CDS Daily brief (05.04.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Russian military continued to shell peaceful Ukrainian towns and villages. There were killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians.
• 245 people, including children, remain captive by the Russians in the temporarily occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Russian aggressors are uncontrollably cutting down the forest in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. If continued, this will inevitably lead to catastrophic consequences for the environment.
• 78% of Ukrainians positively evaluate the foreign policy of the Ukrainian government in the conditions of war, and only 6% negatively. Among the most favorable by Ukrainians foreign politicians are Boris Johnson (87%), Andrzej Duda (86%) and Joe Biden (83%).

Military:

• Enemy forces in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction use more armored vehicles and act more cautiously in ground battles than Russian troops in other areas of the front. They try to preserve forces in this direction before the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive;
• The Russian command, trying to maintain the current pace of offensive operations in and around Bakhmut, continues to strengthen the “Wagner” PMC detachments in the area; the 98th airborne division was almost fully deployed to Bakhmut, creating a numerical advantage over the Ukrainian defenders;
• Russian troops moved to positional defense near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, preparing for expected counterattacks by the Ukrainian Joint Forces;
• Russian troops transferred heavy equipment, BMPs and ammunition from the rear of Mariupol to the direction of Rozivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

International:

• The U.S. announced another $2.6 billion security assistance package. Ukraine and Poland agreed on delivering MiG-29 fighter Jets, Piorun MANPADS, Rosomak APCs, and Rak self- propelled mortars.
• “We do not enable nor do we encourage the Ukrainians to strike outside of Ukraine,” John Kirby said.
• Ukraine and Poland resolved the cheap grain issue, which Polish farmers had expressed their concern about.
• Emmanuel Macron believes China may help to stop the war, though Beijing’s messaging favors Russia, which PRC considered useful for demolishing the Western “hegemony.”
• Russia tries to use its U.N. Security Council’s presidency to spread lies and propaganda. The U.K. has blocked an attempt to broadcast a testimony of the ICC wanted person being sought for war crimes.

Humanitarian aspect:

School bus drivers, who heroically evacuated the population from the northern and eastern territories of Kyiv Oblast and Chernihiv at the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia and transported humanitarian aid and medicines, were awarded state awards by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. In total, during the occupation of Kyiv Oblast, school bus drivers made 669 trips and saved thousands of lives. 114 drivers received awards, including five who were awarded posthumously. “Despite constant shelling and minefields, more than 70 vehicles entered the routes every time”

Russian attacks

Consequences of enemy shelling

• On April 4, enemy shelling killed 4 civilians in Donetsk Oblast: 3 in Lastochkine and 1 in Krasnohorivka. Another 11 people in the region were injured. In Kostyantynivka, a hospital, a registration center for homeless people, private and multi-apartment buildings, a shop and a former coffee shop were damaged. On April 5, Russian invaders shelled the village of Oleksievo-Druzhkivka (preliminary, with cluster munition). As a result, two people were killed, and four were injured. The enemy also carried out a tank attack on Velyka Novosilka; one civilian was killed, and two more people were wounded.
• Last day, the front-line territories of Vasylivka and Polohy districts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast were under fire. Houses, shops, and farms were damaged.
• The Russian occupiers shelled Kherson Oblast 50 times on April 4. 3 wounded civilians were reported. On April 5, the occupiers fired at two utility companies in Kherson. Preliminary, no victims.
• On April 4, the enemy attacked the border and front-line settlements of the Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Chuhuyiv and Bohodukhiv districts of Kharkiv Oblast. Buildings, a garage and a private car were damaged in the Odnorobivka village.
• Yesterday, the enemy fired artillery at the water area of Ochakiv hromada of Mykolayiv Oblast.
• Yesterday evening, the Russians aircraft hit Pechenyugy village, Chernihiv Oblast. A private house and outbuildings were damaged.
• On April 5,   the   Russian   army   shelled   the   civilian   infrastructure   of   Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 14 houses were destroyed, a gas pipeline was damaged, and a power line was cut.

Mine Danger

In Kharkiv Oblast, a 16-year-old boy was blown up by an unknown explosive device; he was hospitalized. The State Emergency Service reminded once again to observe safety measures strictly: do not visit forests, forest strips, fields, river floodplains and other open spaces, especially those of previous battles or that were under occupation. According to Kharkiv Oblast military administration, 447 settlements in the region need demining; the density of mines is very high.

Occupied territories

245 people, including children, are being held captive by the Russians in the temporarily occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Yuriy Malashko, the head of the Zaporizhzhia OMA, said this on the air of the national telethon. He also noted that Russian invaders had strengthened forced

passporting. People cannot receive a salary or medical assistance without a Russian passport. As earlier reported, the mayor of Dniprorudne, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Yevhen Matveyev, is among the civilian hostages held captive by the Russians for more than a year.

Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Malyar announced on her social network that Russian aggressors are uncontrollably cutting down the forest in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. “Since the beginning of the occupation, Russian enterprises have organized forest harvesting in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and other temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine,” Malyar said. She noted that most of the forest massifs in this region are of artificial origin. They were specially created to protect against wind, soil and water erosion, performing the function of recreational and forest improvement plantations. If continued, this will inevitably lead to catastrophic consequences for the environment. At the end of March, in the Mariupol area, the intensive movement of convoys of Russian trucks loaded with freshly felled roundwood on the E105 and M18 highways was recorded.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka areas;
• Enemy forces operating in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction use more armored vehicles and act more cautiously in ground battles than Russian troops in other areas of the front. They try to preserve forces in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction before the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive;
• The command of the Russian forces continues to strengthen the “Wagner” PMC detachments in the Bakhmut area due to their significant losses, trying to maintain the current pace of offensive operations in and around the city;
• Russian troops moved to positional defense near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, preparing for expected counterattacks by units of the Ukrainian Joint Forces;
• Russian troops transferred heavy equipment, BMPs and ammunition from the rear of Mariupol to the direction of Rozivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Battleline:

• Units of the Defense Forces repelled more than 60 enemy attacks in various directions. Bakhmut and Maryinka remain at the epicenter of hostilities.
• The enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas south of Kreminna and south of Spirne in Luhansk Oblast; tried to take full control of the city of Bakhmut; conducted unsuccessful offensive efforts in the area of Bohdanivka, Novokalynove, Severne, Pervomaiske and Maryinka in Donetsk Oblast.
• The enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Kreminna, Nevske, Dibrova and Serebryansk forest. The enemy attacked the positions of the Defense Forces near Zhuravka creek; enemy units of the 1st TA attacked near Kuzemivka. The enemy units unsuccessfully tried to advance near Nevske, Torske and Bilohorivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced to the northeast of Verkhnyokamianske.
• The enemy advanced in southern Bakhmut closer to the “Avangard” stadium and cleared the territory of the AZOM industrial complex; mercenaries from the “Wagner” PMC seized the Bakhmut-1 railway station. Battles also took place near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Khromove, and Ivanovske. The occupiers carried out an assault west of Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka.

• The enemy achieved minor successes west of Novobakhmutivka, tried to advance to Avdiyivka from the southwest and east, and conducted an assault near Severne, Pervomaiske, and Maryinka.
• The Ukrainian Joint Forces launched a counterattack northeast of Avdiyivka. They retook positions northwest of Novoselivka and advanced close to it.
• Russian troops resumed attacks near Mykilske in an attempt to bypass Vuhledar.

Change in enemy disposition:

• The Russian volunteer reconnaissance and assault brigade “Alexander Nevsky” continues the formation of three new volunteer assault battalions named after the Russian saints Danylo Moskovsky, Dmitry Donsky and Alexander Peresvet. The brigade also includes the sabotage and reconnaissance unit “Borz”.

Escalation indicators:

• The 98th airborne division of the Russian Airborne Forces was almost fully deployed to Bakhmut, which made it possible to create a numerical advantage over the Ukrainian defenders.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The withdrawal of units of the Ukrainian Joint Forces to the reserve defense lines in Bakhmut and the concentration of units of the “Wagner” PMC on sounding the directions of attacks will lead to a temporary decrease in the operational pace of Russian troops in Bakhmut.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The enemy increased the grouping of surface ships and submarines at sea to 15. They are in patrolling areas near the coast of Crimea. Among them, one frigate pr. 11356, three corvettes “Buyan-M” and two submarines pr. 636.3, carriers of “Kalibr” missiles, are in the area of the firing position southeast of Sevastopol. These 6 carriers can carry up to 40 Kalibr missiles (most likely, the actual number of missiles is less).
• One patrol ship is in the Sea of Azov.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske. A total of 28 combat sorties were carried out over the past day. Control of the air situation and operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U and Il-22 AEW&C aircraft.
• The enemy did not conduct active offensive actions in the Azov region, preparing for a possible offensive of the Defense Forces.
• Kherson Oblast has the smallest concentration of enemy forces and assets (compared to the eastern part of the front); the Dnipro River is a kind of geographical division line. Combat actions are reduced to artillery and missile attacks and special operations forces actions on islands in the Dnipro River delta. The AFU had success on the islands of Velykyi Potemkin and Kruglyk.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.04.23

Personnel – almost 176,240 people (+550);

Tanks – 3,629 (+2);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,005 (+6);

Artillery systems – 2,707 (+10)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 532 (+4); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 280 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,573 (+11); Aircraft – 306 (0);

Helicopters – 291 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,283 (+6); Intercepted cruise missiles – 911 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

78% of respondents positively evaluate the foreign policy of the Ukrainian government in the conditions of war, and only 6% – negatively, according to the survey conducted in February-March 2023, said Andriy Bychenko, director of the Razumkov Center Sociology Service (reported by Ukrinform). According to the study, Ukrainian foreign policy is quite effective in all directions. In particular, the policy of strengthening Ukraine’s relations with countries worldwide and international organizations, disseminating objective information, improving the international image of Ukraine, providing external support for resistance to Russian aggression, and promoting Ukrainian initiatives on international platforms is positively evaluated by about 86%; policy of integration into EU and NATO supported by 81.2% and 77.6%, respectively.

As for foreign politicians, the majority of Ukrainians express a favorable attitude towards Boris Johnson (87%), Andrzej Duda (86%) and Joe Biden (83%). Also, a large share of Ukrainian citizens has a positive attitude towards Ursula von der Leyen (61%), Emmanuel Macron (59.5%), Recep Erdogan (58%) and Justin Trudeau (51%). The majority of respondents also expressed a positive attitude towards Olaf Scholz (50%) and Rishi Sunak (45%). A negative attitude towards Vladimir Putin prevails at 97%, followed by Alexander Lukashenko (92%), Viktor Orban (60%), Angela Merkel (52%), Xi Jinping (51%), and Donald Trump (49%).

77% of Ukrainians have a negative attitude towards Russian citizens, and only 2% of respondents express a positive attitude. Also, the vast majority (97%) of respondents have a negative attitude towards the government and the State Duma of Russia.

International diplomatic aspect

The U.S. announced another $2.6 billion security assistance package, including ammunition for HIMARS, air defense interceptors, tank and artillery rounds, anti-armor systems, mortar systems, rockets, small arms, and heavy equipment transport vehicles. Ukraine and Poland signed an MoU

on the joint production of 125-mm tank rounds. The countries agreed on delivery of MiG-29 fighter Jets, Piorun MANPADS, Rosomak APCs, Rak self-propelled mortars and other weapons.

“We do not enable nor do we encourage the Ukrainians to strike outside of Ukraine,” White House National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications said. John Kirby was referring to Vladimir Putin’s accusation of the Western intelligence “encouraging” Ukraine to carry out “terrorist attacks” “against government officials and law enforcement agencies, journalists, public figures, school, and university teachers.” Vladimir Putin provided no evidence, nor he mentioned that the so-called Russian officials and law enforcement officers were Russia’s installed “authorities” on the occupied territories and so-called journalists were propagandists who were killing Ukrainians.

The Polish farmers expressed concern over cheap Ukrainian grain on the Polish market. “We discussed issues regarding Polish and Ukrainian farmers. We found a way out,” the Ukrainian President said. Earlier, Polish Agriculture Minister resigned from his post over the alleged European Commission’s draft decision to extend duty-free and quota-free grain imports from Ukraine until June 2024.

French President Emmanuel Macron insists that Europe must continue working with China, including on the war in Ukraine, due to “our shared responsibility for peace and stability.” He believes China can play a “major role” in the conflict in Ukraine because of its close relationship with Russia. However, the French President ignored Beijing’s messaging on the Ukrainian “crisis” and teaming up with Russia to demolish the Western “hegemony.”

The Russians try to exploit their Security Council’s presidency by spreading lies and propaganda. The U.K. has blocked a webcast of a UN Russia-called meeting on the “evacuation” of Ukrainian children from the war zone, calling on Russia’s children’s commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova, who is being sought for war crimes for deporting children from Ukraine, to answer for her actions in The Hague. She claimed children were taken for their safety, and Russia is coordinating with international organizations to return them to their families. Earlier, she said Russia transferred more than 5 million Ukrainians to its territory, including 700,000 children.

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