CDS Daily brief (07.05.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• Russian forces attacked nine regions of Ukraine on May 6, resulting in civilian casualties and injuries.
• The IAEA is concerned about the general situation in the area near the ZNPP, which is “becoming increasingly unpredictable and potentially dangerous.”

Military:

• The enemy continues focusing its primary offensive efforts in the directions of Luhansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka.
• In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy has no reserves to support the efforts of the Wagner PMC inside the city.
• The pace of advancement of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army in the area of Avdiivka has noticeably decreased.
• Russian forces have mostly suspended their offensive operations on the entire theater of military operations, indicating a possible shift to a defensive posture.
• Destroying Russian EW systems is a priority task for the Ukrainian Defence Forces to support the combat effectiveness of HIMARS and other strike systems that use GPS.

International:

• General Valery Zaluzhny thanked General Carsten Breuer, Chief of Defence of Germany, for the country’s valuable support and expressed his hope that his partners would provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets.
• Türkiye rejected the U.S. request to transfer S-400 to Ukraine. It wants F-35 program money back, while it is interested in purchasing F-16 jets and modernization kits from the U.S.
• Frontex has temporarily suspended its patrol mission over the Black Sea after a Polish plane was intercepted by a Russian fighter 60 km off Romanian airspace.
• Oxford University Russian Society is planning to hold a Q&A session with the Russian Ambassador to the U.K., which is going to be a propaganda event.
• A Berlin court ruled to allow using Russian and other (Soviet) symbols during the events dedicated to Victory Day, the major Kremlin propaganda event. The city police have filed a complaint against this decision.

Russian Attacks:

Russian forces attacked nine regions of Ukraine on May 6, according to the consolidated report of the regional military administrations.

Consequences of the enemy shelling as of the morning of May 7th

• An enemy reconnaissance drone was shot down over Kyiv Oblast during the night.

• During the night, Russians attacked Mykolaiv Oblast with 5 Kh-22 missiles. An industrial enterprise building was damaged, and an impact on open territory was recorded. No casualties were reported.
• During the past day, there were 75 hits in 16 frontline settlements of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulting in damage to private houses and cars. Fortunately, no casualties were reported.
• The enemy shelled Kherson Oblast 51 times, resulting in the deaths of six civilians and injuries to four others. Russians targeted residential areas of the towns and villages.
• In Chernihiv Oblast, the enemy carried out 7 attacks over the past day (missile launches from a drone, shelling from mortars and artillery). A residential building and a gas pipeline across were damaged in the border village of Semenivka community. There were no casualties.
• In the morning, the enemy shelled the Novoslobidska community of Sumy Oblast with mortar fire, resulting in 2 explosions. No casualties were reported.
• On May 6th, Russians wounded 5 residents of Donetsk Oblast: in New York, Pivnichne, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, and Maksymivka.
• During the night, Russians shelled Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with artillery fire, resulting in the death of a 72-year-old woman. Two locals were also injured. Seven private houses, an apartment building, and a college dormitory were damaged. A “Shahed” drone was shot down in the area of Synelnykove.
• The enemy shelled frontline towns and villages of Kharkiv Oblast over the past day. In Vovchansk, a store, a monument of the DOSAAF Aviation Center, and several private residential houses were damaged. No casualties were reported. On May 7, the Russians attacked Balakliia. According to preliminary information, a С-300 missile hit the territory of one of the motor parks, resulting in injuries to 5 people.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The enemy concentrates its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Luhansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions;
• The enemy in the Bakhmut direction has no reserves to support the efforts of the Wagner PMC inside the city;
• The pace of advancement of the enemy’s 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army in the area of Avdiivka has noticeably decreased.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• Ukrainian Defense Forces repulsed over 50 enemy attacks on various fronts.
• The enemy’s offensive actions near Synkivka in Kharkiv Oblast, Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast, and Spirne in Donetsk Oblast were unsuccessful. The Defense Forces counterattacked in the Lysychansk direction and launched a missile strike on Russian rear facilities in Rubizhne using four HIMARS missiles.
• “Wagner” PMC units have made advances in western Bakhmut. Russian Airborne Forces units conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Bohdanivka, Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, and New York, and were engaged in positional battles near the H20 highway Donetsk-Kostiantynivka. Units of the enemy’s 1st Army Corps and the 150th motorized rifle division made unsuccessful attacks in the areas of Avdiivka and Maryinka.

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Khromove and Vodyane and successfully counterattacked to the southwest of Avdiivka.

Change in enemy disposition: not identified.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy forces continued intense artillery shelling in the areas west of Hulyaipole and in Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Defense Forces are gradually moving towards the destruction of the enemy’s rear facilities across the operational zone, preparing favorable conditions for the start of a counteroffensive;
• Russian forces have mostly suspended their offensive operations on the entire theater of military operations, indicating a possible shift to a defensive posture. Resource accumulation, particularly of ammunition and fuel, is ongoing.
• Destroying Russian electronic warfare systems is a priority task for the Ukrainian Defence Forces to support the combat effectiveness of HIMARS and other strike systems that use GPS.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• As of May 7, there were 12 enemy ships at sea, patrolling areas near the coast of Crimea. Among them were four missile-carrying ships: the frigate Admiral Makarov and three Buyan-M-class corvettes.
• Russian occupation authorities claim that on the night of May 7th, the Ukrainian Armed Forces allegedly launched a UAV attack on temporarily occupied Crimea. The air defense systems were activated over the peninsula, and local residents reportedly heard explosions overnight. In particular, an “unidentified explosion” was witnessed near Kozacha Bay, located 15 km away from the center of occupied Sevastopol. The Russian Ministry of Defense officially announced that 22 attack UAVs were destroyed by air defense forces in Crimea overnight on May 7th. They traditionally blamed Ukraine for the attack. Russian media even published a photo allegedly showing one of the Ukrainian drones. They report that the UAV was forced to land in a field due to electronic warfare.
• The enemy aviation continues flights over the sea from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. Five fighter aircraft from the Saky and Belbek airfields were involved in monitoring the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea waters. Control of the air situation and management of operational-tactical aviation over the Azov Sea waters was carried out by A-50U and Il-22 airborne early warning aircraft.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.05.23

Personnel – almost 194,430 people (+660);

Tanks – 3,723 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,248 (+10);

Artillery systems – 3,010 (+18)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 554 (+2); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 306 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,952 (+16); Aircraft – 308 (0);

Helicopters – 294 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,572 (+18); Intercepted cruise missiles – 947 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

Ukraine, general news

“The general situation in the area near the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant is becoming increasingly unpredictable and potentially dangerous. I’m extremely concerned about the very real nuclear safety and security risks facing the plant. We must act now to prevent the threat of a severe nuclear accident and its associated consequences for the population and the environment. This major nuclear facility must be protected. I will continue to press for a commitment by all sides to achieve this vital objective, and the IAEA will continue to do everything it can to help ensure nuclear safety and security at the plant,” the IAEA Director General stated. Rafael Mariano Grossi expressed his deep concern about the increasingly tense, stressful, and challenging conditions for personnel and their families. At the same time, the Russians launched the forceful transfer (so-called evacuation) of residents from the nearby town of Enerhodar.

International diplomatic aspect

General Valery Zaluzhny, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, met with General Carsten Breuer, Chief of Defence of Germany. Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief thanked his German counterpart for the valuable defense assistance and expressed his hope that his partners would provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. Meanwhile, Russian MP Aleksey Zhuravlev called for the Russian air defense system to be prepared in advance for Ukraine to receive American F- 16 fighters. “There is no doubt that sooner or later Ukraine will receive the F-16, and if they do not have time to train Ukrainian pilots, although in principle this is an easy task, then they can put American pilots at the controls,” the Russian MP wrote on social media.

“The U.S. asked us to send the S-400s to Ukraine, and we said no,” Turkey’s Foreign Minister said. Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu justified such a decision for national security reasons and underlined that such a request was unacceptable as it sought to infringe on Turkish sovereignty. Meanwhile, he believes the U.S. has to pay back the money Turkey had invested in the F-35 program before it was ousted from it. Yet Erdogan’s government still wants to purchase F-16 jets and modernization kits from the U.S.

Frontex, the European Border, and Coast Guard Agency, has temporarily suspended its patrol mission over the Black Sea. The decision was triggered by the incident that occurred on May 5 when the Polish L410 Turbolet plane was intercepted by a Russian Su-35 fighter 60 km off Romanian airspace. The Polish government stated that “it was probably a planned provocation by Russia.” The recent provocation follows another one in mid-March when a Russian fighter jet forced down a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone. The Russians played fools by claiming they had nothing to with it, even after the U.S. military released footage of a Russian jet crashing into the drone.

Oxford University Russian Society plans to hold a Q&A session with Andrey Kelin, the Russian Ambassador to the U.K., on May 11. Despite the fact that the Russian government has been waging an aggressive war against Ukraine, the society still refers to it as a “humanitarian crisis” in “the Ukraine” (Russians deliberately use the definite article “the” in English and the preposition “on” instead of “in” in Russian to deny agency to the Ukrainian state). It is doubtful that Kelin will deviate from the Kremlin’s propaganda during the session. Still, the Russian Embassy and state- controlled media outlets will likely claim that he “addressed” the audience at Oxford University. The only valid reason for such an event is to create a public record for future trials of the Russian war criminals and their enablers.

The Administrative Court of Berlin has ruled to allow the use of Russian and other (Soviet) symbols during events commemorating Victory Day. The city police had initially banned the display of Russian and Ukrainian flags and symbols around Soviet memorials in Treptow, Tiergarten, and Schönholzer Heide on May 8th and 9th. However, the ban on Ukrainian symbols was later lifted. The city police have now filed a complaint against the court’s decision to allow Russian flags. Victory Day is a key propaganda event for Russia, both domestically and abroad. The Kremlin has been exploiting Germany’s guilt for the war against the Soviet Union to shape favorable policies towards Russia and undermine the interests of other [former Soviet] countries, particularly Ukraine. Since the illegal annexation of Crimea and the launch of the proxy war in Donbas, the display of Russian and Soviet flags, as well as the flags and symbols of Russian proxy forces in Ukraine, have been used to show support for Russia’s invasion and war against Ukraine.

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