CDS Daily brief (31.03.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• A year ago, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated Bucha, where the Russians committed more than 9,000 war crimes in 33 days of occupation. Volodymyr Zelensky presented Bucha with the insignia “Hero City”. He assured Ukrainians would never forgive and would punish every perpetrator of war crimes committed in Bucha and the area.
• Ukrainian air defense forces destroyed 9 out of 10 enemy attack drones at night.
• Europol analyzed 7,000 photos and video clips and identified 150 suspects of war crimes during the war in Ukraine started by Russia.

Military:

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces prevented a direct threat of the encirclement of their Bakhmut garrison and stabilized their flanks to the north and south of the city; the enemy lost the opportunity to advance simultaneously in this area and in several other directions.
• The development of the situation in the areas of Bakhmut and Avdiivka will impact the further course of the war for both sides in view of the scope of hostilities and the consumption of resources.
• The Russian forces will try to develop their tactical success north of Bakhmut into an operational one.
• In the event of an enemy breakthrough into the Orlyivka – Lastochkine – Severne – Tonenke area and advance to the outskirts of Stepove, the situation in Avdiivka will turn to be like in Bakhmut, leaving the command of the Joint Forces with a choice of which city to leave, because fighting two major defensive battles at the same time is impossible due to the lack of resources;

International:

• The top U.S. Republicans called on the Biden Administration to supply Ukraine with cluster munitions. Neither the U.S. nor Ukraine is a part of any international treaties which banned those munitions.
• The Friends of Ukraine Network called on the Senate Committee on Armed Services to formulate the strategic goals of supporting Ukraine and provide it with long-range precision strike capabilities to target Russian forces, including on the territory of illegally occupied Crimea.
• Canada has provided Ukraine with 1.8 billion CDN credit.
• Alexander Lukashenko delivered a portion of demagogy about nuclear weapons on his territory and called Ukraine and Russia for a truce and the West to stop security assistance while threatening with retaliation.
• Volodymyr Zelensky thinks that Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus “indicates an unsuccessful meeting with China.” Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron will try to engage Xi Jinping into brokering peace.

• Vladimir Putin approved a new version of the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation.

Humanitarian aspect:

On the anniversary of the liberation of Bucha in the Kyiv Oblast, Volodymyr Zelensky reminded of the Russian soldiers’ atrocities in this city. During the 33 days of occupation, more than 1,400 people died, 37 of them were children. More than 175 people were found in mass graves and torture chambers. In total, 9,000 Russian war crimes were recorded. “A symbol of the atrocities of the occupying country’s army. We will never forgive. We will punish every perpetrator,” Volodymyr Zelensky said.

At the moment, 70 bodies of people who the Russian invaders killed remain unidentified in Bucha, said the head of the Bucha prosecutor’s office, Ruslan Kravchenko.

Russian attacks

Over the past day, Russian troops shelled 117 towns and villages in nine regions of Ukraine, reported the Military Media Center.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Air Force of Ukraine reported that on the evening of March 30 and the night of March 31, ten Shahed-136/131 drones attacked Ukraine. Nine of them were shot down by Ukrainian air defense forces. The drones were launched from the northern direction, from the Bryansk region of Russia.

Consequences of enemy shelling:

• Yesterday, late evening, the enemy fired 9 rockets at Kharkiv, preliminary the S-300 air defense system. Civil infrastructure and private residential buildings were damaged, and 3 people were injured. Also, last night, the enemy attacked critical infrastructure facilities in the Izyum district of the Kharkiv Oblast with kamikaze drones; 2 wounded civilians were reported.
• At midnight, the Russians struck Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast; 8 private houses were damaged, but there were no casualties. 1 killed and 5 wounded people were reported in Bakhmut. Two artillery shells hit Kostyantynivka; one person was wounded, and a state- owned enterprise and a factory building were damaged.
• The Russian military attacked Kherson Oblast 64 times; 1 person was killed and two wounded. Private and apartment buildings were damaged in Kherson.
• At night, the Russian occupiers attacked Zaporizhzhia. The infrastructure facility was damaged. On the morning of March 31, Russian troops launched rocket attacks on Orikhiv, wounding two civilians, 1 is in serious condition. Around 1 pm, there was a rocket attack on Zaporizhzhia. 2 people were wounded, and at least 5 houses were damaged.
• At night, the Russians shelled the territories of Znob-Novgorodska (5 sorties) and Bilopilsk communities of Sumy Oblast (15 sorties).
• On March 31,   the   enemy   hit   the   Marhanets   community   of   the   Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, twice. First, it fired from heavy artillery and later from a UAV. No people were injured. A social institution, a car and several farm buildings were damaged in Marhanets. The consequences of the attacks are still being determined.

The Russians shelled Avdiivka with artillery, a 5-month-old child and his grandmother were killed. The child’s parents were injured. A private house was damaged. “Just yesterday, the police once again persuaded the child’s mother to think about her son and leave. But, unfortunately, even a tough conversation did not lead to the desired result – the woman once again flatly refused to leave for a safer place,” said the head of Donetsk OMA, Pavlo Kyrylenko.

Three electricians were blown up by a Russian landmine in the village of Posad-Pokrovske in Kherson Oblast. Two men died, and one was seriously injured. A line of defense passed through Posad-Pokrovske, which restrained the Russians and prevented them from attacking Mykolaiv.

Justice for war crimes

Europol analyzed 7,000 photos and video clips and 550 witness statements. As a result, it was able to identify 150 suspects of war crimes during the war in Ukraine started by Russia, the executive director of Europol, Catherine de Bolle, announced during the United for justice conference in Bucha.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions;
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces prevented a direct threat of the encirclement of their Bakhmut garrison and stabilized their flanks to the north and south of the city; the enemy lost the opportunity to advance simultaneously in this area and in several other directions.

Battleline:

• Units of the Defense Forces repelled more than 80 enemy attacks in various directions. Bilohorivka, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Maryinka and their surroundings remain at the epicenter of hostilities.
• The enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novobakhmutivka, Novokalynove, Stepove, Avdiyivka, Severne, Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, and Maryinka in Donetsk Oblast.
• The enemy conducted unsuccessful offensives near Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Kuzmyne, and Vyimka (Luhansk Oblast) and slightly advanced near Kuzemivka. Units of the 144th Motorized rifle division of the 20th Army attacked Ukrainian positions near Makiyivka and tried to advance along the Terny – Torske line.
• The mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC achieved minor successes in southern Bakhmut. They continued their assault on the industrial zone, advanced north of the Bakhmut city market, and completely cleared the blocks in the south and southwest of Bakhmut. Assault squads of the “Wagner” PMC changed their tactics in Bakhmut and concentrated their forces on storming specific city areas. They intensified attacks in Khromove, trying to break through Ukrainian positions near Bohdanivka and Minkivka, near Ivanivske and Predtechne.

• Regular units of the Russian Armed Forces continued their assault on Bakhmut and conducted unsuccessful offensives in the Orikhovo-Vasylivka area. They stormed Ivanovske and Predtechne.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked the Russian air base in Hvardiyske in occupied Crimea.

Change in enemy disposition:

• In the area of the Krasnorichenske and Novodruzheska villages, the enemy made pontoon-bridge crossings across the Krasna River and the Siversky Donets River. The enemy reinforced the units of the 144th motorized rifle division of the 20th Army, which operate between Torske and Yampolivka, with two assault units (up to motorized rifle company each) from the 30th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd army.

Escalation indicators: not identified

Possible operation situation developments:

• The development of the situation in the areas of Bakhmut and Avdiivka will impact the further course of the war for both sides in view of the scope of hostilities and the consumption of resources. It already affects the course of operations in other directions and the strategic planning for the use of troops by the warring parties during the spring- summer campaigns;
• The Russian forces will try to develop their tactical success north of Bakhmut into an operational one, by increasing pressure in the direction of Hryhorivka, on Orikhovo- Vasylivka and in general along the road to Slovyansk in the direction of Pryvillya. Reserves of at least two brigades should be expected to be deployed in this direction;
• In the event of an enemy breakthrough into the Orlyivka – Lastochkine – Severne – Tonenke area and advance to the outskirts of Stepove, the situation in Avdiivka will turn to be like in Bakhmut, leaving the command of the Joint Forces with a choice of which city to leave, because fighting two major defensive battles at the same time is impossible due to the lack of resources;

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• After the end of the storm, the enemy increased the grouping of surface ships and submarines at sea to 11. They are in patrolling areas near the coast of Crimea. Among them, one frigate and one submarine pr 636.3, carriers of Kalibr missiles (total of up to 12 missiles on board), are in the area of the firing position southeast of Sevastopol.
• One patrol ship is in the Sea of Azov.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske. A total of 18 combat sorties were made over the past day. Control of the air situation and operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U and Il-22 AEW&C aircraft.

• “Grain initiative”. As of the evening of March 30, 857 ships exported 26.2 million tons of Ukrainian food to the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa from the ports of Great Odesa. Currently, 89 vessels are awaiting inspection in Turkish territorial waters.
• In February-March 2023, the monitoring group BlackSeaNews recorded a significant reduction in the number of violations of the EU embargo on importing Russian crude oil by sea from Black Sea ports. In January, there were 12 such violations; in February, their number decreased to 7, and in March, to 4 cases (each violation is an average of 1 million barrels). In March 2023, unlike the two previous months, there was no delivery of Russian crude oil directly to the ports of EU countries. However, a slightly reduced amount of oil delivered from the Black Sea to the on-road transshipment to the Laconian Gulf in Greece remains. Unlike the two previous months, among the embargo-violating tankers, only one belongs to a company registered in an EU country (Greece). In January, there were 8 of them. In February – 6. If the Greek government takes the problem of raid transshipment of oil near the country’s coast under strict control, it will be possible to talk about full compliance with the embargo of Russian oil exported from the Black Sea ports.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 31.03.23

Personnel – almost 173,360 people (+460);

Tanks – 3,615 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 6,977 (+3);

Artillery systems – 2,675 (+4)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 526 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 278 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,521 (+3); Aircraft – 306 (0);

Helicopters – 291 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,248 (+9); Intercepted cruise missiles – 911 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The Ukrainian government, the United Nations, the World Bank Group and the European Commission clarified the estimate of the cost of restoring Ukraine after a full-scale war – it will require $411 billion (previously, the figure was $319 billion). According to the joint report, Russian troops caused losses to the housing sector of Ukraine of $50 billion, educational institutions of Ukraine – $4.4 billion, and health care institutions – $2.5 billion.

International diplomatic aspect

The top Republicans on the House and Senate Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committees called on the Biden Administration to supply Ukraine with cluster munitions (Dual-Purpose Improved Conventional Munition). The shortage of 155 mm shells and asymmetry in manpower dictates the necessity of such supplies. Russia has been employing cluster munitions for a long time. Neither the U.S. nor Ukraine is a party to any international conventions banning cluster munitions.

“We urge that Congress specifically authorize long-range precision strike capability for Ukraine and include funding for that specific capability in the FY24 Defense Appropriations Bill and provide that such monies are to be spent and weapons provided as soon as the bill is signed into law,” the Friends of Ukraine Network (FOUN) called on the Senate Committee on Armed Services. The FOUN is a non-partisan coalition of former ambassadors and leading policy and international security professionals, including two former Supreme Allied Commanders in Europe and a former U.S. Army Commander in Europe. “We are with Ukraine for as long as it takes is not a strategic goal,” they argued. The group called for the clarity of the U.S. strategic endgame and a commitment to Ukraine, which must be winning. “And winning means all Russian forces leave Ukraine, abducted and missing are returned or accounted for, reparations are paid, and war criminals are identified and brought to justice.” “As long as it takes” suggests, among other things, that time is on Ukraine’s and our side. That is not so; it is in our interest and Ukraine’s to finish this war promptly before Russia can bring its superior manpower and other sources of material to bear.” “Crimea is essential. The United States must get to Ukraine what it needs to take out the Russian sanctuaries and cut off Russian supply routes to Crimea. Russian control of Crimea cannot stand. Without Crimea, Ukraine has no security because of the continuous threat of Russian attack and the Black Sea fleet’s ability to control and stop Ukraine’s international commerce,” the FOUN argued.

Canada has provided Ukraine with 1.8 billion CDN credit for ten years and 1.5% per annum.

Alexander Lukashenko revealed his alternative “truth”, “As a result of the efforts of the United States and its satellites, a full-scale war has been unleashed in [Ukraine] … a third world war with nuclear fires looms on the horizon,”. “If necessary, not only tactical but also strategic nuclear weapons will be introduced into Belarus,” Alexander Lukashenko threatened the West, which, he believes, is planning to attack Belarus via Poland. “At the same time, the transfer of NATO troops to the east is proceeding at an accelerated pace. The grouping of the bloc in Poland and the Baltic countries alone today has more than 21,000 military personnel, 250 tanks, almost 500 armored vehicles, and about 150 aircraft and helicopters. And this whole armada is defiantly training near the borders of Belarus and Russia. The question is the same: why?” he said, omitting his participation with Russia in the aggressive war that resulted in more than 170,000 Russian troops KIA.

Lukashenko suggested, “all [to be] stopped, frozen.” “It is necessary to stop hostilities and declare a truce that prohibits both sides from moving groups of troops and from transferring weapons, ammunition, manpower, and equipment,” he said. The self-named President threatened with retaliation for violating a truce he imagined. He believes Russia would be obliged to use the “full power of its military-industrial complex and the army to prevent the escalation of the conflict – phosphorus ammunition, non-depleted uranium, and enriched uranium – everything must go into action if there is deception and even the slightest movement across the border of Ukraine is noticed.”

“Any ceasefire will mean [the Russian Federation’s] right to stay in the occupied territories. This is totally inadmissible. [Ukraine] has the right to move troops and equipment on its territory as it deems necessary,” the Ukrainian presidential adviser replied. The Kremlin spokesman ruled out a truce as well. “In the context of Ukraine, nothing changes. The special military operation continues because, at the moment, it is the only way to achieve the goals that our country faces,” Dmitry Peskov said.

The Ukrainian President thinks that “the signal that Russia will deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus indicates an unsuccessful meeting with China.” Meanwhile, a French official from the President’s office said that “it’s obvious that China is one of the few countries on Earth

— maybe the only country in the world — to have a ‘game-changer’ effect on the conflict, for both sides.” While in Beijing, President Emmanuel Macron will meet President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, Macron to “find a space so that we can try initiatives that are useful to the Ukrainian people and then to find a way to identify solutions to end this war in the medium term,” the source said.

Russia, relevant news

Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, announced that he had approved a new version of the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation. Putin approved the previous version in November 2016 after the annexation of Crimea, the start of the war in Donbas. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reported on the provisions of the updated concept. According to him, the logic of the document “reflects changes in the foreign policy contour after the start of the SMO.” In particular, in the updated concept, the United States is called “the main conductor of the anti-Russian line”. The updated concept introduces the thesis of using the Armed Forces to repel or prevent an attack on the Russian Federation or its allies; it assumes that anti-Russian steps of unfriendly states will, if necessary, be severely suppressed. The new Foreign Policy Concept declares a strategic partnership with China and India.

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