CDS Daily brief (12.04.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Russia has illegally deported 19,384 children from Ukraine.
• The Russian army attacked nine regions of Ukraine on April 11 using aircraft, drones, artillery, MLRS, and mortars.

Military:

• Mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC form the basis of the Russian forces to capture the center of Bakhmut, while the regular units of the Russian Airborne Forces support their actions on the flanks to the north and south of Bakhmut. Russian Airborne Forces units only hold the flanks and do not attempt to advance in any direction. The Russian command intends to use the Wagner PMC to capture Bakhmut, minimizing losses among regular Russian forces;
• The enemy controls 76.5% of Bakhmut;
• Russian troops hold positions northeast of Kupyansk and have improved their tactical position in the forests south of Kreminna.

Possible operation situation developments:

• During the week, the enemy will continue to try to fulfill its tactical tasks in Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, and Maryinka areas;
• Combat activity will continue in the forests near Kreminna.

International:

• Ukraine has launched investigations into a video with a Ukrainian POW beheaded by, allegedly, a Wagner PMC mercenary. The owner of the mercenary company Prigozhin denied the involvement, while the Kremlin’s mouthpiece believes it “may be a reason to check whether this is true or not, whether this took place and, if so, where and from which side.”
• While in the U.S., the Ukrainian PM made a case for fighter jets and long-range fires.
• The U.K. and U.S. introduced a new package of sanctions targeting Roman Abramovich and Alisher Usmanov, two of the wealthiest Russians close to Vladimir Putin, and several entities, including Rosatom.
• Belarusian Foreign Minister was received in Hungary and was talking about “peace,” while the day before, the Hungarian Foreign Minister in Moscow was talking about “peace” and signing a contract for additional natural gas supply.

Humanitarian aspect:

According to the Ukrainian children’s search portal Children of War data, as of April 12, 2023, 405 children are considered missing in Ukraine, 19,384 children were deported, 11,243 children were found, and 361 children were returned, reported the Ombudsman’s Office.

Russian attacks

According to the consolidated information of the Oblast Military Administrations, the Russian army attacked nine regions of Ukraine on April 11 using aircraft, drones, artillery, MLRS, and mortars.

Some consequences of enemy shelling:

• On April 11, 1 civilian died in Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast. In addition, 8 people in the region were injured.
• The Russian occupiers shelled Kherson Oblast 35 times. In Kherson, a church, power lines, and the territory of the port were damaged.
• The enemy continue to shell peaceful towns and villages on the demarcation line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 17 settlements came under attack. No victims were reported. On April 12, The Russian army struck Orikhove and Hulyaipole; the enterprise and the private residential quarter were affected.
• On the morning of April 12, the Russians shelled the Bilopilsk community of Sumy Oblast with mortars. 30 hits were recorded. On April 11, the Russians attacked the border communities. 91 hits from mortars, artillery, and dropping explosive devices from UAVs were recorded. A private non-residential building was damaged due to mortar shelling in the Bilopolska community, and two private houses were damaged in the Novoslobidska community. In the Khotyn community, the Russians dropped one mine and damaged the warehouse of an agricultural company.
• At least 4 residential buildings were damaged in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast. A Russian UAV fell in the Izyum district, causing a fire on 10 hectares in a field. In Kindrashivka village, 1 wounded civilian was reported. While performing fieldwork, a 32-year-old tractor driver was blown up by an unknown explosive device near Spodobivka village. In Rubizhne, a man stepped on a mine in his own yard. He was hospitalized.
• At night, the Russians shelled Ochakiv in Mykolayiv Oblast with artillery. Residential buildings, cars, gas and electricity supply systems were damaged. There are no casualties.
• In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the enemy shelled the Marhanets community twice with artillery on April 11. A private house was damaged. On April 12, the Russian occupiers shelled Nikopol, 4 people were injured. 13 private homes were damaged.

Occupied territories

Russian security forces detained the so-called head of the Kakhovka administration in the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast, reported the Center for Journalistic Investigations. According to CJI, the invaders suspect Filipchuk of writing out bonuses in the amount of 1 million rubles and fraud with Russian money intended for the payment of pensions and social assistance, as well as fraud with the supply of vegetables at speculative prices.

The Russian invaders have been carrying out covert mobilization in the temporarily occupied Melitopol since last December. They announced the creation of another “volunteer battalion, the [legally-elected Ukrainian] mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, said this on the air of the national telethon.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, and Maryinka areas;
• Mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC form the basis of the Russian forces to capture the center of Bakhmut, while the regular units of the 98th airborne division and 76th Air assault division support their actions on the flanks to the north and south of Bakhmut near Zaliznyanske, Sacco and Vanzetti, and Mykolaivka. Russian Airborne Forces units only hold the flanks and do not attempt to advance in any direction. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation intends to use the Wagner PMC to capture Bakhmut, minimizing losses among regular Russian forces;
• The enemy controls 76.5% of Bakhmut;
• Russian troops hold positions northeast of Kupyansk and have improved their tactical position in the forests south of Kreminna.

Battleline:

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled more than 72 enemy attacks in various directions.
• The enemy conducted unsuccessful offensives in the areas of Bilohorivka and Spirne in Luhansk Oblast; Bohdanivka, Avdiyivka, Pervomaiske, Nevelske and Maryinka in Donetsk Oblast; and tried to take full control of the city of Bakhmut. The fiercest battles continue for Maryinka.
• The enemy captured the Lyman Pershyi and occupied the settlement; units of the 76th Air assault division, reinforced by TOS-1A, achieved success by capturing Ukrainian positions in the forest about 5 km south of Kreminna, captured a number of strongholds near Makiyivka and in the area of the Zhuravka creek. The enemy’s attack was unsuccessful in the areas of Makiyivka, Chervonopopivka, Bilohorivka, and Spirne.
• The enemy made unsuccessful attacks on Bakhmut, near Khromove, Bohdanivka, and Hryhorivka; they are gradually advancing in the area of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, near the railway station in the center of Bakhmut. Battles continued near the Bakhmut – Kostyantynivka road, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Kurdyumivka, but the enemy did not succeed. The enemy advanced insignificantly to the northwest of Ozeryanivka.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks near Avdiyivka, Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevske, and Maryinka. The Russian occupiers attacked in the vicinity of Keramik, Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, and Vodyane and advanced near the agricultural complex in the southwest of Maryinka.

Change in enemy disposition:

• Chechen unit “Akhmat” and the 14th BARS battalion operate in the Kreminna area, and the 16th BARS detachment operates near Spirne.
• Units of the 22nd separate SOF brigade of the Russian Armed Forces and the “Storm- Ossetia” formation operate in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus created a collection point for national resources to ensure combat work and maintenance of logistics trucks for long-distance cargo freights, which allows the Russian Armed Forces to rely on the administrative potential of the Belarusian military.

Escalation indicators: Not identified.

Possible operation situation developments:

• During the week, the enemy will continue to try to fulfill its tactical tasks in Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, and Maryinka areas;
• Combat activity will continue in the forests near Kreminna.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• The number of enemy ships at sea is unchanged. There are 4 ships at sea, patrolling the areas near the coast of Crimea. Among them, one “Buyan-M” corvette and one project 636.3 submarine, carriers of “Kalibr” missiles, are in the area of the firing position southeast of Sevastopol. They can carry up to 12 Kalibr missiles.

• The grouping of surface forces of the Russian Federation in the Mediterranean Sea has been increased due to the deployment of the project 22350 frigate “Admiral Gorshkov”. Thus, there are currently eight Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea, four of which are Kalibr carriers, the total salvo of which is up to 36 missiles. This group is based in the port of Tartus (Syria).
• Enemy aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske. To control the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, 20 sorties were carried out. Control of the air situation and operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U and Il-22 AEW&C aircraft.
• In the Kherson direction, the enemy continues shelling Ukrainian positions and populated areas along the right bank of the Dnipro River with mortars, rocket and barrel artillery, tanks and UAVs. According to the report of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kherson, Beryslav, Bilozerka, Veletenske, Zolota Balka, Kachkarivka, Kozatske, Burgunka, Ivanivka, Mykilske and Dniprovske were under the fire of the [Russian]occupiers.
• “Grain initiative”. The “grain corridor” work and regular inspections of vessels will resume on April 12. “After intensive discussions within the framework of the Joint Coordination Center with the support of the UN and Turkey, it is planned to resume regular inspections on Wednesday, April 12. We call on all participants to fulfill their obligations to ensure the smooth and safe movement of vessels for the benefit of global food security,” the UN Secretary General’s representative said in a statement. He added that the UN team is working closely with all parties on their concerns. At the same time, the UN confirmed that the JCC did not conduct vessel inspections at all on April 11, as the parties needed more time “to reach an agreement on operational priorities.” As a result, the queue to enter Ukrainian ports increased to 50 vessels. The UN emphasized the great importance of the “grain initiative”, reminding that within its framework the delivery of 27.5 million metric tons of food was ensured, contributing to the reduction of prices on the world market. In addition, the “grain initiative” is an important supply source for the World Food Program. Since August, more than 0.5 million tons of wheat have been delivered to support ongoing humanitarian operations in Afghanistan, Africa and Yemen.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.04.23

Personnel – almost 180,050 people (+730);

Tanks – 3,646 (+2);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,043 (+5);

Artillery systems – 2,770 (+5)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 535 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 282 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,630 (+10); Aircraft – 307 (0);

Helicopters – 293 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,334 (+2); Intercepted cruise missiles – 911 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

President Volodymyr Zelensky met with the bipartisan delegation of the US Senate, consisting of Joseph Manchin, Lisa Murkowski and Mark Kelly. After meeting with President Zelensky’s team, the bipartisan delegation was satisfied with the level of accountability and transparency of the use of American aid, as they stated during a briefing in Kyiv.

International diplomatic aspect

“We are not going to forget anything and forgive the murderers; legal responsibility will be for everything,” the Ukrainian President reacted on a video of the beheading of a Ukrainian POW by, allegedly, a Wagner mercenary. Last night, the Russian media released a video showing the execution of a Ukrainian soldier. Men in military uniforms with white ribbons, which Russians usually use for identification, cut off a man’s head on camera. They show a bulletproof vest with Ukrainian insignia. The Security Service of Ukraine launched a pre-trial investigation into this war crime. “We will find these Inhumans. If necessary, we will get them wherever they are: from under the ground or from the other side. But they will definitely be punished for their actions,” the Security Service stated. Ukraine’s Military Intelligence launched its own investigation. The Ombudsman of Ukraine, Dmytro Lubinets, appealed to the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross. He demands that these cases be considered at the site of the UN Human Rights Committee, as well as recorded in the reports of international organizations. The OHCHR stated that the apparent executions are “not an isolated incident.” “Of course, these are terrible shots. Then it may be a reason to check whether this is true or not, whether this took place and, if so, where and from which side,” was the response of the Kremlin’s mouthpiece. Even the owner of the Wagner PMC rejects responsibility. “I have watched this video. It’s bad when people’s heads are cut off, but I haven’t found anything to support that this is happening near Bakhmut and that Wagner fighters are participating in the execution,” Yevgeny Prigozhin said. However, earlier, he cheered the brutal execution of one of his mercenaries with a sledgehammer that became a symbol of the Wagner PMC.

“We will win this war, but to achieve it faster and with fewer casualties, Ukraine still needs intensive military support,” Ukraine’s PM told the U.S. Secretary of Defence while visiting Washington D.C. Denys Shmyhal made a case for fighter jets and the long-range fires. “In modern warfare, air superiority is crucial. That is why Ukraine is initiating the building of a new so-called fighter jet coalition, and we are inviting the United States to become its most important participant. America can, once again, demonstrate its leadership by providing Ukraine with F-15 or F-16 aircraft,” Ukraine’s PM said.

The U.K. has imposed sanctions on a network of companies and individuals with financial links to Roman Abramovich and Alisher Usmanov, one of the wealthiest Russians close to Vladimir Putin. The U.S. has imposed new sanctions against 25 individuals and 29 entities with touchpoints in 20 jurisdictions, including several entities operating in the defense sector and entities associated with Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corporation (Rosatom). Alisher Usmanov, one of Russia’s wealthiest billionaires, is on the blacklist. The International Investment Bank, a Russia-controlled financial institution in Hungary, was also sanctioned.

Meanwhile, the Belarusian Foreign Minister was received in Hungary and was talking about the necessity of an immediate ceasefire and negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Just a day before, Peter Szijjarto, the Hungarian Foreign Minister and another “peacemaker,” visited Moscow and signed an agreement for an additional supply of Russian natural gas beyond the amounts agreed to in a long-term contract amended last year.

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