CDS Daily brief (29.04.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• The Russian Federation army carried out attacks on seven regions of Ukraine in a day.
• In Uman the search and rescue operation has been completed after yesterday’s Russian attack on the multi-story residential building. 23 people died, including 6 children.
• In the temporarily occupied territories, the Russian forces are conducting mass medical examinations of children; reportedly, around 70% of children are declared sick and then offered “treatment” in Russia.

Military:

• The enemy is focusing its main efforts on launching offensives in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions.
• The Russian forces are increasing their efforts to block the T0504 highway between Kostiantynivka, Chasiv Yar, and Bakhmut.
• The use of TOC-1A systems in the area of Avdiivka and the western part of Donetsk Oblast is unlikely to provide a decisive advantage for the Russian forces on the battlefield.

International:

• Turkish President Erdogan spoke with United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine and the ongoing Black Sea Grain Initiative.
• Ukraine has sent a note of protest to Poland regarding the blocking of imports of agricultural products.

Humanitarian aspect:

Russian attacks

The Russian Federation army carried out attacks on seven regions of Ukraine in a day.

In Uman, Cherkasy region, the search and rescue operation has been completed following the Russian attack on a multi-story residential building. The attack resulted in the death of 23 people, with 22 being pulled from the rubble and one more person dying in the hospital. Among the victims were six children: three boys aged 1.5, 16, and 17 years old, and three girls aged 8, 11, and 14 years old. Nine people were injured, and two more women are considered missing.

Consequences of enemy shelling as of the morning of April 29th:

• During the night, the Russian forces heavily shelled villages along the Chernihiv Oblast border using aviation bombs, artillery, and missiles. As a result, there was 1 reported casualty, 4 people were injured, and 9 buildings were damaged in the Novhorod- Siverskyi district.
• In Malotaraniivka, Donetsk Oblast, a child suffered severe burns and another person was injured. Avdiivka was hit 15 times by shelling. In Toretsk, one person was killed and two were injured, while 16 buildings, three infrastructure objects, and two administrative buildings were damaged. Chasiv Yar was also targeted, resulting in two injuries, a damaged private house, and two enterprise buildings.

• In Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, a kindergarten was damaged by shelling, and in Nesterne, an agro enterprise’s premises and equipment were also damaged. In Kupyansk, a missile strike resulted in almost complete destruction of a private residence.
• The Russian forces carried out 33 attacks in Kherson Oblast, resulting in 1 civilian death and 6 injuries. The enemy deliberately targeted the hospital in Bilozerka.
• During the night, the Russians shelled the communities of Seredyno-Budy, Znob- Novgorodska, and Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast; 22 explosions were recorded.
• During the day, the Russian forces launched 56 attacks on 14 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulting in 22 reports of building and property damage, but no casualties.
• The night in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts passed without shellings.

Occupied territories

In the temporarily occupied territories, the Russian forces are conducting mass medical examinations of children, and it has been reported that around 70% of children are declared sick and then offered “treatment” in Russia. According to the head of the Luhansk Regional Military and Civil Administration, Artem Lysogor, this has been confirmed by the so-called”LPR/DPR” websites. Reportedly, the Russians have checked approximately 94,000 to 100,000 boys and girls, most of whom are students, for health problems. After the medical examinations, 70% of children received certificates stating that they have chronic illnesses and require treatment. The children are then offered the opportunity to go to “pioneer camps” in Russia for treatment. Lysogor noted that parents are often asked to accompany their children to Russia; otherwise, the children may not be returned.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The enemy is concentrating its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions;
• Russian forces are increasing their efforts to block the T0504 highway between Kostiantynivka, Chasiv Yar, and Bakhmut;
• The use of TOC-1A systems in the area of Avdiivka and the western part of Donetsk Oblast is unlikely to provide a significant tactical advantage for Russian forces.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled over 48 enemy attacks on various fronts.
• Heavy fighting for the city of Bakhmut continues. The enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive operations towards Bilohorivka, south of Dibrova, Bohdanivka, Chasiv Yar, and in the areas of Avdiivka, Severne, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka.
• The enemy advanced to an area about 10 km northwest of Kreminna, but their attacks near Torske and Terny were unsuccessful.
• The enemy units advanced to the Bakhmut Industrial College. Ukrainian Defense Forces are carrying out a controlled withdrawal from certain positions along the T0504 highway.

They repelled Russian attacks in the direction of Chasiv Yar, Bohdanivka, Orikhovo- Vasylivka, and Ivanivske and successfully counterattacked near Khromove and Bohdanivka. Wagner PMC units attacked Ukrainian positions in the north, south, and west of Bakhmut.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces have advanced to the southwest of Pavlivka, conducting a successful attack.

Change in enemy disposition: not detected.

Escalation indicators:

• Deployment of heavy flamethrower systems TOC-1A in the Avdiivka direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces, in the short term, will adhere to their chosen strategy of inflicting maximum losses on the enemy in close combat on the main thrust directions;
• The Kremlin is interested in prolonging the war, which will allow it to accumulate and deploy additional resources, including mobilizing and training additional personnel and creating a group of up to 815,000 soldiers; as the main goal of the war, the eradication of Ukrainian statehood, has not been achieved;

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• There are 15 enemy ships in the sea. They patrol areas near the coast of Novorossiysk and Crimea. Two surface ships (with up to 16 “Kalibr” missiles) are in the Black Sea waters. Five landing ships (LLSs “Caesar Kunikov”, “Korolev”, “Minsk”, “Olenegorsky Gorniak”, “Piotr Morgunov”) continue maneuvers near the coast of Krasnodar Krai – 20 km southwest of Anapa.
• There is a patrol ship near the Kerch Bridge in the Sea of Azov.
• The enemy’s aviation continues flights from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske over the sea. Five fighter aircraft from the airfields of Saki and Belbek were involved in monitoring the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Control of the air situation and operational-tactical aviation over the Azov Sea was carried out by the A-50U and Il-22 AWACS aircraft.
• On the Kherson direction, the enemy operates with the forces of the “DNEPR” grouping, which includes up to 34,000 servicemen, 155 tanks, 190 aircraft, and 30 helicopters. Currently, the enemy continues to arrange fortifications and rotation of the personnel on a regular basis. The enemy continues to shell Ukrainian positions and settlements along the right bank of the Dnipro River with mortars, UAVs, aircraft, tanks, missiles and small arms artillery. Over the past day, Kherson, Beryslav, and Odradokamianka were under enemy fire. Currently, the greatest threat to the positions of the Defense Forces and the de-occupied settlements is posed by aviation bombings by the Russian Aerospace Forces using KAB-500.
• Around 2 am on April 29, a massive fire broke out at a fuel depot belonging to the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the bay of Kozacha in Sevastopol, as a result of a drone attack. The fire covered an area of 1000 square meters, and it was eventually contained 10 hours after it started. Approximately 40,000 tons of fuel products belonging to the occupiers were destroyed. According to Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the fuel was intended for the needs of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The “Grain initiative”.

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke with United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine and the ongoing Black Sea Grain Initiative. During the conversation, Erdogan stressed the importance of continuing the initiative and expressed his willingness to participate in the interdepartmental delegation for the working group that would be established in case of an agreement on the ammonia pipeline.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.04.23

Personnel – almost 190,040 people (+580);

Tanks – 3,697 (+3);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,184 (+3);

Artillery systems – 2,908 (+3)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 543 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 294 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,836 (+17); Aircraft – 308 (0);

Helicopters – 294 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,471 (+4); Intercepted cruise missiles – 932 (+21);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID), through the World Bank, has allocated an additional $1.25 billion to Ukraine for the needs of healthcare, education, and emergency services, reported the US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, on Twitter.

International diplomatic aspect

Ukraine has sent a note of protest to Poland regarding the blocking of imports of agricultural products, according to spokesperson Oleh Nikolenko of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “Such restrictions, no matter what reasons they are based on, do not comply with the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU and the principles and norms of the EU Single Market,” he said.

According to Defence24, the United Kingdom wants to purchase long-range missiles and modern weapons for Ukraine within the framework of a special fund. It is expected that the priority will be the purchase of missiles with a range of up to 300 km.

Denmark allocates 1 billion euros for the recovery of Ukraine, said the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Denmark Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

As a result of diplomatic meetings in Odesa on April 28, two more countries have decided to support Ukraine’s accession to NATO. According to Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukrainian diplomats were able to change the minds of two previously restrained countries during a day of communication in Odesa in various formats. These countries now support the decision of the NATO summit in Vilnius, which is a step forward towards Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance. While this is not yet the consensus needed, Kuleba emphasized that “yesterday in Odesa we definitely increased the coalition of countries that will fight for the strongest possible decision on Ukraine’s NATO membership.”

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