CDS Daily brief (09.04.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• The Russian army shelled eight Oblasts of Ukraine during the day, killing at least five and wounding at least eight civilians,
• The Russian invaders are carrying out forced passportization in the temporarily occupied Kherson Oblast.

Military:

• The pace of Russian operations on the Avdiyivka-Donetsk frontier has noticeably decreased.
• The enemy’s newly formed “volunteer” artillery division of the 2nd Army Corps was spotted in the Kreminna-Bilohorivka area.
• Possible operation situation developments: During the week, the enemy will continue to try to fulfill its tactical tasks in the Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, and Maryinka areas.

International:

• German pacifists believe assistance for Ukraine is an “obstacle” to peace.
• The last living Nuremberg prosecutor of Nazis has died at the age of 103. Ben Ferencz was sure that Putin was a war criminal. He was unhappy that Nuremberg hadn’t prevented the Nazi-like evil from reemerging.
• Senior Advisor to George W. Bush argued that helping Ukraine means “putting America’s interests first,” and abandoning Ukraine would be a “strategic, economic, and moral catastrophe that would reduce our influence around the world and damage our economy.”

Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of April 9, the Russian Federation military killed 468 children in Ukraine, another 947 children were injured, according to the official information of juvenile prosecutors,

Russian attacks

The Russian forces shelled eight Oblasts of Ukraine during the day, killing and wounding civilians, according to the consolidated information of the regional military administrations as of 9:00 a.m. on Sunday, April 9.

• In Chernihiv Oblast, the enemy launched three mortar attacks in the Novgorod-Siversky district. Preliminary, Russians also launched a missile from the aircraft. No victims or destructions were reported.
• In Sumy Oblast, the enemy hit the Seredyno-Buda community thrice with artillery from the Russian territory. On April 8, the Russians shelled the border communities of Bilopillia, Khotyn, Velyka Pysarivka and Myropillia seven times.
• In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, three people were killed and 5 more were injured due to enemy attacks. Russian troops attacked Zaporizhzhia, Orihiv, Hulyaipole and 15 other towns and villages. One missile attack, four air attacks, five UAV attacks and 46 artillery attacks were recorded. Several dozen objects were destroyed and damaged: apartments, houses, and farm buildings. At night, the enemy attacked Zaporizhzhia, targeting a private home. The father and his child died, and the mother was rescued from the rubble.

• In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the Russians shelled the Nikopol district, firing heavy artillery and UAVs.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, the enemy attacked at least 17 towns and villages. Yesterday morning, the enemy launched a rocket attack (preliminary, with Kh-59) on the territory near the reservoir in the Kharkiv district, buildings were damaged in Mala Danylivka village. The Russians launched a rocket attack (preliminary with the S-300 missiles) on Velykyi Burluk village. Two men died as a result of the Dvorichna village shelling. A private household was damaged during the shelling of the Podoly village; a woman was injured. In Izyum central cemetery, a 53-year-old woman stepped on a “Petal” anti-personnel mine and was hospitalized.
• In Donetsk Oblast, two people were injured during the day due to Russian attacks. The Russian military carried out an airstrike and fired artillery and mortars. Bakhmut, Kostyantynivka, Kurakhove, Toretsk, Velyka Novosilka, Ocheretyne, Vremivka, Druzhba were under fire. Residential sectors were destroyed in all settlements.
• The Russian invaders carried out 71 shellings of Kherson Oblast on April 8, firing 495 shells from various types of weapons and aviation. The enemy shelled Kherson six times, firing 23 shells. Russian aggressors are strengthening the counter-intelligence and police regime in Kherson Oblast [occupied areas]. In particular, in the Gornostaivsky district, raids are underway to check the residents’ phones for photo and video materials and “forbidden” content. Russian invaders record the personal data of local residents and selectively search homes.

Occupied territories

The Russian invaders are carrying out forced passporting in the temporarily captured territory in the Tavria direction (Kherson Oblast) and are threatening to take away school-age children from their parents if they refuse to take Russian passports, said the spokesman of the Ukrainian Defense Forces of the Tavria Region, Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, on the air of the national telethon.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions;
• The pace of Russian operations on the Avdiyivka-Donetsk frontier has noticeably decreased.

Battleline:

• Units of the Defense Forces repelled more than 50 enemy attacks in various directions.
• The enemy conducted unsuccessful offensives in the areas south of Kuzmyne and Verkhnyokamianske of Luhansk Oblast; Bohdanivka, Novokalynove, Severne, Pervomaiske and Maryinka of Donetsk Oblast. They are trying to take full control of the city of Bakhmut; fierce fighting continues. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 attacks near Bohdanivka and 15 near Maryinka.

• Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensives near Kreminna and the Serebryansk Forest and attacked near Terny and Nevske.
• After firing from the TOS-1A, the enemy units of the 98th airborne division managed to break through the Ukrainian defenses in the southwestern part of Bakhmut; the endpoint of the logistics route along the T0506 highway was cut off, but the Defense Forces retained the possibility of supplies along the T0504 route. The Defense Forces are actively defending their positions in Bakhmut; the pace of advancement of the Wagner PMC and the Russian Airborne Forces units has slowed down.
• The units of the Defense Forces defending Klishchiivka not only held their positions but also destroyed the enemy’s battery of self-propelled 2c9 mortars. Mercenary detachments of the “Wagner” PMC led an assault near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, and Bila Hora; enemy units tried to develop an offensive west of Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka; fighting continues in the Ivanove area and on separate sections of the T0504 highway southwest of Bakhmut. Unpaved routes significantly complicate Ukrainian forces’ logistics.
• The enemy conducted unsuccessful offensives in the areas of Novokalynove, Severne, Pervomaiske, Maryinka and Pobyeda. The Russian offensive on Avdiivka was practically stopped, but the 150th motorized rifle division of the 8th Army tried to maintain its pace near Maryinka, and part of its forces tried to advance through the forests to the north and south of Maryinka.

Change in enemy disposition:

• The newly formed “volunteer” artillery division of the 2nd Army Corps was spotted in the Kreminna-Bilohorivka area.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy used TOS-1A in the area of Bakhmut.

Possible operation situation developments:

• During the week, the enemy will continue to try to fulfill its tactical tasks in the Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, and Maryinka areas.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The enemy has a group of ships at sea consisting of 9 units. They are in patrolling areas near the coast of Crimea. Among them, two submarines of project 636.3, carriers of Kalibr missiles, are in the area of the firing position southeast of Sevastopol. They might carry up to 8 Kalibr missiles.
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske. To control the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, 18 sorties were carried out. Control of the air situation and operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U and Il-22 AEW&C aircraft.

• An American reconnaissance drone RQ-4B Global Hawk with the call sign FORTE12 was spotted in the sky over Romania near the Black Sea coast. The drone took off from the Sigonella airbase, located near the Italian city of Catania in Sicily, and circled for several hours near the border of Romania and Moldova.
• The installation of the second section of the railway branch of the Crimean Bridge, which was damaged on October 8, 2022, has been completed. Work has begun on the installation of technical systems. The final repair is planned to be completed by July 1.
• Three “Buyan-M” type corvettes (carriers of “Kalibr” missiles) were moved to the Novorossiysk base, possibly due to the air strike on the city of Feodosia on April 8, 2023. According to one version, the Russian S-300 air defense system was damaged due to the strike.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 09.04.23

Personnel – almost 178,150 people (+470);

Tanks – 3,636 (0);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,024 (+4);

Artillery systems – 2,740 (+13)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 533 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 282 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,602 (+3); Aircraft – 307 (0);

Helicopters – 292 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,312 (+14); Intercepted cruise missiles – 911 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

International diplomatic aspect

Up to 2,000 people marched the streets in Berlin, blaming the government for the “escalation” of the Russian war against Ukraine by providing weapons and “constant rhetoric of war and inciting images of [Russia as] the enemy.” The protesters bore banners with slogans like “Peace, warmth, bread instead of weapons, war and death” and “NATO – the aggressor, peace with Russia.” They believe that the support of Ukraine is the main obstacle to peace. At a rally in Hanover, Margot Käßmann, the former chairwoman of the council of the Evangelical Church in Germany, called for an end to Western arms deliveries to Ukraine – “We don’t want the escalation to continue and more weapons to be delivered to the war zone. Because with these arms deliveries, we are jointly responsible for all the dead.” While pacifists were calling to throw Ukraine under the bus, there was a less crowded march under the motto “Stand With Ukraine.” The leftists on the continent and beyond are consistent in their ignorance of the consequences of stopping arms supplies to Ukraine, which is defending itself from the genocidal war of Russia, and futile efforts to settle the difference with Russia, which sees Ukraine subjugated at any cost. Stephen King nailed it – “Keep Ukraine in your hearts and thoughts. Don’t support appeasers who would leave them behind.”

Ben Ferencz, the last living Nuremberg prosecutor of Nazis, has died at the age of 103. “Certainly, he’s [Vladimir Putin] a war criminal. You don’t have to think too much about that,” Ferencz told CBS News. “As we talk, people are being shot and killed who had nothing to do with the war [in Ukraine]. So, evils that I sought — Nuremberg sought — to correct are still with us today, and we have begun to build a foundation that is more humane and rational, but we have a lot more to go,” the former prosecutor said.

“If the U.S. abandons Ukraine after all its courage and sacrifice, it would be a strategic, economic, and moral catastrophe that would reduce our influence around the world and damage our economy. Aiding Ukraine is putting America’s interests first,” Karl Rove, Senior Advisor to George W. Bush, wrote for the WSJ. “Ukraine’s heroic resistance to Russia, a power hostile to the U.S., has dramatically improved America’s strategic position worldwide. The Kremlin has become far weaker, while NATO, which includes many of our most trusted allies, has become far stronger and more united than it has been since the Cold War. But if Russia prevails in the war, that progress would be reversed,” the political strategist argued. “Neo-isolationists worry about what weapons and aid to Ukraine are costing America, but pulling our support risks American lives down the road. There’s more than our strategic interests at stake. A Europe threatened by an aggressive, resurgent and hostile Russia isn’t in our economic interests, either.”

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