CDS Daily brief (06.04.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, the Ukrainian police have received more than 11,000 reports regarding the disappearance of children. 381 children are still missing. Half of the child population of Ukraine is abroad or internally displaced.
• There are 4.8 million internally displaced persons officially registered in Ukraine, of which 1.1 million received the status of displaced people for the second time.

• Russian military continued to shell peaceful Ukrainian towns and villages. There were killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians.
• World Bank forecasts Ukraine’s economy to grow by 0.5% this year after a staggering contraction of 29.2% in 2022, the year of the Russian invasion.

Military:

• The enemy continues its primary efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiyivka and Maryinka directions; out of 60 attacks per day, the enemy carried out 25 in the Maryinka area;
• The enemy command is taking measures to speed up the capture of Bakhmut. Using the advantage in manpower, it is trying to displace the units of the Defense Forces from the central, northern and southern parts of the city; However, the enemy command is in no hurry to introduce its operational reserves into the operation south of Bakhmut to speed up the capture of the city;
• The enemy completes a hidden regrouping of its forces northeast of Bakhmut for an offensive on the Siversk salient;
• The capture of Bakhmut is a secondary objective of the enemy. Its achievement will allow streamlining of the operational organization in this direction for the continuation of the operation;
• The enemy’s grouping in the Bakhmut direction requires the earliest possible cessation of hostilities. The hostilities make it difficult to maneuver its forces and tie down a significant number of troops;
• In the direction of Kreminna – Lyman, the enemy concentrated the most combat-capable troops, creating the highest operational density of troops.

International:

• China is not in harry to offer its peacemaking services as Xi will call Zelensky “at the right moment.” Macron said he ” can count on Xi to reason with Russia and bring everyone back to negotiating table,” while China insists on a ceasefire, which favors Russia. China blames the West for “adding fuel to the fire” and promotes Russia’s “legitimate” security concerns.
• The ROC Patriarch appointed a chief priest to motivate the Russian invasion forces.
• Only a tiny three percent of Russians are satisfied with the ICC’s warrant on Putin, accusing him of war crimes. The rest is either confused (34%), indifferent (31%), or outraged (22%).

Humanitarian aspect:

Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the police have received more than 11,000 applications and reports regarding the disappearance of children. 381 children are still missing, said the Deputy Head of the National Police Oleksandr Facevych at a press conference at the Ukraine-Ukrinform Media Center. The deputy head of the National Police emphasized that the number of Ukrainian children deported to the Russian Federation will reach several hundred thousand. Moreover, according to information from various international organizations, more than 2 million Ukrainian children were forced to leave for other countries, and about 3 million children are internally displaced, which is nearly half of the child population of Ukraine.

There are 4.8 million internally displaced persons officially registered in Ukraine, of which 1.1 million received the status of displaced people for the second time, meaning that since 2014, they first left the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, and after February 24, they were forced to move again, to the First Deputy Minister of Social Policy of Ukraine Daryna Marchak. Such a number of migrants puts significant pressure on the social protection system in all host communities because, in addition to housing, people need places in kindergartens, schools, and health care services. “But the biggest challenge is that we cannot predict the amount of infrastructure needed in the long term, how much capacity we will need. After all, we don’t know how many of these citizens plan to return home and how many will stay where they are now,” the deputy minister emphasized.

Russian attacks

Consequences of enemy shelling on the morning of April 6

• In Donetsk Oblast, on March 5, two people were killed by the enemy shellingin Oleksievo- Druzhkivka, two in Bakhmut and one in Serhiyivka. Another 9 people in the region were injured. In Bakhmut, a kindergarten, 2 private houses and 3 high-rise buildings were damaged. In Zvanivka, a school, a cultural center, a shop and more than 20 private houses were damaged.
• The Russian occupiers hit Kherson Oblast 42 times; 1 person was wounded. In Kherson, the enemy targeted critical infrastructure facilities and private and apartment buildings.
• Yesterday, the enemy fired mortars in the water area of Ochakiv hromada in Mykolayiv Oblast.
• The Polohy and Vasylivka districts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast were under fire. In Hulyaipole, enemy artillery targeted an agricultural enterprise and destroyed several apartments in residential quarters.
• At night, the Russians shelled the Bilopillia community of Sumy Oblast. There were damaged power lines.
• Yesterday, the enemy shelled the border settlements of Kupyansk (1 wounded), Kharkiv, Izyum and Chuhuyiv districts of Kharkiv Oblast. In the Dovgenke and Bohuslavka villages, 6 private buildings were damaged.

Mine Danger

In Kharkiv Oblast, visits to more than 750 cemeteries were prohibited due to mine danger. “Decisions of local authorities in close cooperation with units of the State Emergency Service and the National Police have determined the list of prohibited cemeteries to visit during the Easter holidays. First of all, this applies to those settlements that were under temporary occupation and where active hostilities took place,” said Oleg Sinegubov, head of the Oblast Military Administration.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiyivka and Maryinka directions; out of 60 attacks per day, the enemy carried out 25 in the Maryinka area;
• The enemy command is taking measures to speed up the capture of Bakhmut, using detachments of the “Wagner” PMC, assault groups of the 57th separate motorized rifle brigade, 76th Air assault division and 98th airborne division. After an unsuccessful attempt to cross the Bohdanivka-Khromove frontier, the enemy, using the advantage in manpower, is trying to displace the units of the Defense Forces from the central part of the city and its northern and southern parts, attacking “head-on”;
• However, the enemy command is in no hurry to introduce its operational reserves into the operation south of Bakhmut to speed up the capture of the city, limiting itself to maintaining the combat capability of the military units operating there at a minimally acceptable level;
• The enemy completes a hidden regrouping of its forces northeast of Bakhmut for an offensive on the Siversk salient, synchronizing its efforts north of Bakhmut with preparations for an offensive in the Lyman direction;
• The capture of Bakhmut is a secondary objective of the enemy, the achievement of which will allow streamlining of the operational organization in this direction for the continuation of the operation;
• The enemy’s grouping in the Bakhmut direction requires the earliest possible cessation of hostilities. The hostilities make it difficult to maneuver its forces and tie down a significant number of troops, hindering the rolling movement.

Battleline:

• Units of the Defense Forces repelled more than 60 enemy attacks in various directions. Bakhmut, Avdiyivka and Maryinka remain at the epicenter of hostilities.
• The enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Nevske and Serebryansk forestry in Luhansk Oblast. They tried to take full control of the city of Bakhmut, continued to storm it; unsuccessfully attacked the positions of the Defense Forces in the area of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Novokalynove, Avdiyivka and Maryinka in Donetsk Oblast.
• During the past week, the enemy attacked in the Krasnopolivka-Rozdolivka and Yakovlivka-Vesele directions with the forces of the 12th assault detachment of the “Wagner” PMC, the territorial forces rifle battalions and the mobilization reserve of the 2nd Army Corps; and with other units of the 2nd AC – in the Berestove-Vyimka direction and in Bilohorivka area simultaneously from the south-eastern direction and from Shypylivka.

Change in enemy disposition: not identified.

Escalation indicators:

• In the direction of Kreminna – Lyman, the enemy concentrated the most combat-capable troops of the “Consolidated Grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the South-Western theater of war”, creating the highest operational density of troops. A third of the grouping is fighting on the front line; the rest is preparing for further actions, being on the second line of defense.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy command will make efforts to eliminate the Siversk salient of the Defense Forces even before the end of the battles for Bakhmut by means of a simultaneous offensive from the northern and southern directions, simultaneously launching an offensive in the Lyman direction;
• To prepare the offensive in the Lyman direction, the enemy will try to take over the Zarichne-Torske area in the next 2-3 days and advance to the Siversky Donets River between Dronivka and Serebryanka;
• The most likely task of the enemy group in the Lyman direction is to reach the frontier along the Chornyi Zherebets River and to the Lyman. In the future – to force the Siversky Donets River from the north and take control of Siversk;
• It should be expected that the 6th motorized rifle division of the 3rd Army Corps will be put into operation in the Lyman direction in the event of a successful crossing of the Siversky Donets River;
• The end of the battles for Bakhmut will put the Russian military command in front of the need to choose the direction of further actions: an advance to the Kostiantynivka – Chasiv Yar line or an offensive in the direction of Pryvillya – Slovyansk or Pryvillya – Siversk.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The enemy’s grouping of surface ships and submarines at sea consists of 11 units. They are in patrolling areas near the coast of Crimea. Among them, two corvettes “Buyan-M” and two submarines pr 636.3, carriers of missiles “Kalibr”, are in the area of the firing position southeast of Sevastopol. These 4 carriers can carry up to 24 Kalibr missiles (most likely, the actual number of missiles is less).
• One patrol ship is in the Sea of Azov.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske. A total of 24 combat sorties were made over the past day. Control of the air situation and operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U and Il-22 AEW&C aircraft. Fortification ground defense structures are actively being created along the perimeters of the “Belbek” and “Hvardiyske” military airfields.

• Two radio-electronic reconnaissance aircraft from NATO forces, EP-3E and Gulfstream G550, were operating in the western part of the Black Sea water area for the purpose of airspace monitoring.
• At night, in the area of Armyansk and Suvorove village in the Krasnoperekopsk district of Crimea, an aerial fire strike was carried out on the places of compact deployment of the personnel of the Russian forces. According to unverified information, the drones attacked an abandoned farm where Russian soldiers were stationed. The fire was contained only in the morning. The occupation administration does not comment on this event.
• The enemy conducts defensive operations and continues to shell settlements and positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces units on the right bank of the Dnipro River; conducts aerial UAV reconnaissance, and partially regroups its forces. The counter- battery fight across the Dnipro River continues.
• There is information on the partial rotation of Russian units in the Kakhovka and Oleshky territorial communities. In particular, the arrival of servicemen of Asian appearance there is noted.
• In Nova Kakhovka, the creation of fortification defense structures was intensified along the Dnipro River coast and at the Kakhovka HPP’s approaches. Approaches are mined; car tires are brought along the approaches, and sea containers are buried in the ground.
• Railway freight trains arrive from Crimea to the territory of Kherson Oblast, unloading military equipment and ammunition at the “Kalanchak”, “Brylivka”, and “Novooleksiyivka” stations.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 06.04.23

Personnel – almost 176,630 people (+390);

Tanks – 3,631 (+3);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,013 (+8);

Artillery systems – 2,714 (+7)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 532 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 281 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,574 (+1); Aircraft – 306 (0);

Helicopters – 292 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,287 (+4); Intercepted cruise missiles – 911 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The World Bank forecasts that Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2023 will reach 0.5%, after a sharp drop to almost negative 30% in 2022, the year of the Russian full-scale invasion. This is stated in the conclusions of the economic review of the World Bank, published on April 6. Despite the vast economic losses that Ukraine suffered due to the invasion, the opening of Black Sea ports, the resumption of grain trade, and significant support from donors contribute to the support of economic activity this year. According to the latest World Bank estimates, the cost of

reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine has now risen to $411 billion, which is more than double the size of Ukraine’s pre-war economy in 2021.

International diplomatic aspect

While meeting Xi Jinping, Emmanuel Macron said that “he can count on Xi to reason with Russia and bring everyone back to negotiating table.” “In the face of Russia’s war against Ukraine, we want peace to be restored, and for this, we need Russia to end its invasion and withdraw its troops from Ukraine… the territorial integrity and sovereignty are fundamentals of the UN Charter that we both full support,” Ursula von der Leyen stated. However, Beijing’s “top priority” is to achieve a ceasefire, which means a new status quo in favor of Russia. “China urges all parties to remain calm and reason, and work together to create conditions for peace talks … We oppose attempts that would add fuel to the fire and complicate the situation,” the readout of the meeting reads. Calls for “calm and reason” looks a bit cynical, while the largest nuclear power is waging a genocidal war. On top of that, calls not to “add fuel to the fire,” which means the West should stop providing security assistance to Ukraine, would mean an ultimate victory of Russia. “We have decided since the beginning of the conflict to help the victim,” was Emmanuel Macron’s message. Xi expressed his support for Europe to “put forward ideas and proposals for a political solution to the Ukraine crisis based on its own fundamental and long-term interests, and promote the establishment of a balanced, effective and sustainable European security framework.” However, by “balanced, effective and sustainable European security framework” China sees Russian right for spheres of influence and veto power on a sovereign decision on foreign policy, particularly membership in NATO. Russia hasn’t been threatened or attacked either by NATO, Ukraine, or Georgia, but it was Russia that launched an unprovoked war of aggression and threatened the Free world. Therefore, the security concerns of other nations should be laid as the basis of a “balanced, effective and sustainable European security framework,” nor the revisionist power guilty of the crime of aggression and almost every other crime under international law. Xi Jinping told Emmanuel Macron that he is ready to call Volodymyr Zelensky at the right moment. It wouldn’t be a surprise if that moment “coincides” with the successes of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Russia’s Orthodox Church openly supports Russia’s aggressive war, and it is one of the main reasons Ukrainian society and state act against its branch in Ukraine. Russia’s Orthodox Church Patriarch has appointed Archpriest Dimitry Vasilenkov, cleric of the St. Petersburg diocese, to be the chief military priest of the clergy who will take care of the Russian invasion forces. The priest took part in the Russian war against Georgia in 2008 and fought in the Chechen war.

According to a Levada Centre poll, more than half of Russians have heard something about the ICC warrant on Vladimir Putin, accused of war crimes. More than a third (34%) are confused; another third are indifferent, while twenty-two percent are outraged. Only a tiny three percent are satisfied with the decision of the ICC.

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