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CDS Daily brief (29.05.23) | CDS comments on key events

Snapshot of the day:

General, humanitarian:

  • Russians launched another massive air attack on Ukraine overnight and during the day of May 29.. 
  • Today the air defense forces have successfully intercepted all 11 ballistic and cruise missiles, “Iskander-M” and “Iskander-K”, launched at Kyiv. This was already the 16th attack on the capital since the beginning of the month. 9,000 Kyiv residents sought shelter in metro stations during the night attack, and the number rose to 41,000 during the day.

Military: 

  • The enemy conducted the largest UAV attack since the start of the war, primarily targeting Kyiv. The enemy’s attempt to prioritize major cities over military facilities significantly diminishes their ability to weaken the combat capabilities of the Defense Forces.
  • The intensity of enemy hostilities around Bakhmut has considerably decreased.
  • The Defense Forces’ units operating in the Bakhmut area may take advantage of the enemy’s troop rotations and the overall decrease in the intensity of combat clashes on this front to advance their success.

International:

  • No significant foreign policy changes are expected after President Erdogan’s re-election, yet he would need to make certain adjustments. The economy will be the most crucial factor domestically and in foreign policy issues. The elections’ results won’t affect Ukraine’s interests significantly.
  • Denmark plans to increase its spending on security assistance to Ukraine by $2.59 billion over this and the following year.
  • Ukrainian individuals, private companies, and banks have donated to the needs of the Ukrainian Defence Forces $2.6 billion since the all-out invasion.
  • While a demilitarized zone 100-120 km wide inside Russia is a good idea for a post-war settlement, a Russian governor of Belgorod Oblast talks about annexing more Ukrainian territories. 
  • Alexander Lukashenko “promised” Russian nuclear weapons to Kazakhstan should the country give up its independence to Russia. Kazakh President “appreciated the joke.”

Russian attacks

Russians launched another massive air attack on Ukraine overnight and during the day of May 29. Most of the missiles and strike UAVs were directed at Kyiv. 

The General Staff clarified that overnight, the air defense forces destroyed 36 out of 40 cruise missiles X-101/X-555 and 30 out of 38 strike UAVs “Shahed-136/131”.  

Today, May 29, the air defense forces have successfully intercepted all 11 ballistic and cruise missiles, “Iskander-M” and “Iskander-K,” that the enemy launched against Kyiv Oblast. Debris fell in different districts of the city. There were 3 cases in the Obolon district and two in Desnianskyi and Dniprovsky districts. There are no critical damages reported. This was already the 16th attack on the capital since the beginning of the month.

In Kyiv, more than 9,000 residents, including 1,120 children, sought shelter in metro stations during the Sunday night attack, and the number rose to 41,000 during the day. According to the Kyiv City State Administration, this is the largest number of people who stayed overnight at the metro stations.

The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, responded to the shelling of Kyiv. “To all those who tried to intimidate us, dreaming that it would have some effect, you will soon regret it. Our response will not be delayed. Soon everyone will see it,” he said in a statement.

The consequences of the overnight attack include:

  • More than 40 enemy aerial targets were destroyed over Kyiv. In the Podilskyi district, debris pierced the roof of a residential building. There were no casualties. In several districts of Kyiv Oblast, residential buildings and infrastructure facilities were damaged.
  • One drone was destroyed over Odesa Oblast. The enemy targeted the port infrastructure in Odesa. The fire has been extinguished, and the extent of the damage is being assessed.
  • One of the missiles was intercepted over Zolochiv district in Lviv Oblast. Debris fell on a wooden utility structure, which burned down along with a nearby tractor. No casualties were reported.
  • Two missiles and one UAV were intercepted over Poltava Oblast. No damage was reported.
  • Three kamikaze drones were destroyed over Mykolaiv Oblast.
  • During the night, the Russians targeted a military facility in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, according to the Khmelnytskyi Regional State Administration. The fires at the fuel, lubricants, and combat materiel storage facilities was contained. Several aircraft have been rendered inoperable. The restoration work on the runway has commenced.

Today, May 29:

  • The enemy attacked the Pokrovska community of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. One person was killed and nine have been injured, including an 11-year-old child, according to the preliminary reports. A private house has been destroyed.
  • The Russians have struck the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast, presumably with an “Iskander” missile, resulting in 6 casualties. Among them are a pregnant woman, a 14-year-old teenager, and a 10-year-old child. A dormitory building, 2 private houses, and a gas pipeline have been damaged.
  • The occupiers dropped two aerial bombs, presumably FAB-250, on a gas station and an administrative building in Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast. According to the head of the Donetsk Oblast Military Administration, Pavel Kirilenko, as a result of a morning airstrike on the city, two people were killed, and eight others were injured.

Occupied territories: 

In Mariupol, currently under Russian military control, the transportation of stolen Ukrainian grain to Russia by trucks is once again being observed. Petro Andryushchenko, an advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol, reported this information on Telegram and shared a video confirming the incident.

Energy: 

Energy workers have lifted restrictions on the main power grid and restored the functioning of approximately 70% of the facilities damaged due to Russian aggression, according to Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, Chairman of the Board of NPC “Ukrenergo.” In an interview with Forbes Ukraine, he explained that the impact on capacity is approximate, with a temporary loss of about 40-50% of the system’s pre-invasion capacity. He also highlighted that around 43% of Ukrenergo assets, including the high-voltage transmission network, were damaged by rockets or drones during the massive terrorist campaign launched by the Russians against Ukraine’s energy system.

According to Kudrytskyi, the current priority is to restore as many power units and substations as possible before the upcoming winter. In addition, there are plans to change the energy system’s format to enhance resilience. This involves the construction of smaller-scale power plants that operate on cheaper renewable resources. The decentralization of the energy system is not only about improving efficiency but also a crucial security requirement.


Operational situation

General conclusion: 

  • The enemy is concentrating its main efforts on conducting defensive operations in all directions. They are attempting to complete the capture of Avdiivka and Maryinka, and locally improve their tactical position in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions.
  • The enemy conducted the largest UAV attack since the start of the war, primarily targeting Kyiv. The enemy’s attempt to prioritize major cities over military facilities significantly diminishes their ability to weaken the combat capabilities of the Defense Forces.
  • The intensity of hostilities around Bakhmut from the Russian side has considerably diminished.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 19 combat clashes in various directions. 
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy assault units from the 6th Army conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the vicinity of Masyutivka. 
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions northeast of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, west of Khromove, and towards Ivanivske. Russian forces achieved minor successes west of Klishchiivka, but Ukrainian Forces maintain their current positions in this area. 
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive actions near Severne and Pervomaiske. The enemy regained control of previously lost positions south of Pervomaiske but incurred losses in the process. Positional battles occurred near Vodyane.
  • On the Maryinka direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 12 enemy attacks in the area of Maryinka. 
  • On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk Oblast.

Change in enemy disposition: 

  • To reinforce the flanks of the Russian grouping in the Bakhmut area, units of the volunteer battalion “Nevsky” and the 1st Diversionary Reconnaissance Brigade “Volky” have been deployed. 
  • Units of the 87th Regiment of the 1st Army Corps are operating near Avdiivka.

Escalation indicators: not identified

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The enemy will seek to improve its tactical position ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive by carrying out localized offensive actions on specific fronts.
  • The Defense Forces will continue to shape the operational space, preparing favorable conditions for the conduct of the counteroffensive operation.
  • The units of the Defense Forces operating in the Bakhmut area may take advantage of the enemy’s troop rotations and the overall decrease in the intensity of combat clashes on this front to advance their success.

Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area: 

  • As of midday on May 29, there were 6 enemy ships at sea. They were patrolling areas near the coast of Crimea and Krasnodar Krai.
  • All nine Kalibr missile carriers (a total of 56 missiles) were stationed at their respective bases:
  • SEVASTOPOL – the frigate “Admiral Essen” and a Project 636.3 submarine.
  • NOVOROSSIYSK – the frigate “Admiral Makarov,” the corvettes “Graivoron,” “Vyshny Volochyok,” “Ingushetia,” and three Project 636.3 submarines.
  • In the Caspian Sea, there were four Kalibr missile carriers (up to 32 missiles):
  • KASPIYSK – the corvettes “Dagestan,” “Uglich,” “Velikiy Ustyug,” and “Grad Sviyazhsk.”
  • In the Azov Sea, there is one enemy ship on patrol.
  • The enemy’s aviation continues flights over the sea from the Crimean airfields of Belbek, Saki, Dzhankoy, and Hvardiyske. Six fighter aircraft were involved to monitor the surface and air situation in the northwestern part of the Black Sea waters: two Su-27/30 (Belbek), two Su-30SM, and two Su-24M (Saki).
  • The A-50U and Il-22 AEW&C aircraft were responsible for overseeing the air situation and managing operational-tactical aviation activities over the waters of the Sea of Azov.
  • Enemy military transport aviation carried out two flights to transport personnel and military cargo to the Hvardiyske airfield and one flight to the Belbek airfield (both located in Crimea).

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.05.23 

Personnel – almost 207,030 people (+430);

Tanks – 3,801 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 7,467 (+11);

Artillery systems – 3,435 (+10)

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 575 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 331 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,207 (+15);

Aircraft – 313 (0);

Helicopters – 298 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 3,054 (+61);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,056 (0);

Boats/ships – 18 (0).


Ukraine, general news

President Volodymyr Zelensky convened another meeting of the Supreme Commander’s Staff to discuss the situation on the front line, the establishment of offensive brigades, missile supplies, and the operations of the air defense forces. In his evening address, he stated, “In the meeting, we discussed not only the provision of ammunition, not only the training of new brigades, not only our tactics. But also, the timelines. This is crucially important. Timelines regarding how we will proceed. We will proceed. Decisions have been made.”

International 

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been re-elected as the President of Turkey. While this suggests no significant changes in foreign policy, yet he would need to make certain adjustments. Domestically, the country is divided, with nearly half of the population (47.86%) seeking a new leader and a fresh start. Besides plans to cement his political system design in the 2024 elections, President Erdogan will need to take decisive moves to fix economic troubles. Over the past five years, the national currency has depreciated by 77% against the U.S. dollar, and inflation ranges between 44% (official data) and 105% (according to independent economists).

Turkey seized the opportunity presented by Russia’s invasion and witnessed a significant increase in Russian business activities. The number of Russian companies established in Turkey rose 670% compared to the previous year. Turkey has become a safe haven not only for Russian businesses, luxury yachts, and rich people (with real estate sales to Russians growing by 96% in 2022) and also increased its exports. Turkey’s total electronics and electrical machinery exports to Russia more than doubled, reaching $559 million.

Ankara will be interested in beefing up energy cooperation: gas transit and possible construction of the second nuclear power plant. Thus, President Erdogan will face the challenge of managing the increasing pressure related to sanctions circumvention while balancing the benefits of trade with Russia and the need to mend relations with the West. 

Turkey will need to solve contradictions in its security policy, particularly its relations with the U.S. (F-16s procurement and modernization program, security relations with Russia, S-400, actions in Syria) and NATO (Sweden membership). Recep Tayyip Erdogan will try to advance his mediating role in Ukraine after the successful brokerage of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Meanwhile, he will continue the bilateral projects in the defense industry (joint production of UAVs, shipbuilding project, etc.). The overall improvement of Turkey’s relations with the West, which is the most evident though not inevitable policy, would also advance Ukraine’s interest.

Denmark plans to increase its spending on security assistance to Ukraine by $2.59 billion (from previously established aid found worth $1 billion) over this and the following year. Meanwhile, Ukrainians, private companies and banks have donated to the needs of the Ukrainian Defence Forces $2.6 billion since the all-out invasion.

While a Ukrainian official suggests the establishment of a demilitarized zone 100-120 km wide within Russia as part of a post-war settlement, the governor of the Belgorod region argues that Russia should annex the Kharkiv region to ensure security in his region neighboring Ukraine. The governor isn’t happy that the UAF is striking military infrastructure on Russian soil and the Russian freedom fighters crossing into Russia. Neither he connects the dots on why Ukraine is attacking the Russian military on Russian territory.

“If anyone is concerned… it’s quite simple: join the Union State of Belarus and Russia. That’s it: nuclear weapons will be available for everyone,” Alexander Lukashenko, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus “promised” Russian nuclear weapons to Kazakhstan. “I appreciated his joke,” Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev replied. He showed no interest in integrating deeper than the current Russia-dominated Eurasian Economic Union. “As for nuclear weapons, we do not need them because we have joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty,” the Kazakh leader added.

In 2022, trade between Russia and Kazakhstan reached $26 billion, with a significant portion attributed to the supply of sanctioned goods. However, trade relations with China hold greater strategic importance for Kazakhstan, amounting to $24.1 billion and experiencing a 34.1% increase compared to the previous year. Russia’s FDI in the country in 2022 was at $1.5 billion, but Chinese investments ($1.4 billion) are rapidly growing. China exports to Kazakhstan high-end goods Russia doesn’t produce (cell phones, computing machinery, apparel, machinery, and spare parts). Kazakhstan and China have resolved all territorial disputes along their 1,740 km border by 2000. 

Meanwhile, there are claims from Russian politicians, journalists, and experts suggesting that the Northern part of Kazakhstan, which has pockets of ethnic Russians, should be “returned” to Russia. However, in light of Russia’s war of conquest in Ukraine, it is not in Kazakhstan’s interest to deepen its dependence on Russia. On the contrary, Kazakhstan sees the need for means of deterrence from Russia’s actions. In 2025, Kazakhstan is set to host the second China-Central Asia Summit, following this year’s inaugural summit held in China, which was a public statement that Beijing is acquiring former Russian Empire and Soviet colonies into its sphere of influence.


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