CDS Daily brief (09.05.23) | CDS comments on key events

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Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• The Russian forces attacked 11 Ukrainian Oblasts over the past day.
• Ukrainian air defense destroyed 23 Kalibr and Х-101/Х-555 cruise missiles out of 25 launched by the Russian aggressor during the night.
• The Russian occupation authorities increased the number of checkpoints at the Kerch Strait Bridge, making it difficult for the Russian military servicemen to leave the peninsula;
• Mobilization of Ukrainian citizens into the Russian army in the occupied Mariupol has begun.

Military:

• The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions;
• Infantry attacks combined with aviation and artillery strikes remain the main tactic of the enemy;
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Russian forces switch to active defense tactics, trying with artillery fire to prevent possible concentration of Ukrainian troops for a counterattack.
• Additional detachments of “Wagner” PMC arrived in Bakhmut, making it possible to increase the intensity of the attacks.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue to destroy the enemy’s artillery and demolish objects in their operational rear throughout the operational zone, preparing favorable conditions for a counteroffensive.
• The Russian military has shifted to a defensive posture across the entire theater of military operations.
• Russian troops will continue to transfer military equipment, ammunition, and materiel to Ukraine in preparation for a defense operation.

International:

• The U.S. announced another security package worth $1.2 billion, while the U.K. is considering sending its air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles, according to media.
• Putin’s Victory Day speech perpetuated the parallel reality he and many Russians live in, where Russia saved the world in WWII and is doing so again, while portraying the West as aggressor that started a real war against Russia.
• This year’s military parade is a shadow of traditionally megalomaniac ones, which is a reason for its mocking on social media.
• The Russian Ambassador in Poland was blocked by ordinary people from laying flowers at the memorial cemetery of Soviet soldiers. The Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany refrained from laying wreaths and flowers at the Soviet memorial in Berlin, instead participating in a ceremony at the central German memorial for “victims of wars and tyranny” at Neue Wache.

Justice for the Russian crimes

Addressing the summit on the creation of a special tribunal on the crime of aggression against Ukraine, President Zelensky stressed that the justice system must prove international unity in justice, as it was in Nuremberg. “Unfortunately, the International Criminal Court, whose work we fully support, has no jurisdiction over the crime of aggression. This is why a tribunal is needed to complement the global legal system”, Zelensky said. The core group of countries working on the creation of the tribunal consists of 37 members, and Ukraine is working to extend the coalition. He also stressed that the initial number of countries that agreed to hold the Nuremberg Tribunal was 4, and the coalition grew to 24, which is less than the number of countries supporting Russia’s tribunal.

Russian attacks

On the night of May 9, Ukrainian air defense destroyed 23 Kalibr and Х-101/Х-555 cruise missiles out of 25 launched by the Russian aggressor. Eight missiles were destroyed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, fragments of one of them fell on a four-story building in Dnipro, injuring a civilian woman.

Over the past day, the Russian forces launched attacks on 11 regions of Ukraine.

• The northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts were shelled with mortars, barrel artillery, and self-propelled guns. Sumy Oblast was also hit by two airstrikes. Private buildings and civilian infrastructure sustained damages. 15 villages in Chernihiv Oblast remain without electricity.
• Cherkasy Oblast in central Ukraine was attacked at dawn with two cruise missiles. There was a minor fire at the place where one of the rockets fell. The blast wave also damaged the windows in the communal facility.
• In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, 19 front-line towns and villages suffered 68 strikes. 38 reports were filed regarding the destruction of residential buildings, cars and other private property, community buildings, and utility networks. A 15-year-old resident of the Matviivska community was injured.
• During the day, the Russian forces attacked 3 communities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with artillery. Civilian infrastructure was damaged. No victims from the shelling were reported.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, at least 23 towns and villages in two directions came under Russian fire. Railroad infrastructure near Solonytsivka village was damaged. Private buildings in at least 3 villages were damaged.
• During the day, the Russians shelled Luhansk Oblast 99 times, firing 475 shells.
• In Donetsk Oblast, the enemy carried out 30 shellings, damaged 32 residential buildings (three of them multi-apartment buildings), the workshop of the Novokramatorsk machine-building plant, a furniture workshop, a garage, a gas pipeline, two civilian cars, a power line, a heating network, an economic building, a church, a police building. One person was injured.
• In Mykolaiv Oblast, the Russian forces attacked the water area of the Ochakiv community. There are no casualties.
• The Russian forces shelled Kherson Oblast 46 times, firing 320 shells from various weapons, wounding 14 people, including a child. The city of Kherson was shelled 1 time.

The Russian military hit the residential quarters, as well as the building of a school, a dispensary, a boarding house for the elderly, and a village council.

Occupied territories

The Russian occupation authorities have intensified their control over those leaving the occupied Crimean peninsula via the Kerch Strait bridge, according to Refat Chubarov, the Head of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People. The number of checkpoints has been increased and individuals’ documents are being thoroughly checked, making it difficult for Russian military servicemen to leave the peninsula.

Mobilization of Ukrainian citizens into the Russian army in the occupied Mariupol has begun. The Military Commissariat has already sent the first batch of men employed by the occupation administration to the military medical commission. All these men previously received Russian passports, said Petro Andryushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol.

Operational situation General conclusion:

• The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions;
• Attacks by infantry units in combination with air and artillery strikes remain the main tactic of the enemy on the fronts of their main efforts.
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, Russian forces have adopted active defense tactics and are using artillery fire to prevent the concentration of Ukrainian troops for a counterattack.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repulsed over 42 Russian attacks in different directions. Heavy fighting for the cities of Bakhmut and Maryinka continues;
• The Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensives in the direction of Bilohorivka, Khromove, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, in the area of the city of Maryinka.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks near Spirne, Synkivka, Nevske, and Makiivka.
• Russian troops carried out 29 assaults and made little progress in western Bakhmut. Wagner PMC mercenaries intensified the assault on Ukrainian positions in western Bakhmut and shelled the area. Russian troops also intensified their attack on Ukrainian positions near Bohdanivka, Chasiv Yar, and Orikhovo-Vasylivka and assault Ukrainian positions near Bohdanivka, Predtechyne, and Ivanivske.
• The Russian military fired at the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Shcherbaky in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Units of the 127th motorized rifle division of the 5th Army of the Eastern Military District attacked units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Charivne, units of the 503rd motorized rifle regiment of the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th Army of the Southern Military District dealt a strike near Orikhiv.

Change in enemy disposition:

• Units of the 98th airborne division of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation operate in the Torske area.

Escalation indicators:

• Additional detachments of “Wagner” PMC arrived in Bakhmut, allowing for an increase in the intensity of attacks, including increased pressure on the positions of the 127th separate territorial defense brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue to destroy the enemy’s artillery and demolish objects in their operational rear throughout the operational zone, preparing favorable conditions for a counteroffensive.
• The Russian military has shifted to a defensive posture across the entire theater of military operations.
• Destroying Russian EW systems is a priority task for the Ukrainian Defence Forces to support the combat effectiveness of HIMARS and other strike systems that use GPS.
• Russian troops will continue to transfer military equipment, ammunition, and materiel to Ukraine in preparation for a defense operation.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:

• As of May 9, there were 14 Russian ships patrolling the areas near the coast of Crimea (the number reached 18 in the morning). Four of these ships, namely the “Admiral Makarov” frigate, two “Buyan-M” corvettes, and one Project 636.3 submarine, are carriers of Kalibr missiles. They may have up to 28 “Kalibr” missiles on board.
• Last night, the Ingushetia corvette launched a missile attack with 8 Kalibr missiles on the eastern regions of Ukraine (and then returned to the base). The rockets were shot down by air defense systems of the “East” District Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
• As of May 9, Russian aviation continues to operate from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske, conducting flights over the sea. Seven fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases, including three Su-27/30, one Su-30SM, one Su- 24M, and two MiG-29K, were involved in monitoring surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The A-50U and Il-22 airborne early warning and control aircraft were responsible for controlling the air situation and managing operational-tactical aviation over the waters of the Sea of Azov. Additionally, Russian military transport aviation carried out one flight to transfer personnel to the Belbek airfield.

“The Grain initiative”.

• The Ministry of Community Development, Territories, and Infrastructure of Ukraine reported that the Russian Federation refused to register ships for entry and inspection as part of the “grain agreement.” As of the end of May 8, 90 vessels, including 62 vessels that are scheduled to be loaded, are waiting for inspection in the territorial waters of Turkey. The ministry stated that “Russia’s destructive policy makes it impossible to draw up an inspection plan in accordance with the SCC procedures, which stipulate daily approval of the inspection plan for both exit and entry by all parties.”
• The Ministry also said that Ukraine categorically does not accept Russia’s efforts to stop the registration and inspection of incoming ships, which is a crucial part of the initiative. Ukraine is now awaiting the position of its partners, including the UN and Turkey.

• In the late afternoon of May 9th, the Turkish state TV channel TRT Haber reported with reference to sources in the Ministry of National Defense of Turkey that as a result of Turkey’s initiative, vessel inspections had started again, and the “grain corridor” had started working.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 09.05.23

Personnel – almost 195,620 people (+650);

Tanks – 3,734 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,257 (+4);

Artillery systems – 3,031 (+13)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 554 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 307 (+1); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,969 (+11); Aircraft – 308 (0);

Helicopters – 294 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,618 (+4); Intercepted cruise missiles – 955 (+8);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

International diplomatic aspect

The U.S. announced another security package worth $1.2 billion to meet Ukraine’s urgent needs, which includes air defense systems and munitions. This will bring the total military aid provided by the Biden Administration since the start of the invasion to $36.9 billion.

Meanwhile, WP reported that the U.K. is considering sending its air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine. It will be in line with Rishi Sunak’s promise at the Munich Security Conference that “The U.K. will be the first country to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons.”

Putin’s Victory Day speech provided a distorted view of reality, reflecting the parallel reality that he and many Russians seem to live in. He portrayed the war of all Russians against all Ukrainians as a “decisive turning point” upon which the “future of our [Russian] statehood and our people depend on.” He blamed the West for a “real war” which has been “once again unleashed against our Motherland” while prizing Russia for “repulsing international terrorism, protecting the inhabitants of Donbas, and ensuring our security.”

“Exorbitant ambitions, arrogance, and permissiveness inevitably turn into tragedies. This is precisely the reason for the catastrophe that the Ukrainian people are now experiencing,” he showed “compassion” to “good” abstract Ukrainians while his invasion force was murdering real ones. “Any ideology of superiority is inherently disgusting, criminal, and deadly. However, the Western globalist elites still talk about their exclusivity, pit people and split societies, provoke bloody conflicts and upheavals, sow hatred, Russophobia, aggressive nationalism, and destroy family, traditional values that make a person a person,” Putin spoke in delirium. He accused the West of “forgetting who defeated this monstrous, total evil [Nazism], who stood up as a wall for their native land and did not spare their lives for the sake of the liberation of the peoples of Europe.”

In the Russian view of history, there was nothing wrong with the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, which triggered the global conflict by the division of Europe between the two brutal dictatorships; it was Russia who won the war and saved the world from Nazism and fascism with little help of the allies, if at all; Europe must be grateful for its liberation that turned into Soviet occupation until the fall of the Belin wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In his speech, Putin projected his fears onto the West, believing that its goals were to “achieve the collapse and destruction of our country, cross out the results of the Second World War, finally break the system of global security and international law, and strangle any sovereign centers of development.” At the same time, he paid homage to China by saying that they [either Russians or Putin and his entourage] “remember and honor the feat of Chinese soldiers in the battle against Japanese militarism.”

This year’s military parade is a shadow of traditionally megalomanic ones. The main reason for the scaled-down event is believed to be Putin’s concerns for his own safety. Some social media users are mocking the parade, joking that it was the reason why the Ministry of Defense didn’t provide reinforcements to the Wagner Private Military Company.

Meanwhile, Yevgeny Prigozhin published a video that might be directed either at Sergei Shoigu or Vladimir Putin. “There are people who are fighting, and there are people who once in their lives learned somewhere that there should be a reserve… instead of spending a projectile, killing the enemy, saving the life of our soldier, they kill our soldiers. And the happy grandfather thinks that he is well. And what should the country do next? If he turns out to be right, God bless everyone. But what should the country do, what should our children, grandchildren, and the future of Russia do, and how to win the war if, by chance, I just assume, it turns out that this grandfather is a complete asshole?”

While Russian Ambassador in Poland was blocked by ordinary people from laying flowers at the memorial cemetery of Soviet soldiers, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany refrained from laying wreaths and flowers at the Soviet memorial in Berlin. “The Russian Federation brought war to Europe in the 21st century and uses almost the same methods in Ukraine as Nazi Germany,” Oleksii Makeiev explained himself. “I cannot go to the Soviet memorial where Russian propaganda talks about the events 1941-45, forgetting about the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, the Russian invasion of Poland, Finland.” The Ambassador laid flowers at the central German memorial to the “victims of wars and tyranny” Neue Wache, together with the State Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany and the Mayor of Berlin.

Russian officials demanded Estonia remove a banner in the border town of Narva with the inscription “Putin War Criminal” and a portrait of the president. They’re not happy that Russians from Ivangorod across the border may see it.

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