CDS Daily brief (23.05.23) | CDS comments on key events

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

• The Russian military attacked 9 Ukrainian Oblasts over the past day;
• Due to the intensification of the Russian shelling, the Sumy Oblast authorities announced the evacuation of people;
• President Zelensky visited the frontline at the Vuhledar-Maryinka section to commemorate the Marines Day; 
• Estimated 4-5 million Ukrainians will be receiving some veteran services after the war ends;
• Russian occupation authorities obliterate Ukrainian identity in the occupied Crimea.

Military: 

• The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions;
• Russian troops have exhausted their offensive potential in Bakhmut, providing additional opportunities for the Defense Forces to develop their success on the flanks around the city;
• The departure of the “Wagner” PMC will force the Russian military command to deploy poorly prepared and equipped units to their positions;
• “Wagner” PMC has announced a two-month period of regaining combat capability in an attempt to evade potential Ukrainian counteroffensives.
• Possible operation situation developments: 
• The Russian military will gradually move to a defensive posture in the Kupyansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions.
• Russian forces will require additional reinforcement to hold Bakhmut and its flanks, resulting in a reduction of their troops in other fronts.

International:

• Ukrainian pilots are said to start their training in E.U. countries, while the U.S. may deliver F-16s in “several months at best.” Meanwhile, NATO’s chief rejects the accusation that this makes Western nations a party to the conflict.
• “We don’t enable or encourage attacks outside Ukrainians’ borders, but… it’s important to take a step back and remind everyone, and remind the world, that it – of course, it is Russia that launched this war,” DOS spokesperson stated.
• While Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed victory over the “nationalist formations,” the Russian freedom fighters assert that they are continuing their mission to liberate the Belgorod Oblast.
• DOS doesn’t believe designating Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism is “the most effective mechanism for holding Russia accountable.”
• The Hungarian PM doesn’t believe in the Ukrainian victory; Ukraine’s MFA criticized Victor Orban for whitewashing Russia’s aggression and reiterated that the “Ukrainians will continue to fight until the complete liberation of their territories.”
• German and Hungarian foreign ministers clashed over Budapest blocking the next €500 million E.U. security assistance package for Ukraine. Hungary isn’t happy that OTP, the country’s largest bank, was put on Ukraine’s war sponsors list for continuing operations in Russia, de facto recognition of Russia’s proxy entities in Donbas, and offering bargains for those sent to murder Ukrainians.

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Humanitarian aspect

Minister of Veteran Affairs Yulia Laputina estimates that about 10% of the Ukrainian population of 4-5 million people will be receiving some kind of veteran services after the end of the war.

Minister of Youth and Sports of Ukraine, NOC President Vadym Gutzait said that 293 Ukrainian athletes, coaches and physical culture workers died in the war with Russia.

Reconstruction

On Tuesday, May 23, the Cabinet of Ministers decided to allocate 588 million UAH (about USD 16,005,106) to 7 regions to implement reconstruction projects. They will be spent this year on 26 projects within the joint emergency program with the EIB. The selected projects are aimed at the restoration of hospitals, educational institutions, administrative services centers, public and cultural centers.

Russian attacks

Due to the intensification of the Russian shelling, the Sumy Oblast authorities announced the evacuation of people from the border communities of the Okhtyrka district, Sumy Oblast Military Administration said. They stressed that the situation in the region is under control.  

On the night of May 23, the Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 6 Iranian Shahed-136/131 UAVs. All of them were shot down by Ukrainian air defense. 

Russian forces shelled nine regions of Ukraine over the past day, as heads of relevant Oblast Administrations reported at 9 a.m. on May 23.

• In Chernihiv Oblast, Russian troops shelled the Novgorod-Siversky district three times with artillery and mortars. No casualties or destruction were reported.
• The border area of Sumy Oblast was shelled in the morning. Yesterday, during the day, there were 12 instances of shelling. 80 explosions were recorded. Five communities came under fire. One person sustained a shrapnel wound. A private house, a car, and a commercial building were damaged by shelling.
• In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Russian military carried out 94 strikes on 20 towns and villages. 18 destroyed civilian objects were recorded.
• In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russian forces shelled the Nikopol district with heavy artillery. Marhanets and Chervonohryhorivka communities were hit. There are no dead or injured.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, 26 towns and villages came under artillery and air strikes. Eight private residential buildings and commercial buildings were damaged in Kupyansk. 3 people were injured. Russia launched an S-300 missile attack on the Vyazove village of Kharkiv district. Two rockets hit an open area in a field. 
• In Luhansk Oblast, the Russians shelled Stelmakhivka, Nevske, and Bilohorivka. During the day, the Russians shelled Luhansk Oblast 87 times (fired 392 shells). 
• In Donetsk Oblast, Russian troops carried out 35 shellings, at least 12 towns and villages were under fire. Seven residential buildings, a shelter, power lines, a SES building, a car, and a hospital were damaged. One person died, and 5 were injured.
• In Mykolaiv Oblast at night, the air defense of the Air Command “South” destroyed two enemy attack UAVs. On May 22, Russian aggressors fired artillery at the water area of the Ochakiv community. No injuries or damage were reported.
• Kherson Oblast was shelled 61 times (fired 373 shells) during the day, and Kherson was shelled six times. A 45-year-old man died in Stanislav. Four residential buildings were damaged. Three women were injured in the villages of Kherson Oblast. At night, the Russians dropped two guided aerial bombs on Kizomys. One house was destroyed, and two others were damaged. In Mykhailivka village the technical equipment on a mobile phone tower was damaged.

Occupied territories

Valentina Potapova, head of national advocacy in education at the Center for Civic Education “Almenda,” reported that in the occupied Crimea, only 197 children were studying in Ukrainian [due to the policy of Russification]. Among them, 182 studied in Ukrainian at a school near Feodosia until 9th grade, and 15 children studied Ukrainian at a school in Sevastopol. These numbers are significantly low compared to the total student population of 230,000 in Crimean schools and 53,000 in Sevastopol schools. Additionally, only 34 children had access to preschool education in the Ukrainian language. Potapova also highlighted the complete ban on studying the history of Ukraine on the temporarily occupied peninsula. Potapova stressed that Ukrainian identity is being destroyed in Crimea and Ukrainians are being turned into Russians.

According to the Office of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the Russian occupying authorities in Sevastopol stole artifacts from the museum-reserve “Khersones Tavriyskyi” and transported them to Veliky Novgorod for an exhibition. The stolen items include Byzantine gold and various ancient artifacts made of bone, clay, and other materials.

Energy

As a consequence of Russian shelling, 16 towns and villages in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, 5 villages in Zaporizhzhya Oblast, and 5 villages along with two mines in Donetsk Oblast have been left without electricity, according to the Ministry of Energy. Additionally, due to continuous shelling along the frontline and areas bordering Russia, some consumers in Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Chernihiv Oblasts are without electricity.

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Operational situation

General conclusion: 

• The Russian military concentrates its main efforts on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions;
• Russian troops have exhausted their offensive potential in Bakhmut, providing additional opportunities for the Defense Forces to develop their success on the flanks around the city;
• The departure of the “Wagner” PMC will force the Russian military command to deploy poorly prepared and equipped units to their positions;
• “Wagner” PMC announced that it would take two months to recover combat capability. This way, it is trying to avoid the impact of a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repulsed over 30 Russian attacks in different directions. 
• On May 22, units of the pro-Ukrainian Russian volunteer corps and the “Freedom of Russia” legion, consisting of two tanks, an armored personnel carrier and nine more armored personnel carriers, raided Russian Belgorod Oblast capturing the villages of Kozinka, Glotovo and Hora-Podil in the Graivoron district of Belgorod Oblast.
• Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensives in the direction of Masyutivka and Ivano-Dariyivka. Combat clashes took place in the area of Tymivka, Kyselivka and Ivanivka. The enemy advanced near the water filtering station on the southeastern outskirts of Bilohorivka.
• There have been ongoing local battles in Bakhmut and its surrounding areas. Units of the Wagner PMC have advanced towards the T0504 highway in the southwestern part of Bakhmut. The enemy forces have unsuccessfully attacked near Hryhorivka, Bila Hora, and south of Ivanivske. Battles for the heights north and south of Bakhmut and near Khromove are ongoing. The defense forces are holding their positions in fortified areas in the western part of Bakhmut.
• Russian troops achieved minor successes southwest of Pervomaiske, but unsuccessfully attacked near Avdiivka, Novokalynove, Vodyane, Maryinka, Severne, and Novomykhailivka.

Change in enemy disposition: not identified

Escalation indicators: 

• Russian troops shelled Avdiivka with cluster munitions.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Russian military will gradually move to a defensive posture in the Kupyansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions.
• Russian forces will require additional reinforcement to hold Bakhmut and its flanks, resulting in a reduction of their troops in other fronts.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

• As of the afternoon of May 23, there were 8 Russian ships at sea. They patrol the areas near the coast of Crimea and near the Russian Krasnodar Krai. Two of them carry 16 Kalibr missiles. 
• One ship is on duty by the Kerch Strait Bridge. 
• The enemy’s aviation continues its flights over the sea from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saky, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. Five fighter aircraft from Belbek and Saki Air Force Bases were deployed to monitor surface and air conditions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The A-50U and Il-22 AEW&C aircraft were responsible for overseeing the air situation and managing operational-tactical aviation activities over the waters of the Sea of Azov.
• Russian occupiers mine the left bank of the Dnipro River and set up barricades against watercraft in the Zaporizhzhia direction. 

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 23.05.23

Personnel – almost 204,360 people (+480);

Tanks – 3,789 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,419 (+12);

Artillery systems – 3,318 (+40)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 565 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 327 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,139 (+10);

Aircraft – 309 (0);

Helicopters – 295 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 2,864 (+34);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1015 (+4);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).

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Ukraine, general news

On May 23, President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the Vuhledar-Maryinka front line to congratulate the Ukrainian defenders on the Day of the Marines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He announced the creation of a marine corps in Ukraine, new brigades supplied with modern equipment and weapons would be formed.

On May 23, the Cabinet of Ministers approved a resolution for the implementation of an “experimental project” to establish a reserve of public servants for the liberated territories. The Ministry of Reintegration announced that individuals enrolled in the reserve would undergo professional training. Priority will be given to war veterans, internally displaced persons (IDPs), individuals with previous experience in relevant positions, and those with expertise in reintegrating temporarily occupied territories. The Ministry anticipates that this reserve will facilitate the resumption of government operations and accelerate the process of reintegrating the territories following their liberation.

International

While U.S. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall stated that it would take “several months at best” to deliver F-16s to Ukraine, E.U. High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell revealed that Ukrainian pilots have already started their training in several E.U. countries. The pilots’ training “does not make NATO and NATO allies party to the conflict,” Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said amid an outcry in Moscow. 

“That’s the true value of U.S. “guarantees” that its weapons and equipment will not be used on Russian territory. We have no illusions about this,” twitted Russia’s deputy permanent representative to the U.N., referring to social media videos of allegedly “Freedom of Russia” Legion driving HUMVIEs. Besides relying on the unverified video, Dmitry Polyanskiy failed to mention that the discussions among the Americans focused on HIMARS, missiles, and other weapon systems, rather than vehicles, small arms, and light weapons. Furthermore, he appears to confuse causes and effects.

“We have made very clear to the Ukrainians that we don’t enable or encourage attacks outside Ukrainians’ borders, but I do think it’s important to take a step back and remind everyone, and remind the world, that it – of course, it is Russia that launched this war. It’s Russia that continues to launch attacks on civilians in Ukraine. It’s Russia that’s targeted schools and hospitals, and civilian infrastructure. So, it is up to Ukraine to decide how they want to conduct their military operations, but it is Russia that has been the aggressor in this war,” the U.S. Department of State spokesperson stated.

Russia’s MOD reported that it has defeated the “nationalist formations” on Russia’s territory and pushed the remaining forces to the Ukrainian territory “where they continued to be hit by fire until they were completely eliminated.” Meanwhile, the “Russian Volunteer Corps” and the “Freedom of Russia” Legion’s representatives ruled out such statements and claimed they were carrying on the liberation of Belgorod oblast. “Russia is absolutely not protected. There is panic in the Belgorod region, there is an organized evacuation in part, but mostly there is a spontaneous escape,” the “Freedom of Russia” Legion stated. “When Ukraine is free, I will carry my sword to Russia to free it from tyranny,” one of the freedom fighters with callsign Caesar said. He has been fighting since the invasion, for he believes the invader “have broken the law of man and the law of god.”

“We have not designated Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism… We don’t believe that that’s the most effective mechanism for holding Russia accountable, and that, in fact, doing so could have counterproductive – or could have counterproductive side effects in our ability to deliver humanitarian aid to the region,” the U.S. Department of State spokesperson s id. Several U.S. senators and representatives have been calling on the Biden Administration to designate Russia such a status. “We all want China to stop helping Russia, right? I have an idea. One hundred U.S. senators have proposed that we declare Russia a State Sponsor of Terrorism to deter countries like China from providing them with weapons,” Lindsey Graham reportedly told Antony Blinken recently. NATO Parliamentary Assembly stated that the “Russian state under the current regime is a terrorist one” in its resolution of May 22, 2023.

“Looking at the reality, the figures, the surroundings, the fact that NATO is not ready to send troops, it is obvious that there is no victory for the poor Ukrainians on the battlefield. That’s my position,” Victor Orban told Bloomberg. “Russia invaded Ukraine, but the question is not who invaded whom; the question is what will happen the next morning. The next morning, the fact is, more and more people will die, and there is no chance of victory for either side,” the Hungarian PM said. 

“The Kremlin should rejoice: the head of the Hungarian government removed Russia’s responsibility for its aggression against Ukraine,” Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesman replied. “The same European politicians claimed last year that Ukraine has no chance of holding out for more than 72 hours. They were wrong then, and they are wrong now. Unlike the supporters of surrendering to the enemy without resistance, Ukrainians will continue to fight until the complete liberation of their territories from Russian occupation. This is the only way not only to restore peace in Ukraine but also to guarantee the security of all of Europe,” Oleg Nikolenko added.

“Our hearts are with the Ukrainians. We understand how much has happened. But I am speaking here as a politician, and the solution is to save lives,” Viktor Orban said in his interview with Bloomberg. However, the good intentions of the Hungarian government didn’t stop it from blocking the next €500 million E.U. security assistance package for Ukraine. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock pressed her Hungarian colleague, arguing that the demand to exclude OTP Bank from Ukraine’s sanctions list makes no sense. Earlier, Ukraine’s anti-corruption agency (NAZK) put the Hungarian OTP Bank on the list of international war sponsors because the bank continues its operations in Russia and de facto recognized the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics.” Moreover, mobilized Russians, military personnel sent for war in Ukraine, as well as their families can enjoy deferment of payments on credits and loans.

Russia, relevant news

One of the largest Swiss banks, Julius Baer, informed its Russian and Belarusian clients about the freezing of their investment accounts to meet the requirements of the European depository Euroclear. “Euroclear requires that the securities held at Euroclear and the funds received from these securities be allocated to special accounts at Euroclear,” the letter sent to the Julius Baer Russian and Belarusian clients states.

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