CDS Daily brief (30.04.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• The Russian forces attacked 9 Oblasts of Ukraine over the past day. There are civilian victims and destruction;
• Ukraine needs 3.4 billion dollars to prepare for the next heating season;
• The fire at the Sevastopol oil depot caused intensified evacuation from the peninsula. Families of the [Russian] military personnel flee as well;
• Ukraine has signed three new agreements with the Turkish manufacturer of Bayktar strike UAVs.

Military:

• The Russian military focuses on offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions. Specifically, they focus on capturing the city of Bakhmut while continuing their attempts to surround Avdiivka and capture Maryinka.
• Sea: The Russian BSF ship group will be kept out of the range of strike capabilities of the forces of the Ukrainian Navy. There is an increased likelihood of missile and kamikaze drone attacks on Ukrainian Navy base points, ships, and boats in the next two to five days. The probability of a Russian operational landing on the Black Sea coast remains very low.

International:

• Angela Merkel defended her disastrous Russian energy overdependence policy and called for a possible negotiated solution to the Ukraine-Russia war.
• Vladimir Putin addressed his parliament and set the priorities: support of his war efforts, integration of the illegally annexed territories and parliamentary “diplomacy.”
• Russia issued a new history textbook, which justifies the war, claiming that “the Russian Federation is the current form of the state of our civilization.”
• According to a Levada Centre poll, there is high support for the war among Russians (84%).

Humanitarian aspect:

As of the morning of April 30, 2023, according to the official information of juvenile prosecutors, 477 Ukrainian children died, and more than 955 sustained injuries of various degrees of severity.

Ukrainians residing in the temporarily occupied territories should take a Russian passport in order to save their lives, or leave the territories by all possible means, Dmytro Lubinets, the Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner, said. He stressed that President Putin’s decree allowing the deportation of Ukrainian citizens from the occupied territories is most likely meant not so much to deport those who refuse to take Russian passports but to arrest them and keep them hostage.

According to the calculation made jointly with the Word Bank, Ukraine needs 3.4 billion dollars to prepare for the next heating season, particularly for purchasing necessary resources and the restoration of generation, Deputy Minister of Energy Farid Safarov said.

Russian attacks

The Russian Federation attacked nine regions of Ukraine during the past day, according to the consolidated information of the Oblast military administrations as of 9:00 a.m. on Sunday, April 30.

• In Chernihiv Oblast, Russian forces shelled the border communities 11 times during the day. Several villages near the border in the Novgorod-Siversky district were cut off due to a power line hit.
• In Sumy Oblast, the Russian military shelled border communities 26 times, resulting in 227 explosions. In the Seredyna-Buda community, an apartment building was damaged, while in the Druzhba community, a residential building was hit, and a fire broke out. Additionally, a bank branch was damaged, and the shelling affected the roof of a two- story, 12-apartment residential building.
• Russian forces have continued to shell towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with 69 strikes reported on 19 locations over the past day. There have been no reported casualties from these attacks.
• Russian artillery targeted Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at night, causing damage to seven private houses, farm buildings, a power line, a minibus, and a car. There were no casualties reported. The community of Chervonohryhorivka was also hit, but no casualties or damage were reported.
• This morning, the enemy shelled the center of Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast with artillery. A private house, garages, and four cars were damaged, and there were fires. Fortunately, there were no casualties reported. In addition, 16 towns and villages in two directions were hit by Russian fire. In Virnopillya, a 30-year-old man was injured by an unknown explosive device in his own yard.
• In Luhansk Oblast, the Russian military carried out 93 shellings throughout the day, firing a total of 433 shells at Ukrainian troop positions. The towns of Novoselivske, Nevske, and Bilohorivka were hit by artillery and mortar fire. The situation in the region continues to be difficult.
• In Donetsk Oblast, there were 21 shellings. Nine villages were targeted. 17 residential buildings were damaged, including one multi-apartment building, a boarding house building, six private cars, and two trailers.
• In Mykolayiv Oblast, the Russian forces made artillery strikes on the water area of the Ochakiv community. There are no casualties.
• In Kherson Oblast, the Russian army carried out 27 shellings during the day, firing 135 shells. The Russian military targeted 14 residential areas in the Oblast. As a result of the attacks, one person was killed and another was injured.

Occupied territories

After a fire broke out at an oil depot in Sevastopol, in the temporarily occupied Crimea, on April 29, families of military personnel intensified their evacuation from the peninsula, said the head of the United Coordination Press Center of the Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine Nataliya Gumenyuk. She said that a very high degree of anxiety is observed at the peninsula and people are leaving it via all possiblee routes.

According to the National Resistance Centre of the Ukrainian MOD, a humanitarian crisis is worsening in the temporarily occupied territories of Luhansk Oblast due to a shortage of medicines for the civilian population. Most regional hospitals have been converted into military hospitals, leaving the civilian population without access to medical services. Additionally, people are facing a lack of medicines as priority is given to treating the Russian occupation authorities.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions;
• Russian troops focus on capturing the city of Bakhmut but do not stop trying to surround Avdiivka and capture Maryinka.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled over 58 Russian attacks in different directions;
• The Russian military conducted unsuccessful attacks towards Bilohorivka to the south of Dibrova, as well as in the Terny and Nevske directions and in the Serebryansk forest area. The Ukrainian defense forces launched four HIMARS missiles at a facility located in Bryanka.
• The Russian military advanced in the southwestern and northwestern parts of Bakhmut, The Russian military advanced in the southwestern and northwestern parts of Bakhmut, capturing the Bakhmut Medical College in the center of the city and the Bakhmut Industrial College in its southern part. The Russian military attacked near the road through Khromove, near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, and Ivanivske but did not succeed.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces were unable to unblock the E40 highway towards Krasna Hora, but they maintained control over the main logistics routes to Bakhmut.
• The enemy launched unsuccessful attacks near Avdiivka, Pivnichne, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka. They also attacked near the H20 highway west of Novobakhmutivka and near Krasnohorivka and Vodyane but failed to make any progress.
• The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation stated that on April 28, a ship of the Black Sea Fleet of the Navy of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a missile attack on the command post of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Kherson direction (information is being verified).
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces launched an attack with HIMARS on the command post of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Army deployed in the area of Tavriya village, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (14 km northwest of Tokmak).
• Attack UAVs of the Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed 10 oil tanks with a total capacity of about 40,000 tons (fuel and lubricant stockpile of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Armed Forces) in Kozacha Bay in Sevastopol.

Change in enemy disposition:

• Units of the 1454th motorized rifle regiment of the 9th separate motorized rifle brigade and the 14th “Kalmius” artillery brigade of the 1st army corps of the 8th army are currently active in the vicinity of Avdiivka. Meanwhile, the “Cascade” detachment, affiliated with the so-called “People’s Militia of the DPR,” operates near Vuhledar.
• Units of the enemy’s troops increasingly refuse to engage in hostilities in the Maryinka direction due to significant losses in manpower, untimely supply of ammunition, lack of personal protective equipment and orders to conduct an assault without the support of heavy equipment and artillery.

Escalation indicators:

• Russian troops attack the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Hulyaipole with TOS-1A.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces, in the short term, will adhere to their chosen strategy of inflicting maximum losses on the enemy in close combat on the main thrust directions;

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• During the day, the situation was characterized by the following:
• The Russian BSF ship group will be kept out of the range of strike capabilities of the group of heterogeneous forces of the Ukrainian Navy. For this reason, control of the surface situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea will be carried out by 1-2 aircraft from the position of air duty in the areas west of Cape Tarkhankut (Crimea). The probability of an operational landing on the Black Sea coast will remain very low.
• The probability of missile and kamikaze drone attacks on the base points, ships, and boats of the grouping of heterogeneous forces of the Ukrainian Navy will significantly increase in the next two to five days. However, the probability of active Russian action in the Dnipro-Pivdenny Buh, Dnipro, or Pivdenny Buh estuaries is limited due to the fire control of the water area.
• As of April 30, seven enemy ships are at sea, patrolling the areas near the coast of Novorossiysk and Crimea. None of them are Kalibr missile carriers. The reconnaissance ship pr. 864 “Priazovye” is located 90 miles northwest of Zonguldak (Turkey).
• In the main bases, there are 59 ships in Sevastopol.
• The following ships are at the main bases: in Sevastopol – 59 ships and boats, in Novorossiysk – 24, in Feodosia – 7, in Kerch – 2.
• A patrol ship is located near the Kerch Bridge in the Sea of Azov.
• Russian aviation continues to fly from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy and Hvardiyske over the sea. 7 fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were involved in monitoring the surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Control of the air situation and management of operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov was carried out by the A-50U DRLV and Il-22.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.04.23

Personnel – almost 190,510 people (+470);

Tanks – 3,699 (+2);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,189 (+5);

Artillery systems – 2,914 (+6)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 544 (+1); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 295 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,842 (+6); Aircraft – 308 (0);

Helicopters – 294 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,475 (+4); Intercepted cruise missiles – 932 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Ukraine has signed three new agreements with the Turkish manufacturer of Baykar strike UAVs, the Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin said.

According to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, there has been a significant shift in attitudes towards Victory Day, May 9th. In 2010, it was considered one of the most important holidays by 58% of the population, second only to New Year, Christmas, and Easter. By 2021, its popularity had decreased by half, with only 30% considering it the most important holiday. As of 2023, only 13% of the population still supports this holiday. While it is still celebrated as one of the most important state holidays in Russia, its significance in Ukraine has diminished over the years.

International diplomatic aspect

German Chancellor Angela Merkel defended her policy of energy dependence on Russia and called for a possible negotiated solution to the Russian war on Ukraine. She believes it was right to try everything possible to avert the war though those efforts failed. Yet she doesn’t want to admit that her desire to create a common space from Lisbon to Vladivostok after Russia’s aggression against Georgia and greenlighting the Nord Stream II without any security assistance to Ukraine after the illegal annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s proxy war in Donbas were read by Russians as an invitation to push further.

Vladimir Putin addressed his rubberstamp parliament on the day of parliamentarianism. He called Russia a civilizational state, highlighting values such as serving the people and their Motherland, which determine the “strength and stability of state power.” This worldview considers the state, in whatever form it takes (empire, communist empire, or attempted neo- empire) and whoever runs it, to be an ultimate value.

Vladimir Putin set the priority for his government to support his war efforts and integrate the newly annexed Ukrainian territories. “These are our historical lands and native people for us. Many of you have been there. How do they differ from the other part and other parts of our people? In no way. This is part of our people. And we must do everything to defend and protect their unequivocal choice – to return to Russia,” he said.

Russian Ministry of Education presented a new history textbook for 11th graders, including a chapter on why Russia started the war in Ukraine. “Schoolchildren need to be explained why the “special operation” was inevitable – that is why a section on “special operation” will appear in the new history textbook,” the minister said. One of the officials said the textbook is based on the principle of historical sovereignty, objective historical knowledge, continuity and succession of history, the synchronicity of presentation, and respect for the past. “The Russian Federation is the current form of the state of our civilization”, the bureaucrat stated, echoing the trend of calling Russia a civilization-state. Russia is the successor of the Soviet Union in the same way as the USSR is the successor of the Russian Empire and, in turn, the Muscovite kingdom and Ancient Rus (Russians falsely claim that Kyivan Rus was the first “Russian” state).

The Levada Centre conducted a poll that showed a slight increase in the percentage of Russians supporting the war in Ukraine in April 2022 compared to the same period in 2021. The number of Russians who didn’t care about the war remained unchanged at 16%. The poll found that 75% of Russians support the war, an increase of one percent from the previous year, while 16% do not support it, a decrease of three percent from the prior year. Nearly one-fifth of Russians who support the war believe that their cause is just, and they are patriotic and support their country, army, and president. Sixteen percent support the war for Russia’s security, peace, and to prevent a war on Russian territory. Fourteen percent justify the war by claiming that they are fighting against Nazis. The same number of Russians believe the war protects Russians or compatriots in Donbas. Six percent believe that “if we started the war, we need to finish it.” Only five percent of Russians claim that the war’s aim is to push NATO further from the Russian borders, and four percent support the war to reconquer historical Russian lands.

Russia, relevant news

Colonel General Alexei Kuzmenkov has been appointed to the post of Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation for Logistics, the Russian Defense Ministry reports.

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