CDS Daily brief (03.04.23) | CDS comments on key events

Download in PDF

---

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Over the past day, Russian invaders shelled 92 villages and towns in seven regions of Ukraine. 12 civilians died, and 32 were injured;
• Ukraine returned 12 POWs from Russia, 10 military and 2 civilians; 5 of them are heavily wounded;
• Ukraine has completely stopped importing electricity; there are no consumption restrictions;
• 5,008,482 Ukrainians with the status of temporary protection are registered in European countries;
• Russia continues integrating the newly annexed regions. Decisions regarding educational and judicial systems were made;
• Occupation authorities are preparing to hold Russian local elections in the occupied Ukrainian territories this fall.

Military:

• The Russian advance trying to capture Avdiivka was stopped; enemy units retreated from some positions under the pressure of the Ukrainian Joint Forces;
• The pace of the Russian assault on Bakhmut continues to decrease compared to the previous two weeks; the regrouping of Russian troops in the area of the city continues.
• Possible operation situation developments: After the Russian troops complete the regrouping in the Bakhmut area, an intensification of fighting should be expected.

International:

• Poland has already delivered “several” MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. Rheinmetall is building a military maintenance and logistics hub in Romania to service western weapon systems and equipment Ukraine operates. The EOS will sell Ukraine its Remote Weapons Systems.
• A possible new Prime Minister of Finland, which replaces the vocal backer of Ukraine, Sanna Marin, assured of his support for the country.
• Germany’s Vice-Chancellor visits Ukraine to give “a signal that we [Germany] believe it [Ukraine] will be victorious.” He focused on the reconstruction and energy projects.
• Vladimir Putin has established a state-run fund to support the “participants” in the war in Ukraine and appointed his cousin as a chair. Russia’s security services are confiscating the passports of senior officials and state company executives to prevent them from fleeing abroad.
• The Kremlin continues its nuclear saber-rattling by announcing the formation of a division of special-purpose nuclear submarines in Kamchatka, allegedly capable of sweeping off the entire coast of the U.S. Russia’s ambassador to Belarus announced that the nuclear weapons would be placed near the western border of the host country.

Humanitarian aspect:

5,008,482 Ukrainians with the status of temporary protection are registered in European countries, the UN said. Between January 31 and March 28, 2023, the number of Ukrainian citizens who acquired official protection status in European countries increased by 185,000. The most significant number of Ukrainians live in Poland – 1.577 million. The second is Germany, with 922,000 people. 502,000 Ukrainians found refuge in the Czech Republic. In total, since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, more than 8 million Ukrainian refugees have been registered on the territory of Europe. Later, some of them returned home or left for other countries of the world.

POWs

Ukraine returned 12 more citizens from Russian captivity, including five seriously wounded, the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reported. They are 10 military servicemen and 2 civilians, one from Kharkiv Oblast and one from Mariupol.

Russian attacks

Over the past day, Russian invaders shelled 92 villages and towns in seven regions of Ukraine. As a result, 12 civilians died, and 32 were injured.

• In Sumy Oblast, the Russians shelled at least 6 communities over the past day. 20 mortar hits were recorded in the Yunakivska community. A farm building, refrigeration equipment and power line were damaged. In the Khotyn community, six private houses were damaged by mortar shelling.
• In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian troops carried out 81 attacks on the civilian infrastructure of 16 towns and villages in the past day. 14 reports of destroyed properties have been filed.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, the enemy fired at 11 villages. A 65-year-old woman in Kupyansk was hospitalized with an injury. A residential building was damaged in Bohuslavka village in the Izyum district. Yesterday afternoon in Vovchanski Khutory village of Chuhuyiv District, a shop was damaged due to shelling.
• In Luhansk Oblast, the Russian forces once again subjected settlements along the front line to massive artillery shelling, hitting Novoselivske, Nevske, and Bilohorivka.
• In Donetsk Oblast, at least 6 towns and villages were hit by Russian fire. 38 residential buildings (including 20 multi-apartment buildings), a tax inspectorate building, a gas pipeline, a kindergarten, three cars, an Avdiivka coke and chemical plant workshop, an electrical circuit breaker, and a power line were damaged. Six people died, and 15 were injured in Donetsk Oblast during the day.
• In Mykolaiv Oblast, on Monday morning, Russian troops fired artillery at the water area of the Ochakiv community.
• Over the past day, the enemy shelled Kherson Oblast 20 times, including Kherson, firing 131 shells from various types of weapons. One person died. The Russian invaders continued the forced distribution of Russian passports among residents of the temporarily captured territory of Kherson Oblast.

Mine danger

In the Novgorod-Siversky district of Chernihiv Oblast, 2 civilian cars were blown up by landmines, killing 4 people. A 60-year-old man died of mine explosion near Shlyakhove village of the Beryslav community, Kherson Oblast.

Energy

Electricity production in Ukraine is sufficient to cover consumption; the power system maintains a sufficient capacity reserve, Ukrenergo reports. There is no electricity import. There are no restrictions in “Ukrenergo” networks. The situation with electricity supply is difficult in the frontline regions, where settlements suffer from shelling by the Russians and the electricity supply network is damaged.

Occupied territories

Occupation authorities in the left bank part of Kherson Oblast prepare for September 2023 Russian local elections, spokesman of the operational command “South” Vladyslav Nazarov said. So far, three Russian parties, namely United Russia, KPRF and LDPR have registered their branches in the occupied Ukrainian territories. The heads of some of the branches come from Russia or occupied Crimea.

Collaborator Maksym Zubarev was injured due to a car explosion in the temporarily occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Later it was reported that Zubarev died in a hospital. He was among the first to cooperate with the Russian occupation forces and headed the Yakymivka occupation administration. Ukrainian partisans claimed responsibility for the attack.

Russia continues integrating the newly annexed Ukrainian regions. Russian Education Ministry issued an order allowing children from the newly annexed regions to apply to Russian colleges and universities without standardized testing. Also, their high school graduation certificates received in Ukraine will be accepted without providing a certificate of recognition of foreign education. President Putin meanwhile signed laws on the integration of the regions into the Russian judicial system.

Operational situation

General conclusion:

• The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions;
• The Russian advance trying to capture Avdiivka was stopped; enemy units retreated from some positions under the pressure of the Ukrainian Joint Forces;
• The pace of the Russian assault on Bakhmut continues to decrease compared to the previous two-week period; the regrouping of Russian troops in the area of the city continues.

Battleline:

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled over 70 Russian attacks in different directions. Bilohorivka, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Maryinka and their suburbs remain at the epicenter of hostilities;
• The Russian forces attacked unsuccessfully in the areas of Bilohorivka and Verkhnyokamianske of Luhansk Oblast; Ivanivka, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, and Maryinka of Donetsk Oblast; 20 attacks were repelled in the area of Bakhmut, 15 – near Avdiivka and Maryinka;
• Russian troops advanced to the northwest of Kreminna;
• Russian troops continued to attack Bakhmut and its surroundings. They captured the AZOM plant in northern Bakhmut. The Ukrainian Joint Forces launched a missile attack on the plant’s territory.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked the railway depot of the Melitopol station with HIMARS anti-aircraft missiles.

Change in enemy disposition: no information available.

Escalation indicators: not identified

Possible operation situation developments:

• After the Russian troops complete the regrouping in the Bakhmut area, an intensification of fighting should be expected.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The Russian fleet built up the grouping of surface ships and submarines at sea to 9. They are in their patrolling areas near the coast of Crimea. Among them, one frigate and two project 636.3 submarines are carriers of Kalibr missiles (a total of up to 16 missiles on board) located in the area of the firing position southeast of Sevastopol.
• One patrol ship is in the Sea of Azov.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the northwestern part of the Black Sea. A total of 24 combat sorties were made over the past day. Control of the air situation and operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U and Il-22 AEW&C aircraft.
• The Russian special Tu-204-300 aircraft with the call sign RSD523 landed at Belbek Airport in Sevastopol on April 3, as evidenced by the Flightradar24 portal. The liner took off at 7:30 a.m. from Moscow’s Vnukovo airport. It is not known who exactly was on the Russian government plane.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 03.04.23

Personnel – almost 175,160 people (+610);

Tanks – 3,619 (+1);

Armored combat vehicles – 6,993 (+7);

Artillery systems – 2,694 (+7)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 527 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 280 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,553 (+16); Aircraft – 306 (0);

Helicopters – 291 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,262 (+13); Intercepted cruise missiles – 911 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings raised the rating of the Ukrainian national Ukrzaliznytsia rail company to the level of ССС+, the company’s press service reported. The company stressed that the rating of Ukrzaliznytsia was raised to the level of the sovereign rating of Ukraine, which is the maximum possible result under the current wartime conditions.

International diplomatic aspect

Poland has already delivered “several” MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, according to Marcin Przydacz, a foreign affairs adviser to the Polish President. German weapon-producing company Rheinmetall is building a military maintenance and logistics hub in Romania nearby the Ukrainian border. The hub will be operational this month and will service the weapon systems and equipment provided to Ukraine, including self-propelled howitzers, Leopard 2 and Challenger tanks, Marder IFVs, Fuchs armored transport vehicles, and military trucks. Electro Optic Systems, an Australian defense company, has inked a A$120-million deal to export its Remote Weapons System (RWS) to Ukraine. The RWS can be integrated into various vehicles and platforms and used for a broad range of mission profiles while ensuring full weapon readiness as the crew operates the system while protected within the vehicle.

Sanna Marin, a vocal supporter of Ukraine, has lost elections and might be replaced by the center- right party’s leader Petteri Orpo. “First to Ukraine: we stand by you, with you,” the leader of the National Coalition Party said. “We cannot accept this terrible war. And we will do all that is needed to help Ukraine, the Ukrainian people, because they fight for us. This is clear. And the message to Putin is: go away from Ukraine because you will lose,” Orpo said.

Germany’s Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck made an unannounced visit to Ukraine with a delegation of business representatives. The visit focuses on the reconstruction of Ukraine and cooperation in the energy sector. The Vice-Chancellor intended to give “a signal that we believe it will be victorious, that it will be rebuilt, that there is an interest from Europe not only to support it in times of need but that Ukraine will also be an economically strong partner in the future.”

Vladimir Putin has established “Defenders of the Fatherland,” a state-run fund to support the “participants” in the war in Ukraine. The fund, to be chaired by Putin’s niece, aims “to create conditions that ensure a decent life and active work of war veterans and their families.” Meanwhile, according to the FT, Russia’s security services confiscate the passports of senior officials and state company executives to prevent them from fleeing abroad.

The Kremlin continues its nuclear saber-rattling by announcing the formation of a division of special-purpose nuclear submarines in Kamchatka. The designated division submarines would carry the Poseidon torpedoes, a Wunderwaffe, Russian officials claim capable of sweeping off the entire coast of the U.S. Russia’s ambassador to Belarus announced that the nuclear weapons would be placed near the western border of the host country. “The fact that there is a lot of noise [in the Western media about Russian plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus] is already good. Finally, they pay attention to the fact that there should be a certain parity… Russia and Belarus are the territories of the Union States and are legalized, in contrast to the territory of countries where the United States deploys its nuclear weapons. For them, these countries are just puppets, while we have a single space,” Boris Gryzlov said.

Russia, relevant news

Russia will suspend the payment of contributions to the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly for 2023, the Speaker of the Russian State Duma Viacheslav Volodin said. He also said the Russian State Duma is drafting amendments that will ban the activities of the International Criminal Court in Russia. There is also a proposition to introduce criminal liability for calls to execute decisions of international bodies whose activities are directed against the Russian Federation.

Louis Dreyfus (LDC), one of the world’s leading traders, will stop exporting Russian grain from July 1, Russian publication Kommersant reports.

---

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020 and are involved in security studies, defence policy research and advocacy. Currently all our activity is focused on stopping the ongoing war.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email to cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are independent, non-government, non-partisan and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent