mine danger has been declared in Odesa Oblast. Since the beginning of the year, about 20 sea mines have been thrown onto the coast. 20% of them detonate when they hit the coast; the rest remain on the seashore and are later destroyed by sappers.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 28.03.23

Personnel – almost 171,730 people (+570);

Tanks – 3,602 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 6,966 (+13);

Artillery systems – 2,653 (+15)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 525 (+2); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 277 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,502 (+9); Aircraft – 305 (0);

Helicopters – 291 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,235 (+19); Intercepted cruise missiles – 911 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The Defense Forces of Ukraine have already destroyed more than one and a half thousand enemy operational-tactical level UAVs of the “Orlan-10” type, said Yuriy Ignat, the spokesman of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on the air of the national telethon. This number does not include downed enemy quadcopters and tactical-level UAVs. Evaluating the current capabilities of the enemy air forces, he emphasized that the Russian group of aircraft, which attacks Ukraine from several dozen airfields, has increased quantitatively, but the quality has much decreased. The enemy increased the activity of tactical aviation and the use of guided aerial bombs. To counter Russian terrorists, Ukraine needs both long-range air defense and modern multi-purpose aircraft.

The first three companies of attack drones are fully equipped and ready for battle, said Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov. “The Ukrainian army is actively transforming and gaining unique experience in the most technological war in history. Earlier, together with the General Staff, we announced the creation of the world’s first UAV strike companies. With a completely new approach to management, training and the doctrine of the use of drones. Today, the first three strike companies of the UAV are ready for battle. Together with partners, they were fully staffed. Pickup trucks, impact copters and Starlinks were handed over. All drones are Ukrainian-made. The equipment for the strike companies of the Drone Army was purchased by private donors,” the minister said in a statement.

International diplomatic aspect

“We believe an internationalized court that is rooted in Ukraine’s judicial system, but that also includes international elements, will provide the clearest path to establishing a new Tribunal and maximizing our chances of achieving meaningful accountability. We envision such a court having significant international support and being located elsewhere in Europe, at least at first, to reinforce Ukraine’s desired European orientation,” Ambassador-at-large for Global Criminal Justice said, expressing the U.S. support for the development of a Special Tribunal on the crime of aggression against Ukraine, a hybrid justice mechanism. A tribunal of this type will complement the work that will be undertaken by the new “International Centre for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression (ICPA), being established in the Hague, by ensuring that the information and evidence collected by that center can be effectively put towards accountability purposes.” The

ICPA will coordinate the investigation of acts of aggression committed against Ukraine and build criminal dossiers against those leaders responsible for planning, preparing, initiating, or waging this war of aggression for future trials.

Chinese Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson reacted to the news of Russia deploying nuclear weapons to Belarus: “In January last year, the leaders of the five nuclear-weapon states released a joint statement, in which they affirmed that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought and stressed the importance of the avoidance of war between nuclear-weapon states and the reduction of strategic risks. Under the current circumstances, all sides need to focus on making diplomatic efforts towards a peaceful settlement of the Ukraine crisis and work together for de-escalation.” Besides the Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States on Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races of January 3, 2022, just before the all-out invasion, there is another document China could have mentioned in its reply. Just four days before the announcement, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping proclaimed a joint statement on “Deepening Comprehensive Partnership and Strategic Cooperation, Entering a New Era.” The pompous document includes a line that “All nuclear powers must not station nuclear weapons outside their national territories and must withdraw all nuclear weapons stationed abroad.” It is unlikely Putin had let his partner know about his plans to proliferate nuclear arms; he put Xi in a peculiar position and showed unpredictability.

China and Brazil were the only pair of countries which supported Russia’s draft of the resolution on the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Right after Russia tabled a draft China, Belarus, DPRK, Eritrea, Nicaragua, Syria and Venezuela joined as cosponsors. The company shows a new political pol opposing the rules-based order and sides with Russia on any issues.

The U.K. announced up to £10 million in funding to support a new U.K.-Polish partnership which will provide shelter to more than 700 of the most vulnerable displaced people in Ukraine. The partnership will also offer £2.6 million worth of generators to support schools, hospitals and community centers across Ukraine, helping approximately 450,000 people in newly liberated areas or directly affected by the fighting. The Ukrainian Red Cross will also receive up to £2.5 million for their winter appeal.

“Russia is helping Iran gain advanced digital-surveillance capabilities as Tehran seeks deeper cooperation on cyber-warfare,” the WSJ reported. It’s also reported that as a favor for supplying Russia with drones and missiles, Iran is also eyeing “dozens of elite Russian attack helicopters and jet fighters and help with its long-range missile program.” Moscow has likely shared mobile network spyware and software systems for censorship.

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