CDS Daily brief (06.05.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Russian army attacked nine regions of Ukraine within the past day, resulting in civilian casualties and injuries.
• Ukraine has secured the return of 45 Special Operations Detachment “Azov” warriors captured during the Mariupol battle last spring.

Military:

• The pace of enemy advancement in the Bakhmut area has significantly slowed down. The actions of the Wagner PMC, which is attempting to attack the Defense Forces, are notable in this context.
• The enemy’s attempts to bypass the Defense Forces in Avdiivka through Pervomaiske and Netaylove have been unsuccessful.
• There have been no observed rotations or replacements of enemy troops in the Bakhmut area. The enemy maintains a high intensity of artillery shelling in the selected areas of concentration of forces.
• The enemy is creating a supply strip along the Kakhovka reservoir, which is 20-40 km deep, displacing the local civilian population.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Defense Forces are gradually moving towards the destruction of the enemy’s rear facilities across the operational zone, preparing favorable conditions for the start of a counteroffensive;
• Russian forces have mostly halted their offensive operations on the entire theater of military operations, which likely indicates a transition to a defensive posture. Resource accumulation, primarily ammunition and fuel, is ongoing.

International:

• Bill Clinton revealed that he had known that Putin would invade Ukraine after talking to him in 2011.
• The DOJ is reportedly investigating the crypto giant Binance over possible violations of the Russian sanctions.
• Ukraine’s Security Service has indicted 170 Russian senators who supported the “accession” of the temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine to Russia.
• Zakhar Prilepin, the Russian propagandist with national Bolshevik (far-right) views, survived an assassination attempt. While Russian authorities blame Ukraine, the Russian “National Republican Army” and “Atesh,” a Ukrainian military partisan movement, competitively claimed responsibility.

Humanitarian aspect: Demining:

Six explosive specialists from the State Emergency Service (SES) were killed while demining in Kherson Oblast. They came under enemy fire. Two more, including a female paramedic, were injured. The equipment used during the demining process was also destroyed.

Russian Attacks:

Russian army carried out attacks on nine regions of Ukraine within a day, resulting in civilian casualties and injuries.

Consequences of enemy shelling on the morning of May 6th

• Overnight and in the morning, the Ukrainian air defense forces intercepted and shot down six enemy drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Debris from the downed “Shahed” drones fell in the Synelnyky district, causing damage to the windows of five private houses. The Marhanets community also came under fire, but no casualties were reported.
• Yesterday, Russian forces carried out missile strikes using Kh-22 missiles on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast. In Sloviansk, one person was injured, and a plant building was damaged. In Kramatorsk, the administrative building of NKMZ, a kindergarten, two sports facilities, and 22 apartment buildings were also damaged. Three people were killed in Avdiivka and two in Kostiantynivka; one person was injured in Kostiantynivka.
• During the past day, the Russians shelled 16 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast 104 times, resulting in 4 injuries. The enemy targeted residential buildings, administrative buildings, and utilities networks.
• The enemy continues to shell the border areas of Kharkiv Oblast. In the past day, the occupiers shelled Vovchansk twice with artillery and mortars, damaging 7 residential buildings.
• Yesterday, the Russians launched artillery strikes on the waters of the Ochakiv community in Mykolaiv Oblast. No casualties were reported.
• Over the last 24 hours, the Russian forces have fired over 70 times on Kherson Oblast, resulting in 2 injuries. The enemy targeted residential areas of populated areas in the oblast, as well as the territory of a plant in Kherson and a church building in the Beryslav district.
• Yesterday evening, the enemy launched an air strike on the village of Hlukhove in the Sumy Oblast, resulting in 5 injuries. 44 private homes and an educational institution were damaged.
• In Chernihiv Oblast, the enemy carried out seven attacks (launching missiles from drones, air bombings, and shelling with mortars) during the past day. The Russians targeted Novhorod-Siverskyi and Koryukivskyi districts, but there were no casualties or damage reported.

Occupied territories

The enemy has announced the forced evacuation of at least 15 towns and villages in the temporarily occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, reported the mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, on the air of national telethon. He said that white buses had been seen in these towns offering residents to leave. This is mandatory for children. The enemy is trying to take children from Vasylivka, Tokmak, Molochansk, and Enerhodar under the guise of taking them on vacation, claiming that it will only be for a few weeks until the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is over. “At the moment, the evacuated people are being taken to Berdiansk and Kyrylivka. They are being accommodated in places where there are many recreational bases and hotels. Yesterday, the owners of recreational bases in Kyrylivka were gathered in the Shevchenko Palace of Culture in Melitopol, and they were tasked with preparing to receive the evacuated residents. They were told that if anyone disagrees, their recreational base will be taken away, and everything will be organized by force,” explained Ivan Fedorov. He also mentioned that forced evacuation is happening in Melitopol, and the enemy is taking equipment from their occupation structures, such as the migration service and the police. Preliminary information indicates that the invaders plan to temporarily relocate about 70,000 residents from 18 settlements along the front line.

In Starobilsk of Luhansk Oblast, which is currently under temporary occupation, individuals without Russian Federation passports are being forcefully evicted from their homes, according to a statement by the Luhansk Regional Military Administration on Facebook. The occupiers come to the dwellings no more than twice, and on the third visit, people and their belongings are forcibly thrown out onto the street. Even the presence of children in the premises does not deter the occupiers. After the eviction, these citizens end up in filtration camps, and their housing is given to Russian military personnel for settlement. Additionally, residents of temporarily occupied Lysychansk who agreed to work for the Russians now complain about the lack of payment for their work. Municipal workers and teachers are among those who applied, and the occupation authorities have promised to pay them their first salary in June 2023.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The enemy is concentrating its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the direction of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Mariupol.
• The pace of the enemy’s advance in the Bakhmut area has significantly slowed down, and the actions of the Wagner PMC, which is attempting to attack the Defense Forces, stand out from the context.
• The enemy’s attempts to bypass the Defense Forces in Avdiivka through Pervomaiske and Netaylove were unsuccessful.
• No rotation or replacement of enemy troops has been observed in the Bakhmut area.
• The enemy maintains a high intensity of artillery shelling in the chosen directions of concentration of forces.
• The enemy is creating a supply strip 20-40 km deep along the Kakhovka reservoir, displacing the civilian population.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• Units of the Defense Forces repelled more than 50 enemy attacks on various fronts.
• The enemy unsuccessfully attacked in the directions of Bilohorivka, Spirne, Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, and New York; launched offensives in the area of Avdiivka, but did not succeed. Battles continue in the area of Kreminna forest. Enemy units engaged in positional battles near Makiyivka and the Zhuravka ravine.

• The counterattack of the Defense Forces in the area of the Western Filtration Plant in Bilohorivka allowed for improving the tactical situation, and about 100 enemy servicemen were taken prisoner.
• Russian troops advanced in the northwest of Bakhmut towards Khromove; attacked Ukrainian positions east of Novomarkove, west of Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka. They also unsuccessfully attacked near Avdiivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces launched a counterattack near Bohdanivka, Markove, Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, and New York and are holding at least one ground supply line to their garrison in Bakhmut. Ukrainian units of the 24th separate motorized brigade and the 3rd separate assault brigade broke through the enemy’s attempt to cut off the T0506 highway. Units of the 3rd separate assault brigade and the 77th separate airborne assault brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces are successfully conducting mobile defense in Bakhmut. Units of the 53rd and 110th separate motorized brigades, and the 36th separate marine brigade are successfully defending in Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces have repelled Russian troops from positions west of Mykilske to the outskirts of the settlement, and units of the 35th separate marine brigade have repelled enemy attacks in the area of Maryinka.

Change in enemy disposition:

• In the Siversky direction, in the area of Kreminna, there are enemy units of the 88th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy launched a missile strike using the TOS-1A on the positions of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade and the Georgian Legion in the area of the Bakhmut Children’s Hospital; both units suffered significant losses.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Defense Forces are progressing in targeting and destroying the enemy’s rear facilities across the entire operational zone. These efforts are aimed at creating favorable conditions for launching a counteroffensive.
• Russian forces have mostly suspended their offensive operations on the entire theater of military operations, indicating a possible shift to a defensive posture. Resource accumulation, particularly of ammunition and fuel, is ongoing.
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces must make efforts to strengthen their air defense system with means capable of intercepting aircraft at medium and high altitudes and distances of about 80-90 km, and deploy a sufficient number of GLONASS and GPS jamming devices in the tactical zone.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• On May 6th, there were 6 enemy ships patrolling areas near the coast of Crimea. There were no “Kalibr” missile carriers among them.
• On May 6th, the enemy’s air defense systems in Crimea were activated again, supposedly to counter drones. One such incident reportedly occurred in Sevastopol near Kozacha Bay.

There were also reports of an alleged interception of missiles from the Ukrainian missile system “Grom-2” in the Alushta area. In addition, there have been more frequent reports of “unexplained explosions” in occupied Crimea and southern Russia, such as two recent attacks on oil refineries in the Krasnodar region and Taman. These refineries supply fuel, including to the Black Sea Fleet.

• The enemy’s aviation continues flights over the sea from the Crimean airfields Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. Seven fighter jets from the Saki and Belbek airfields were involved in monitoring the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Air situation control and operational-tactical aviation management over the Azov Sea were carried out by the A-50U and Il-22 airborne early warning and control aircraft.

“The Grain Initiative”

• Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the UN have failed to reach an agreement allowing new ships to transport grain under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, said UN representative Farhan Haq on Friday.
• Turkey, the UN, Russia, and Ukraine signed an agreement in Istanbul last July to resume grain exports from three Ukrainian Black Sea ports that were halted after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2022. The agreement expires on May 18.
• Under this agreement, Ukraine was able to export around 29.5 million tons of agricultural products, including 14.9 million tons of corn and 8.1 million tons of wheat.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 06.05.23

Personnel – almost 193,770 people (+560);

Tanks – 3,717 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,238 (+14);

Artillery systems – 2,992 (+14)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 552 (+2); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 306 (+2); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,936 (+20); Aircraft – 308 (0);

Helicopters – 294 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,554 (+14); Intercepted cruise missiles – 947 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

Ukraine has secured the return of 45 Special Operations Detachment “Azov” warriors captured during the Mariupol battle last spring. The returning POWs include thirty-five privates and sergeants and ten officers. As a part of the swap, Kyiv has reportedly released three Russian pilots. The Azov Battalion was formed after the illegal annexation of Crimea and the start of the proxy war on Donbas nine years ago. It played a crucial role in defending Mariupol in 2014 and the heroic defense of the city of Mariupol and Azovstal. The Russian propaganda machine has been demonizing the Azov Battalion for years, portraying it as “Nazi” and committing “crimes.” Those propaganda narratives are still being echoed by pro-Russian foreign bloggers, usually with doctored photos and made-up facts. Russia’s proxies in Donetsk were dreaming of organizing a public trial, which Moscow’s masters abandoned.

International diplomatic aspect

“Vladimir Putin told me in 2011 — three years before he took Crimea — that he did not agree with the agreement I made with Boris Yeltsin. He said… ’I don’t agree with it. And I do not support it. And I am not bound by it.’ And I knew from that day forward it was just a matter of time,” former U.S. President Bill Clinton revealed to the FT. Though Boris Yeltsin is still being seen in the West as a democrat, he cherished hegemonic plans as well. “I ask you one thing. Just give Europe to Russia. The U.S. is not in Europe. Europe should be the business of Europeans. Russia is half European and half Asian,” Boris Yeltsin told Bill Clinton during the Istanbul OSCE summit in 1999. “So, you want Asia too?” Bill Clinton asked. “Sure, sure. Bill. Eventually, we will have to agree on all of this… You can take all the other states and provide security to them. I will take Europe and provide them with security. Well, not I. Russia will,” was the reply of the most democratic leader of Russia in modern history.

The U.S. Department of Justice is reportedly investigating the crypto giant Binance over possible violations of the Russian sanctions, Bloomberg reported. Binance may have been involved in the cryptocurrency exchange schemes that allowed Russians to transfer money, circumventing restrictions imposed on the country’s financial institutions. The company is reported to negotiate with the DOJ a settling in another similar case related to evasion of the Iranian sanctions.

The Security Service of Ukraine has indicted 170 Russian senators who supported the “accession” of the temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine to the Russian Federation. Under the Ukrainian Criminal Code (undermining the sovereignty and territorial integrity; planning, preparation, starting, and waging the war of aggression), they face up to fifteen years behind bars.

Zakhar Prilepin, a controversial Russian figure with far-right national Bolshevik views and co-founder (along with Navalny) of the national democratic movement “People,” survived an assassination attempt. An outspoken pro-war figure on social media has been spreading anti-Ukrainian propaganda through Telegram and YouTube channels with more than half of million subscribers. In a YouTube interview four years ago, he proudly confessed that a unit in Donbas he was in charge of “killed people in big numbers.” The Russian authorities claimed they captured a “Ukrainian” who had already confessed to carrying out the attack. At the same time, the Russian “National Republican Army” and “Atesh,” a Ukrainian military partisan movement, competitively claimed responsibility.

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