CDS Daily brief (14.04.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• 8 Oblasts came under Russian fire on April 13; two dead and 8 wounded civilians were reported in Oblasts;
• On Apri 14, a late afternoon missile attack on the residential area of Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast, killed at least 8 civilians, including a 2-year-old child, and wounded at least 21;
• Bodies of another 82 fallen servicemen were returned to Ukraine;

Military:

• The Russian troops previously deployed in the Avdiivka direction were reinforced by military units of the 58th army, which was deployed in the Melitopol and Berdiansk directions. This indicates the exhaustion of the combat potential of the 8th army troops and the lack of combat-ready operational reserves;
• The Russian forces operating in the Avdiivka – Maryinka area have a very powerful artillery group;
• The Russian Air and Space Force remains capable of establishing at least temporary superiority in the air at certain areas of the front;
• The air defense of the Ukrainian Defense Forces is under significant pressure from the enemy and is gradually losing its combat potential.
• The enemy is trying not to use its regular forces, waiting for the end of the battles for Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

Possible operation situation developments:

• In the Bakhmut area, we should expect the advance of airborne units of the Russian Armed Forces, supported by TOS-1A strikes.
• The main directions of the enemy’s attacks in the Avdiivka area are likely to be Krasnohorivka – Stepove – Semenivka and Orlyivka – Lastochkine – Severne – Tonenke;
• In case the enemy succeeds near Avdiyivka, Toretsk may become the likely direction of further actions of the Russian grouping. If Bakhmut is captured, the enemy’s command will face a choice between an attack on Toretsk and Siversk;
• The Grain Initiative: The Russian MFA put forward conditions for extending the Black Sea Grain Initiative beyond May 18, 2023.

International:

• Beijing insists on not supplying weapons and dual-use goods to Moscow, contrary to facts and the U.S. intelligence community assessments in the leaked documents.
• China and Brazil are on the same page on viewing the roots of the Ukraine-Russia war and ways to stop it.
• Medvedev routinely threatened Poland.
• Belarusian Minister of Defense threatens the West with nuclear weapons he doesn’t have.

Humanitarian aspect:

Ukraine returned the bodies of another 82 fallen servicemen, the Ministry for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories said.

Russian attacks

Over the past day, mortar and artillery shelling was recorded in Chernihiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk and Kherson Oblasts. Civilian casualties were recorded in Kherson Oblast, 4 civilians were injured in Kharkiv Oblast.

• In Kherson Oblast, 68 instances of shelling were recorded during the day; 280 shells were fired from heavy artillery, UAVs and aviation. 2 civilians died, and 4 were injured in the Oblast. Enemy aircraft struck the village of Zmiivka, Beryslav district. The Russians targeted the building of a local school with guided aerial bombs. A 62-year-old farmer, who was in the building, died on the spot. Another man, a 55-year-old school guard, was wounded.
• The Russian forces shelled the border and front-line villages of the Kharkiv, Chuhuyiv and Kupyansk districts of Kharkiv Oblast. As a result of shelling from the “Grad” MRLS, an enterprise was damaged in Kucherivka, causing a fire. 3 men were injured. A 47-year-old volunteer, who was helping to evacuate local residents, was wounded in Dvorichna village. He was hospitalized in serious condition.

At around 4:00 p.m. on April 14, the Russian forces launched a rocket attack on Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast, firing at least seven S-300 missiles. As of 21:00, 8 people were reported killed and 21 injured, the head of Donetsk Oblast Military Administration Pavlo Kyrylenko said. Among the dead is a two-year-old child. Another 5 people are probably under the rubble of the destroyed building. The impact damaged 5 high-rise buildings, 5 private houses, a school, a recreation center, an administrative building, a shop, an economic center, and 12 cars.

Occupied territories

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, in the Kakhovka district of Kherson Oblast, the Russian occupiers force people to re-register their vehicles according to Russian regulations. To do this, the owners need to have Russian passports. In addition, the General Staff reports that the enemy’s efforts to speed up the issuance of Russian passports in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk Oblast have been significantly intensified. The departments of the migration service of the Russian Federation work without days off. Priority is given to civil servants and servicemen of the First Army Corps.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions;
• In the Avdiivka direction, the Russian military deployed and brought into operation the main forces of the 8th and 58th Army and the 1st Army Corps; in the Lyman area – only the 2nd Army Corps;
• The Russian troops previously deployed in the Avdiivka direction were reinforced by military units of the 58th army, which was deployed in the Melitopol and Berdiansk directions. This indicates the exhaustion of the combat potential of the 8th army troops and the lack of combat-ready operational reserves;

• The Russian forces operating in the Avdiivka – Maryinka area have a very powerful artillery group;
• The Russian Air and Space Force remains capable of establishing at least temporary superiority in the air at certain areas of the front;
• The military air defense of the Ukrainian Defense Forces is under significant pressure from the enemy and is gradually losing its combat potential;
• The enemy is trying not to use its regular forces, waiting for the end of the battles for Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

Battleline:

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled over 49 Russian attacks in different directions. The fiercest battles continue for Bakhmut and Maryinka;
• The Russian forces attacked unsuccessfully in the areas of Dibrova and Bilohorivka of Luhansk Oblast, Bohdanivka, Predtechyne, Severne, and Maryinka of Donetsk Oblast;
• Russian troops advanced to the south of Bilohorivka, tried to push back the Ukrainian Defense Forces to positions on the west bank of the Zherebets River near Torske and Makiivka, and continued offensive actions near Yampolivka and Nevske.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted a successful counterattack near Kryvoshiivka and took control of a section of the H26 highway.
• Enemy units advanced further west into the center of Bakhmut and made small progress in the southern and southwestern quarters of the city.
• Ukrainian Defense forces repelled enemy attacks in the area of Khromove, Bohdanivka, and Predtechyne.
• The aggressor did not succeed in Severne, Maryinka, Pobyeda and Novomykhailivka districts. Russian troops attacked the western, southern, and eastern approaches to Avdiyivka and advanced in the area of Krasnohorivka, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske. Heavy fighting continues in Maryinka.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces continued reconnaissance operations in the area of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Change in enemy disposition:

• In the area of Avdiivka, the Russian command deployed a grouping consisting of the 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments, 68th and 163rd tank regiments of the 150th motorized rifle division; 33rd and 255th motorized rifle regiments of the 20th motorized rifle division; 57th motorized rifle regiment of the 3rd army corps; 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of 58th Army; 1st, 5th, 9th, 100th, 114th and 132nd separate motorized rifle brigades, 60th separate motorized rifle battalion, 10th separate tank battalion of 1st army corps.
• The grouping is supported by the 291st artillery brigade of the 58th combined arms army, the 381st self-propelled artillery regiment of the 150th motorized rifle division, the 944th self-propelled artillery regiment of the 20th motorized rifle division of the 8th Army, the 50th self-propelled artillery regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th Army, 1/439 1st MLRS brigade (“Tornado-S” MLRS) of the Southern Military District. The grouping is also supported by eight regiments and fifteen battalions of the mobilization reserve, and seven regiments of territorial troops. The manning of these formations ranges from 30 to 60%.

• The Russian Air and Space Force has changed the tactics of its asset usage. It deploys its EW systems very close to the front line, which allows more powerful radiation to suppress the early warning and fire control radar of Ukrainian air defense systems. The detected air defense systems of the Ukrainian Defense Forces are attacked by “Lancet” attack UAVs in combination with attacks by anti-radar X-58 missiles from Su-30sm and Su-35. Su-34 bombers attack at high speeds in corridors created in this way from heights of about 12 km.
• Additional motorized rifle units, BARS detachments and reconnaissance equipment arrived in the Kreminna area to carry out personnel rotation.
• Near Vasyukivka (north of Bakhmut), units of the 98th airborne division were deployed.

Escalation indicators:

• Russian troops continue to mine the territory near the Zaporizhzhia NPP; one of the mines recently exploded near the control room of the plant’s fourth power unit.

Possible operation situation developments:

• In the area of Bakhmut, we should expect the advance of airborne units of the Russian Armed Forces, supported by TOS-1A strikes, which will destroy the city, ensuring the advance of assault groups;
• By creating a threat surrounding the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Avdiivka, the enemy will try to squeeze them out of the city. The main directions of the enemy’s attacks in the Avdiivka area are likely to be Krasnohorivka – Stepove – Semenivka and Orlyivka – Lastochkine – Severne – Tonenke;
• In case the enemy succeeds near Avdiyivka, Toretsk may become the likely direction of further actions of the Russian grouping. If Bakhmut is captured, the enemy’s command will face a choice between an attack on Toretsk and an attack on Siversk;
• After the end of the battles for Bakhmut and Avdiivka, the enemy will not be able to start the next stage of its offensive operation immediately and will need an operational pause.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• There are 9 Russian ships at sea. They are located in their patrolling areas near the coast of Crimea. Among them is one project 636.3 submarine, a Kalibr missile carrier, located in the area of the firing position southeast of Sevastopol. It may carry up to 4 Kalibr missiles.
• The enemy is strengthening the protection and defense of the Black Sea Fleet’s main bases: the Russian Navy’s command decided to increase the number of floating berths (up to 10 units) at the entrance to Sevastopol Bay. In addition, ships and boats of the 102nd anti-submarine saboteur detachment (up to two Grachenok-type submarines and a Raptor-type submarine) are daily involved in anti-sabotage defense tasks. As of April 10, the installation of five floating moorings at the entrance to Sevastopol Bay was noted.
• On April 14 in Novorossiysk, in the waters of the Tsemeska Bay, an exercise of anti- sabotage defense forces and means is planned to train to destroy unmanned surface vehicles. The 136th anti-submarine saboteur detachment of the Russian Federation and the ship-boat depot of the Russian Federation, which are on 24-hour duty, will be involved in the event.

• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske. Eight fighter aircraft were involved in monitoring the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea: one Su-30SM (BELBEK), five Su-24M and two MiG-29K (SAKY). Control of the air situation and operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U and Il-22 AEW&C aircraft.
• The military transport aviation performed two flights to transfer personnel and military cargo to Dzhankoy and Belbek airfields.

The “Grain Initiative”.

• On April 13, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs put forward the conditions for the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative after May 18, 2023, including:
  • unblocking of JSC “Rosselkhozbank” accounts (ensures international payments for agricultural products), as well as its connection to the SWIFT international payment system (disconnected since June 2022);
  • removal of sanctions from foreign assets and accounts of Russian companies related to the production and transportation of food and fertilizers;
  • restoration of the supply of agricultural machinery, spare parts for it, and its service in the Russian Federation;
  • cancellation of the ban on Russian ships entering foreign ports;
  • resumption of operation of the ammonia pipeline “Togliatti – Odesa” (throughput capacity – about 2.5 million tons per year) for the export of ammonia from Russia through the established “grain corridor”.
• By resorting to blackmailing the world community, the Russian Federation is counting on the relaxation of the imposed sanctions. If these requirements are met, Russia will continue to put forward additional conditions to ease international restrictions further.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 14.04.23

Personnel – almost 181,090 people (+500);

Tanks – 3,650 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,069 (+16);

Artillery systems – 2,784 (+7)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 535 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 283 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,640 (+3); Aircraft – 307 (0);

Helicopters – 293 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,339 (0); Intercepted cruise missiles – 911 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

In January-February 2023, the export of goods from Ukraine decreased by 42.8% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 6.45 billion dollars, according to the State Statistics Service.

International diplomatic aspect

“China will not provide weapons to relevant parties of the conflict and manage and control the exports of dual-use items in accordance with laws and regulations,” China’s Foreign Minister stated during the joint press conference with the German Foreign Minister. “We have not seen evidence that China has transferred weapons or provided lethal assistance to Russia,” a senior Biden Administration official said. However, the leaked Pentagon documents indicate that Beijing approved the “provision of lethal aid” to Moscow earlier this year and planned to deliver them as “civilian” items. PRC has delivered a thousand rifles, dual-use goods, and UAVs and sold twice more ($179 million) integrated circuits than last year directly and indirectly via Türkiye ($3.2 million). “In the weapons recovered from the battlefield, we continue to find different electronics. The trend is now that there are fewer Western-made components but more – not hard (to) guess which country–made components. Of course, China,” an adviser to Ukraine’s president’s chief of staff on sanctions policy said. Meanwhile, Reuters wrote that Quzhou Nova, a Chinese firm, bought at least 3,220 tons of copper alloy in ingots worth a total of $7.4 million from the Ukrainian Plant on the Russia-occupied territory of the Donetsk region.

The leaders of China and Brazil “agreed that dialogue and negotiation is the only feasible way for settling it [so-called Ukrainian crisis] and that all efforts that are conducive to its peaceful resolution should be encouraged and supported. They appealed to more countries to play a constructive role in a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.” Xi and Lula talked about the creation of a “new future for their relations in the new era, deliver greater benefits to the two peoples, and play an important and positive role for peace, stability, and prosperity in their regions and around the world.” Lula called China “an indispensable force in global politics… which plays a vital role in promoting world peace and development.” Xi and Lula are on the same page on viewing the roots of the war [the U.S. “provocations”] and ways to solve it [a “compromise” with Russia].

“I don’t know who wins or loses in such a war, but given Poland’s role as a NATO outpost in Europe, this country will surely disappear along with its stupid prime minister,” Dmitriy Medvedev posted another extravaganza twit.

“If necessary, we will also have strategic nuclear weapons. And we are already engaged in the preparation of our existing sites. And if the hostile rhetoric continues, that will be the next step. We will respond to force only with force. In a different way, in the West, they do not understand,” Belarussian Defense Minister joined a nuclear blackmail game though hasn’t received the means yet.

Russia, relevant news

The owner of Wagner PMC, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, issued a public statement urging the Russian government to stop the “special military operation”, declare that an interim victory has been achieved, dig in the occupied Ukrainian territories and prepare for a battle. He is opposed to any negotiations with Ukraine and wants the forces of Russia and Ukraine to meet in battle. He also said that Ukraine’s victory could trigger unpredictable processes inside Russia.

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