CDS Daily brief (08.04.23) | CDS comments on key events
- Опубліковано: CDS
- Категорія: DailyBrief
Snapshot of the day:
- Russian forces attacked 8 Ukrainian Oblasts during the day yesterday, killing at least 5 civilians and injuring another 9;
- As of the morning of April 8, 2023, 467 Ukrainian children died, and more than 946 were injured due to Russian aggression;
- Ukraine returned 31 Ukrainian children, while at least 20,000 kids are still illegally kept by Russia;
- There is a critical shortage of medicines and doctors in the occupied Mariupol;
- People in the occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts are told that a forced evacuation to Crimea will start at the end of April.
- The Russian Air and Space Force has reduced the number of attacks in the immediate vicinity of the front line and is increasingly relying on air strikes from long distances (more than 50 km) using guided air bombs. The Ukrainian Air Defense Forces are not able to repel the Russian aircraft at such distances;
- Russian aviation is changing tactics to reduce the risk of further aviation losses and is trying to operate outside the zone of damage from the Ukrainian air defense systems;
- Russian troops intensified shelling along the contact line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast;
- Possible operation situation developments: We should expect an increase in Russian activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast aimed at improving its tactical position in anticipation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
- Gabriel Clark, a British teenager, raised over £250,000 for Ukrainian refugee children;
- Despite last year’s outrage, the Vatican put a Ukrainian and Russian boy together at the Stations of the Cross ceremony in the Roman Colosseum. A Ukrainian boy escaped Mariupol, while a Russian boy told the story of his relatives killed in the war;
- The Ukrainian branch of the Moscow Orthodox Church denies its chief priest and others have Russian citizenship, which the journalist’s investigation has revealed;
- Russian military academies plan to hold early graduation to replenish the command staff losses. The schedule will not change for cadets of strategic missile forces, aerospace forces and naval forces.
As of the morning of April 8, 2023, according to the official information of juvenile prosecutors, 467 Ukrainian children died, and more than 946 sustained injuries of various degrees of severity due to the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation.
31 Ukrainian children abducted by Russia from the occupied territories came back to Ukraine today as a part of the fifth rescue mission, Director of Save Ukraine, Presidential Commissioner
for Children’s Rights (2014-2021) Mykola Kuleba said. He stressed that with each mission, the number of hours spent at FSB interrogations and other ordeals the families have to go through to reunite increases.
A group of 13 mothers traveled to the illegally occupied Crimean Peninsula via Poland, Belarus, and Russia, where they were reunited with their children. “According to official data alone, at least 20,000 children have been forcibly removed by the Russian military from the temporarily occupied territories (of Ukraine), separated from their parents, and forcibly transferred to Russian families. Their own parents have no idea where their children are or what happened to them,” Ukraine’s head of the Office of the President said in a Telegram post.
The Russian army shelled eight Oblasts of Ukraine during the day, killing and wounding civilians.
- In Chernihiv Oblast, the Russian forces shelled the Novgorod-Siversky district twice with mortars during the day. At night, they probably dropped a bomb from an aircraft near the village of Ivanput of the Semeniv community. According to preliminary data, three residential buildings were damaged, and there is no gas, water and electricity supply in the village.
- In Sumy Oblast, Russian forces shelled 3 border communities from the territory of Russia. Another 5 border communities were shelled 12 times during the day. Russian troops dealt airstrikes on the outskirts of Seredyna-Buda. One household was damaged.
- The Russian army carried out 76 shellings of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, 16 villages on the demarcation line in the Polohy and Vasylivka area were hit. 23 reports of destruction were filed.
- At least 18 towns and villages in the Slobozhansk and Kupyansk directions were shelled in Kharkiv Oblast. A residential building and farm buildings were damaged due to shelling in Dvorichna. A 39-year-old man died as a result of the shelling of Borysivka village. In Kucherivka, Kupyansk district, the buildings of an agricultural enterprise were damaged by shelling, and a fire broke out. A 40-year-old man, a 50-year-old woman and a 55-year- old employee of the State Emergency Service were hospitalized in the Mykolaivka village of Chuhuyiv district when an unknown explosive device blew up in a field.
- In Luhansk Oblast, Novoselivske, Makiivka, Nevske, Kuzmine, Dibrova, and Bilohorivka came under Russian artillery fire.
- In Donetsk Oblast, the Russian military shelled populated areas with rockets, fired mortars, Grad MRLS, and carried out an airstrike. 14 towns and villages were under fire. At night, the enemy shelled Kostyantynivka. According to operational information, four strikes from the S-300 air defense system were recorded in the industrial zone. Four civilians were killed, and one person was injured during the day.
- In Mykolaiv Oblast yesterday, the enemy shelled the waterfront of the Ochakiv community with artillery.
- In Kherson Oblast, there were 71 instances of shelling during the day, and 397 shells from heavy artillery, drones and aviation were fired. Eight people were injured. An ambulance crew came under fire in Beryslav. Two paramedics were injured. The Russians shelled Stanislav with artillery. The projectile hit a residential building, broke through the roof and detonated. A 30-year-old woman, a 10-year-old girl and a 3-year-old boy were injured.
According to [the legally elected Ukrainian] Mariupol Municipal Council, there is a critical shortage of medicines and doctors in the occupied city. People with diabetes have almost no way to get insulin; there is no modern medical equipment in the city as most of it was either destroyed or stolen by the Russians, and it’s hard to get a doctor’s appointment.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the Russian occupiers intensified preparations to evacuate the local population from the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts to the temporarily occupied Autonomous Republic of Crimea. In Melitopol and Skadovsk, the occupiers organized a survey regarding possible evacuation. In the survey, people are asked about their Russian passport, residence permit and level of education. Buses with those wishing to evacuate already periodically leave the occupied territories. At the same time, the invaders spread information that the forced evacuation of civilians would begin at the end of April.
According to Luhansk Oblast Military Administration, men in the occupied Novopskov are sent for a medical examination required for military service. Another wave of mobilization is underway in the Starobilsk district, where men are being handed summonses to the local draft offices on the city streets. Only 10% of the pre-war population remains in the occupied Sieverodonetsk, Oleksandr Stryuk, head of the Sieverodonetsk City Military Administration, said.
Operational situation General conclusion:
- The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions;
- The 150th motorized rifle division of the 8th Army of the Southern Military District concentrates its efforts on capturing Maryinka; the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 29 Russian attacks out of 60 attacks recorded in the theater of operations on April 7;
- The Russian Air and Space Force has reduced the number of attacks in the immediate vicinity of the front line and is increasingly relying on air strikes from long distances (more than 50 km) using guided air bombs. The Ukrainian Air Defense Forces are not able to repel the Russian aircraft from the borders of Ukraine and the combat line at such distances;
- Russian aviation is changing tactics to reduce the risk of further aviation losses and is trying to operate outside the zone of damage from Ukrainian air defense systems.
- Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled over 60 Russian attacks in different directions;
- The Russian forces attacked unsuccessfully in the areas of Kreminna, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne and Serebryansk forestry of Luhansk Oblast; Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Novokalynove, Severne, Pervomaiske, Maryinka and Pobyeda of Donetsk Oblast. They tried to take full control of the city of Bakhmut, fierce fighting continued;
- The Russian units tried to advance in the Bakhmut city center; they advanced approximately 3 km south of the T0504 Kostyantynivka – Chasiv Yar – Bakhmut route.
- The Russian forces carried out a number of unsuccessful attacks in the Avdiivka, Novokalynove and Severne, Pervomaiske and near Maryinka and Pobieda areas; unsuccessfully attacked Keramik.
- The Russian military is trying to improve its tactical position to the south of Kamianske; it has carried out local attacks to the south of Zaporizhzhia.
Change in enemy disposition:
- Currently, the “Wagner” PMC detachments form the core of the enemy grouping in the Siversk area.
- The Russian forces used TOS-1A in the Kreminna area on April 6;
- Increased efficiency of the Russian artillery use in Bakhmut;
- Improved level of cooperation between the airborne units of the Russian Armed Forces and the “Wagner” PMC in recent days in Bakhmut;
- Russian troops intensified shelling along the contact line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Possible operation situation developments:
- During the week, the Russian military will continue to try to meet its tactical objectives in the areas of Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, and Maryinka;
- We should expect an increase in Russian activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast aimed at improving its tactical position in anticipation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
- The Russian fleet keeps a group of 7 vessels in the sea. They are located in their patrolling areas near the coast of Crimea. Among them is one project 636.3 submarine, a Kalibr missile carrier, located in the area of the firing position southeast of Sevastopol. It may carry up to 4 Kalibr missiles.
- Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske. To control the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea water area, 24 aircraft sorties were carried out (Su-27/30 aircraft from the Belbek airfield, Su-30 SM, Su-24M and MiG-29K aircraft from the Saki airfield). Control of the air situation and operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U and Il-22 AEW&C aircraft.
- At 10:59, two explosions were recorded in the city of Feodosia (Crimea). According to reports from the occupation authorities, an air defense missile allegedly shot down a Ukrainian cruise missile aimed at the port of Feodosia.
- Today at 1:00 p.m., the Air Defense Forces of Ukraine shot down a Russian Supercam reconnaissance drone in the sky over Mykolaiv Oblast. This drone is produced by the Russian company “Unmanned Systems”. Supercam drones are designed for cartographic aerial photography, but the one shot down near Mykolaiv was clearly conducting reconnaissance of the coastal area.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 08.04.23
Personnel – almost 177,680 people (+570);
Tanks 3,636 (+3);
Armored combat vehicles – 7,020 (+4);
Artillery systems – 2,727 (+5)
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 533 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 282 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,599 (+12); Aircraft – 307 (+1);
Helicopters – 292 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 2,298 (+7); Intercepted cruise missiles – 911 (0);
Boats/ships – 18 (0).
Ukraine, general news
According to Ukrenergo, no European energy system has experienced such a large-scale destruction attempt: more than 1,200 missiles and drones were launched by the Russian forces at critical energy facilities. Unfortunately, more than 250 of them hit the target – 43% of the trunk networks were damaged. All thermal and hydroelectric power plants were shelled and suffered varying degrees of damage, Ukrenergo said.
International diplomatic aspect
Gabriel Clark, a 13-year-old British boy from Cumbria County in Northwest England, raised over £250,000 for Ukrainian refugee children in Poland. A self-taught “woodworking whizz” held a raffle to win one of his carved wooden bowls.
The Stations of the Cross organizers in the Roman Colosseum, an annual Good Friday Vatican event, put a Ukrainian and a Russian boy together. A Ukrainian boy told the story of his escape from Mariupol under the Russian shelling and bombing, while a Russian boy told the story of his elder brother and grandfather who had been killed at war. The “Russian boy will be speaking about his killed brother and dad, and grandfather, that have disappeared in the war. But he just will forget to mention that his relatives came to Ukraine to kill not just the father of the Ukrainian boy but all the family… and not the other way around,” the Ukrainian Ambassador to the Holy See reacted. Last year, the Vatican abandoned the idea of getting a Ukrainian and Russian woman to participate in the same ceremony after public outrage and protests.
The Ukrainian branch of the Moscow Orthodox Church denies its chief priest and others have Russian citizenship, which the Ukrainska Pravda journalist investigation has revealed. According to an extract from the Rospassport system, the Russian government’s database, Metropolitan Onufriy [of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchy], was issued a Russian passport in Moscow on March 20, 2002. Within a year, on June 23, 2003, he also received a Russian passport for traveling abroad. The database says that another Russian passport for traveling abroad was issued in 1998, which means Russian citizenship, at least from that year. Ukraine didn’t recognize dual citizenship and had not practiced stripping the Ukrainian citizenship before the all-out invasion. But now, such citizenship of the elected and appointed officials and clergy is perceived as a threat to national security. The Ukrainian branch of the Moscow Orthodox Church has been systematically supporting the Kremlin policies.
Russia, relevant news
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, to replenish heavy losses, the leadership of the Russian armed forces decided to hold early graduations from higher military educational institutions in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kostroma, Penza, Omsk, Tyumen, Kazan, Novosibirsk, Volsk, and Blagoveshchensk on April 29 of this year. At the same time, graduations from the educational institutions training specialists for the military units of the Russian strategic missile forces, aerospace forces and naval forces will be held under the previously planned schedules.
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