CDS Daily brief (10.04.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Over the past day, the Russian forces shelled several dozen towns and villages in 8 regions. 4 people in Donetsk Oblast and one in Kharkiv Oblast were injured; one person was blown up by a Russian mine;
• Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, 2,015 Ukrainians have been freed from Russian captivity;
• The bridge connecting Kyiv and the Oblast center of Chernihiv in the north of Ukraine has been restored;
• About five thousand Ukrainian and specialists from other countries are needed to demine Ukrainian territories. If Ukraine’s demining effort moves at the speed of Croatia, it will take 30 years.
• Ukraine has returned twenty-four more Kherson Oblast children from Russian captivity. As a result of a POWs swap, Ukraine returned a hundred of its servicemen and servicewomen.

Military:

• The Russian troops concentrated 113 BTGs in the Zaporizhzhia direction and 205 BTGs in the Donetsk direction.
• The Avdiivka direction will not gain priority until the end of hostilities in the Bakhmut area.
• Possible operation situation developments: During the week, the Russian military will continue to try to meet its tactical objectives in the areas of Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, and Maryinka.

International:

• The Ukrainian Parliament called on NATO member states and their parliaments to pursue the “open doors” policy and support Ukraine’s accession to the Alliance by launching a negotiation process.
• Elon Musk shows moral relativism and the inability for judgement by refusing to block Dmitriy Medvedev’s twits with clear genocidal language.
• In Russia, in 2022, there were 77 attempts to set fire to military commissariats.
• Russian parallel imports exceeded 20 billion USD and increased demand for warehouse space in the transit CIS countries, including Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan;

Humanitarian aspect:

As reported earlier, twenty-four more children from the Kherson region have been returned to Ukraine after being illegally deported and kept in Russia. “This was one of the most difficult rescue missions. The Russians interrogated the children for 13 hours and later forced them to participate in a propaganda report,” a Ukrainian official said. Meanwhile, Ukraine and Russia swapped POWs. As a result, a hundred Ukrainian soldiers have been returned, including defenders of Mariupol, Azovstal, and Hostomel airbase. There are eighty male and twenty female defenders; nine of them are officers, and the rest are privates and sergeants.

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, 2,015 Ukrainians have been freed from Russian captivity, the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets said.

The Ministry of Infrastructure announced the opening of traffic on the bridge over the Desna River in Chernihiv Oblast, restoring the direct connection between Chernihiv and Kyiv. It’s now going to take two hours to travel between the two cities. The bridge was ruined at the outset of the Russian invasion, and the detour forced people to spend twice as much time on the road.

About five thousand Ukrainian specialists and operators from other countries are needed to demine Ukrainian territories, said the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksiy Reznikov. He added that demining will take Ukraine about 30 years if the government moves at the pace of Croatia, where mines are still found.

Russian attacks

Over the past day, the Russian forces shelled several dozen towns and villages in 8 regions of Ukraine. 4 people in Donetsk Oblast and one in Kharkiv Oblast were injured, one person was blown up by a Russian mine.

• There were two attacks in Chernihiv Oblast. In the afternoon, a Russian rocket hit the bridge over the Sudist River (near the village of Gremyach, Novgorod-Siversk community), the bridge was partially destroyed. The Russians also shelled the territory of the Semenivka community with mortars. No victims.
• Sumy Oblast: at night, the occupiers fired mortars on the Seredyno-Buda territorial community. 20 hits were recorded. On April 9, during the day, the Russians shelled 2 border communities: Novoslobidska and Bilopolska. In both cases, there are no consequences.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: there were three Russian air attacks, one using UAVs and 58 artillery shells. Thirty-one new destructions were recorded in the Vasylivka and Polohy districts.
• Kharkiv Oblast: at least 13 towns in villages in two directions came under Russian fire. The Russian forces fired mortars at the village of Karaichne in the Chuhuyiv district. A 36- year-old civilian was injured and hospitalized in serious condition. A 38-year-old civilian man stepped on an anti-personnel mine “Pelyustka” in his own garden in the Izyum district and was hospitalized with shrapnel wounds.
• Luhansk Oblast: On April 9, the Russian occupiers shelled Novoselivka, Makiivka, Nevske, and Bilohorivka with artillery.
• Donetsk Oblast: 4 civilians were injured in the Oblast. Russian attacks targeted residential areas of at least 8 towns.
• Mykolaiv Oblast: in the afternoon of April 9, the Russian forces attacked the settlement of the Kutsurub community with anti-aircraft missiles. There were no injuries or damage.
• Over the past day, the Russian forces fired 78 rounds, firing 360 shells in Kherson Oblast. 17 of these shells hit the city of Kherson. The Russians targeted the region’s populated areas; the territory and buildings of the garage cooperative of the Korabel district of the city.

Occupied territories

Violent abductions of the civilian population by the Russian occupying forces do not stop. In particular, in Starobilsk, Luhansk Oblast, they searched the residences of citizens suspected of supporting Ukrainian armed forces and took people away in an unknown direction – without return, Luhansk Oblast Military Administration reported.

According to the order issued by the head of the Crimean occupation administration Serhiy Aksyonov, the development of cooperation between military commissariats and schools “for the purpose of military and patriotic education of children” should be strengthened in the occupied Crimea. Military-patriotic events involving the “Youth Army” are to be organized by the schools. Starting September 2023, the basic military training for children will become mandatory in the school curriculum.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions;
• The Avdiivka direction will not gain priority until the end of hostilities in the Bakhmut area.

Battleline:

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled over 58 Russian attacks in different directions;
• The Russian forces attacked unsuccessfully in the areas of Dibrova, Luhansk Oblast, east of Bohdanivka, near Khromove, in the areas of Novokalynove, Berdychi, Avdiivka, Severne, Vodyane, and Maryinka of Donetsk Oblast; they try to take full control of the city of Bakhmut;
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces recaptured schools #7 and #40 and the post office in southern Bakhmut; they are pushing units of the enemy’s 98th airborne division from Tchaikovsky Street to their starting positions on Korsunsky Street.

Change in enemy disposition: not identified.

Escalation indicators:

• The Russian troops concentrated the 113s BTG in the Zaporizhzhia direction and the 205s BTG in the Donetsk direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• During the week, the Russian military will continue to try to meet its tactical objectives in the areas of Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, and Maryinka;

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The Russian fleet has returned most of its grouping of ships to their bases in Crimea. There are 4 ships left at sea. They are located in their patrolling areas near the coast of Crimea.

Among them is one project 636.3 submarine, a Kalibr missile carrier, located in the area of the firing position southeast of Sevastopol. It may carry up to 4 Kalibr missiles.

• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske. To control the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea water area, 23 aircraft sorties were carried out. Control of the air situation and operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A- 50U and Il-22 AEW&C aircraft.
• In the Kherson direction, the Russian military operates with the forces of the “Dnepr” grouping, which includes units of the 49th Army, the 22nd Army Corps, and the 7th Airborne Assault Division. According to some estimates, the total number of personnel of the Russian occupation forces in this direction is 34 thousand servicemen. The enemy uses 155 tanks, 190 aircraft and 30 helicopters as part of the grouping. Currently, the Russian military continues to build up fortifications; the personnel of the Russian units is rotated as planned.
• In the Kherson direction, the Russian military continues shelling Ukrainian positions and towns and villages along the right bank of the Dnipro River with mortars, rocket and barrel artillery, tanks and UAVs. Over the past day, Kherson, Beryslav, Dudchany, Kachkarivka, Mykolaivka, Ivanivka, Mykilske, Dniprovske, Bilozerka and Komyshany were under Russian fire.
• Ukrainian missile and artillery units are engaged in counter-battery fighting, destruction of ammunition dumps and Russian occupation forces personnel. Ukrainian Defense Forces are trying to push the Russian occupiers at least 20 km away from the Dnipro bank, which should significantly reduce the intensity of Russian shelling from the Left Bank.
• According to the available data, in the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson oblast, the Russian troops are stationed in the premises and the adjacent territories of agricultural enterprises, forestry, educational, medical and recreational institutions, and religious communities. There are cases when residents of private households and apartment buildings are resettled by the occupiers’’ force.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.04.23

Personnel – almost 178,820 people (+670);

Tanks 3,637 (+1);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,028 (+4);

Artillery systems – 2,750 (+10)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 534 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 282 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,607 (+5); Aircraft – 307 (0);

Helicopters – 292 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,323 (+11); Intercepted cruise missiles – 911 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Since the beginning of the current marketing year (July 2022), Ukraine has exported 38.8 million tons of cereals and legumes, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy data. In particular, from July to April 10, 22.85 million tons of corn, 13.3 million tons of wheat, 2.3 million tons of barley, and 17.7 thousand tons of rye were exported. For comparison, from July 2021 to April 15, 2022,

45.2 million tons of cereals and legumes were exported abroad. Of them, 20.6 million tons of corn, 18.45 million tons of wheat, 5.6 million tons of barley, and 161.9 thousand tons of rye.

International diplomatic aspect

On the eve of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Vilnius, the Ukrainian Parliament called on member states and their parliaments to pursue the “open doors” policy and support Ukraine’s accession to the Alliance by launching a negotiation process. Recently, the Western media reported that the U.S., France, and Germany are against a Membership Action Plan being granted to Ukraine. Such a position damages the credibility of the Alliance that, on the one hand, reiterates openness for new members and accepts Finland and, shortly, Sweden. But, on the other hand, it shows that the Kremlin still has a say with regard to Ukraine.

Elon Musk sees no problem with Dmitriy Medvedev’s genocidal twits. Calling Ukraine not a “valid country” and “a country 404,” that the “nouveau-Ukrainian blood-sucking parasites on the decrepit EU’s arthritis-crippled neck,” the former Russian President insisted that “Ukraine will disappear because nobody needs it.” Medvedev keeps repeating bizarre vision of history and political developments in Ukraine that he called the “new Malorossiya of 1991,” which his ill imagination draws to consist of the “artificially cut territories, many of which are indigenously Russian, separated by accident in the 20th century.” Though Putin’s “seat holder” called the Ukrainian government a Nazi one, Medvedev himself went full Nazi by saying, “We don’t need unterukraine [Untermensch or ‘subhuman’ is a Nazi term for non-Aryan people who must be either turned to slaves or exterminated]. We need Big Great Russia.”

“All news is to some degree propaganda. Let people decide for themselves,” was Elon Musk’s reply. It highlights his moral relativism and the inability for judgement, ignoring a clear genocidal language.

Russia, relevant news

On April 11, the Russian State Duma will consider amendments to the law regarding electronic subpoenas to the military registration and enlistment office. The amendments also include a proposition to ban draft dodgers from leaving the country, driving vehicles, concluding real estate transactions, registering individual entrepreneurs, taking loans, etc, a Duma member and a retired military officer Andrey Kartapolov said.

The new history textbook for high school students will “reveal all the reasons for the beginning of the special military operation,” Russian Minister of Education Sergei Kravtsov said in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta. The textbooks will also be used in the occupied Ukrainian territories.

German Interior Minister Nancy Feser, who oversees sports in the country, threatened to deny visas to Russian athletes if the International Olympic Committee allowed them to compete in the Olympics.

In Russia, in 2022, there were 77 attempts to set fire to military commissariats – Euro-Asian News agency reported with reference to Artem Makarov, a Central District Military Court Judge.

The volume of parallel imports to Russia exceeded 20 billion dollars and strained the situation with warehouses in transit countries, including Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, Russian publication “Kommersant” writes. The publication notes that the number of requests from Russian companies for warehouse space in post-Soviet countries increased by 40-50% at the beginning of spring, to almost 400,000 square meters. Analysts explain that interest in the CIS markets began to grow sharply last year, when it was necessary to establish logistics chains for parallel imports to Russia.

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