CDS Daily brief (04.04.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• At night the Russian army attacked the south of Ukraine with 17 kamikaze drones. Air defense shot down 14 of them. The Russian military attacked eight Ukrainian regions; at least 5 civilians died, and 5 were injured.
• The forced evacuation of 126 children has been announced in 21 towns and villages of Donetsk Oblast.
• Demining of the priority 470 thousand hectares of potentially contaminated agricultural land will cost about 1.5 billion dollars.

Military:

• The enemy tries to create a quantitative advantage in the area of Bilohorivka, but cannot succeed;
• The enemy is building up its strike capabilities in the Kreminna area;
• The enemy limited the use of guided aerial bombs in Kherson Oblast due to bad weather conditions.
• Four Russian An-124 military transport aircraft arrived at Gomel (Belarus) airport and delivered a cargo of anti-aircraft guided missiles for S-300 or S-400 air defense systems. Starting from March 25, seven Russian military transport planes landed at the Gomel airport, delivering large cargoes.
• Russian forces have erected defensive lines along key land supply routes and logistics hubs in Crimea, including along the E105 highway south of Chongar. In general, up to 20 battalion-tactical groups are concentrated in the northern part of the peninsula.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Within 7-10 days, we should expect an intensification of hostilities in the Lyman direction, in particular in the area of Kreminna and Serebryansk forests;
• The intensity of hostilities in the areas of Vuhledar, Maryinka and Avdiyivka will decrease against the background of the intensification of hostilities in Bakhmut;

International:

• Finland joined NATO as a 31 state, bringing new capabilities. It is Russia’s strategic defeat, yet it may be a step forward for Russians to get their country back to normality.
• While in Kyiv, Mike Pompeo said that it is in the U.S. national interest to provide the necessary support to Ukraine. He also advised not to “worry about American elections a year and a half away” and “focus on the things that can be impacted here” instead.
• “There is overwhelming bipartisan support in America to continue assisting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression,” Rep. Mike Turner told President Volodymyr Zelensky.
• En route to Beijing, the European Commission President called on China to rein in Russia’s moves in Ukraine. “China is a firm supporter and active promoter of the peaceful settlement of the Ukraine crisis,” was a formal reply by the MFA. At the same time, China and Eritrea were only the U.N. Human Rights Council members who voted against a resolution to extend the mandate of an investigative body probing possible war crimes committed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• Russia’s Defence Minister stated that Belarus has started operating dual-use aircraft and dual-capable Iskander-M missile systems. Russia and Belarus did not even pretend to carry out legal procedures for such a move.

Humanitarian aspect:

The forced evacuation of 126 children has been announced in 21 towns and villages of Donetsk Oblast, said the Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine. There are five “White Angels” police evacuation crews working in the region. They ensure the safe removal of children in armored vehicles. “Evacuated children accompanied by one of their parents or a legal representative will be provided with free shelter, social guarantees, humanitarian aid and psychological support,” the Ministry of Reintegration emphasized.

More than 1 million people who left since the beginning of the war returned to the de-occupied territories of Kherson, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Kyiv Oblasts. And almost 14,000 enterprises have resumed work.

Russian attacks

On the night of April 4, the Russian army attacked the south of Ukraine with kamikaze drones. According to the Air Force Command, 14 out of 17 drones were shot down by air defense forces. The speaker of the Odesa Regional Military Administration, Serhiy Bratchuk, said that one of the drones hit one of the enterprises in Odesa Oblast, which caused a fire. The damage resulted in a partial power outage in several Odesa districts, but the power supply was restored later.

Over the past day, Russian invaders shelled 111 villages and towns in several regions of Ukraine. As a result, at least 5 civilians died, and 5 were injured. According to the consolidated information of the regional military administrations, the Russian army carried out attacks on eight Oblasts of Ukraine, using, in particular, aviation, drones, and artillery.

Consequences of enemy shelling on the morning of April 4

• 13 kamikaze drones were shot down over Odesa Oblast. One impacted the enterprise. No victims were reported.
• At night, 1 kamikaze drone was shot down over Mykolayiv Oblast.
• At night, the Russians shelled the center of Seredyna-Buda in Sumy Oblast; 3 people were injured. The House of Culture and administration building were damaged. The Esman community was also under fire.
• On April 3, enemy shelling killed 4 residents of Donetsk Oblast: 2 in Toretsk, 1 in Avdiivka, and 1 in Torske. 3 more people in the region were injured.
• The Russian occupiers shelled Kherson Oblast 61 times; 1 person was killed. A medical facility and residential buildings were damaged in Kherson. Another 113 people were evacuated from the region’s territory, liberated from the Russians.

• On April 3, the enemy continued shelling the settlements of the Kupyansk, Chuhuyiv and Kharkiv districts of Kharkiv Oblast. 1 person was injured in Vovchansk. In Tykhe village the infrastructural facilities and private households were destroyed.
• The enemy carried out 3 controlled airstrikes, 3 UAV attacks and 44 artillery shells at populated areas of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. An educational institution in the Polohy district was damaged.

Today, April 4, the Russian invaders dropped two aerial bombs from two Su-35 planes on Pechenyugy village in Chernihiv Oblast. A private house and outbuildings were damaged. There is no information about the victims yet.

Demining

• According to the calculations of the World Bank, priority demining of the territory of Ukraine will cost about 1.5 billion dollars; the priority plan defines 470 thousand hectares of potentially contaminated agricultural land. This is reported by the European Business Association (EBA).
• EU Ambassador to Ukraine Matti Maasikas stated that up to 30% of the Ukrainian territory might be contaminated with explosive objects. “This is 4.5 times larger than the area of Switzerland”. He noted that humanitarian mine action is a priority for the European Union, and its importance continues to grow.
• The major part of the territory of the Kyiv Oblast has already been cleared of explosive objects, stated the deputy head of the pyrotechnic division of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, Lt. Col. Denys Trachuk. “There are still some cases when people discover ammunition, and we respond promptly. Also, people return to their homes and turn to us so that we can examine them for GNP. But in general, most of the territory of Kyiv region has already been cleared,” Trachuk clarified.

POWs

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, Ukraine has already returned 2,005 people from Russian captivity, said Andriy Yusov, spokesman for the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka directions;
• The enemy tries to create a quantitative advantage in the area of Bilohorivka, but cannot succeed;
• The enemy is building up its strike capabilities in the Kreminna area;
• The rate of shelling by the Russians in Kherson Oblast decreased from 90-100 shellings per day last week to 50-60 this week;
• The enemy limited the use of guided aerial bombs in Kherson Oblast due to bad weather conditions.

Battleline:

• The Defense Forces repelled more than 69 enemy attacks in various directions. Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, Maryinka and their surroundings remain at the epicenter of hostilities.
• The enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Nevske, Bilohorivka, Kreminna, Dibrova, Verkhnyokamianske, Torske, Terny, Makiyivka and Serebryansk forestry of Luhansk Oblast; Orihove-Vasylivka, Ivanivske, Novokalynove, Krasnohorivka, Avdiyivka, Severne, Pervomaiske and Maryinka of Donetsk Oblast; 32 attacks in the Bakhmut area were repelled. Units of the 76th Air assault division, 98th airborne division, 4th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd army corps, and the 13th BARS detachment operate in the Kreminna area.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced to the southwest of Chervonopopivka.
• Heavy fighting continued in the Ivanove area of the T0504 Kostyantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Bakhmut highway. The Ukrainian Joint Forces continued to repulse Russian attacks on Bakhmut and in the area of Orihove-Vasylivka, Ivanovske, and Predtechne.
• Russian troops continued unsuccessful offensive actions near Avdiyivka itself, Severne, Novokalynove, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, and Maryinka.
• The Ukrainian Defense Force advanced in the Donetsk Oblast and captured positions abandoned by Russian units.
• Units of the 87th and 9th regiments of the 1st Army Corps continued to attack Avdiivka from the south and northeast.
• The enemy units of the 150th motorized rifle division repelled the attacks of the Joint Forces in the Maryinka area.

Change in enemy disposition:

• In Bakhmut, units of the “Wagner” PMC, which have lost combat capability, are replaced by units of the 98th airborne division. The 200th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 14th Army Corps, which lost combat capability in the battles for Avdiivka, was concentrated in the Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian forces have erected defensive lines along key land supply routes and logistics hubs in Crimea, including near Armyansk, along the E105 highway south of Chongar, the E97 highway near Filativka, Vorontsivka, and along the beaches of Yevpatoria in western Crimea. During the last few weeks, near Vitin, Medvedivka, Armyansk, Maslovo and Novoivanivka, the occupation authorities have focused on constructing new defense structures. In general, up to 20 battalion-tactical groups are concentrated in the northern part of the peninsula for protection and defense.

Escalation indicators:

• Russian Airborne Forces units (98th airborne division or 76th Air assault division in the Kreminna area) received TOS-1A “Solntsepek” heavy flamethrower systems;
• The units of the Russian Airborne Forces increasingly actively support the operations of PMC “Wagner” in Bakhmut;
• Four Russian An-124 military transport aircraft arrived at Gomel airport and delivered a cargo of anti-aircraft guided missiles for S-300 or S-400 air defense systems. Starting from March 25, seven Russian military transport planes landed at the Gomel airport, delivering large cargoes.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Within 7-10 days, we should expect an intensification of hostilities in the Lyman direction, in particular in the area of Kreminna and Serebryansk forests;
• The intensity of hostilities in the areas of Vuhledar, Maryinka and Avdiyivka will decrease against the background of the intensification of hostilities in Bakhmut;

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The enemy increased the grouping of surface ships and submarines in the sea to 9. They are in patrolling areas near the coast of Crimea. Among them, one frigate pr. 11356, one corvette “Buyan-M” and one submarine pr. 636.3, carriers of Kalibr missiles (total of up to 20 missiles on board), are in the area of the firing position southeast of Sevastopol.
• One patrol ship is in the Sea of Azov.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske. A total of 32 combat sorties were carried out over the past day. Control of the air situation and operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U and Il-22 AEW&C aircraft.
• In Kherson Oblast, 228 out of 696 towns and villages are under the control of Ukraine. This includes all 151 in the Beryslav district, 75 in the Kherson district and 2 in the Kakhovka district. 468 settlements (67%) of the left-bank part of the region are under temporary Russian occupation. In the Kherson direction, the enemy continues shelling with mortars, rocket and barrel artillery, tanks and UAVs at the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and populated areas along the right bank of the Dnipro River. Also, the aggressors continue to use guided aerial bombs for attacks on populated areas. In particular, airstrikes were again carried out on the industrial zone of Beryslav on April 3; Kherson and Antonivka were under enemy fire.
• The intensity of the movement of military equipment by road and rail transport from Crimea to the Kherson region remains stable. From the Crimean side, railway freight trains arrive on the territory of the Kherson region, unloading military equipment and ammunition at the “Kalanchak”, “Brylivka”, and “Novooleksiyivka” stations.
• During the Shahid-136 kamikaze drone attack on Odesa on the night of April 3-4, the enemy used a slightly different maneuver scheme. The drones were launched from the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov, approaching from the eastern direction at low altitudes. Because of this, 3 hits were recorded (14 out of 17 drones were destroyed by air defense).

“Grain initiative”.

• As part of the Grain Agreement, a record number of 25 ships were sent from Ukraine to China in March 2023. The total volume of Ukrainian food on them was 1.2 million tons. For comparison: since the beginning of 2023, 9.6 million tons of cargo were sent by sea, of which 3.1 million tons went to the Middle East. During the “Grain Agreement”, China became the main buyer of Ukrainian grain, receiving almost a third of 26 million tons of cargo transported through the sea corridor. Most of these cargoes are grain and corn. The current volume of grain supply is almost the highest in the history of Ukrainian-Chinese agricultural trade and will probably surpass the record year of 2021 for the two countries. At that time, China bought 28 million tons of corn on world markets, about 7 million tons of which came from Ukraine. Over the past decade, China’s annual demand for corn has grown steadily, reaching nearly 300 million tons in 2022. Despite its best efforts, China is only able to meet 270 million tons, forcing Beijing to rely on imports to cover the 10% deficit. From October 2022 to February 2023, corn imports into China amounted to 9.2 million tons, of which almost 4 million tons were of Ukrainian origin. According to this indicator, Ukraine, for the first time, overtook the USA, which previously held the first place, but lost it due to a decrease in supplies.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.04.23

Personnel – almost 175,690 people (+530);

Tanks – 3,627 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 6,999 (+6);

Artillery systems – 2,697 (+3)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 528 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 280 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,562 (+9); Aircraft – 306 (0);

Helicopters – 291 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,277 (+15); Intercepted cruise missiles – 911 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

International diplomatic aspect

“Finland has become one of the small [Russia’s fixation on the size and “greatness” is well- known], uninfluential member countries of the Alliance, having lost its special voice [which means being exposed to coercion by much bigger Russia] in international affairs,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry expressed its impotent malice. Russia threatened with “retaliatory measures, both of a military-technical and other nature.” However, Finland’s accession to NATO is Russia’s strategic defeat.

• Firstly, “Putin had failed in his attempt to slam NATO’s door shut,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said. The Kremlin’s blackmail failed, and instead of rolling back to the 1997 setting, NATO is widening the space of freedom and security.
• Secondly, the Alliance is strengthening itself with a capable and interoperable force (up to a quarter of the population as trained reserves, 200 Leopard 1 and 2 MBTs, 279 MLRS, sizable air force which will gain 64 F-35A jets).
• Thirdly, the defense of the Baltic states is strengthened by more robust logistics and lethal forces, while Russia’s freedom of maneuver between St. Petersburg, Kaliningrad exclave, and other destinations will be narrowed.
• Fourthly, the overall length of the border with NATO has been doubled, and, more importantly, Finland will provide NATO with additional possibilities to monitor, deter and, in the worst-case scenario, engage Russia’s strategic nuclear forces deployed in the Kola peninsula.

• Finally, the Alliance will have more capabilities to project its power to the Arctic, which Russia is trying to militarize and impose a monopoly on presence.

“NATO became the only effective security guarantee in the region amid Russian aggression. We expect #NATOSummit in Vilnius will bring Ukraine closer to our Euro-Atlantic goal,” Ukraine’s President twitted. With the membership of Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and, hopefully, Belarus, Russia won’t be able to carry out its neo-imperial expansion, which would give the Russian people a chance to sort out their own things and bring their country to normality.

“I’ve seen the damage caused by Putin’s invasion. And I’ve been inspired by the bravery of the Ukrainian people. One thing is clear: helping Ukraine end this war is in America’s core interest… Supporting Ukraine isn’t about abstract ideals like “global democracy”: it’s about strengthening OUR national and economic security… The Ukrainian people have endured indescribable suffering. But they’re resilient. They’re not asking for American troops—just our support. We should give it to them,” said Mike Pompeo, a former Secretary of State, known for proclaiming the Crimean Declaration on non-recognition of the illegal annexation of the peninsula. “Stop worrying about American elections a year and a half away. Focus on the things that can be impacted here,” one of the Republican candidates for the White House advised. “I wish the Administration had provided more weapons faster. I’ve said this repeatedly. They have been slow. They have been overly concerned about provoking Vladimir Putin. Therefore, they have been late. I think that they provided these weapon systems, longer-range capabilities, better intelligence, all the tools that the Ukrainian military needs. Had they done that a quicker, better, faster, it might be the case that we wouldn’t be where we are,” Mike Pompeo said.

“There is overwhelming bipartisan support in America to continue assisting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression,” Rep. Mike Turner, Chairman of the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the leader of a bipartisan delegation, told President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The Pentagon announces sending another $2.6 billion military aid package to Ukraine. In the near future, the United States will provide Ukraine with ammunition for HIMARS, multiple launch rocket systems, missiles for Patriot and NASAMS air defense systems, as well as anti-tank systems, small arms, and heavy equipment worth up to $500 million. In addition, the package included air defense systems, artillery and tank ammunition, mortar systems, missiles and anti- tank systems worth $2.1 billion. They are ordered from American enterprises, but it is unclear when they will be delivered to Ukraine.

En route to Beijing, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said China should play a constructive role in bringing peace to Ukraine and called on PRC to rein in Russia’s moves in Ukraine. “If there is a single country that can lead Moscow to change its calculations, it is China,” expressed optimism of a French official. “China is a firm supporter and active promoter of the peaceful settlement of the Ukraine crisis,” was a formal reply by the Foreign Ministry’s spokeswoman. Xi Jinping hasn’t called Volodymyr Zelensky after warmly spending time in Moscow.

Meanwhile, China and Eritrea opposed a resolution adopted (28 ayes and 17 abstainers) by the U.N. Human Rights Council to extend the mandate of an investigative body probing possible war crimes committed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Part of the Belarusian attack aircraft acquired the ability to strike at enemy targets with nuclear weapons. In addition, the Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system was handed over to the Armed Forces of Belarus. It can use missiles, both conventional and nuclear,” Russia’s Defence Minister stated. Whether it’s a bluff or true will remain to be seen. No legal agreements on nuclear weapons deployment were signed, neither rubber-stamp parliaments voted for, nor was a referendum in Belarus conducted. Though neither Russia nor Belarus is a democratic state with the rule of law, both regimes previously pretended to be one.

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