CDS Daily brief (23.04.23) | CDS comments on key events
- Опубліковано: CDS
- Категорія: DailyBrief
Snapshot of the day:
- Russian forces continue to attack civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. During the night, Russians attacked Kharkiv and Kharkiv Oblast with rockets. Russian aviation dropped five guided bombs on Kherson Oblast in the past 24 hours.
- In the temporarily occupied city of Sieverodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast, the Russians who claim to be there to restore the town are actually looting surviving apartments and facilities.
- The enemy continues focusing on offensives in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions.
- The enemy are taking measures to block the main communication lines and surround the Avdiivka defensive area of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, with the aim of forcing them to retreat in the western and northwestern directions.
- The most intense battles in the Avdiivka area are happening west and north of Krasnohorivka.
- The enemy attempts to break through on the Kurakhove direction to reach the operational space and advance rapidly to the west.
- The enemy command has reinforced the 150th Mechanized Rifle Division of the 8th Army in the area of Maryinka with unidentified units.
- The enemy continues to conduct aerial reconnaissance of operational areas, using Su- 24MR and Su-34 aircraft.
- The enemy has suffered significant losses in personnel and equipment during the winter offensive campaign, limiting their ability to conduct offensive operations on more than one front and react to possible counteroffensive operations by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
- The G7 agricultural ministers have called for the continuation, full implementation, and expansion of the agreement on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products via the Black Sea.
- Sergey Lavrov expressed his dissatisfaction with the U.S. decision not to issue visas for Russian propagandists willing to accompany him at U.N. Security Council events. It was previously reported that the U.S. might not issue a visa to Lavrov, making it impossible for one of Putin’s regime’s war enablers to visit New York and chair the main international body dedicated to preserving peace.
- Dmytro Kuleba reiterated the necessity of just and lasting peace, while Moscow does not show the “slightest readiness for peace.”
Consequences of enemy shelling on the morning of April 23:
- During the night, Kharkiv and Kharkiv Oblast were attacked by Russian rockets. One rocket hit the ground in Kharkiv, and another one, presumably, exploded in the air over a vegetable factory, damaging greenhouses and workshops. In Kotlyari, two private houses were destroyed, and 10 houses, one garage, and four cars were damaged.
- A 9-story building was destroyed in Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast. 1 person was injured in Ocheretyne. 20 private houses were damaged in Bakhmut and 15 in the Toretsk community. At night, the Russian military shelled Sloviansk, damaging several private houses. In total, 4 residents of Donetsk Oblast were injured during the day.
- Yesterday, the Russians shelled 18 villages and towns in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. In addition to the destruction of civilian objects, a 56-year-old man was injured in Stepnohirsk.
- The Russian occupiers attacked Kherson Oblast 54 times; 1 person was killed, and 2 were injured. Russian aviation dropped five guided bombs on Kherson Oblast in the past 24 hours, according to the operational command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces “South”. Four Su-35 aircraft dropped five 500-kilogram guided bombs. Residential buildings were damaged, but no one was injured. The “South” command also reported that Kherson Oblast was attacked by kamikaze drones “Lancet”.
- Yesterday, the Russian Occupiers attacked the water area of the Ochakiv community in Mykolaiv Oblast. There were no casualties or damage.
- Late in the evening, the enemy dropped an explosive shell on the Marhanets community (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) from a drone. No casualties were reported.
- Yesterday, the Russian occupiers fired from self-propelled artillery at the Semenivka community in Chernihiv Oblast.
- Novoslobidska and Estmanska communities in Sumy Oblast were under fire. In total, there were 19 explosions.
On April 23, the Russian military attacked Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with drones. Three people were injured, and one municipal building, two private houses, two garages, and one car were damaged, according to the mayor of Nikopol, Oleksandr Sayukh. Serhiy Lysak, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk regional military administration, reported that a 33-year-old man was wounded by shrapnel, and two others suffered blast injuries and concussions.
In the temporarily occupied city of Sieverodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast, the Russians who claim to be there to restore the city are actually looting surviving apartments and facilities, according to Oleksandr Stryuk, the head of the Sieverodonetsk City Military Administration. He reported on the national telethon that people are brought into the city under the guise of restoration, but instead, they are stealing property from surviving apartments and public buildings. Even schools are being stripped of appliances, including electric kettles. Stryuk also noted that there is a difficult situation with employment in the city, and the invaders use social benefits as a pretext to force people to obtain Russian passports. The city’s population has dwindled to approximately 10,000 people, with the rest being migrants, “so-called” builders, or disguised [Russian] military personnel. The number of children has not changed since the occupation; it is between 1,000 and a maximum of 1,500. The provision of medical services is inadequate, and mortality rates are rising. Electricity and water services are also partially functioning. Water in buildings mostly does not rise above the second floor and often disappears. A new landfill has emerged around the city’s perimeter.
Operational situation General conclusion:
- The enemy is concentrating their main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions.
- The enemy is taking measures to block the main communication lines and surround the Avdiivka defensive area of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in order to force them to retreat in the western and northwestern directions.
- The main battles in the Avdiivka area occur to the west and north of Krasnohorivka.
- The enemy is trying to break through in the Kurakhove direction and reach the operational space in order to advance to the west quickly.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
- Units of the Defense Forces repelled over 58 enemy attacks on various fronts.
- The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled attacks near Lyman Pershyi and Bilohorivka, counterattacked near Torske, Dibrova, and Chervonopopivka. Military units of the 98th separate airborne division of the Russian airborne troops advanced in the forest area near Kreminna. The enemy also attacked toward Terny and Nevske, near Kuzemivka, Siversk, Vasyukivka, Rozdolivka, Vesele, and Spirne.
- Fierce battles continue for the city of Bakhmut. The enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions near Hryhorivka, Khromove, Ivanivske, Bohdanivka, Paraskoviivka, Novokalynove, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, Vuhledar, and on the northwest of Vodyane. Russian forces advanced to the section of the T0506 highway northwest of Khromove. In the area east of Novokalynove, the enemy’s 132nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Army Corps attacked the positions of the Defense Forces, but the attack was repelled.
- Russian forces repelled attempts by the Ukrainian Defense Forces to regain lost positions west of Novobakhmutivka near the N20 highway between Donetsk and Kostiantynivka.
- The enemy continued systematic shelling to the west of Hulyaipole and Kherson Oblast. The enemy made slight progress to the south of Myrne.
- The Defense Forces conducted reconnaissance near Dorozhnyanka, took positions on the bank of the Dnipro River north of Oleshki, and advanced to the northern outskirts of this settlement on the E97 highway and to the west of Dacha. Russian forces do not control the islands on the Kinka and Chaika rivers near Antonivskyi Bridge.
Change in enemy disposition:
- The enemy command is taking measures to ensure control of the airspace over the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, for which they are deploying five Su-27/30 fighter jets from the 27th mixed aviation division of the 4th Air Force and Air Defense Army (Belbek), three Su- 30SM fighter jets and two Su-24 bombers from the 43rd Naval Aviation Regiment of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy (Saki), and two MiG-29K fighter jets from the 100th separate naval assault aviation regiment of the 45th Air Force and Air Defense Army of the Northern Fleet of the Russian Navy (Saki).
- The stability of the operational and strategic management system in the theater of operations is provided by four Il-22 airborne early warning and control aircraft. Two Il- 22PP aircraft are carrying out (jamming) tasks in the airspace of Luhansk Oblast and over the Sea of Azov.
- The enemy command has reinforced the 150th mechanized rifle division of the 8th Army in the area of Maryinka with unidentified units.
- The enemy continues to actively conduct aerial reconnaissance of operational areas and directions, using six Su-24MR reconnaissance aircraft from the Shatalovo and Marinovka airfields, and two Su-34 aircraft with universal reconnaissance containers from the Lipetsk airfield, concentrating reconnaissance efforts in the northeastern part of Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblast and the south of Ukraine.
Possible operation situation developments:
- Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue to adhere to their strategy of inflicting maximum losses on the enemy in close combat on the main concentration directions in the short- term perspective;
- The enemy has suffered significant losses in personnel and equipment during the winter offensive campaign, which currently limits its ability to conduct offensive operations on more than one front and limits its ability to react to possible counteroffensive operations by the Ukrainian Defense Forces;
- A temporary ceasefire in Ukraine and prolonged warfare will only benefit Russia, allowing it to restore its forces and reduce Western support for Ukraine.
Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
- There are 7 enemy ships in the sea patrolling areas near the coasts of Novorossiysk and Crimea. Among them, two Project 636.3 submarines are carriers of “Kalibr” missiles in the firing position area near Novorossiysk. They can carry up to 8 “Kalibr” missiles combined.
- In the Sea of Azov, there is a patrol ship (near the Kerch Bridge) and two landing ships.
- The enemy aviation continues flights over the sea from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. Five fighter jets from the Saki and Belbek airfields were involved in controlling the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea waters. Control of the air situation and operational-tactical aviation over the Azov Sea was carried out by A-50U and Il-22 AWACS aircraft.
- Yesterday, on the evening of April 22, a missile frigate “Admiral Grigorovich” of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, three missile corvettes of the 20380 project, and a military tanker from the Baltic Fleet passed west through the Strait of Gibraltar. Most likely, they are heading for repairs at the Yantar shipyard in Kaliningrad, Russia. The Admiral Grigorovich frigate of the 1135.6 project has been stationed in the Mediterranean Sea since October 28, 2021, for about 1.5 years, while the corvettes have been there for less time – since October 2022.
- In the Mediterranean Sea remain the missile frigate “Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov” of project 22350 (Northern Fleet), the missile corvette “Orekhovo- Zuyevo” of project 21631 (the corvette has been in the Mediterranean Sea since 21.01.2022), the missile submarine of project 636.3 “Krasnodar”, the minesweeper of project 12700 “Vladimir Emelyanov”, the military tanker “Kama” (arrived on 11.04.2023 together with the missile frigate “Admiral Gorshkov”), and the anti-sabotage boat “Kadet”. This is significantly less than at the beginning of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine (there were 13 combat ships and 5 auxiliary vessels, including 2 missile cruisers and 7 strike missile ships).
“The Grain initiative”.
- The G7 agricultural ministers have called for the continuation, full implementation, and expansion of the agreement on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products via the Black Sea, according to a joint communiqué released after a two-day meeting in Miyazaki, Japan. The ministers also condemned Russia’s attempts to use food as a means of destabilization and as an instrument of geopolitical coercion and reaffirmed their commitment to solidarity and support for those affected by such actions. Additionally, the G7 members expressed their readiness to support the restoration and reconstruction of Ukraine, including through the provision of expertise on landmine clearance and the reconstruction of agricultural infrastructure.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 23.04.23
Personnel – almost 186,420 people (+690);
Tanks – 3,675 (+3);
Armored combat vehicles – 7,131 (+1);
Artillery systems – 2,837 (+5)
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 539 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 289 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,730 (+12); Aircraft – 308 (0);
Helicopters – 294 (+1);
UAV operational and tactical level – 2,402 (+4); Intercepted cruise missiles – 911 (0);
Boats/ships – 18 (0).
Russia’s Foreign Minister expressed dissatisfaction with the U.S. decision not to issue visas for Russian propagandists who were planning to accompany Sergey Lavrov at the U.N. Security Council events: “We won’t forget, we will not forgive this”. It was reported previously that the U.S. might not issue a visa to Lavrov, thus making impossible a bizarre visit of one of the Putin regime’s war enablers to New York for chairing the main international body dedicated to preserving peace. According to a Levada Centre poll, two-thirds of Russians receive news from the T.V. channels, and half of Russians believe that those channels tell the truth. The most watched top three “journalists” are Vladimir Solovyov (17% of Russians watch him regularly), Olga Skabeyeva (11%), and Evgeniy Popov (4%). All three are the most toxic propagandists in Russia.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister stated that the rising voices for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia do not consider the fact that Moscow does not show the slightest readiness for peace. “There will be no real peace neither for Ukraine nor for the rest of the world if Russia does not bear full responsibility for all its crimes, including the crime of aggression against Ukraine and all subsequent war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide,” Dmytro Kuleba underlined. “The real peace is the restoration of internationally recognized borders of Ukraine. Real peace is a safe homeland for the Crimean Tatar people in Ukrainian Crimea. The real peace is ships with grain, not warships in the Black Sea. Real peace is a world united by the supremacy of international law. This is what we are fighting for – not only for victory in the war but also for real, long-lasting peace,” he explained. Earlier, the President of Brazil was talking about a “third way” of resolving the “conflict”; President of France hinted that he is working with Beijing to set up Ukraine – Russia negotiations; Foreign Minister of Italy share the idea of “peace” talks between the sides by the mediation of China.
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